Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Moar win totals

Here’s a link to an ESPN article listing the regular-season win totals (not including conference championship games or bowl games) from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

You can check out the whole thing, but I thought I’d show the numbers for the SEC:

  • Alabama 11.5
  • Georgia 10.5
  • TAMU 9.5
  • Florida 9
  • LSU 8.5
  • Ole Miss 7.5
  • Auburn 7
  • Kentucky 7
  • Missouri 7
  • Tennessee 6
  • Mississippi State 6
  • Arkansas 5.5
  • South Carolina 3.5
  • Vanderbilt 3

Can’t argue too much with what I see there.  I do sense that LSU is trending up slightly, which I think is right.  With all their personnel losses, I don’t get the Vols winning six, but maybe that offense is going to make up more ground than I think.

And I don’t think it’s gonna happen, but what do you suppose the reaction in Columbia would be if Vandy won more games than the ‘Cocks?

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Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Conference only over/under win totals

Via Brett McMurphy:

What looks like a better bet, Georgia and the over, or Vandy and the under?

Also, I don’t know how to break it to South Point, but their win totals add up to 56.5.  Since there are only 56 conference wins for the taking, somebody’s definitely hitting the under.

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Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

SEC Football: Over/Under Predictions

Athlon takes a look at the O/U lines set by Draft Kings and calls ’em:

  • Florida:  9 Pass
  • Georgia:  10.5 Over
  • Kentucky:  7 Over
  • Missouri:  7 Pass
  • South Carolina:  3.5 Over
  • Tennessee:  6 Pass
  • Vanderbilt:  3 Pass
  • Alabama:  11.5 Over
  • Arkansas:  6 Pass
  • Auburn:  7 Pass
  • LSU:  8.5 Over
  • Mississippi State:  6.5 Pass
  • Ole Miss:  7.5 Over
  • Texas A&M:  9.5 Over

What jumps out at me there is Athlon doesn’t make a single call to take the under.  Either that’s a helluva case of optimism, or this year’s non-conference slate is abysmal.

In the East, I think between Tennessee and Vandy, one of those two will hit the under.  In the West, it’s hard for me to see Arkansas making a bowl game with that schedule.  Auburn, about which Athlon says “this team will only go as far as quarterbacks Bo Nix or T.J. Finley can develop and take it”, has a pretty rough schedule as well; six wins seems likely.  Unless that defense has improved more than I suspect, Ole Miss looks like it’ll be good for seven wins.

What do y’all say?

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Today, in betting factoids

Take this nugget about Georgia’s opener for what it’s worth:

Clemson hasn’t been a favorite of three points or fewer since it faced Ohio State in the 2019 CFP semifinals.

It’s not exactly end of story, is it?

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Filed under Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Random preseason lines

Just thought I’d share a few bets with y’all.

First, a little Cocktail Party action.

Kinda wonder where that line will be by October.

Here’s what Allen Kenney has to say about Clemson being an early favorite over Georgia (+3) in the season opener for both schools:

Labor Day weekend sets up some fantastic matchups this year, and this clash between the Bulldogs and Tigers tops them all.

I realize Clemson’s recruiting remains lights out, but I’m starting to wonder if the program is entering the downside of a stellar run. The reality is that Dabo Swinney’s team doesn’t have any true peers inside the ACC to keep the Tigers sharp. Meanwhile, although there’s no shame in losing in the College Football Playoff, Clemson’s last two postseason appearances ended in resounding defeats. Keep in mind, too, that opponents have compiled years upon years of intelligence on the schemes of coordinators Brent Venables and Tony Elliott now.

For its part, Georgia probably has the second-best collection of talent in the nation behind Alabama. Inserting JT Daniels at quarterback elevated its offense to another level in the second half of the 2020 season, and that should carry over this fall.

This seems to like Georgia’s time. I’ll take UGA outright.

I like his take, but I sort of want to see how the Clemson receiving corps and Georgia’s secondary shape up come August before making a final call of my own.

Finally, we’ve got South Point’s current spreads on its College Football Games of the Year.

The Dawgs, as already noted, are an underdog to Clemson, but favored in games against Auburn (+4), Florida (+6) and Georgia Tech (+21).  To give you some context to those numbers, Florida is an eleven-point dog to Alabama and Auburn is getting twelve points against the Tide.  Texas A&M is favored by a touchdown over Auburn.

The overall impression I get is that Vegas isn’t particularly swayed by Georgia’s chances, which really means the betting public isn’t.  That being said, the team really getting disrespected is LSU.

Look at these lines:  Auburn (-2) at LSU, Florida at LSU (even), LSU at Mississippi (even) and LSU (+17) at Alabama.  Apparently, there are many who think that Bo Pelini’s canning won’t matter much this season.

What numbers jump out at y’all?

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Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Odds to win the SEC, 2021

Here you go…

Tennessee at 28-to-1 is about as good a reflection of the current state of the SEC East as anything I could point to.  Sheesh.

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Opener opening line

Dawgs open as a three-point dog.

What’s your prediction on the line by game time?

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Filed under Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Alex, I’ll take Level Playing Fields for $200.

I’m sure the selection committee will take this into account when it matters.

While the AP and the Coaches polls are voted on by a group of subjective experts (they’re only human after all) the oddsmakers in Vegas put their money where their mouths are.

It may be the most realistic way to gauge which teams are poised to make a run.

Vegas’ latest odds to win the 2021-22 CFP National Championship form a predictable Top 10: 1. Alabama (+280), 2. Clemson (+300), 3. Ohio State (+500), T4. Georgia and Oklahoma (+800), 6. Florida (+2500), 7. Texas A&M (+3000), T8. LSU and Notre Dame (+3300), T10. Texas and Wisconsin (+4500).

Using this metric and still four months from the season even kicking off, there are nine Top 10 matchups on tap in 2021. Of these, a whopping six (or 66%) are SEC games. What remains are a mere two non-conference contests and one Big 12 matchup.

Alabama, Florida, and LSU are all tasked with three Top Ten opponents apiece while Georgia and Texas A&M have two such games. The only member of Vegas’ Top Ten to not have a Top Ten foe slated is Ohio State.

That seems competitive.

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Your (non-Dawg) game day post

We’ve got three after the Peach Bowl:

Screenshot_2021-01-01 FBS (I-A) Conference Schedule - 2020 - NCAAF - ESPN

And here are the current spreads, per ESPN:

Screenshot_2021-01-01 College Football Daily Lines ESPN

And brief thoughts on each:

  • No idea what to make of the Citrus, given the coaching change and all that typically ensues from something like that.  Both teams play better defense than offense, so the four-point spread in the abstract doesn’t bother me.  Northwestern gave Ohio State a decent fight in the championship game, but ran out of gas and had a disastrous time defending the run in the second half.  Cox is Cox Nix is Nix, damn it, but Auburn can run the ball and Tank Bigsby is out for the game.  Your guess is as good as mine, but I’d probably go with the Wildcats.
  • Alabama by 19.5?  And people think expanding the playoffs is going to make for better football?  Sure, man.  Take the Tide and the points.
  • The CFP meteor game ought to be a real hoot.  No matter who wins, I’m going to cringe.  Given I think Ohio State’s defense has shown some weakness defending the pass and Fields has looked just a little bit shaky at times recently, I think Clemson covers.  On the bright side, that ought to be good for at least one more comment from Dabo to chew on.

And you?

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Filed under BCS/Playoffs, College Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Bill Connelly lacks Kirby Smart’s confidence.

Before you go running off confidently predicting a sizeable margin in Georgia’s favor in the Peach Bowl, consider a couple of things Bill tweeted this morning.

Screenshot_2020-12-21 Bill Connelly on Twitter

Screenshot_2020-12-21 Bill Connelly on Twitter(1)

It may be close to heretical to suggest this, but maybe the SEC ain’t quite all that this season.  Certainly the advanced stats aren’t as enamored over Georgia’s chances in the bowl game as Vegas is.  The spread in the Fabris Pool pick ’em has the Dawgs as a 6.5-point favorite; Bill’s SP+ has Cincinnati favored by just over a point, while Brian Fremeau’s FEI has Georgia listed as about a half-point favorite.

Something to watch play out, anyway.

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Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas