Jeebus, that was fast.
Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas
If you had to guess which SEC team did best in postseason play covering the spread since 2012, which program would you pick?
I don’t know if that says more about the Dawgs, or about bettors’ expectations, but in any event, I didn’t guess Georgia.
One other betting comment of note from the linked piece:
Bronco Mendenhall won a pair of Mountain West titles and the ACC Coastal division last fall by hitching his wagon to good quarterbacks. When he doesn’t have a difference-maker as his QB1, his team’s ceilings come way down. Which brings us to Virginia’s opener against UGA in Atlanta. Mississippi State transfer Keytaon Thompson, a former Gatorade state player of the year in Louisiana, might ultimately be the man for UVA, but he’ll be embroiled in a quarterback battle throughout August.
Offensive coordinator Robert Anae went out of his way to avoid naming a starter when asked in April, and with zero reps since then, it’s hard to feel confident going up against a consensus top-5 defense in Georgia. Toss in UGA’s hiring of Todd Monken, a man who once turned Brandon Weeden into a first-round NFL draft choice, and I think this has the making of a Red and Black rout. The line is currently sitting at 17/17.5 and I would be comfortable playing this one up to 20.5 as the Dawgs look to make a statement 2 weeks ahead of their colossal crossover matchup with Alabama in T-Town.
That no spring practice stuff cuts both ways, sometimes.
PFF’s preseason power poll is based on a combination of “recruiting rankings, returning players and market information” on top of their proprietary metric.
Georgia sits fifth, one spot ahead of Florida and behind number three Alabama and number four LSU.
I do find it interesting that two fairly highly ranked SEC teams have some shoring up to do at an important position.
10. AUBURN (+3300)
Bo Nix was only the 70th-highest-graded quarterback in college football a season ago, failing to complete 57 percent of his passes or earn more than seven yards per pass attempt.
14. TEXAS A&M (+2500)
Kellen Mond, while relatively highly regarded, struggled a bit last season, earning our 48th-highest passing grade and failing to eclipse seven yards per pass attempt in 2019.
Some upper-tier SEC team is going to have a quarterback take the next step and that’ll likely be the team that makes the big jump this season. The question is, which quarterback and which team?
BetMGM has posted new spreads on a bunch of college football games. Georgia has five games among those:
Sept. 7: Georgia 17.5 over Virginia (Atlanta)
Sept. 19 Alabama 7.5 over Georgia (Tuscaloosa)
Oct. 10 Georgia 7.5 over Auburn (Athens)
Oct. 31 Georgia 3.5 over Florida (Jacksonville)
Nov. 7 Georgia 12.5 over South Carolina (Columbia, S.C.)
Nov. 28 Georgia 24.5 over Georgia Tech (Athens)
The general impression there is that the spreads appear to be tightening. Well, except for the game in Tuscaloosa.
Some other games of note, at least to my puzzled mind:
Clemson plays at Georgia Tech and is a 23.5-point favorite, which is fairly close to the spread in the Georgia game. Similarly, Virginia travels to Clemson, which is favored by 26.5; not really sure how that explains the spread in the Georgia-Virginia game. Even weirder, South Carolina is a 23.5-point underdog at Clemson.
The World’s Greatest Meteor Game lands in Knoxville this year. Florida is a 6.5-point favorite. Alabama also travels to Tennessee and the Tide is favored by 14.5.
LSU travels to Florida, where it is a 2.5-point underdog. LSU is also a 2.5-point underdog at home when it faces Alabama.
Mississippi hosts the Egg Bowl; it is favored by 3.5 points. The Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa. ‘Bama is a 13.5-point favorite.
If, like me, you could use some sort of Phil Steele-like preseason number crunch, but know it’s still several months until it’s Steele Time, this may do as a short-term fix.
It’s only twelve pages and more betting oriented than Steele’s mag, but it’s April and beggars can’t be choosers, peeps. Take what you can get.
Win totals? Did somebody ask about win totals?
How do you feel about Georgia’s over/under at 10?
Wow, check out how the early SEC lines have moved in just a week or so.
The only game on that list in which LSU isn’t a favorite is against Florida.
Florida is a 1.5-point dog against Georgia.
Alabama is a touchdown favorite hosting Georgia.