Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Handled with care

If I may borrow from another insurance ad, it appears that Jake Fromm was in good hands last season.

We may owe a few Dawg receivers apologies, gang.

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17 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Satisfactory explosiveness

Seth Emerson has an interesting quote ($$) from Jim Chaney:

… When the Georgia offensive coordinator was asked about generating more explosive plays, he cited last year’s stats: “Run game is 12 yards or more (to be considered explosive). Pass game is 16 yards or more. We were 1 out of 6.7 plays in explosive last year, if I remember right. That’s not bad. That’s pretty good for me.”

You know me — that’s the kind of thing that gets me digging a little at cfbstats.com.  Unfortunately, I can’t quite get the numbers to align with Chaney’s metrics, but, still, here’s my dive:

That works out to one of roughly 4.5 plays going for ten or more yards and one of about every 7.5 plays for 20 or more yards.

For shits and giggles, a comparison to last year’s gold standard, Oklahoma, shows the Sooners hitting 10 or more yards once out of about 3.5 plays and one out of about every 8.5 plays going for 20 or more yards.

In other words, Mr. Chaney’s entitled to feel pleased.

20 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Chicks love the deep ball, ctd.

That Jake Fromm… what are we gonna do with him?

As long as the run threat remains credible (duh) and the offensive line continues to improve, I don’t expect Fromm’s gonna lose his place there.

11 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Thursday morning buffet

A little of this, a little of that and pretty soon all the chafing dishes are full.

28 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The NCAA, Urban Meyer Points and Stares

“Muschamp teams play like underdogs.”

Bill Connelly absolutely nails the root source of my reluctance to embrace the possibility that this is the year South Carolina takes the SEC East by storm.

They adopt the slowest possible tempo, which helps cut down on the overall number of plays and possessions — a good way for a team with a per-play disadvantage to increase variance. And while I’m sure he doesn’t object to scoring, the first goal of a Muschamp offense is to make sure it’s not putting his defense at a disadvantage. He has been a head coach for six years, and he has had only one offense rank higher than 74th in Off. S&P+ and only one defense rank worse than 36th in Def. S&P+.

This isn’t the most aesthetic brand of ball. But it is a way to stay close to your opponent, when you know you probably aren’t going to generate an inherent efficiency or big-play advantage. And it’s going to look better at a school that doesn’t have quite so many talent advantages, especially when you can play the “No one expects us to win!!!” card.

That’s Will Muschamp.  And, as Bill notes, to be fair to Boom, sometimes that works and works well, as it has in his second years in both Gainesville and Columbia.

But he’s ditching it now, or so he claims.  And he’s relying on a offensive coordinator who’s never taken the wheel for any period longer than a bowl game, about which, by the way, Connelly has this to say:

SC didn’t light the world afire in the bowl win over Michigan, but a turnover advantage and a couple of big run plays allowed a comeback.

In other words, Carolina won that game the way Carolina won all season long.

They do have Deebo Samuel back, and you won’t hear me say that’s not a big deal.  It is.  But does anyone truly believe without any hesitation whatsoever that Muschamp is breezily walking away from the coaching philosophy that’s defined his career?  Even if you’re one of those who accepts that on faith, how realistic is it to expect a seamless transition?

Bill thinks the ‘Cocks won’t have to be as lucky as they were last season to succeed because Samuel makes them better on offense and special teams.  But I also notice that S&P+ is projecting 7 regular season wins.  The truth is likely to lie somewhere in there, but I think I’ll either need some on the field convincing that the new scheme is up to the task, or Boom’s gonna need some more of that turnover luck.

42 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Stats Geek!

“They all want perfect plays.”

Last season scoring was down in college football, a drop of about a point and a half per game per team to 28.8, and the lowest mark since 2011 (28.3).

And there was much defensive coordinator rejoicing, right?

Turns out offenses across college are running fewer plays.

FBS teams averaged 69.9 plays per game in 2017, down from 71.6 the season before and the fewest since 2011. Eighty-three of 129 FBS teams last season ran fewer plays per game than in 2016. Seven teams averaged at least 80 plays per game last year, half as many as in 2016 and the fewest since 2011. There were 31 teams that ran fewer plays per game last season than in 2016, but saw their average time of possession increase.

The end result is that college offenses are more efficient than ever.

Championship Analytics Inc., a company that provides dozens of FBS schools a weekly advanced metrics breakdown of their upcoming game, uses drives per game to measure pace. Responding to a request from The Associated Press, CAI’s research showed drives per game have been decreasing in FBS for the last three seasons. In 2014, FBS games averaged 25.12 drives per game. Last season that dropped to 24.39. Points per drive, however, have remained relatively steady. In 2014, teams averaged 2.21 points per drive. Last season, it was 2.23.  [Emphasis added.]

The rest of the article, which is about the timeless chess match between offensive and defensive coordinators, is worth reading.  Suffice to say that the offensive guys aren’t losing the war yet.

3 Comments

Filed under Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

Today, in rather being lucky than good

BTW, one useful thing about that Connelly preview of Florida is that he linked to an old Football Outsiders post of his about new coaching hires that I searched like mad for when Georgia hired Kirby Smart and couldn’t find.

Here’s the link.  Read it and maybe you’ll understand a little better about my frustration with the hiring process (using the term loosely, ya’ know) that led to Smart’s hire.

Two-year change at BCS Conferences Based on Coaching Type
Coaching Type N 1st Yr
Chg.
Avg. Two-Yr
Chg.
Applicable 2010 Teams
College Assistant 30 -0.8% +1.4% Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Vanderbilt
BCS Conf. Coach 18 +0.5% +5.4% Notre Dame, Texas Tech, USC
Non-BCS Conf. Coach 12 -0.8% +2.3% Cincinnati, Kansas, South Florida, Tennessee
Fired BCS Conf. Coach 5 +2.0% -1.1%
NFL 7 -7.6% -4.8%
FCS Coach 4 -5.0% -16.0% Virginia
Grand Total 76 -1.2% +0.8%

The odds favor bringing on another BCS head coach.  That — obviously — doesn’t mean Smart wouldn’t click, but it also strongly suggests that McGarity, who had the premier opening in college football to fill, just as obviously didn’t make much of an effort at performing his due diligence.  Sometimes things just work out.

67 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!