Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Sometimes, Vegas works in mysterious ways.

Bovada’s updated its odds on college football’s 2017 national championship in the wake of signing day and the results in the SEC are all over the place:  huge jumps for Auburn and Tennessee, a small one for Ole Miss and unchanged odds for Alabama, Georgia and LSU, the latter four all recognized as signing no worse than equal and in most places better than (hell, in Alabama’s case, much better than) the Tigers and Vols.

I get that this really isn’t that mysterious, that it’s simply a reflection of how the money’s flowed in over the past few days, much I would assume from fan bases that are excited over new blood.  (If so, how jaded are Tide fans these days?)  I can see why Tennessee’s odds moved, given the likely state of the East, but Auburn’s improved fortunes are a little harder to understand.

In any event, let’s see how Booch’s team deals with the pressure of heightened expectations.


Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!

I know this is about the NFL, but if you don’t think there’s a college conference commissioner out there who’s heard about its new live game data arrangement with an outfit called Sportradar and isn’t stoking his chin while deep in thought about “a lucrative new deal”, you are kidding yourself.  Besides, aren’t we always being told how much the college game could improve by emulating the pro product?

If that doesn’t offend you, then you might enjoy a couple of pieces from the Las Vegas Sun:


Filed under It's Just Bidness, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Tuesday morning buffet

A rich menu at today’s buffet bar…

  • Georgia not looking back at last year’s loss to Florida“?  I call bullshit on that.  In fact, they’d better be looking back, to make sure they don’t make the same mistakes twice.
  • Man, Texas is undoing the rebranding.
  • Iowa State’s Paul Rhoades announced the firing of his offensive coordinator to the media before telling his team, because “I wanted to get to this point in the day and address you folks, then see them and look them in the eye at 1:30 when I get that opportunity…”  Yes, that makes no fucking sense.
  • Somebody in Vegas still likes Georgia“Georgia has been the favorite in this game for the entire year until now,” Kornegay said in an e-mail on Monday. “There are three reasons why the line has moved; Florida has been playing good football all year, Georgia lost their top running back, and the public has warmed up to the Gators. In our eyes, Georgia is still a better team and should be a short favorite. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Bulldogs the favorite once again on game day.”
  • There’s the second chance at Auburn, and then there’s the second chance in Athens.
  • Before you get too upset at Jeremy Pruitt for whatever faults you find in this year’s defense, at least Georgia’s never looked this bad on a play.
  • Yeah, that’s been a problem.
  • Don’t forget that Georgia will be without Dominick Sanders for the first half against Florida.


Filed under Gators Gators, General Idiocy, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, Texas Is Just Better Than You Are., What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Place your bets.

The line against Missouri may surprise you a little.

Marc’s got a good point there.


Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Because you can never have enough numbers to digest for Saturday…

Hey, if you can’t trust an Auburn man to give you an unbiased look at a Georgia-Alabama game, who can you trust?

Along those lines, Jerry Hinnen contributes a couple of interesting data points.  The first is an advanced stat.

Advantage Georgia — explosive plays: So if the Bulldogs allowed 3.4 yards more per play to ULM than Alabama did, surely their net per-play advantage vs. the Warhawks wouldn’t have been close to the Tide’s, right? Nope: while the Tide trudged along to just 4.5 yards per play vs. ULM, Georgia went for 8.4 — meaning their net per-play number against the Warhawks finished at plus-3.8 to Alabama’s plus-3.3. And led by Chubb’s ridiculous per-carry numbers — 8.44 yards across 71 attempts — the Bulldogs’ explosiveness didn’t end there; for the season, Georgia’s second in FBS yards per play, tied for first in points per-play, and — of you’re the advanced-stats type — 13th in Bill Connelly’s IsoPPP, an explosiveness measure. Alabama? They’re 67th in IsoPPP, 62nd in yards-per-play.

And on defense, though the advanced stats suggest Georgia might be vulnerable to giving up the occasional big running play, the struggling Tide aerial attack seems as likely to yield a big play for the Bulldogs as for Lane Kiffin’s offense. Jeremy Pruitt’s secondary has allowed just one touchdown pass in its last three games, and none longer than 29 yards all season; meanwhile, the six interceptions thrown by Alabama quarterbacks ties for the 11th-most nationally.

And he’s got a counter to that Vegas take on the two schools’ records against P5 teams.

… recently, Georgia’s been just fine in the biggest games on its schedule, going 15-7-1 against the spread since 2011 as a favorite of fewer than 10 points. Meanwhile, Alabama’s just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games vs. Power Five opponents, and a poor-by-its-lofty-standards 11-5 straight-up.

I’m beginning to think there’s a piece of information out there to support just about any take someone has on the game.


Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

History, a cause for pessimism

This, on the other hand, is something that’ll have to be overcome Saturday:

The past seven times Georgia has taken on a top 15 Power 5/BCS automatic qualifier opponent as the higher-ranked team, it has lost six of them. The past nine times Alabama has entered the game as the lower-ranked team, it has won seven of them. As the saying goes, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Mindset, bitchez.  I keep saying it’s the key to Saturday.


Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Thursday morning buffet

I got ‘yer buffet right here.


Filed under Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Crime and Punishment, Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, SEC Football, The Evil Genius, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas