Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Point spreads and power ratings

Chase Stuart goes through a little exercise each preseason that I find useful in terms of evaluating opening betting lines.  He takes the Golden Nugget point spreads and runs them though his Simple Rating System (SRS) to rank the teams by the results.

The 2015 preseason SRS rankings are here.  And you can see Vegas ain’t buying the “SEC is dead” talk.  Five of the top ten teams, seven of the top fourteen, eight of the top eighteen and ten of the top twenty five are from the SEC.

There are seventy teams that had enough lines published to make the rankings.  Georgia plays nine of those, five being in the top twenty.

Don’t read too much into this.  As he notes, “The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.”  It matters as much as you think the Golden Nugget knows what it’s doing.

Besides, it’s still July.

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Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Tuesday morning buffet

A few tasty morsels I scrounged up for your morning enjoyment:

  • While some of this piece by Dean Legge is over the top, it’s worth reading to the end for the comparison between Mark Richt’s Georgia career and the first fourteen seasons of Vince Dooley’s.
  • The NCAA, bastion of amateurism, announces it will give $18.9 million to schools to help pay for cost of attendance stipends.  That should make for some fun questioning in somebody’s antitrust case.
  • Seven Georgia players are named to the media’s preseason All-SEC teams.
  • Between the academic fraud scandal and this, North Carolina’s on quite the roll.
  • Phil Steele looks at how often underdogs win outright.
  • And Dave Bartoo looks at teams’ starting position in 2014.  Georgia did well there.
  • Did you know that the Carter-Floyd-Jenkins trio had a nickname?  I didn’t.
  • Dennis Franchione makes the curious comment that “scholarships used to be equal”.  From a marginal cost standpoint, I agree, but I suspect those who like to trumpet how scholarships are full-blown compensation for student-athletes might not.
  • Nice job in the ACC media guide by some disgruntled human being.

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Filed under ACC Football, Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, Stats Geek!, The NCAA, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Against all odds

Today’s half-empty/half-full Georgia moment is brought to you by Bovada, which just posted odds on teams making this season’s college football playoffs.  The envelope, please.

Alabama – 7/4
Auburn – 3/1
Baylor – 4/1
Clemson – 9/2
Florida State – 3/1
Georgia – 4/1
LSU – 11/2
Michigan State – 11/2
Notre Dame – 6/1
Ohio State – 2/5
Oklahoma – 8/1
Oregon – 3/1
TCU – 7/5
UCLA – 6/1
USC – 3/1

Georgia’s on the list, which is good.  But it’s only got the eighth-best odds, which isn’t so good.

Then again, there are three SEC West teams on that sucker, and we know that ain’t happening.

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All in, Vegas style

Look at the money falling on Auburn!

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Adding up the Golden Nugget numbers

So, based on who’s favored and who’s not, how would those Golden Nugget lines on SEC teams play out?  al.com has your answers.  (Order based on favored-underdog-toss up.)

  • Alabama:  8-0-1
  • Georgia:  4-0-2
  • LSU:  7-1-1
  • Missouri:  5-2
  • Auburn:  5-3-1
  • Ole Miss:  4-2-1
  • Tennessee:  4-2-1
  • Arkansas:  4-4
  • Texas A&M:  3-5
  • South Carolina:  1-5
  • Vanderbilt:  0-1
  • Kentucky 0-2
  • Mississippi State:  0-6
  • Florida:  0-7

First impression?  Vegas is a lot less worried about this not being the Year of the Quarterback than we are.

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Golden Nugget individual game lines are out…

… and some of Georgia’s numbers may surprise you.

  • South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs (-11)
  • Alabama Crimson Tide at Georgia Bulldogs (Pick)
  • Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (Pick)
  • Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-8.5)
  • Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-12) in Jacksonville
  • Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers (Pick)
  • Georgia Bulldogs (-1) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Were that Alabama-Georgia line to hold up ’til game day, it would be the first time in something like seventy games in which the Tide didn’t enter a game as the favorite.

That’s not the weirdest to me, though.  Tennessee is getting some crazy love at home – a home pick ’em against Georgia and a three-point favorite against Oklahoma, for starters.  But the Vols are still listed as a ten-point dog in Tuscaloosa.

Oh, and that Tech line?  FSU is a one-point underdog in Atlanta.

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Is the 2015 Big Ten going to be Jim Delany’s lousy reality TV show?

I don’t know if the SEC East is catching up to the West or not, but based on these odds for winning a conference championship, it’s a damned sight closer to parity than anything the Big Ten’s got going for it.

The programming question for the Big Ten Network:  how soon do you start talking up the national championship?

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Filed under Big Ten Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas