Category Archives: What’s Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Because you can never have enough numbers to digest for Saturday…

Hey, if you can’t trust an Auburn man to give you an unbiased look at a Georgia-Alabama game, who can you trust?

Along those lines, Jerry Hinnen contributes a couple of interesting data points.  The first is an advanced stat.

Advantage Georgia — explosive plays: So if the Bulldogs allowed 3.4 yards more per play to ULM than Alabama did, surely their net per-play advantage vs. the Warhawks wouldn’t have been close to the Tide’s, right? Nope: while the Tide trudged along to just 4.5 yards per play vs. ULM, Georgia went for 8.4 — meaning their net per-play number against the Warhawks finished at plus-3.8 to Alabama’s plus-3.3. And led by Chubb’s ridiculous per-carry numbers — 8.44 yards across 71 attempts — the Bulldogs’ explosiveness didn’t end there; for the season, Georgia’s second in FBS yards per play, tied for first in points per-play, and — of you’re the advanced-stats type — 13th in Bill Connelly’s IsoPPP, an explosiveness measure. Alabama? They’re 67th in IsoPPP, 62nd in yards-per-play.

And on defense, though the advanced stats suggest Georgia might be vulnerable to giving up the occasional big running play, the struggling Tide aerial attack seems as likely to yield a big play for the Bulldogs as for Lane Kiffin’s offense. Jeremy Pruitt’s secondary has allowed just one touchdown pass in its last three games, and none longer than 29 yards all season; meanwhile, the six interceptions thrown by Alabama quarterbacks ties for the 11th-most nationally.

And he’s got a counter to that Vegas take on the two schools’ records against P5 teams.

… recently, Georgia’s been just fine in the biggest games on its schedule, going 15-7-1 against the spread since 2011 as a favorite of fewer than 10 points. Meanwhile, Alabama’s just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games vs. Power Five opponents, and a poor-by-its-lofty-standards 11-5 straight-up.

I’m beginning to think there’s a piece of information out there to support just about any take someone has on the game.


Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

History, a cause for pessimism

This, on the other hand, is something that’ll have to be overcome Saturday:

The past seven times Georgia has taken on a top 15 Power 5/BCS automatic qualifier opponent as the higher-ranked team, it has lost six of them. The past nine times Alabama has entered the game as the lower-ranked team, it has won seven of them. As the saying goes, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Mindset, bitchez.  I keep saying it’s the key to Saturday.


Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Thursday morning buffet

I got ‘yer buffet right here.


Filed under Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, SEC Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, Crime and Punishment, The Evil Genius, Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

A big ass number

You may have noticed Georgia is a rather sizeable favorite this Saturday.  Historically speaking, that’s both good news and bad.

For South Carolina, being an underdog this large is relatively uncharted territory. Last season, the Gamecocks were two-touchdown underdogs at Auburn, but before that game, the last time they were catching double-digits on the road was 2009 against Alabama! Overall, Spurrier has been a double-digit road underdog eight times in his tenure at Columbia. He is 6-2 against the number… Georgia fans, lest you worry too much about a Gamecock win, while he is 6-2 versus the spread as a double-digit road underdog, Spurrier’s teams have won outright just once.

Like I said, I’ll be more than satisfied with a one-point win against the ‘Cocks.  ‘Course, if the Dawgs want to cover, it’s not like I’ll complain.


Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Gentlemen, place your bets.

Georgia opens as a 15.5-point favorite against South Carolina.

Easy money not to cover, right?


Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

On a lighter note…

Dave Bartoo has a slew of SEC betting trends for your enjoyment listed here.  The only one about Georgia is “GEO is 7-0 since Oct 09, 2010 after a loss on the road”, which, admittedly, I could do without hearing.


Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

So you’re saying there’s a 4.4% chance?

Here’s something that will cause a double take:  SportsLine rates Georgia as having the fifth-best chance of running the table in all of D-1.

If that’s really true, then the Dawgs’ national title odds are undervalued at 33-1.


Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas