Of course they are…
I can’t wait to see what the final national net ypp numbers look like.
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
Stat of the season
Okay, new quarterback, new offensive coordinator… who saw this coming back in August?
72.4 – Beck finishes the season with a 72.4 completion percentage, which is now a school record, passing the 68.3 percentage that Stetson Bennett set last season.
I sure didn’t. I guess it’s one more thing we can blame Bobo for.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
A big fat nothin’
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Today, in promos
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Here’s a sample:
Cheap at twice the price. If Saban were playing in the Fabris Pool, you know he’d get one.
Filed under Stats Geek!
In 2024, the neighborhood gets more challenging.
Bill Connelly ($$) asks the musical questions, “… how much harder is the SEC’s 2024 slate compared to 2023? And exactly whom is it harder for?”
Here’s his take on Georgia’s:
Georgia Bulldogs
2023 SOS and record: 0.876 (50th) and 12-0
Projected 2024 SOS: 0.818 (would rank fifth in 2023)
2024 games favored (avg. wins): 12 (10.2)
The Dawgs’ 2023 SOS was also shaken up by the removal of Oklahoma. Their SOS can only ever be so difficult — they can’t actually play Georgia, after all — but adding Clemson to open the season, plus Texas and Alabama in SEC play, is quite the boost.
Tougher, but not impossible. About what you’d expect, in other words.
For what it’s worth, if it’s impossible you want, check out Florida.
After a reasonably light early slate, Florida finished its 2023 regular season with four opponents ranked 12th or better in SP+ in a five-game span. They lost five straight. Next year, they play Miami (currently 22nd) and Texas A&M (15th) in September and Tennessee (19th) in October … and then finish with five games against teams currently 14th or better. What was just about the hardest schedule in the country is getting harder.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
To beat the best, you’ve got to be the most deserving.
Gosh, hosing a quality Georgia team appears to be becoming a tradition for the selection committee.
Probably just a coincidence. Anyway, hear about the 12-team playoff coming?
Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Not so whipped
So, I’m seeing a number of hot takes along the lines of Georgia was outcoached, outschemed, overmatched on the lines of scrimmage, etc. — all in a game where the final margin of victory was three points!
The final game stats don’t support that, either. The Dawgs finished with more yards and roughly the same number of first downs. Alabama was 3-13 on third down conversions. (Georgia was only slightly better in that regard.) Beck finished with a higher completion percentage and better yards per pass attempt than Milroe. And as far as the line of scrimmage goes, Georgia sacked Milroe twice as much as Bama got to Beck and finished with more tackles for loss, as well.
As for scheme, the staff decided if it was going to pick its poison, they weren’t going to let Milroe beat them with his feet or with the deep ball. And that pretty much worked. Milroe wound up rushing for 29 yards (30 of them, unfortunately, came on that last possession) and he didn’t have a completion of more than 28 yards. They wanted Alabama to beat them grinding it out. Sadly, ‘Bama did just that.
None of this is to say that Georgia had the better night. It didn’t. But I would characterize the overall performance as frustratingly inconsistent, rather than the result of being dominated.
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UPDATE: Shit, left out the last paragraph…
Put it this way. Forget about the officiating and the injuries for a minute and ask yourself a simple question: if Georgia doesn’t self-inflict the damage caused by the fumble and the motion penalty on the field goal attempt, what’s the likely outcome of the game?
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics
Moar SECCG stats
What’s particularly striking about tomorrow’s game is how, unlike before typically, there are so many similarities between the two teams. The most obvious of those are the stakes: only the winner can count on making the four-team CFP field (yes, ‘Bama is in with a win). But right behind that are things like a 29-game winning streak and a shot at a virtually unprecedented threepeat of the national title on Georgia’s side and avoiding a three-game stretch of not winning a national title on Alabama’s. There’s a lot on the line for both programs.
Both teams have enjoyed similar arcs this season. Both started slowly, but have played their best football over the past month — until their last regular season games. Both teams play good defense, but not as good as they have in preceding seasons. And both have quarterback-centric offenses.
Of course, similar doesn’t mean identical. For once, it feels like Georgia rolls into this meeting with the better offense.
I mention all this as a prelude to what I’ve been doing a fair amount of this week, scouring the stats for both teams to see what kind of edges for each can be gleaned. I’ve posted a lot of that stuff already, but I’ve got a couple more things to share in the post.
One reason ‘Bama has started rolling in the second half of the season is turnovers. In their first seven games, they posted a turnover margin of +2. In their last four, their turnover margin is +5. One big reason for that is Milroe has only thrown one interception over those four games. Meanwhile, while Georgia has 12 interceptions on the season, only three of those have come over the last five games.
One area of difference that may have an impact tomorrow is at running back. Alabama’s top rusher, Jace McClellan, has been ruled out due to injury. Meanwhile, Georgia’s seen a resurgence at the position due to Kendal Milton’s return to health. And while we’re all painfully aware of the Dawgs’ shortcomings in run defense, especially on the edge, it’s worth noting that the Tide hasn’t been all that stout against the run lately, having given up more than 200 yards on the ground in two of their last four games.
Sure seems like we’re about to get a good back and forth game, at least for a while.
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Spreading the wealth
Pretty cool stat here…
That puts me in mind of something Gary Danielson said during the broadcast of the Georgia-Tennessee game — noting that the Dawgs’ multitude of receiving options makes it almost impossible to key in on particular player on a given play.
By the way, note which team is on the other end of that measuring stick.
Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!
SECCG common opponent stat
Alabama and Georgia have played four common opponents this season: Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Both finished 4-0 against that group, but in doing so, there’s one big difference.
Obviously, that’s no guarantee of results come Saturday, but it’s a good indication that this Georgia team plays at its best when it has to.
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Get The Picture 
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