Not bad for a walk on…
… but not exactly a ringing endorsement of UGA’s rich tradition at quarterback, either.
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
Back in (red and) black
The more I look at this…
… the more I’m impressed that Georgia could lose fifteen players to the pros, another bunch to the portal, not bring in a single transfer and still have 61% of its national championship production return this season. For comparison sake, with all the chest beating about its returning young talent, Alabama, at 67%, is only a few percentage points ahead. (Insert Metchie and Williams snark here.)
Although I have to admit I’m even more impressed with that Ohio State number (73%!), considering how loaded that team is.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Stetson’s gauntlet
It’s a fun, albeit misleading, stat: In 2022, Georgia faces last season’s nos. 121 and 122 in defensive passing yardage in Georgia Tech and Tennessee, respectively. It’s misleading because, in the case of the latter, the Vol defense is on the field more than most teams’ because of the way its offense runs.
But it did make me wonder what sort of defensive passer ratings the twelve D-1 defenses Georgia faces this year generated in ’21. Here’s how each did, along with their national ranking:
- Oregon: 127.01 (42)
- South Carolina: 123.86 (30)
- Kent State: 136.49 (74)
- Missouri: 146.59 (105)
- Auburn: 136.73 (76)
- Vanderbilt: 151.29 (114)
- Florida: 124.90 (33)
- Tennessee: 132.55 (63)
- Mississippi State: 137.93 (82)
- Kentucky: 137.65 (79)
- Georgia Tech: 173.30 (130)
Okay, so it wasn’t misleading with regard to the Jackets. They sucked on pass defense, and judging from this…
After a mass exodus this offseason, Georgia Tech only has three returning starters on defense, one of whom is cornerback Zamari Walton. The Yellow Jackets added five secondary players from the portal in hopes of quickly retooling and help the defense make legitimate strides forward.
… are likely to do so again.
That being said, with 130 being considered the average passer rating, there’s a whole bunch of mediocrity staring Stetson Bennett in the face this season. (Not to mention in the cases of Missouri, Vandy and Tech, some downright awfulness.) While I would expect improvement in certain quarters — Oregon being one — Stetson isn’t going to get thrown into a situation in the opener like Daniels was last season, facing a Clemson pass defense that finished fifth nationally in defensive passer rating (110.07).
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Make play action great again
Here’s Todd Monken, returning play action to the rightful place it occupied… under Jim Chaney?
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics
The futility, she burns.
How pathetic has Georgia Tech football been under Coach 404? This pathetic:
Looks like they’re gonna need a bigger Waffle House cup.
Filed under Georgia Tech Football, Stats Geek!
Mailin’ it in
This Dawg Post piece compares the Alabama and Georgia offenses in garbage time (defined as when a team is leading by more than 38 points in the 2nd quarter, 28 points in the 3rd quarter or 22 points in the 4th quarter) last season. I don’t think it’s any real surprise that ‘Bama kept its foot on the gas longer than did Georgia.
In 2021, in the 12 games that Stetson Bennett started, approximately 33% of the game time was played in garbage time. Not surprisingly, during this “throttle down” time, Bennett threw only 2 of his 29 touchdowns, while throwing another 2 touchdowns late in games when Georgia was leading by more than two scores, but not yet in garbage time.
In contrast, Young’s Alabama team played in garbage time for less than 20% of its season. Those forgetting (conveniently or otherwise) are reminded that Alabama struggled in wins over Florida, LSU, Arkansas and Auburn and lost to Texas A&M. Moreover, in 2021 Alabama was much slower to throttle down its offense when a game was in garbage time or approaching garbage time. This is not an opinion.
Alabama and Young often continued firing the ball down field in garbage time. In fact, Young threw nearly a quarter of his touchdown passes (11 of 47) when his team was either in garbage time (6 TDs) or nearly in garbage time, where he threw 5 touchdowns while Alabama was up by three or more scores. Simply put, Georgia played significantly more of its 2021 Season in garbage time than Alabama. And when Georgia went into garbage time, it was less likely than Alabama to have its starters in the game and to continue passing the ball.
This is proposed as an argument that the gap between Bennett and Young isn’t as large as many people argue, something I don’t care much about. What I do think it’s an argument of interest for, though, is it being a good reason why Jermaine Burton left Athens for Tuscaloosa. Pad those stats, young man!
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Kentucky and regression to the mean
It’s one of last season’s odder statistical anomalies: Kentucky managed to win ten games while finishing last in the conference in turnover margin, at minus-11. That is not an easy thing to do. Perhaps this had something to do with it:
Good teams find ways to win close games, and Kentucky has gone 16-8 in one-score games since 2017. But they exceeded even their own pace last year. After going 11-7 in such games from 2017-20, the Wildcats were 5-1 last year. That includes a 3-0 mark in the SEC with two of those wins against teams they’ll face on the road this year in Florida and Missouri. Their lone one-score defeat was a three-point loss at home to Tennessee, who the Wildcats have to face in Knoxville, Tennessee, this year.
Mark Stoops is a good game day coach, and I can’t figure out what that might portend for the ’22 season. Does UK maintain its winning ways as turnover margin swings back more favorably? Or do one-score games come back to bite the ‘Cats in the butt? I have no idea.
Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!
Genius at work
Florida, you may remember (not that it should take much effort), finished last season with a losing record. What’s truly impressive is how hard the Gators had to work for that, as this stat indicates.
That seems nearly impossible. Perhaps we haven’t fully appreciated the fine work Dan Mullen did.
Filed under Gators, Gators..., Stats Geek!
Today’s stat of the day
Also comes from that Matt Hayes article:
Georgia: 60.87. Percentage of TDs scored in the red zone, good for 6th in the SEC.
cfbstats.com says that red zone TD% was actually only good for eighth in the conference, but you get the idea. There’s certainly room for improvement.
That being said, with that tight end room he’s got on hand, I suspect Todd Monken’s on the mother.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
What is this “EPA” you speak of?
EPA is one of the stats which we will reference a lot on this site as we break down not only the X and O’s of the game, but add to the context with some advanced stats. It stands for “Expected Points Added” and all you need to realize is that is give a number to each and every play’s result based on:
- Down
- Distance
- Field Position
An offense wants a high number for a play and opposite is true for the defense. A play has an “expected value” based on the conditions of the play. A 3rd and 11 from your own 19 isn’t expected to add as much “value” as 2nd and 3 inside the opponent’s red zone. An offense that can convert a 3rd and 11 on a consistent basis will have a higher average EPA and will likely be one of the more explosive offenses. Ohio State ranked #2 in Offensive EPA in 2021 and 1st in Points Per Game (46.3). That is the picture of efficiency. Georgia had a EPA average of .302 which was good for 17th in all of FBS (10th in Power 5) and 11th (38.7) in Points per game. That points to efficiency, high valued plays tend to put points on the board. Teams which you wouldn’t expect to see, but had both high average EPA and PPG.
- UCLA 6th in EPA/33.4 PPG
- Oregon State 8th EPA/ 34 PPG
- Virginia 9th EPA/35.3 PPG
These teams were statistically efficient and put up a lot of points, but not elite in actual points. Alabama was 19th in EPA but 3rd in PPG… that tells us that they depended on bigger plays, and made a lot of them. A Heisman Trophy winner and two NFL 1st Rounders will do that. But, it isn’t ideal. The 2021 Alabama (.299 EPA) offense wasn’t near as efficient in terms of EPA as the 2020 (.450 EPA) truly elite offense.
And here’s an illustration of Georgia’s eight biggest non-scoring EPA plays last season:
They’re all good plays, no doubt, but they’re also a reminder that we’re gonna miss James Cook a little this season. But I digress…
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Get The Picture 
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