Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Today, in stat porn

I touched on this in yesterday’s review post, but, yeah, Georgia’s a monster in the third quarter.

Halftime adjustments, for the win.

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Life after regression to the mean

These are the D-1 teams that are currently undefeated:

  • Alabama
  • Central Florida
  • Georgia
  • Miami
  • Penn State
  • South Florida
  • TCU
  • Wisconsin

Of those eight teams, the only one with a lower turnover margin than Georgia’s +1 is Wisconsin, which is even.  Of the remaining six teams, four are in the top five in that category.

That Georgia has been able to roll thus far without being dominant in turnovers surprises me.  It’s an indication of how solid this team has been everywhere else.

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Georgia and Points Per Drive

Brian Fremeau tracks points per drive in all its permutations.

Points Per Drive data are a function of all offensive possessions in FBS vs. FBS games, excluding first-half clock kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. Teams are ranked by net points scored per drive (NPD), the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD). Points per long drive for the offense (OLD) and opponent offenses (DLD) are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense’s own 20-yard line. Points per remaining drive for the offense (ORD) and opponent offenses (DRD) are calculated on possessions that begin within 80 yards of the end zone. Points per value drive for the offense (OVD) and opponent offenses (DVD) are calculated on possessions that begin on the offense’s own side of midfield and reach at least the opponent’s 30-yard line.

Georgia currently ranks fifth this season in overall points per drive.  What’s really impressive about its showing is the consistency.  Across nine categories, the rankings range from 2nd to 21st.  Even Alabama has a bigger spread than that.

In case you’re wondering, Georgia finished 65th in PPD in 2016.

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Bill C. is freaking me out, PAWWWLLL.

Georgia’s advanced stat profile has flipped on the Auburn game and Bill now assesses Georgia’s chances of winning at least eleven games at 68%.

Did I already say oy today?

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UPDATE:  One serious thing to mention about Bill’s analysis — if you want to track the ebb and flow of Georgia’s games this season, all you need to look at is its S&P+ by quarter.

Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 135.7 17 200.3 1
Q2 S&P+ 113.6 50 126.9 23
Q3 S&P+ 124.1 27 200.5 2
Q4 S&P+ 87.7 104 129.1 13

 

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Balance, when things are clicking

Jake Fromm is your SEC leader in yards per attempt.

Georgia has three of the conference’s top nine backs in yards per carry.

Pretty cool, eh?

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Today’s “pinch me” stat

I don’t know what blows me away more this morning, that Georgia is fifth nationally in third-down conversion percentage, or that the Dawgs are converting more than 50% of their third down conversion attempts.  This, with the question marks at wide receiver and offensive line coming into the season, not to mention starting a true freshman quarterback for the last six games.

Those of you who are still down on Jim Chaney, you are welcome to explain your misgivings in the comments section.

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The grind, she is getting statistic-y.

This is ESPN analytics, so I don’t know how pornographic you’ll take this as being, but still…

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