Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Today’s random stat

I came across something Paul Myerberg wrote about Georgia before the 2013 season…

Georgia is 18-3 since the start of the 2007 season when intercepting two or more passes, including a 3-0 mark in such games a year ago. In fact, this record improves to 18-1 when counting only regular-season games; two of these losses came in bowl play, to Michigan State in the 2012 Outback Bowl and UCF in the 2010 Liberty Bowl.

… and decided to rummage around cfbstats.com to see how the Dawgs fared since Myerberg posted that.

  • 2013:  1-1
  • 2014:  3-0
  • 2015:  3-0

All told, 7-1, which adds up to a 25-4 mark over the last nine seasons.  That’s not too shabby there.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

What if Jacob Eason is the least mistake-prone of Georgia’s quarterbacks?

I’m not asking out of wishful thinking.  I’m responding to something written and posted at Pro Football Focus.  Rather than projecting Eason’s future based on his G-Day debut – yeah, don’t I know – take a look at the resumes of the other two candidates.

Lambert had a couple of really big performances for the Bulldogs in 2015, and there’s no taking away from that. Most notable was his performance against South Carolina in the third game of the year, when he completed 24-of-25 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Simply put, it was one of the best single-game performances we saw from a quarterback all year. So what’s the problem? Well, as good as that performance was, that game was the outlier and there were plenty of struggles to go along with it.

His completion percentage over the course of the season was 63.0 percent, but he had five games where he completed less than 53 percent of his throws, and his adjusted completion percentage over the course of the year, which takes into consideration drops, batted passes, throwaways, spikes and throws while being hit, was just 72.0 percent, ranking 44th in the nation.

The 79th-highest graded quarterback in the nation last year, Lambert’s passing grade of +7.0 was equal to his grade in that game against South Carolina, with the rest of his year rounding out at average, with a lot of ups and downs helping him there. Heading into his senior season, the Bulldogs can’t trust which version of Lambert will turn up on a weekly basis.

Basically what he’s saying there is that the rest of Lambert’s 2015 season completely offset the good he did against South Carolina.  Stats aside, it kind of felt that way to me, too.

As for Ramsey,

Ramsey arrived at Georgia as a four star recruit, but has yet to live up to that hype. In his defense, he’s yet to really get a chance, never attempting more than 14 passes in a single game in the past two seasons. Perhaps he would have had more opportunities however, if he had stood out a little bit more in those games. This past season he attempted four passes of 20 yards or further downfield, with three falling incomplete, and the other being intercepted. He was more consistent between 10 and 19 yards, going five-for-seven, for 84 yards and an interception, but his struggles to push the ball downfield when needed are noted.

571 players took at least one snap at quarterback in 2015, with Ramsey’s grade of -2.0 ranking tied for 390th in the nation. He also lacks the big time throws in his repertoire, with just two throws with a +1.0 grade from 78 passing attempts over the past two seasons, with seven throws grading at -1.0 or worse in that span. It’s hard to judge him fully based on such a small sample size, but he certainly hasn’t shown anything, even in flashes, to think that he can make this starting role for the Bulldogs his own.

It’s great to have a big arm, but if you can’t complete downfield passes, that negates the whole advantage to having that big arm.

So, yeah, while Eason is the greenest and needs to improve to win the job, it’s not like either Lambert or Ramsey can stand pat.  Whoever of the three wins the job needs to be better than he’s been before.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

More moar Chubb

Did Nick Chubb’s injury make Brian Schottenheimer a dumber offensive coordinator?  Well

ceffect

It certainly didn’t make him smarter.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Run the dang ball.

Here’s a pretty funky stat from last season.

Running Bulldogs: Georgia returns its two leading rushers from a year ago, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. The two combined for 1,908 yards on the ground despite Chubb suffering a season-ending knee injury on the first play against Tennessee on Oct. 10. That’s more than 38 FBS teams had for the entire season. They also accounted for over 76 percent of Georgia’s rushing game.

Imagine what they could do this year with a healthy Chubb and a consistent offensive line.

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“From king status to mildly hot seat”

Bill Connelly’s Georgia Tech preview is a treat.  Trust me on this.

Well… okay, if you want a little taste, here’s the conclusion:

Rinse, repeat. Georgia Tech should have a good offense and a defense that can’t make enough plays. We’ve seen this episode before. But hey, that’s still better than last year’s episode.

In other words, when you’re 3-9, you’re likely to have nowhere to go but up.  It doesn’t take a genius for that.

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Georgia’s biggest problem on offense? Ask ESPN.

ESPN’s crack stats team wants you to know that this is, according to them, Georgia’s most daunting metric:

Quarterback play: Former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray left Athens in 2013 as the SEC’s career leader in completions, passing touchdowns, passing yards and total offense. In the two seasons since, the Dawgs have struggled to find Murray’s replacement. Georgia averaged 192.5 pass yards per game the past two seasons, which ranks 11th in the SEC and 79 YPG fewer than in the four seasons with Murray. Freshman Jacob Eason, the No. 13 overall player and No. 1 quarterback in the 2016 ESPN 300, might be leaned on early in his career to rejuvenate the Bulldogs’ passing offense. Matthew Stafford is the only Georgia quarterback commit ranked higher than Eason in the ESPN 300 era (since 2006).

Not trying to be one here… okay, maybe I am, but the year after Aaron Murray left saw Georgia average more than 41 points per game, good for first in the conference and eighth nationally.  I’m pretty confident that the only folks who saw that production as daunting were opposing defensive coordinators.

Yeah, things fell of the table last season, but I’d be willing to bet there’s more than enough blame to go around for that than just struggling to find a decent quarterback.

Bottom line, give me a full slate at tailback, some decent offensive line work and an offensive coordinator who’s at least competent and the passing yardage should take care of itself.  But thanks for the warning, ESPN.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

An early look at SEC win totals

Chip Patterson’s gathered the info from Vegas Insider for the early lines on wins.  Here’s how the SEC looks on June 1:

Team Win Total Prices
Alabama 10 Over +100 Under -120
LSU 10 Over +100 Under -120
Tennessee 9.5 Over +105 Under -125
Georgia 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Ole Miss 8.5 Over +100 Under -120
Arkansas 7.5 Over -120 Under +100
Florida 7.5 Over -125 Under +105
Auburn 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Mississippi State 6.5 Over -120 Under +100
Texas A&M 6 Over -120 Under +100
Missouri 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
Kentucky 5 Over -110 Under -110
South Carolina 5 Over -110 Under -110
Vanderbilt 5 Over -110 Under -110

Patterson thinks taking the over on Georgia looks like the best bet on the board.

Before you jump in here one way or another, here are some advanced stats to ponder.  First, Brian Fremeau has his initial stab at 2016 strength of schedule rankings posted and here’s where the SEC teams stand:

  • Auburn – 1st
  • Mississippi State – 2nd
  • Texas A&M – 3rd
  • Ole Miss – 4th
  • Kentucky – 6th
  • Arkansas – 7th
  • Alabama – 8th
  • LSU – 9th
  • Florida – 11th
  • Missouri – 12th
  • Tennessee – 14th
  • South Carolina – 15th
  • Vanderbilt – 21st
  • Georgia – 43rd

Over at Team Speed Kills, David Wunderlich has taken the early S&P+ projections and fashioned what he calls an equivalency list of each SEC team.

What counts as “equivalent teams” is entirely subjective, but the measure I used is being within a touchdown’s worth of points. In the example above, Ole Miss is just outside of being a peer to Alabama. No. 2 LSU, with its S&P+ of 24.4, would be a peer of Alabama (and also of the Rebels, incidentally).

Enough setup. Here is how everything turned out:

TEAM S&P+ RANK S&P+ HIGHEST PEER LOWEST PEER TOTAL PEERS
Alabama 1 26.8 No. 4 Oklahoma 3
LSU 2 24.4 No. 1 Alabama No. 7 Ole Miss 6
Ole Miss 7 18.9 No. 1 Alabama No. 25 Texas A&M 23
Tennessee 9 17.0 No. 4 Oklahoma No. 30 Miami (FL) 25
Georgia 15 16.2 No. 4 Oklahoma No. 34 Texas 30
Arkansas 17 15.2 No. 4 Oklahoma No. 38 Iowa 33
Florida 19 14.5 No. 5 Florida State No. 39 Utah 34
Mississippi State 21 13.6 No. 5 Florida State No. 42 Minnesota 37
Auburn 24 12.5 No. 6 Michigan No. 45 WKU 37
Texas A&M 25 12.5 No. 6 Michigan No. 45 WKU 37
Missouri 47 5.1 No. 26 Nebraska No. 80 Air Force 54
South Carolina 63 2.8 No. 31 TCU No. 90 MTSU 59
Vanderbilt 69 1.8 No. 35 BYU No. 95 Ohio 61
Kentucky 83 -2.4 No. 51 Duke No. 105 Georgia State 54

Respectable projection for the Dawgs there.  Taken together with what, at least at this stage, appears to be a favorable schedule, I’d have to say that Patterson is on to something.  What do you guys think?

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Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas