Why does seemingly every advanced stats projection of the 2015 season favor Georgia more than we do?
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
Chase Stuart goes through a little exercise each preseason that I find useful in terms of evaluating opening betting lines. He takes the Golden Nugget point spreads and runs them though his Simple Rating System (SRS) to rank the teams by the results.
The 2015 preseason SRS rankings are here. And you can see Vegas ain’t buying the “SEC is dead” talk. Five of the top ten teams, seven of the top fourteen, eight of the top eighteen and ten of the top twenty five are from the SEC.
There are seventy teams that had enough lines published to make the rankings. Georgia plays nine of those, five being in the top twenty.
Don’t read too much into this. As he notes, “The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.” It matters as much as you think the Golden Nugget knows what it’s doing.
Besides, it’s still July.
One gratifying thing I’ve found about blogging is that if I wait long enough, eventually somebody comes along to do the heavy lifting for me.
Such is the story with this excellent post over at GloryUGA.com, exploring how much of an impact Jeremy Pruitt had on Georgia’s defense last season. The stats make a pretty compelling case that when Pruitt said before the season that his two main goals were to increase takeaways and limit big plays, he meant it.
And while the run defense was disappointing in key games, it wasn’t a complete disaster.
Heck, even in the one area in which we took a significant statistical step backwards – rushing defense – we weren’t really THAT bad outside of two anomalous performances. Those dreadful performances happened and they cannot be ignored, however neither can the fact that we held 8 of our 11 other opponents under their season rushing averages or the fact that without those two embarrassing efforts we were essentially a top 20 rush defense.
All this from a guy who had to install a new defensive scheme and work with a secondary that was depleted from a talent standpoint. Imagine what he might be able to do with a defense that has a year’s experience with his system under its belt and a rising amount of quality depth.
A few tasty morsels I scrounged up for your morning enjoyment:
- While some of this piece by Dean Legge is over the top, it’s worth reading to the end for the comparison between Mark Richt’s Georgia career and the first fourteen seasons of Vince Dooley’s.
- The NCAA, bastion of amateurism, announces it will give $18.9 million to schools to help pay for cost of attendance stipends. That should make for some fun questioning in somebody’s antitrust case.
- Seven Georgia players are named to the media’s preseason All-SEC teams.
- Between the academic fraud scandal and this, North Carolina’s on quite the roll.
- Phil Steele looks at how often underdogs win outright.
- And Dave Bartoo looks at teams’ starting position in 2014. Georgia did well there.
- Did you know that the Carter-Floyd-Jenkins trio had a nickname? I didn’t.
- Dennis Franchione makes the curious comment that “scholarships used to be equal”. From a marginal cost standpoint, I agree, but I suspect those who like to trumpet how scholarships are full-blown compensation for student-athletes might not.
- Nice job in the ACC media guide by some disgruntled human being.
“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
So obviously, we can take this bad boy to the bank.
I guess ESPN was really impressed with G-Day.
I was wandering around Phil Steele’s site, looked at his Georgia page, and suddenly this set of stats connected in my brain:
- Hutson Mason, average yards per pass attempt: 7.8
- Nick Chubb, average yards per carry: 7.1
- Todd Gurley, average yards per carry: 7.4
- Sony Michel, average yards per carry: 6.4
Okay, so how much would you have run it?