Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

I got ‘yer win totals right here.

5Dimes has its early college football regular season win total prop bets out now.  You can see a summary here.  Interestingly, no SEC is projected to win in double digits.  Here’s how they break down:

WEST

  • Alabama 9.5
  • Arkansas 8.5
  • Auburn 8.5
  • Ole Miss 8.5
  • LSU 8
  • Texas A&M 7.5
  • Mississippi State 7

EAST

  • Georgia 9
  • Florida 7.5
  • Missouri 7.5
  • Tennessee 7.5
  • South Carolina 7
  • Kentucky 6
  • Vanderbilt 3

The downside to thirteen bowl eligible teams is that it looks a lot harder for a conference team to crack the national semifinals.  And they’re paying head coaches a boatload of money to do just that.

I will say the East looks about right, although that Missouri number looks a trifle low, based on the schedule.  But I have a hard time believing every team in the West finishes with a winning record this season.

Your thoughts?

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Jinxed.

If you’ve hung around here for a while, you know I’ve been a big fan of Jerry Hinnen, going back to his days at the late, lamented Auburn-centric blog, The Joe Cribbs Car Wash.  Jerry’s since moved up to the CBS Sports beat and today he’s posted something that should make everyone here uncomfortable.

This isn’t the first time he’s pulled thatI know what he’s up to.  But if you want to take his piece at face value, there’s one particularly interesting set of facts he’s laid out I want to mention:

Three against-the-spread trends worth watching:

1. Since 2011, Georgia is 15-7-1 as a favorite of 10 points or less. If your sense of recent Bulldogs teams is that they show up when they expect to get a challenge and get sloppy when they expect to breeze, that’s not entirely wrong. (Also worth noting: five of those seven losses came in 2013, several after the Bulldogs’ roster had been wrecked by injuries.)

2. Since 2006, Georgia is 7-3 against Auburn. And one of those losses had been a surefire cover until a certain Tigers’ prayer was answered. Whether facing Tommy Tuberville, Gene Chizik or even Gus Malzahn, Mark Richt has mostly had the answers in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.

3. Since 2011, Georgia is 7-3-2 off a straight-up loss. Richt has done particularly good work the past two seasons in this department, going 5-1-1.

We focus on the brain farts because they suck, because they’re infrequent enough to stand out and because they suck.  But the reality is over the past three seasons, this program has been pretty resilient.  As Jerry notes, play an injury-free 2013 season and Mark Richt looks a whole lot better today.

But the bigger point he makes that I want to emphasize is that Georgia has more than held its own against Auburn over the last decade, regardless of who’s coaching.  I’m not saying I predict the Dawgs will take Alabama, but I’m not quaking in my boots over the thought of facing the Tigers.  So a split against the West wouldn’t surprise me at all.  How many games that means Georgia can lose in its division and still make it to Atlanta is the real unanswered question right now.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Thursday morning buffet

The chafing dishes are steaming.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Look For The Union Label, Recruiting, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Updated conference odds

Hot off the press at 5Dimes:

Alabama +300

Auburn +425

Georgia +475

Ole Miss +525

Tennessee +900

LSU +1050

Arkansas +1200

Missouri +1400

Texas A&M +1600

Mississippi State +1600

South Carolina +2600

Florida +2600

Kentucky +8000

Vanderbilt +15000

Some of that’s a reflection of divisional strength.  But the betting public sure seems to be enamored with Auburn bouncing back this year.  Boom!

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“Times have changed.”

Maybe, but money’s always talked.  And when it comes to sports and gambling, it talks pretty loudly.

In his argument, Silver cited several key cultural trends: the proliferation of legal casinos and lotteries across the country, the ease of gambling on sports in other countries like Britain (where you can bet on games on your phone), and the huge amount of money (estimated to be somewhere between $80 and $380 billion annually) that’s illegally wagered with offshore bookmaking operations by American sports fans.

Nah, I wouldn’t expect the NBA to be found on the corner tomorrow, competing with your local bookie.  But fantasy sports?  It’s already there, bro.

But Silver left out a few trends, too. “It’s not just the offshore, illegal sort of gambling,” Dennis Coates says. “It’s things like FanDuel.com.” The “daily fantasy sports” site, not technically considered gambling, allows users to effectively bet on individual players’ statistics in each game, and took in some $57 million in profits in 2014 — the same year the NBA bought a stake in the company.

If the pros manage to suck it up and swallow their qualms about gambling – there so much money there! – can we really expect the NCAA to sit idle and let all that loot pass by the schools?  Can you imagine what an officially sanctioned March Madness bracket game could bring in?

Best of all, unlike the NBA, the NCAA doesn’t have to add a presence in Vegas to make it happen.  It’s already there.

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Upset ability is upsetting.

Matt Melton looks at coaches who beat the spread and coaches who fail to cover over the last ten seasons and finds Mark Richt wanting.

Mark Richt is perhaps one of the best coaches to have never won a national title, but his last SEC championship was in 2005 and like Stoops and Beamer, his seat is becoming a little warmer.

At least with those betting on Georgia.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Early money

5Dimes has your early odds on conference champions here (h/t).

Here’s how the SEC breaks down:

2015 SEC Championship Odds at 5Dimes
Alabama +260
Auburn +400
Georgia +400
Mississippi +420
Tennessee +900
LSU +1000
Arkansas +1200
Missouri +1300
Mississippi State +1500
Texas A&M +1500
South Carolina +2500
Florida +2500
Kentucky +7500
Vanderbilt +10000

Georgia sits tied at number two, and first in the East.  Speaking of the East, Vegas doesn’t seem overly impressed with the division’s depth.

And, yes, no other school in the country matches that Vanderbilt number.  Ouch.

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