Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Vegas is freaking me out, PAWWWLLL.

Check out the early point spread for the Cocktail Party.

Oy.

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UPDATE:  Moar Vegas craziness.

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Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

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I don’t know the last time Georgia was favored by four touchdowns over a conference opponent, but I can say it’s been a long time since Mizzou was that big an underdog.

Missouri, the only Southeastern Conference team without a win over an FBS opponent, is an early 28-point underdog in Saturday’s game at No. 4 Georgia (6-0, 3-0 SEC), the first-place team in the SEC East…

If that point spread stands by kickoff, it will be the largest spread for a game in which Mizzou is the underdog since 2000. That year, Larry Smith’s last as the Tigers’ head coach, the Tigers were 33-point underdogs at Nebraska…

Missouri has been an underdog by 20 points or more nine times since the 2000 game at Nebraska, according to oddsshark.com. They lost all nine games but covered the spread in four.

For what it’s worth, also according to oddsshark.com, in its last seven games, Georgia is 6-1 against the spread.

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UPDATE:

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Vegas is uncertain.

Just a quick note about one of this week’s early lines.

Note: Georgia at Notre Dame is currently off the board because Bulldogs’ QB Jacob Eason is uncertain for the game with a knee injury.

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UPDATE:  The line is out to Georgia plus-6.5 now.  Good motivation for Fromm.

34 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Georgia vs. Appalachian State: it’s not you, it’s us.

Jason Butt does an excellent job exploring the story behind the point spread for the opener.  The reality is that ASU hasn’t done all that well against P5 programs since its historic win over Michigan ten years ago.

The Mountaineers, however, haven’t had much success against Power 5 programs since that win over Michigan. Since the 34-32 victory over Michigan, here is how Appalachian State has fared against Power 5 teams:

  • 2008: Loss vs. No. 7 LSU 41-13
  • 2010: Loss vs. Florida 48-10
  • 2011: Loss vs. No. 13 Virginia Tech 66-13
  • 2013: Loss vs. Georgia 45-6
  • 2014: Loss vs. Michigan 52-14
  • 2015: Loss vs. No. 12 Clemson 41-10
  • 2016: Loss vs. No. 9 Tennessee 20-13 in overtime
  • 2016: Loss vs. No. 25 Miami 45-10

Judging by recent point spreads, Appalachian State’s plus-14.5 line against Georgia isn’t out of the ordinary. In 2015, Clemson entered the game as a 17-point favorite. Tennessee was a 20.5-point favorite in last year’s close overtime win over the Mountaineers.

Miami was only a 3.5-point favorite before blowing out Appalachian State just a couple of weeks later. Obviously, the performance against Tennessee had a lot to do with this line.

When Georgia and Appalachian State played in 2013, the Bulldogs were only 11-point favorites. It seems evident that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have respected Appalachian State a lot more since the Michigan win. But in totality, the Mountaineers have lost its last eight games against Power 5 opponents by an average of 34 points.

Hmm… maybe that’s why it’s called an upset.  However, even with that track record in mind, it’s not necessarily a stretch to be concerned about Saturday’s game, because the other side of the coin is that Georgia hasn’t consistently crushed lesser opposition lately.

When it comes to Georgia, however, it isn’t like the Bulldogs have been dominant against Group of 5 or FCS opponents in recent meetings. Here is how Georgia’s last five games against these opponents have gone:

  • 2015: Win vs. Louisiana-Monroe 51-14
  • 2015: Win vs. Southern 48-6
  • 2015: Win vs. Georgia Southern 24-17 in overtime
  • 2016: Win vs. Nicholls 26-24
  • 2016: Win vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 35-21

It’s worth noting that Georgia held only a 20-6 lead over Southern at the half. It’s also worth noting Georgia held a 35-7 lead against Louisiana-Lafayette before putting in the backups.

But in the three games it played against Georgia Southern, Nicholls and Lousiana-Lafayette, Georgia’s average margin of victory was only eight points.

Perhaps that explains Phil Steele’s attitude.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Make point spreads great again.

Once upon a time, Georgia would occasionally blow out an opponent.

I realize that Oregon State isn’t exactly a powerhouse, but it is a P5 program.  Mike Bobo’s team managed to put up more points against the Beavers than the Dawgs did last season against Nicholls and Louisiana combined.

33 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Hot and not-so-hot

The Las Vegas Sun looks at six college teams to bet on and six to bet against.  With regard to the latter,

Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets return an ACC Coastal division-high 16 starters off a team that finished last season with four straight wins including upsets over Virginia Tech and Georgia. That means they should be great, right? Not quite. Georgia Tech was extremely fortunate to go 9-4 last year. It went 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown, and ranked sixth in the nation in recovering 66 percent of fumbles. Those are both red flags where some regression should be expected. Odds-wise, Georgia Tech starts the season behind divisional rivals Miami and Virginia Tech but ahead of North Carolina and Pittsburgh. It’s debatable at best that the Yellow Jackets are better than the Tar Heels and Panthers.

Hopefully, it’s not debatable that the Jackets aren’t better than Georgia.

On a related note, this seems like a good time for my weekly reminder to those of you who still haven’t signed up for the Fabris Pool to do so now.  The invite link is right here.

7 Comments

Filed under GTP Stuff, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

My, that Kool-Aid is refreshing.

Check out how the betting public’s money has been flowing to the SEC East since the beginning of the year:

  • Georgia 25/1 (from 30/1)
  • Florida 60/1 (from 40/1)
  • Tennessee 100/1 (from 40/1)
  • Kentucky 1000/1 (from 300/1)
  • South Carolina 1000/1 (from 300/1)
  • Vanderbilt 1000/1 (from 500/1)
  • Missouri 1000/1 (from 1000/1)

Only one team in the division has seen its national championship odds improve.  Somebody out there is optimistic about the Dawgs’ chances.  Or else they’ve been reading too much Pete Fiutak.

Three Most Underrated Teams In The AP Poll

No. 15 Georgia. This is a top-ten caliber team as long as the offensive line is solid. The backfield is fantastic, the linebacking corps among the best in the country, and the talent level is there across the board.

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Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas