You wanna talk about gaps? Okay.
Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas
Via FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spreads for SEC games:
- Utah at Florida -2.5
- Oregon vs. Georgia -16.5
- FSU vs. LSU -4.5
- Tennessee -4 at Pitt
- Kentucky at Florida -4
- Alabama -15 at Texas
- Miami at Texas A&M -9
- Ole Miss -10 at Georgia Tech
- Penn State -1 at Auburn
- Arkansas at Texas A&M -7.5
- Alabama -17 at Arkansas
- Texas A&M at Alabama -16
- Alabama -16.5 at Tennessee
- LSU at Florida -3
- Ole Miss at LSU -2.5
Roll Tide, baby.
I will say Florida is getting more respect than I expected. More than LSU is, anyway.
What do y’all see there?
Here they are:
I don’t get Arkansas and Auburn being on the same level, but other than that, it strikes me as being a reasonable projection. What say y’all?
Per Caesar’s Sportsbook, Georgia opens as a 15-point neutral-site favorite in its opener against Oregon.
Just imagine what that spread would be if the Dawgs had a real quarterback. (Did I do that right?)
One thing I’ve been curious to find out is if there’s a decided advantage to one side or the other when two college football teams face off against each other again in the same season. Brian Fremeau did the leg work for me on that.
Monday will be the 55th instance since 2007 of two FBS teams meeting twice in the same season. Most of these rematch situations have been in conference championship games, but there have been several bowl games mixed in as well. The BCS Championship Game at the end of the 2011 season featured an Alabama-LSU rematch that ushered in the playoff era. Of all rematches to date, the same team won both games 29 times (53.7%). Regardless of the outcome of the first game, the team favored by closing lines (per covers.com) won 79.6% of the rematch games. Compare that number with closing-line accuracy in forecasting all game winners since 2007 (74.6%), or with closing-line accuracy in forecasting conference championship and bowl game winners in the same span (only 66.3%).
Not much, in other words. Of far more interest is the winning percentage of betting favorites in the rematch. Just this side of 80% is not insignificant, especially in comparison to the overall percentage of postseason game favorites.
As an aside, if Saban is looking for more yummy rat poison, he might want to point to Brian’s conclusion:
For what it’s worth, FEI agrees with Vegas that Georgia should win on Monday. The Bulldogs had a single aberrant result in that game, but otherwise have been an exceptionally strong team offensively and defensively in all other outings this season. In terms of the metrics I track, Georgia rates among the most efficient and dominant teams of the last 15 years. It’s perfectly reasonable to say they are the measurably superior team in the matchup. It’s also perfectly reasonable to think Nick Saban’s football machine in Tuscaloosa will overcome and possibly even dominate the supposed “measurably superior” team once again. The two best teams are playing, and regardless of which team hoists the trophy, the two best teams at their best should put on quite a show.
FEI Projection: Georgia 33, Alabama 25
Thought this to be kind of interesting…
The over is just 5-7-1 in Bama games this year, but it’s 3-2 when the Tide run the ball less than 38 percent of the time, as I think they will against Georgia. It is 6-8 in Georgia games, but 2-0 (by a combined 21 points) in the games when Dawgs QBs have thrown most often. With both teams slated to throw plenty, the over is the widest side to take.
I think all the talk about the great game Brian Robinson had against Cinci means little in a week. ‘Bama didn’t waste much time attacking Georgia’s defensive front with the run in the SECCG and I don’t know why they’d change that in the rematch. Georgia’s defensive liabilities lie elsewhere and Saban’s gonna probe that until Smart proves that strategy wrong.
“This line is close, so I’d expect a huge [betting] handle on the game, Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Friday night. “It will be interesting to see if the bettors put a lot of stock behind the Alabama win in the SEC Championship Game in how they handicap this game.”
The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide each won impressively in Friday’s semifinals. Georgia crushed Michigan 34-11 in the Capital One Orange Bowl, and Alabama dominated Cincinnati 27-6 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl to advance to its sixth championship game in the last seven seasons.
“I think the public will be on Georgia,” John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, said. “Georgia got to make the last impression, and it was a very, very good one, as they obliterated a good Michigan team. Public may write off Alabama’s win over Cincinnati, thinking they (the Bearcats) never should have been there in the first place.
“Anything less than the biggest handle for a title game ever would be a disappointment in my book.”
Regardless of who wins the game, Vegas is rarely disappointed.
At least in terms of the Dawgs covering the spread tomorrow, Clay Travis delivers the kiss of death here:
I think the dudes at Eleven Warriors used to run a regular feature betting the opposite of Travis’ picks. They always finished the year making money.
Swimmingly, it appears.