Bill Connelly continues to tinker with his analysis of returning experience. The correlations he’s found:
With a couple years of data, here are the correlations between a percentage returning category and change in Off. S&P+ (the higher, the more correlated returning experience is with production):
- Receiving yards returning: 0.285
- Passing yards returning: 0.264
- Rushing yards returning: 0.079
- Career offensive line starts returning: 0.015
And here are the correlations between some returnee categories and Def. S&P+:
- Passes broken up returning (overall): -0.440
- Passes broken up returning (DBs): -0.404
- Tackles returning (overall): -0.388
- Tackles returning (DBs): -0.378
- Sacks returning (DLs): -0.194
- Passes broken up returning (DLs): -0.161
- Tackles returning (LBs): -0.161
He finds little to no correlation between returning starters on the offensive line and a team’s offensive performance, which probably comes as a little shock to anyone who doesn’t follow Georgia football.
This is clearly a work in progress, but one that’s worth keeping an eye on, especially since Georgia doesn’t come off too unfavorably.