Hey, if you can’t trust an Auburn man to give you an unbiased look at a Georgia-Alabama game, who can you trust?
Along those lines, Jerry Hinnen contributes a couple of interesting data points. The first is an advanced stat.
Advantage Georgia — explosive plays: So if the Bulldogs allowed 3.4 yards more per play to ULM than Alabama did, surely their net per-play advantage vs. the Warhawks wouldn’t have been close to the Tide’s, right? Nope: while the Tide trudged along to just 4.5 yards per play vs. ULM, Georgia went for 8.4 — meaning their net per-play number against the Warhawks finished at plus-3.8 to Alabama’s plus-3.3. And led by Chubb’s ridiculous per-carry numbers — 8.44 yards across 71 attempts — the Bulldogs’ explosiveness didn’t end there; for the season, Georgia’s second in FBS yards per play, tied for first in points per-play, and — of you’re the advanced-stats type — 13th in Bill Connelly’s IsoPPP, an explosiveness measure. Alabama? They’re 67th in IsoPPP, 62nd in yards-per-play.
And on defense, though the advanced stats suggest Georgia might be vulnerable to giving up the occasional big running play, the struggling Tide aerial attack seems as likely to yield a big play for the Bulldogs as for Lane Kiffin’s offense. Jeremy Pruitt’s secondary has allowed just one touchdown pass in its last three games, and none longer than 29 yards all season; meanwhile, the six interceptions thrown by Alabama quarterbacks ties for the 11th-most nationally.
And he’s got a counter to that Vegas take on the two schools’ records against P5 teams.
… recently, Georgia’s been just fine in the biggest games on its schedule, going 15-7-1 against the spread since 2011 as a favorite of fewer than 10 points. Meanwhile, Alabama’s just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games vs. Power Five opponents, and a poor-by-its-lofty-standards 11-5 straight-up.
I’m beginning to think there’s a piece of information out there to support just about any take someone has on the game.