Bad luck and bad timing will get you eventually.

Good piece by Seth Emerson about how Georgia under Richt never seemed to get quality offense and defense running together consistently.  Here’s the telling stat, about the 2014 season:

The next year, a youthful defense was the undoing. Grantham left and was replaced by Pruitt, which led for one year to a great coaching collaboration: Pruitt and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo worked well in the meeting room and in recruiting. Both the offense and defense finished in the top 30 nationally for only the second time during the Richt era. (The other time was 2008.)  [Emphasis added.]

When you’re in the pressure cooker of a conference like the SEC, over time, consistency counts.  Especially if you never land that once in decade superstar who can carry a team by himself.

(By the way, I love this:  “And Pollack still thinks Georgia was robbed of a touchdown in the 2002 loss to Florida by the forward lateral call.”  LOL.)

48 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

48 responses to “Bad luck and bad timing will get you eventually.

  1. He’s right. It was a blown call. Not sure it would have been overturned today, but it was bad. Still we shot ourselves in the foot – DJ’s pick 6, Foster’s personal foul and, of course, Edwards’s drop. Ugh.

    On the real topic, I wish we could have seen an extended period of Bobo and Pruitt together. CMR probably would have, too. Florida screws us again with Jim Bob Duggar.

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    • Ben

      Don’t forget that false start down near the goal line.

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    • Uglydawg

      The ref made that call just because “he could”. Normally, a team gets the benefit of the doubt, but, hey…”it’s Georgia”.
      Disclosure:; I fully admit that I am convinced and paranoid that UGA has been screwed by the refs at a much higher rate, and at more critical times in critical games, than any other team in college football. I remain pissed off and OCD about it. Hell no, I ain’t forgettin’ or letting it go, even if it IS only hurting myself. And may the Bird of Paridise fly up PW’s nose.

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      • W Cobb Dawg

        Me too. Just because we’re not paranoid doesn’t mean people aren’t out to get us.

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        • Calls like this, the Quinton Dial cheap shot on Murray, and the Vandy targeting calls are the reason I think we should threaten the SEC suits with withdrawal if officiating isn’t going to be fairly monitored.

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    • I was at that game but didn’t have a great angle of the “lateral”, and I’m honestly not sure I’ve ever seen a replay of it. The thing that stood out about it to me, was it was the strangest momentum shift I’ve ever seen in a crowd. Regardless of the lateral, it was still a turnover, you’d think it would have been a big boost for us. But after the penalty was announced, the UF fans were cheering and their players were excited, and it was like we had just gotten punched in the gut. I remember saying to my buddy after the game that if Pollack had just gotten tackled there and not tried the lateral, it would have had a totally different feel, we would have been the ones jazzed up and hopefully ready to make something happen. Instead, it felt like a better play for Florida than it did for us, based on the energy in the stadium. It was just weird.

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  2. Uglydawg

    Did anyone else notice the offsides call on North Carolina on a late in the game onside kickoff against Clemson in the ACCCG? It was the most Georgia thing to ever happen to NC.

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    • Jared S.

      UNC should’ve won that game. Clemson looked like a bunch of goobers in the first half. It was the first time all season I’d watched Clemson and I couldn’t believe it was the #1 team in the nation. Failing to execute is one thing, but Clemson almost looked like it was going out of its way to keep UNC in the game. If they’d tried to give the game to UNC they couldn’t have looked any worse.

      Anyway…. I think it’s perfectly reasonable that many are nervous about UGA playing UNC the first game of 2016.

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  3. sUGArdaddy

    The ‘lateral’ was a horrific call. He misunderstood the rule and let me tell you why:

    Suppose a QB is in shotgun and hands the ball to a running back in front of him in a ‘read option’ type of play. Then, the running back bows around and throws a halfback pass. Is the play a legal play? The answer is ‘yes.’ The play is a legal play because it was a hand-off. Were the hand-off considered a forward pass, it would not be a legal play because you cannot throw two forward passes on one play. Therefore, a forward hand-off is not considered a forward pass.

    Moreover, on ‘read option’ plays, a quarterback is not granted passing yards for the gain on the play…because it’s a hand-off and not a pass. There is no such thing as an illegal forward hand-off. It is not a pass. If it were a pass, every fumble on ‘read option’ plays would be deemed an incomplete pass.

    I could go on an on. It happened right in front of me. The part that makes me so mad is that it could have been Pollack’s heisman moment. We were only 5 years removed from a defensive player winning it. Had that been the big turnaround in the game, he would have made nearly every play imaginable that season, from the South Carolina INT, a million sacks vs. UT, the INT/TD vs. Florida. Forced and recovered fumbles all over the place. I think he blocked a punt vs. Vandy. Carson Palmer won it on a 2-loss team. Had we been 12-0, he would have had a shot if that play had stood. He’d at least have been a finalist.

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  4. DawgPhan

    Wow…that seems like a pretty awful stat. I wonder what the trend is for playoff/title game participants. Figure you have to be at least top 30 in both to be in the running, right?

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  5. Snoop Dawgy Dawg

    The interesting thing about Bama’s run since ’08 is that yes they have had great depth and even better front line starters. The thing that amazes me, year after year after year after year is that they don’t see those freak injuries or suspensions. Bama is built on offensive line, smart QB play, strong defensive line and linebackers, but most importantly, strong running game.

    Now over that run, name a starting running back that was lost to season ending injury. I can’t think of one. think also of wide receiver. offensive tackle? and laughably, I’ll ask, name an impactful starter that was lost to suspension for any NCAA issue or off-field actions.

    Richt’s, and most importantly the Dawg Nation’s, bad luck over the years was just an incredible amount of All-SEC caliber players getting hurt or suspendend. I know this is exaggerated by I feel like AJ Green played a total of 11 games over 3 years. gurley maybe 15 games? 2008 lost how many all sec or all american players to injury?

    yes injuries happen and yes I live in a UGA bubble, but good lord UGA has had some incredibly bad luck in comparison to UF and Bama when on their runs in the last 10 years.

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    • I wonder if the injuries had something to do with Strength and Conditioning. Something that we stubbornly did wrong for years or something that they figured out and did right.

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    • It’s part of what Kirby has emphasized in his early pressers and a big part of why Richt rarely had both sides of the ball firing at the same time. Bama’s had injuries to its top-line players in the past, but it’s got two or three 4/5 stars lined up to take their place. It’s all about having more talented players at each position. Build the depth like Bama has and Nick Chubb going down sucks, but it doesn’t derail an entire season. This all goes back to Richt’s poor roster management from 2007-2013 that he was starting to remedy, but got torpedoed by that poor 2013 class.

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      • Snoop Dawgy Dawg

        Since it’s your name, I’d like to request an audit of that statement. What top line players for Bama have had ruinous season ending injuries since 2007? I don’t recall their starting RB missing major time with an injury. left tackle? I’ll concede DL and LB since I don’t pay that close attention to them.

        See: Jones, Julio who seems to be made of glass in the NFL, and barely missed any time at Bama.

        they aren’t just recruiting at a high level. their guys seem to avoid major injuries, especially where they actually are thin. Bama was thin at RB last year. they just were. Henry rushes 900 times and I don’t think even had a hangnail. We lose starting running backs to season ending injuries 2 years in a row. I’m not excusing Richt, this is just something I’ve marveled at over the last 10 years.

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        • When Kenyan Drake went down in the Ole Miss in 2014, Alabama still had Henry and TJ Yeldon to pick up the slack. He was a former 4 star recruit. They’ve had season ending injuries along the lines and secondary to starters just like anybody else. My point is that the guy they have at 2nd or 3rd string is better than most other schools’ starters and they can just plug them in and not miss beat. They’ve had plenty of injuries, they just aren’t crippled when one goes down.

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          • Snoop Dawgy Dawg

            it’s really not worth arguing(I don’t mean that dismissively), but Kenyon Drake was the 3rd team, guy. TJ was the starter(in name at least) and Henry was the first off the bench. it would be the equivalent of us losing Keith Marshall or Brendan Douglas this year while still having Sony and Nick healthy.

            I just did a quick look up on historical stats. they haven’t lost a starting QB or RB to injury since 2008. best I can tell they haven’t lost a #1 wide receiver to anything major either. I don’t care enough to go check their lineman starts nor defensive players, but they have had the exact opposite type of injury luck as UGA over the last 10 years.

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            • it’s really not worth arguing(I don’t mean that dismissively), but Kenyon Drake was the 3rd team, guy. TJ was the starter(in name at least) and Henry was the first off the bench. it would be the equivalent of us losing Keith Marshall or Brendan Douglas this year while still having Sony and Nick healthy.

              That’s a bold assumption that Brendan Douglas is as talented as Kenyan Drake and that kinda proves my point. There is no Brendan Douglas on the Alabama depth chart at running back. They have four Nick Chubbs at all times. They have that at every position and that’s the strategy that Saban has adopted. Sure – it’s probably fair to say that they haven’t had any serious injuries and incredible luck in that department. However, what I’m arguing (maybe not as clear as I would like) is that it wouldn’t matter because they have replacements just as good or better. Their margin of error is so much larger than UGA’s and that’s entirely due to the depth that they’ve developed by properly managing their roster and out-recruiting everybody else. If Derek Henry went down, they would have been just fine this season. That’s not a luxury Georgia had and it’s the challenge currently in front of Kirby to get the roster depth to level that can weather a Nick Chubb going down.

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              • Derek

                1) Alabama would have been far from “just fine” had Henry gone down. Drake was mediocre all season and Bo Scarborough was coming off a serious knee injury. Henry goes down and they have serious issues generating points.
                2) Alabama doesn’t have any Nick Chubbs. They have good backs, but none, including Henry, as good as Chubb. Henry just got a second round grade from the NFL and that sounds about right to me. Chubb’s knee issues notwithstanding, if Chubb comes back fully healthy, he’s a top-10 pick.
                3) Alabama has been lucky and good and deep. Henry broke his leg during his first spring, but it didn’t matter because they didn’t need him yet. If Cooper goes out last year or Henry this year, they would have struggled quite a bit.
                4) Bad luck was an issue for CMR. Between losing MM on a celebration, the tip at Auburn and the 0 points first and goal at the 2 vs. USC, the tipped pass to Conley vs. Alabama, the knee explosion at UT the past two trips, I mean its gets ridiculous just to start adding them up.

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                • We’re just going to agree to disagree here. At this point – doesn’t Saban deserve the benefit of the doubt?. It doesn’t matter who his running back, quarterback, or OC are. They just keep putting up points at school record paces. Frankly, I don’t give a shit about NFL draft ratings and whether Nick Chubb is better than Bama’s RB’s wasn’t my point. The point is that Saban has backs every bit on Chubb’s level and he has them four deep. Every single feature back Alabama’s had under Saban has been spectacular at the collegiate level and many of them have spent serious time as a backup before becoming “the man”. Not sure if you noticed – but Henry broke Herschel Walker’s rushing record on fewer carries this year.

                  Re: your last comment – sure, Richt had his fair share of bad luck, but because of his roster management practices – that margin of error was so thin that it tanked otherwise promising seasons. My entire point from the beginning of this thread has been that Saban’s practice of stocking up on talent and depth has widened his margin for error to overcome that bad luck. Clearly your mileage varies, but this has always been one of the criticisms of Richt that I find entirely fair.

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                • Derek

                  Saban has had a good starting back every year he’s been there save his first. Two won Heismans. Neither (and none) were as good as Todd or Nick. Also none of those guys had season ending injuries or significant suspensions while being the starter and we had 3 of those among two guys. Whether they could just go next man up and succeed is theoretical, because it never happened.

                  As far as Henry’s production this year, I think it proves my point: he was essential to their success. The focus it took to try and slow him down opened up the passing game for Coker and Riley and Stewart and eventually the TE in the final.

                  Much of the bad luck mentioned above has little to do with depth and is just bad luck. We were always thinner at DL and OL than any of us would like. That’s really where Alabama’s roster has stood above our own: along the LOS.

                  Depth certainly didn’t help Saban overcome Auburn’s ruining of their season with the “kick six.” Shit happens. It has consequences. CMR had far more bad luck than his fair share.

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              • Snoop Dawgy Dawg

                Derek’s comments aside, Saban’s remarkable run of luck versus Richt’s is really unarguable. you can say that the back up, in that season, could have stepped up and filled the shoes of the starter without any lapse in quality of offense, but we’ll never know because they were never ineligible nor injured.

                kenyon drake is closer to keith marshall than anything else. he’s a better 3rd string back than we had the year that gurley AND marshall were out and had to play little JJ and Douglas and the frat guy out of the stands to get a guy with a pulse. certainly he’s better than that.

                the point is that unless Saban desires to make the substitution, he’s never been forced to do that at running back. or QB. or WR. the 2013 year when we lost what, 6 starters on offense? saban has never experienced something like that, and depth has nothing to do with it.

                Saban is a better coach and better recruiter than Richt, also better at hiring coordinators.

                he’s also luckier than richt, but unlike a lucky bounce, this luck has nothing to do with preparation meeting opportunity, it’s just dumb luck that has not gone UGA’s way over the last 10 years(and much longer than that).

                and before people think i’m defending richt, had he recruited better and more depth, the impact of some of those injuries wouldn’t have loomed as large as they did.

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                • had he recruited better and more depth, the impact of some of those injuries wouldn’t have loomed as large as they did.

                  This is the exact point I’ve been trying to make the entire comment thread about why the effect of “bad luck” is minimized when you stockpile talent and depth like Saban has done and that’s something Richt didn’t do well. Nothing more, nothing less.

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                • Derek

                  …and my point is that such is nothing but an interesting theory. The only comparable bad luck that can be pointed to that befell Saban, he lost the game. That blown knees to starting RB’s would not be a problem for Saban is navel gazing. Hasn’t happened, so who knows? You can theorize that Saban could have absorbed all of CMR’s bad luck without any issue ’cause of coachin’ and hirin’ and ‘crutin’ and managin’ but its still just a theory.

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                • For crying out loud – then why does he bother ‘crutin all those 4 and 5 stars and stockpiling them if good or bad luck is all that matters?

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                • Derek

                  Who said “all”? You recruit good players to have a good team. That’s the correlation. Arguing that it is insulation against some bad luck is marginally true. Any argument that it would alleviate the instances of the extreme bad luck referenced above is very doubtful and certainly speculative. Looking to an actual instance that I can point to: the kick 6, my position holds. If you can find a similar MM, Gurley or Chubb story that was overcome by Saban’s awesomeness, find it.

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                • Again – we’ll have to agree to disagree. Every team deals with injuries or unfortunate circumstances. Injuries are a risk of playing the game and by stockpiling the quality depth, you can offset them. Richt didn’t do it nearly as well as Saban (nobody does) and it bit him in the ass.

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                • Derek

                  Every team is also covered by the press. The stories are on the internet. You could find examples if they existed. Apparently all that exists is your firmly held belief without any factual support. Personally I don’t think Saban can win a natty without CKS. Never has and thus this opinion, while speculative, immediately has more credence than your own.

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                • Personally I don’t think Saban can win a natty without CKS. Never has and thus this opinion, while speculative, immediately has more credence than your own.

                  Except that whole 2003 national championship where that’s exactly what happened. I have no clue why you got so argumentative about this, but whatevs.

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                • Derek

                  Argumentative? Me? Never. I really thought CKS was on that LSU staff. A year off…oh well. I guess I can amend it to “Saban can’t go undefeated without CKS because he hasn’t.”

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      • DawgPhan

        Alabama this year was surprisingly lucky with injuries. Basically only lost 1 starter this season. 21 of the 22 starters on opening day, started the title game. That is crazy luck. The only guy that went down was replaced by Calvin Ridley which also supports the depth statements.

        Bama was insanely lucky with injuries this season and covered their only major injury with another crazy talented freshman.

        Alabama has more talent than most everyone else. Their advantage is the quality depth across the board.

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        • Bulldog Joe

          Agree.

          Strength and conditioning played a role, but roster management issues and aggressive suspension policies were the reasons injuries had a much greater damaging effect on Georgia.

          The Boise State 2011 opener is a good example. Game 1 and we were already having to play walk-ons Jeremy Sulek and Connor Norman.

          No SEC team should put themselves in that kind of disadvantage.

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        • dudemankind

          II don’t think luck is a factor at all. As you said, they have more talent than almost anyone else. It think it is easy to argue that when your team is bigger, faster, stronger, and deeper at most positions than any other team, the injuries are less likely to pile up. It is a little easier to notice this kind of thing happen at the high school level. Ever watch a dominant program cruise into a stadium and kick the shit out of one that is struggling or in a lower classification? At games end there are usually several hurt kids on the weaker team who are getting carted off down the sidelines.

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    • Bama has had some incredible luck. How many teams overcome losing home games in November when they are the favorites (one time a 17 point favorite), yet bounce back to win the NC? Bama did it twice.

      Would they have been in the NC this season had Ole Miss not given up that 25 yard backwards lateral pass to Arkansas?

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  6. Bulldog Joe

    Collaboration between coordinators is key. It obviously wasn’t there this season.

    Honest feedback in game planning can avoid debacles like Jacksonville 2015. Two weeks to prepare with no “Gurley-like” distractions and we arrive with that game plan.

    I believe what didn’t happen in those two weeks is what ultimately led to the new coaching staff being here.

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  7. UGA85

    The interesting thing to me about that stat is that UGA did not even win the SEC East, let alone the SEC, in either 2008 or 2014. I don’t think we seriously contended for anything of import either year. Clearly, there is a lot more to winning championships, at least for us, than this stat.

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    • Will (The Other One)

      The 2014 team was in the hunt for the east technically up until the night before the Tech game.
      The 2008 team reminds me a little of the 2015 squad in that the bad losses stick out far more than the wins (though the ’08 team did beat the pants off LSU in Red Stick). That, and the whole “giving up 40+ to Bama, Florida, and freakin’ Tech” should have been enough to ditch Willie. Richt could have picked up John Chavis that offseason too (or had a better shot than he did in 2009).

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  8. Finally somebody in the media clearly pointed at such imbalance in the offense and defense strength and weakness from season to season in the past 10 years.

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  9. 4) Bad luck was an issue for CMR. Between losing MM on a celebration, the tip at Auburn and the 0 points first and goal at the 2 vs. USC, the tipped pass to Conley vs. Alabama, the knee explosion at UT the past two trips, I mean its gets ridiculous just to start adding them up.

    Well said my friend.

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