Today, in Vegas ain’t stupid

Behold, the efficiency of markets!

The posted total for Georgia-Auburn opened at 45.5 on Sunday at Circa Sports, and it hovered at 44 on Tuesday morning.

I was preparing to recommend a play on the under, but it got hammered to 40.5 on Tuesday afternoon.

A couple of troubling trends for Saturday

I mentioned yesterday that Georgia tends to see Auburn’s best when the Tigers are still playing for bigger stakes, which, realistically speaking, they won’t be doing this year.  It seems only fair, however, to cite a couple of things that run in favor of the Gus Bus.

One is something you’ve probably heard about.

For what it’s worth, though, none of those wins have come against Georgia.

There’s also this.

Georgia perspective this weekend: In the last 20 years, there have been 10 Top 5 teams favored by a FG or less on the road vs a team ranked outside the Top 10. The 10 have gone 2-8. The only two to win – 2016 Ohio State at Oklahoma and 2009 Cincinnati at Pitt.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 12, 2019

Here’s the list of those:

Again, no Georgia there, although Auburn is on there twice, both way before Malzahn’s time.

Interesting stuff.  I don’t think any of it trumps Georgia being the team with more to play for Saturday.

An early Thanksgiving thought

Just consider this…

Odds to be next Arkansas coach via @betonline_aghttps://t.co/yfJOw3nxMu

Mike Norvell 2/1
Eliah Drinkwitz 3/1
Lane Kiffin 4/1
Bill Clark 5/1
Sonny Dykes 6/1
Mike Leach 6/1
Hugh Freeze 8/1
Gus Malzahn 12/1
Bobby Petrino 18/1
Houston Nutt 25/1

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 11, 2019

We’re lucky enough to live in a country where you can bet on the chance that Petrino or Nutt gets another shot to coach at Arkansas.  #trulyblessed

Another Georgia team travels to Knoxville.

If Tennessee is 100 times better this year than last, as Jeremy Pruitt contends, Vegas ain’t buyin’ what he’s sellin’.

Bulldogs open as 24-point favorite at Tennessee. 52.5 total.

In 17 previous #UGAvsUT games in Knoxville beginning in 1968, UGA has been favored just 5 times and never by more than 13 points. pic.twitter.com/bI9S4zLVWE

— Patrick Garbin (@patrickgarbin) September 29, 2019

Maybe it’s just a case of familiarity breeds contempt.

Monday morning buffet

Grab yourself a plate and go.

• Georgia is favored by 13 points over a top 10 team.  Think about that for a minute.
• Next season, every SEC West team faces Auburn Alabama and LSU in back-to-back games.  Weird.
• There sure seem to be lots of folks telling the NCAA “no” lately.
• Through three weeks, Georgia is the fourth best team in the county in yardage differential.
• Pac-12 officiating:  still inept, but with full disclosure.
• Son, you’re gonna need a bigger lemonade stand.
• The main reason I hope this gains legs is that I would love to see Dabo in front of a legislative committee bitching about player compensation in a moment made to be captured for the recruiting trail.
• The state of college football marketing, in less than 280 characters.

Updated Dawg odds

Evidently, the sports book money’s been flowing Georgia’s way since the start of the season, as the spreads on some of its major games have widened significantly, per Westgate LV Superbook.

Examples:

• “In Georgia’s home matchup against Notre Dame on Sept. 21, Vegas has the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 points according to Westgate. That is a two-point swing from the Golden Nugget’s original line from June, which had Georgia favored by 9.5 points.”
• “On November 2, Georgia takes on Florida in Jacksonville, Fla. While the June line from Golden Nugget had the Bulldogs as 3.5 point favorites in that contest, Westgate likes Georgia a bit more now, favoring them by 7.5 points.”
• “On Nov. 16 Georgia faces Auburn on the road and Vegas sees this one a bit differently now. While Golden Nugget had Georgia as a 7.5-point road favorite in June, Westgate initially listed them as a 4-point favorite. Now, Georgia is favored by 11 points.”

The one of those three that surprises me a little is the Auburn spread.  It’s a road game and Auburn’s defense has been impressive in its first two games.

There is one home game that has seen the spread tighten slightly.

Facing each other for the first time as SEC rivals, Georgia and Texas A&M will play in Athens on Nov. 23, with Georgia favored by 12 points, a point decrease from August.

And then there’s Tech.

To end the 2019 regular season, Georgia will play in-state rival Georgia Tech on the road on November 30. In June, the Bulldogs were favored by 20.5 points and were 25.5-point in August. Now, Georgia is listed as 24-point favorites against the Yellow Jackets…

The romantic in me would like to think that’s caused by Jackets fans who are super optimistic after Tech’s epic win over South Florida.

Second-year bump got bumped.

Small sample size, I know, but this was another interesting development from Week One:

Hat tip to @BradPowers7 for this. Year 2 Power 5 coaches went 1-13 against the spread in the opening week. Only winner was by half point. Average result was 10 points!! worse than spread. pic.twitter.com/m3FABIoVER

— Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) September 1, 2019

No doubt some of that can be chalked up to typical opening week sloppiness, but you have to wonder if more than a few fault lines were opened up.  In any event, if the second-year effect is all that (and, for what it’s worth, I do tend to give that credence), that set of results sure didn’t show it.

Don’t stop believin’.

Apparently, Dawgnation is putting its money where its mouth is.

The college football regular season is believed to be a formality, a four-month race that will inevitably end with Alabama and Clemson meeting again for the national championship.

Bettors, however, disagree. They’re invested heavily in Georgia being very much in the mix come January.

A survey of eight U.S. sportsbooks from around the nation showed that the Bulldogs have attracted just as much money from bettors as Alabama or Clemson to win the national championship — and, at some books, more.

More money has been bet on Georgia to win the national title than has been wagered on any other team at Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings. There are more bets placed on the Bulldogs to win it all than any team at William Hill’s over 100 sportsbooks in Nevada, New Jersey, Iowa and West Virginia.

Hope that ends well for all concerned.

Wednesday morning buffet

Soon, grasshoppers, soon.

• “After going 6-1 ATS as a home underdog in 2015-16, Vandy has limped to a 1-5 spread record as a home ‘dog the last two seasons.”
• This is a potentially interesting development to keep an eye on.
• ‘Bout damned time.
• Mark Schlabach predicts Georgia loses to Texas A&M in the regular season, and then turns around and beats ‘Bama in the SECCG.  I’d take that.
• That sound you hear is bookies groaning after hearing this news.
• Boy, did Dan Enos throw Jarren Williams under the bus after Miami’s loss to Florida.
• Penn State is back in court.
• Vanderbilt is the only Southeastern Conference program yet to reveal a starting quarterback for its opening game.
• Mississippi State to Vandy:  hold my beer.
• In case you didn’t know, you can bet first half lines and team totals.  Here are some for the Georgia and Georgia Tech games.

How does Waffle House taste after a seal clubbing?

Like everyone else, Vegas isn’t expecting much from Tech in the opener.

Georgia Tech is a 36-point road underdog at Clemson this week. That is the Yellow Jackets largest underdog role in modern school history (since 1980).

— Brad Powers (@BradPowers7) August 27, 2019

And Buzz has seen some pretty bad teams in the interim.