Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Thursday morning buffet

Back to the chafing dishes, folks.

  • The NCAA refused to let Ed Orgeron speak at a charity event because… education.
  • Another day, another concussion lawsuit.
  • Latest national title odds have Georgia at 25-1.
  • Dan Wolken asks, “Why is Ole Miss going to these incredible lengths to protect Hugh Freeze?”  It’s a fair question.
  • Here’s al.com’s latest SEC hot seat ratings.
  • Can you name the five college programs that have appeared in every AP preseason Top 25 poll since 2005?  (I bet you can name the only one of those five that hasn’t played for a national title during that stretch.)
  • The NBA commissioner is struggling with the one-and-done issue.  Here’s an opinion piece that argues one-and-done hasn’t been that bad for colleges.
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Filed under Freeze!, Georgia Football, It's Just Bidness, SEC Football, See You In Court, Stats Geek!, The Body Is A Temple, The NCAA, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Vegas starts cranking some numbers for us.

VegasInsider.com has spreads for the opening week here.  The Dawgs are roughly a two-touchdown favorite against Appy State.

As for other conference teams, Florida and South Carolina are currently underdogs in their respective games against Michigan and NC State, Tennessee is a modest favorite over Georgia Tech and Alabama is minus-5.5 against FSU.

Meanwhile, the sports book at the South Point casino has announced lines for what it bills as 65 of the biggest games of the year.  Georgia appears in three of those, per the linked article, all favored:  Florida by three (!); South Carolina by fourteen; Georgia Tech by five.  (Check out the Iron Bowl line, by the way.  The betting public seems to think the Gus Bus is ready to roll this season.)

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Filed under What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Vegas looks at the SEC East and scratches its head.

You can bet eight wins for Georgia and Florida, 7.5 for Tennessee.

My first reaction is “oh, bullshit”… but on reflection, I kind of get where they’re coming from.  Fandom aside, which school of those three do you want to go out on a limb with today?

Speaking of which, it will be interesting to see how these totals change as the season approaches.

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Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Easy money

Yes, you’re reading this correctly.

Bovada has better odds for Georgia to win the national championship this season than Clemson.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Haterz gone hate.

Georgia is a 10-point home underdog to Auburn, the largest such margin in twenty years.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

+7

That’s the early Vegas line for the Cocktail Party.  I don’t need to tell you who’s getting the points, do I?

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

What those preseason point spreads are telling us.

Chase Stuart does this exercise every preseason now – generates a set of team power rankings from the early betting lines.  I find it useful, because it provides some real insight into how Vegas sets up the season before it’s underway.  It you need a reminder of his methodology, here you go:

You may be wondering, how do we know how good Alabama’s opponents are? Well, we can imply the ratings of each team in college football based on these points spreads.  I explained how to do this last year, but here is the refresher:

The system is pretty simple: I took the point spread for each game and turned it into a margin of victory, after assigning 3 points to the road team in each game. Do this for every game, iterate the results hundreds of times ala the Simple Rating System, and you end up with a set of power ratings.

Two quick notes about the rankings.

1) These are not intended to be surprise. The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.

2) These are not “my” ratings. These are simply the implied ratings based on the Vegas (or, more specifically, the Golden Nugget) points spreads; nothing more, nothing less.

And here’s his top twenty.

 

As he notes, he’s not trying to reinvent the wheel with this.  As a matter of fact, there’s a remarkable consistency at the top with others.

The top five teams based on implied vegas ratings are, in order, Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, Florida State. In Phil Steele’s top 10 rankings, he has Alabama at 1, Oklahoma at 3, at 5, Clemson at 2, and FSU at 4; in other words, that’s the same top five, just in a different order. ESPN’s FPI’s top six teams are FSU-LSU-Oklahoma-Clemson-Tennessee-Alabama. That, of course, is the same top six as these implied ratings. Bill Connelly at SB Nation? His top five was, as of February, also Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Florida State.

Along those lines, Georgia at 12 doesn’t seem that out of line.  Also worth noting is that Georgia faces five of the top 22 teams in that set of ratings.  Add in Georgia Tech, South Carolina and Vanderbilt and that’s eight of the top 48 there.  There may be more meat on those scheduling bones than we’ve admitted.

Nothing definitive, of course, but it does shed some more light on the preseason perceptions of Georgia.

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