David Ubben’s dunking of Clay Travis ($$), ladies and gentlemen:
It was a quiet week for TV analysts going out on a limb, but Fox’s Clay Travis, who has the only dedicated gambling segment on “Big Noon Kickoff,” went 1-3 on his picks again and missed badly with his two surest bets of the weekend. His lock of the week was Tennessee minus-11.
… Travis has been a fixture in this space this season mostly because no one else on television covering college football has been more certain and more wrong more often.
LOL. Shit never gets old.
Then, again, if it were a nooner, the line might only be…
Life under Coach 404:
In Collins’ tenure, the Jackets have managed wins in games that they weren’t given much chance to win. The wins over Miami in 2019 (when the Jackets were 18-point underdogs), Florida State in 2020 (13-point underdogs) and North Carolina in 2021 (14-point underdogs) have indicated their ability to manage the unexpected. (Those three teams finished their seasons a combined 15-20, which suggests maybe the point spreads misjudged Tech’s opponent.) That said, the Jackets have also slid down the hill when the point spread suggested such a fall. There have been six times when Tech was a double-digit underdog that it went on to lose by 28 points or more. [Emphasis added.]
I know which way I’m going this Saturday when the Laner comes a-callin’.
Given the random sample sizes involved, I’m not sure how useful a list of how the current SEC head coaches have done against the spread is, but if you’re interested, here you go.
All I can say after reading that is don’t bet against Sam Pittman.
ESPN betting analyst has some thoughts:
Oregon vs. Georgia (-17.5) and Notre Dame at Ohio State (-14.5) are two games that could impact the CFP landscape. What are your early thoughts on those two matchups?
Bill Connelly, ESPN Football Insider: Let’s put it this way: SP+ couldn’t possibly be higher on Ohio State — it has the Buckeyes No. 1 over Georgia and Alabama thanks to how highly it thinks of the Buckeyes’ offense — and it still projects them to beat Notre Dame by only an average of 12.8 points. Obviously if Notre Dame’s quarterback situation remains blurry, the Irish could bobble, but they have the kind of experience and physicality in the trenches that Ohio State struggled with at times last season (particularly against Michigan and Oregon). If I’m putting money on that one, I’m picking the Irish..
It’s kind of the same story with UGA-Oregon. SP+ never saw Oregon as a serious contender last season, projects the Ducks just 24th to start the year and still has them as only 13.5-point underdogs in this one. The “Kirby Smart facing his former protege (Dan Lanning)” angle makes things a bit weird, especially if Smart is as mean to former assistants’ teams as Nick Saban has tended to be through the years. For that reason, I wouldn’t put money on this either way. But 17.5 points is awfully aggressive.
Stanford Steve Coughlin, ESPN betting analyst: I don’t like both games, but if I had to lean, I would rather lay the 14.5 with Buckeyes because they can turn it into a shootout. When I look at the other game, Oregon has a ton of experience coming back on the offensive line, and Lanning has enough talent to frustrate Georgia’s offense while the Ducks’ offense attempts to shorten the game on the ground. Georgia also has to replace players on defense, with many replacements playing considerable time for the first time in their careers.
- Georgia currently sits as a 17.5 point favorite over the Ducks for September 3rd, the season-opener for both teams.
- The next game that is on the books is the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Florida on October 29th where Georgia is also a large favorite, coming in at -15.
- One week later, Georgia takes on Tennessee in Athens as 15.5-point favorites.
- Despite the Wildcats being considered some of Georgia’s toughest competition in the SEC East, the Bulldogs are 16-point favorites on November 19th.
- The wrap things up in the regular season, Georgia hosts Georgia Tech where the Bulldogs are 28-point favorites.
Georgia is a bigger favorite against Oregon in Atlanta than at home against Tennessee. Hmmm…
Some Georgia Tech nuggets for your morning pleasure:
–Most books have Clemson listed as an 18.5 to 19.5-point favorite vs. Ga. Tech in the season opener. The total is 49.5 or 50 points. The Tigers have won seven in a row over the Yellow Jackets in this rivalry. These teams will play on Monday night of Week 1.
–Ga. Tech finished last season -1,055 in net yardage and -2 in turnover margin.
–In Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings which go up to the 58-67 range at most positions, Ga. Tech only made the list for QBs at No. 59. In Steele’s ACC Unit Rankings, the Yellow Jackets are No. 9 (out of 14 teams) at QB, No. 10 at RB, No. 12 at WR, No. 11 on the offensive line, No. 12 on the defensive line, No. 13 at LB, No. 12 in the secondary and No. 12 on special teams.
–FanDuel has Ole Miss listed as a 10-point road favorite (at a -105 price) at Ga. Tech in Week 3. The Rebels host Troy in their opener and then Central Arkansas before making the trek to Atlanta.
–FanDuel has Ga. Tech listed as a 28-point underdog in its regular-season finale at Georgia.
Ole Miss -10 might be the “bet the ranch” bet of the year.
Barrett Sallee takes a look at preseason over/under win totals on SEC teams and comes up with this:
- Alabama: Pick: Over 11 (-140)
- Arkansas: Pick: Over 7 (-125)
- Auburn: Pick: Over 6 (-130)
- Florida: Pick: Over 7 (-125)
- Georgia: Pick: Over 11.5 (+150)
- Kentucky: Pick: Under 8.5 (-140)
- LSU: Pick: Under 7 (-130)
- Mississippi State: Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
- Missouri: Pick: Over 5 (-105)
- Ole Miss: Pick: Over 7.5 (-140)
- South Carolina: Pick: Over 6 (-125)
- Tennessee: Pick Over 7.5 (-145)
- Texas A&M: Pick: Under 8.5 (+145)
- Vanderbilt: Pick: Under 2.5 (-170)
He’s really bullish on Ole Miss, picking them to win ten games. He’s most bearish on Kentucky’s chances, seeing them losing five, including to Missouri. I’m not sure I’m buying either of those, but most of the rest of what he’s come up with looks reasonable to me.
What do y’all think?
You wanna talk about gaps? Okay.
Yeah, that’ll be closing any day now.