When stats confirm what your eyes were seeing

If you thought LSU flummoxed Georgia’s defense with pace, here’s a pretty stark confirmation:

Per this unofficial accounting from Cody Worsham, LSU racked up 207 yards on 20 tempo plays: 11 runs for 119 yards, plus 6-of-9 completions for 88 yards from Burrow.

That’s on the coaches, my friends.  They simply weren’t prepared to set the defense in a timely manner when LSU went hurry-up.  Maybe some of that was a change in the Tigers’ strategy, but it shouldn’t take Smart and Tucker that much time to adjust.  Instead, we saw a confused defense that took us back to the fun times of 2013.

This is something that needs to be addressed in the next two weeks, because I’ve got the feeling Dan Mullen is taking notes.

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Advanced stats like Georgia

Actually, more like love.  You’ll have to look real hard to find anything that’s an advantage for the Tigers.

But… the pass rush!

Over at the Athletic, Max Olson ($$) tells us about defensive Stop Rate.

Stop rate is a simple measure of defensive success: the percentage of your defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnover on downs.

Your current number two team in Stop Rate?  That would be the Georgia Bulldogs, at 81.7%.  (And, no, Alabama isn’t first.  It’s seventh.)

Things could always stand a little improvement, but it’s worth keeping in mind that though Georgia’s sack numbers are minuscule, this defense is getting it done, even in a year that many labeled transitional.  Smart and Tucker appear to have a clue.

A tale of two passers

CFB Film Room tries to be fair with this:

At first glance, it looks like Georgia holds the edge at QB vs LSU. However, the competition each team has faced so far this season has not been equal. Should be a fun matchup on Saturday in Baton Rouge. pic.twitter.com/LAGKkYUAuj

— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) October 10, 2018

The problem comes when you take a second glance.

It’s only fair to note that Georgia hasn’t played a ranked team yet, while LSU has faced two.  But if you strip that difference out of their numbers, it still turns out that Burrow’s passer rating against unranked opponents is nearly forty points lower than Fromm’s.

What’s got to be really scary for LSU, though, is this.

.@UGASportscom Jake Fromm in 2nd half of games this season is 23-for-27 with 5 TD and 0 INT – meaning he has more TD passes than incomplete passes in the 2nd half… Check out my are article on https://t.co/yP08BYpVDA this thursday for more stats #UGA #SEC #ATD #Gettingitdone pic.twitter.com/scMynw0MiL

— Dave McMahon (@dave_mc_stats) October 10, 2018

Fromm’s passer rating in the third quarter this season is a ridiculous 294.54.  (It’s a relatively paltry 246.27 in the fourth, but seeing as he’s only attempted six passes all year in that situation, I’m inclined to give him a pass.)  Burrow’s comparable passer ratings are under 100 in both quarters.

LSU needs to keep this game close in the second half so that it doesn’t have to rely on a passing attack to win.  That’s likely going to mean in part bringing Fromm down from his usual performance level.

Clean jersey

So, I posted this morning about the kind of season Jake Fromm is having when he’s not being pressured.  In light of that, you might find this of interest.

Here's a look at the rate at which each SEC team is allowing pressure this season: pic.twitter.com/4Gk1tMD4Iw

— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) October 10, 2018

Okay, not too shabby

A funny thing about this Georgia team — as much as some like to fret about how this team doesn’t show up on occasion, or doesn’t dominate like it should, it sure seems to have lots of players putting up excellent stats.

Take Jake Fromm, for instance.

Jake Fromm has been extremely sharp from a clean pocket this season pic.twitter.com/XcHRRWMSvl

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 10, 2018

As those numbers indicate, he’s had a clean pocket much of the season to work from.  So this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, either.

🚨 College Football's Top Offensive Lines! 🚨

(via @PFF_Gordon)https://t.co/hPzdUU3vky pic.twitter.com/m0bvsEQO3W

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 9, 2018

The deets:

Every starter on the Georgia offensive line has produced a PFF overall grade of 75.0 or higher so far this season, with left tackle Andrew Thomas the star of the show. With a PFF overall grade of 90.8, Thomas is the highest-graded offensive lineman in the nation, dominating both in pass protection and as a run-blocker. From 105 pass-blocking snaps, he has allowed just two hits and three hurries, with no sacks through five games. His PFF run-blocking grade of 90.5 is the second-highest mark of among all offensive linemen as well. As good as Thomas is though, it is the consistency across the line that drives their high ranking, with the Bulldogs ranking 15th in the nation with a 93.3 pass-blocking efficiency rating and owning the highest PFF run-blocking grade as a unit at 86.7 through six games.

All this, remember, with key injuries affecting the line over the past few weeks.  That Sam Pittman is a bad mother…

Oh, and if there’s a Georgia player whose greatness we sometimes tend to take for granted, it’s this guy.

Deandre Baker is the highest-graded cornerback in the nation. And for good reason. pic.twitter.com/vlRYK2nodv

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 9, 2018

There’s a downside to making it look easy, I guess.

Your weekly advanced stats roundup

Not much has changed.

• Georgia is third in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings and fourth in his Resumé S&P+ rankings.  (Given that the schedule toughens noticeably from here on out, assuming the Dawgs can keep pace, expect the latter to rise.)
• The Dawgs are also third in ESPN’s FPI rankings.  (Again, notice how that remaining SOS number jumps out from the surroundings.)  The closest remaining game projected on the schedule is this week’s.
• Georgia still remains on top of Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings, a reflection of the team’s efficiencies on offense and defense.
• Bill Connelly’s advanced stats profile of Georgia indicates the same thing.  Note that Georgia is ranked highly in a number of offensive efficiency metrics and the defense is doing similar work with regard to limiting explosive plays.
• One other similarity worth mentioning is that Georgia is doing all this despite mediocre net field position; Fremeau’s ranking of that is 71st, while Bill’s is 89th.

All in all, an impressive picture to this point.

There is one fly in the ointment, though.

Here are the SEC advanced stats through week 5 (using @SBN_BillC 5 factors) Sorted by only differential for now. h/t @ksu_FAN. Alabama continues its death march towards another national title. pic.twitter.com/JIMzFOCDk9

— Nicholas Carr (@NicholasCarr) October 8, 2018

The Tide, especially on offense, is on another planet.

One thing to point to again, notice the drop between the teams at the top of average field position in that chart and the Dawgs.  It’s significant.  I expect some of it — maybe a lot of it — is due to poor blocking on punt returns.  It’s almost criminal how they’re wasting opportunities for Hardman to do some serious damage there.