Experiencing experience

Bill Connelly continues to tinker with his analysis of returning experience.  The correlations he’s found:

With a couple years of data, here are the correlations between a percentage returning category and change in Off. S&P+ (the higher, the more correlated returning experience is with production):

  • Receiving yards returning: 0.285
  • Passing yards returning: 0.264
  • Rushing yards returning: 0.079
  • Career offensive line starts returning: 0.015

And here are the correlations between some returnee categories and Def. S&P+:

  • Passes broken up returning (overall): -0.440
  • Passes broken up returning (DBs): -0.404
  • Tackles returning (overall): -0.388
  • Tackles returning (DBs): -0.378
  • Sacks returning (DLs): -0.194
  • Passes broken up returning (DLs): -0.161
  • Tackles returning (LBs): -0.161

He finds little to no correlation between returning starters on the offensive line and a team’s offensive performance, which probably comes as a little shock to anyone who doesn’t follow Georgia football.

This is clearly a work in progress, but one that’s worth keeping an eye on, especially since Georgia doesn’t come off too unfavorably.


Filed under Stats Geek!

Redemption song

Interesting little note Marc Weiszer shares with us:

Smart, hired in December, did not sign a kicker in his first class, but did ink a punter in Marshall Long from South Rowan High in China Grove, N.C., who decommitted from Virginia Tech.

“The decision on a punter, in my history, I’ve found that you can find more quality kickers through the walk-on route than you can quality punters,” he said. “After sitting down, sharing ideas, talking to people in the NFL, people that even have experience on the college level, we felt like as a staff it was going to be harder to manufacture punting than it would be placekicking.”

So Georgia offered the 6-foot-2, 223-pound Long who averaged 46.5 yards per punt as a senior and knew special teams coach Shane Beamer when he was a Virginia Tech assistant.

Long is the No. 8 rated punter nationally by the 247Sports Composite.

Two in-state punters were higher-rated and signed elsewhere: No. 2 Blake Gillkin from Westminster School with Penn State and Anthony Lotti from West Hall with Wisconsin.

Georgia already has Brice Ramsey, a quarterback, who took over for scholarship punter Collin Barber last season.

“Brice Ramsey finished the season out punting, but (Smart) said he wanted him to play quarterback a little bit,” Long told the Salisbury (N.C.) Post. “He’d seen my tapes, and Coach (Shane) Beamer had talked to him about me. I guess he just felt good about it. I was glad they finally did pull the trigger.”

I don’t want to read too much into the tea leaves there, but it sure sounds like Richt was prepared for another season with Ramsey as the punter and that Smart has decided to put the kibosh on that.  Before we get all wrapped up with Eason as the 2016 starter, wouldn’t it be something if Chaney were able to salvage Brice Ramsey’s college career?

And before you dismiss that possibility out of hand, remember that Chaney is the man responsible for the creation of the Beyond Crompton meme.  He also made a functional quarterback out of Nathan Peterman last season.  If he’s capable of pulling those off, Ramsey’s got a chance.


Filed under Georgia Football

“There’s risk in life. There’s risk in sitting on the couch.”

Too bad the NCAA can’t afford Roger Goodell.

Then again, if he ever fell off a couch and suffered CTE as a result, he wouldn’t be much good to anybody.


Filed under The Body Is A Temple, The NFL Is Your Friend.

Justice is served.

Only in the NCAA’s world does a coach pay for strippers to dance for and have sex with recruits and players at a program he’s no longer at while two graduate transfers who came in last summer after he left in hopes of making their first NCAA tourney appearance are the ones who get punished.

Once again, you can’t help but appreciate how much the schools care about their student-athletes.


Filed under The NCAA

“Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more replay!”

For safety purposes, college football leaders have no interest rolling back the 3-year-old targeting penalty, which can result in the ejection of a player. But there are lots of discussions about how to improve replay’s often inconsistent reviews of the penalty, which are being called on the field more than ever.

Targeting flags on the field increased by 60 percent in 2015, with 115 calls made (0.14 targeting penalties per game). There were 55 targeting calls in 2013 and 72 in 2014. National officiating coordinator Rogers Redding said he doesn’t know why the targeting flags are up, adding that “the numbers sort of speak for themselves.”

Read the rest of Jon Solomon’s piece and you’ll come to the sad realization that Redding’s comment there is about as coherent as he or any conference’s officiating coordinator can sound.


Filed under College Football

Still got some catching up to do

We’re justifiably excited that Georgia landed three five-star recruits in the 2016 class, but to keep things in perspective, consider that over the last four seasons, according to the 247 Sports Composite rankings, Alabama averaged at least three five-stars per class.


Filed under Georgia Football, Nick Saban Rules, Recruiting

Give me just a little more time.

I’ve got a question for those of you bitching that Kirby Smart staying at Alabama to coach through the national title game cost Georgia on the recruiting trail with its 2016 class.

If you believe that had Smart spent the time chasing recruits for his new team instead of coaching his old one, he would have signed two or three more Dawgs, aren’t you implying that the 2017 class, which will be his focus for the next twelve months, should be significantly better?

Bonus question:  if so, logically, doesn’t that justify Smart’s decision to leave a few spots open now to use next year?


Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting