Quick SECCG statistical sketch

If you’re looking for a pregame profile of Georgia vs. LSU, Josh has that for you.

Updated @SEC Championship Metrics, Stats, and Ranks from @DawgsCentral_ pic.twitter.com/4L2DSgMvAZ

— Dawg Stats (@DawgStats) November 27, 2022

It’s not lopsided, but it’s clear which team should be favored Saturday.

SEC Net YPP, Week 13

The post-rivalry week numbers:

• Georgia 2.46 (6.95 o; 4.49 d) [NC:  -.03]
• Alabama 2.28 (6.80 o; 4.52 d) [NC:  -.02]
• Tennessee 1.97 (7.35 o; 5.38 d) [NC:  +.34]
• Ole Miss 1.12 (6.43 o; 5.31 d) {NC: -.10]
• Florida .81 (6.76 o; 5.95 d) [NC:  -.12]
• LSU .72 (6.08 o; 5.36 d) [NC:  -.13]
• Texas A&M .56 (5.73 o; 5.17 d) [NC:  +.02]
• South Carolina .45 (6.01 o; 5.56 d) [NC:  +.03]
• Missouri .27 (5.53 o; 5.26 d) [NC:  +.17]
• Mississippi State .26 (5.47 o; 5.21 d) [NC:  -.04]
• Auburn .18 (5.70 o; 5.52 d) [NC:  -.18]
• Kentucky .18 (5.43 o; 5.25 d) [NC:  +.06]
• Arkansas -.25 (6.18 o; 6.43 d) [NC: .17]
• Vanderbilt -1.68 (5.27 o; 6.95 d) {NC:  -.40]

Turnover margin:

• +9:  Tennessee
• +8:  Florida
• +4:  Mississippi State
• +1:  LSU, Ole Miss
• -0-:  Vanderbilt
• -1:  Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M
• -2:  Georgia, Missouri
• -4:  Alabama
• -5:  South Carolina
• -9:  Auburn

Observations:

• Boy, Vanderbilt wiped out every bit of positive momentum it had against the Vols.
• Net ypp overachievers:  LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi State
• Net ypp underachievers:  Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M
• Georgia wound up sneaking back in ahead of ‘Bama in defensive ypp.

First, with a twist

Bill Connelly’s last regular season SP+ rankings are out ($$).  As you might expect, Georgia is first.  As you might not expect, it’s because of the defense.

Remember the past offseason, after the NFL draft, when we were told this season, the offense would have to carry the defense?  Good times, those.

A transitive mystery

Can someone explain how the ACC’s best defense gave up 38 points to Florida, while the SEC’s worst defense gave up 24 the week before?

Won’t get beat deep.

Helluva stat here.

Most coverage snaps played without allowing a 15+ yard catch:

🐶 Javon Bullard – 267 pic.twitter.com/xhGAHCJ1l2

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 25, 2022

He’s also third on the team in sacks and tackles for loss.

Not bad for a three-star recruit.  If only Kirby was more than just a recruiter…

In retrospect, not so bad

For all the bitching we did about Georgia’s running game and offensive line play against Mississippi State, it’s worth taking note of this stat from last night.

Ole Miss entered tonight's Egg Bowl fourth in the nation in rushing average at 5.75 yards per carry. Miss State held them to 74 yards on 38 yards for just 1.9 ypc. Helluva job by DC Zach Arnett's crew that had 15 TFLs.

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) November 25, 2022

Georgia, by comparison, ran for 179 yards, at a 5.2 ypc clip — at Clanga.  (The Dawgs are currently 14th nationally in rushing average.)

Did the offensive line struggle a bit?  Sure did.  But it’s a reminder of a couple of things.  One, we’re a bit spoiled.  Two, more often than not, Todd Monken manages to squeeze out the production he needs, one way or the other.

If a stat fell in the woods and Kirby Smart heard it…

… does that make it more meaningful?

Interesting stat tidbit from Kirby Smart yesterday…

Georgia pays the more attention to explosive play differential than they do turnover margin. Makes sense considering some turnovers happen with the help of luck. And not coincidentally, #UGA ranks No. 2 in the country. pic.twitter.com/DGEoaSVO6U

— Palmer Thombs (@palmerthombs) November 24, 2022

Apparently so.

Rainy, with a chance of manball

Between the weather on Saturday and this…

… Overall, Georgia Tech is 0-4 when allowing over 200 rushing yards and 1-5 when giving up 150 or more – the North Carolina win last week was the outlier.

Tennessee and Oregon were the only two teams other than Samford – Georgia didn’t exactly go full force in that – to keep the Dawgs to under 150.

… it’s looking like another day of We Run This State for the Dawgs.

TFW nobody said there’d be math

Sure, you could read line after line of numbers about Georgia’s superiority over Tech…

On paper, Georgia should win this game 100-0 https://t.co/208WwJG1h5

— UGA Football Live (@UGAfootballLive) November 22, 2022

… but why bother, when the tl;dr version is so much more eloquent?

Somehow, yes, Georgia is projected by FEI to hold Georgia Tech to negative 2.5 points. https://t.co/BLGkyoUBBe

— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) November 22, 2022

Misunderstood metric

Michael Felder has this to say about time of possession:

I hate when people argue about time of possession. They’re insulting their own team and insulting my intelligence. “Well my team had the ball longer so that’s why we win,” is a talking point for scared people.

Scared money don’t make money.

If you have the ball a long time it is a combination of 3 things; you’re scared for the other team to have the ball, you are not an explosive offense or you’re really good up front and can do whatever you want. Football ain’t hot potato, if it takes 12 play drives to score all the time are you actually good and if you are good, why are you playing with your food…

Well, yes and no.  It is silly to tie TOP to winning and losing as a matter of simple causation.  But if you’re, say, a triple option team that isn’t among the national leaders in time of possession, that’s a good indication you’re doing something very, very wrong.

Something similar can be said for offenses that are very efficient, but not very explosive — you know, like Michigan (currently #3 in TOP) or Georgia (currently #6 in TOP).  Teams like those aren’t playing with their food so much as playing to their strengths.

Kentucky, on the other hand…