Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Westgate regular season win totals

Per Phil Steele, you can find them all here.

And this is how the SEC looks, less than a week before the season starts:

  • Alabama:  11.5
  • Georgia:  11
  • Florida:  9
  • LSU:  9
  • Missouri:  8.5
  • Auburn:  8
  • Mississippi State:  7.5
  • Texas A&M:  7.5
  • Kentucky:  6.5
  • Tennessee:  6.5
  • Arkansas:  5.5
  • South Carolina:  5.5
  • Ole Miss:  5
  • Vanderbilt:  4.5

Potentially, that’s a major looking ouch looming for Boom.

I’d probably take the over for LSU and Mizzou and maybe Mississippi State.  Ole Miss looks like an under to me.  Auburn’s the mystery here — if Gus finds his rabbit’s foot in time and gets lucky with his quarterback choice, the Tigers are good enough on defense to wind up with ten wins, but if not, eight’s gonna take some hard work.

Your thoughts?

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Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Haterz gon hate. Except when they don’t.

When y’all get done crapping on CFF for underrating Georgia’s roster, you might want to take a gander here.

With the season fast approaching, we wanted to look closely at our preseason numbers to find favorable odds on some college football futures before the season gets underway. Below are our five favorite bets to target before kickoff on August 24th.

Georgia to win the SEC (+275)

With all of the hype surrounding the returning talent at Clemson and Alabama, Georgia feels like a distant third in most preseason power rankings and an afterthought to win the SEC title. Similarly, Jake Fromm has flown a bit under the radar when discussions on the top echelon of quarterbacks occur. This may be an oversight, as his 2018 production ranks well among returning quarterbacks in the Power 5 conferences. Among this group, he had a top-five passing grade and threw an accurate throw on 67.1% of attempts which ranked second. Defensively, the Bulldogs lost DeAndre Baker but Eric Stokes appears ready to step in and be the dominant shutdown corner this team needs. Their schedule sets up as well as can be expected, and after tough road matchups against Florida and Auburn, a clear path to the SEC title game emerges — a game in which they’ll very likely face an opponent against whom they’ve had success the last two years.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Updated Games of the Year lines

For your Dawgs, from Westgate Casino, via Phil Steele:

  • Georgia -11.5 against Notre Dame
  • Georgia -7.5 against Florida
  • Georgia -4 against @Auburn
  • Georgia -13 against TAMU
  • Georgia -25.5 against @GT

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Your daily Gator

From Major Wager:

I was heavy on Florida entering last season.

I figured QB Feleipe Franks would improve under Dan Mullen, and that replacing Jim McElwain’s embarrassing strength program would boost an experienced, inherently talented offensive line. The Gators also were due some better injury luck.

That one worked out well as Florida finished 10-3.

Now, Lindy’s Sports (No. 6), Athlon Sports (No. 8), Street & Smith (No. 8) and Phil Steele (No. 10) all project the Gators as a top 10 team and a College Football Playoff contender in 2019.

To that, I say not so fast.

Florida was fortunate to finish 3-0 in one-possession games against Mississippi State, LSU and South Carolina.

The Gators also had tremendous turnover luck, recovering 21 of 33 fumbles (63.6 percent), leading to a plus-12 turnover margin, the team’s best mark since 2012 and tied for seventh nationally.

That’s unlikely to happen again.

Then look at the schedule.

Florida figures to get revenge on Kentucky, which finally broke through in 2018. But Georgia is a monster, as is LSU in Baton Rouge. Tennessee, Florida State and Auburn could be much improved. A game at Missouri isn’t a guarantee.

Plus, the Gators replace a home game against Colorado State with a neutral-site game against a Miami team that also should be much better than it was in 2018.

Florida ranks No. 6 nationally in the 247Sports five-year recruiting rankings. But Georgia (No. 2), LSU (No. 3), Auburn (No. 7), Florida State (No. 15), Tennessee (No. 17), South Carolina (No. 19) and Miami (No. 23) are right there.

Mullen has done an excellent job in his career of beating lesser talented teams, but he’s struggled against ranked opponents with similar or better talent.

Five Florida players left early for the NFL draft. The team also lost transfers in buckets, and must rebuild its offensive line.

Depth could be a significant issue if Florida faces injuries.

The Play: BetOnline lists Florida’s season win total at 9, with significant juice on the under at -125. That’s not enough value for me to play. But if I can find a friend who really believes in the Gators, I’d be happy to bet on Florida not finishing inside the final Associated Press Top 10 this season.

You always look for the underlying reasons in a team’s big swing in record from one season to the next.  There is no doubt Mullen deserves credit for things like cleaning up the toxic shape McElwain left the program in and Franks’ improvement, such as it was.  But that turnover margin number catches my eye, big time, as well.  (It was minus-3 in 2017.)  Gators, ignore regression to the mean at your peril.

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Filed under Gators, Gators..., What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Can’t get no respect.

Man, if you can’t use this to motivate your team…

Bovada’s current national futures odds have Kentucky at 750-1 to win the playoff. Yes, it’s a bit far-fetched to believe Kentucky is far enough along as a program to seriously contend for a national championship while playing in the SEC.

But here are some of the teams (with 2018 records) that Bovada’s odds have as more likely than Kentucky to do it in 2019:

  • Kansas (3-9)
  • Louisville (2-10)
  • New Mexico (3-9)
  • Northern Illinois (8-6)
  • Tulsa (3-9)

Kentucky hosts Louisville on 11/30.  I doubt either team’s national title hopes will be riding on that game, but still…

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Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

24 1/2

Vegas is saying Vanderbilt ain’t no thang for Georgia’s opener.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Friday morning buffet

Have a little nosh on me.

  • You can get odds on Nick Saban’s retirement now.
  • When Isaiah Wilson says, “I want to physically beat you,” I believe him.
  • The Pac-12 has “multiple bids of at least $750 million in hand from companies looking to become equity investors in the conference.” If one of the conditions for purchase is that Larry Scott steps down, that might be a fair trade off.
  • Maryland:  nobody could do a worse job than we did with Jordan McNair’s death.  Garden City Community College:  hold my beer.
  • The majority of SEC coaches don’t sound that enamored with the Oklahoma drill.
  • From sagging attendance and hefty debt service payments for their upgraded facilities to beer sales, a tale for our times.  Concerning a member of the conference generating the most revenue, to boot.
  • More revenue woes:  when Mizzou is bleeding money, it’s the cheerleading coaches who must pay.
  • Not a good look when three safeties, including both starters, enter the transfer portal on back-to-back days, West Virginia.
  • A sign that you’re getting old:  Mack Brown has knee replacement surgery performed by a former player.

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Filed under Big Ten Football, Georgia Football, It's Just Bidness, Nick Saban Rules, Pac-12 Football, SEC Football, The Body Is A Temple, Transfers Are For Coaches., What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas