If Nicholls could produce a nail biter last year in Athens, just imagine what Appalachian State might be capable of doing.
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
From PFF’s Gordon McGuinness’ post about the SEC’s ten best returning players:
5. Georgia HB Nick Chubb
There’s somewhat of a leap to be made with Chubb, in that 2016 wasn’t his most impressive season, but he was coming off a serious knee injury. Despite that, the way he ended the season gives a realistic expectation that he can be back to his best in 2017, with 20 of his 39 missed tackles forced coming in the final five games of the year. Over the past three seasons, Chubb has averaged a forced missed tackle once every 4.3 carries, and has averaged 3.7 yards per carry after contact… [Emphasis added.]
If you do the math, that means Chubb’s shiftiness was back on track, career average-wise, over those last five games. If that wasn’t a mirage, with another offseason to prepare, imagine what kind of season he could have running behind an offensive line that’s merely competent.
It’s time to trot out the preseason FPI rankings, everybody!
The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI.
Combining all of the factors above produces a predicted value on offense, defense and special teams, which represents the number of points that each unit would be expected to contribute to the team’s scoring margin if it were to face an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Georgia pops up at number 13, good enough for tops in the SEC East… for what that’s worth.
Meanwhile KC Joyner, who’s brought you such previous hits as Marcus Lattimore, overrated player, and John Brantley’s preseason game greatness, now wants you to know that Georgia is a legitimate college football playoff contender. In 2017, I mean.
It’s only February, and the offseason feels too damned long already.
Over at Pro Football Focus, Gordon McGuinness pitches how Georgia could be a CFP contenda in 2017. He cites three factors, none of which are particularly controversial, but skips past something that I think is at least as important — improvement on the offensive line. Strangely enough, he posts a graphic that’s validation of that.
Look at what happened to Eason under pressure last season, compared with the rest of the time. Contrary to what you might expect, not all of his pressure-related woes can be related to handling opposing blitzes; in fact, he handled blitz situations relatively well.
Line play steps up, you’ll get a more productive starting quarterback. No wonder Jim Chaney’s crossing his fingers that Sam Pittman can work a little magic this season.
Bill Connelly takes a look at his S&P+ 5-year rankings and what he comes up with shouldn’t surprise you.
On the flip side, here are the 10 power programs whose 2016s compared least favorably with their 2011s, making their five-year averages suffer the most:
- Oregon (-4.5)
- Georgia (-3.1)
- Rutgers (-3.0)
- Oklahoma State (-2.9)
- South Carolina (-2.7)
- Vanderbilt (-2.4)
- Missouri (-2.2)
- Arizona State (-2.1)
- Michigan State (-1.9)
- Illinois (-1.8)
Yikes. (By the way, how ’bout that SEC East, baby! Four teams out of ten on that list… if you’re wondering how Georgia missed out on winning a weak division, it’s because the Dawgs fell off more than anybody else did.)
One explanation for the drop might come under the heading youth will be served.
I emphasize the word “might”, because you probably notice like I did that the two SEC division winners both had higher numbers of true freshmen snaps than did Smart’s team.
Whatever the cause, if Georgia shows up next to last again after the 2017 numbers are compiled, it’s not gonna be a happy time in Athens.
Say what you want about the tenets of Georgia’s 2016 offensive strategy, dude, but when it comes to third-down conversion rates, at least it’s an ethos.