Category Archives: Stats Geek!

“How To Beat a No. 1 Team”

Per somebody who goes by the handle “Bryan the Intern” over at a Kentucky site, there are just two things you need to do.  One, win the turnover battle and two, throw the ball effectively.

That should be no problem for a Kentucky team that’s minus-8 in turnover margin and is averaging fewer than 130 passing yards per game against SEC opposition, amirite?

29 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Big Nasty

Jordan Davis is special.  How special?

This special.

Danielson was right about one thing he said in that clip I posted yesterday:  Davis’ dominance is such that if he played a skill position, he’d be running away with the Heisman this season.

16 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Advanced stats: Bennett vs. Daniels

I posted the difference on third down between the two already, but Seth Emerson ($$) adds a few more data points today in his Mailbag:

• Accuracy: Just one of Daniels’ 71 pass attempts this season has been an off-target incompletion, the best such rate (1.4 percent) at the FBS level, per Pro Football Focus. No other player has an off-target rate lower than 5 percent, the national average is 14 percent, and Bennett’s rate is 11.5 percent.

• Third downs: Daniels has converted 11-of-18 third-down passes (61.1 percent), the highest rate in the FBS. Bennett’s rate is 12.5 percent, which ranks 148th. (Though to be fair, he has run for a first down on several of those occasions.) But overall on third down, Daniels ranks eighth nationally in pass efficiency, while Bennett ranks 77th.

• Pocket poise: Daniels has averaged 1.97 seconds in the pocket before his pass, the fastest rate in the FBS level. Bennett has averaged 2.53 seconds, which is 74th in FBS.

Seth goes on to describe the difference between the two as, “Daniels is the efficient distributor, especially on the money down, while Bennett has made more flashy plays, but not quite as consistent.”  I would simply add there is no quarterback controversy and Stetson’s been the best backup quarterback in the country this season.  Georgia is lucky to have ’em both.

37 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Monken, Bennett and Daniels

Statistically speaking, do you know what the biggest difference is between Georgia’s top two quarterbacks?  Per Mike Griffith, it’s third down performance.

In SEC games this season:

• Daniels is 9-of-9 passing on third downs for 118 yards and 9 (-of-9) conversions for first down.

• Bennett is 8-of-14 passing on third downs for 43 yards and 2 (-of 14) conversions for first downs.

I actually guessed the answer before I read it, mainly because I remembered how insane Daniels’ third-down work was last season (a 230.50 passer rating!) and that, fairly or not, no one refers to Stetson on third down in similar ways.  Daniels hasn’t been quite as stellar this season, but his 185.38 rating is his best on any down.  As you can see here, Bennett’s strong suit is throwing on early downs, where he’s been remarkable.

You think Monken is aware of those tendencies?  Of course he is.  You think he manages his play calling for each with that in mind?  Of course he does.

I’m not going to get into a debate about who should be starting once Daniels’ health is deemed satisfactory.  If there’s a season ever in which I trust the coaches to make the right decision, it’s this one.  But I point this out to note that the right decision might very well involve how likely it is that the coaches feel the need to plan for games in which offensive performance on third down will be crucial… you know, like the one coming up in a few weeks in Jacksonville.

29 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Don’t get too comfortable back there, dude.

Shot.

Chaser.

There’s a guy fervently hoping the ‘Cats can put together some semblance of a running game Saturday.

13 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

A different way to havoc

It’s not just what advanced stats have to say about Georgia’s defensive performance that impress.  Some of the raw numbers regarding blitzing and sacks are just as crazy good.  Consider these:

  • Georgia is blitzing on 18.8 percent of opponent dropbacks, its lowest rate under Smart, but is getting sacks on 12.1 percent of dropbacks — the highest rate under Smart.
  • Eighteen different Georgia players have at least one sack, and 12 different Bulldogs have recorded at least one full sack. That’s the most on any Power 5 team in the country and second-most in the FBS. In just six games that’s already more than Georgia had all of last season (11) or four years ago when it reached the national championship game (10).

23 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Gettin’ after it

Call me out for looking ahead, if you like, but here’s a stat I’d file in the back of my head if we get a certain match up in the SECCG:

Given the current state of Alabama’s o-line and that of Georgia’s defensive front seven, I’d look for the Dawgs to notch another entry on that list.

10 Comments

Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

You know you’re having a good season when…

Bill Connelly ($$) writes that your biggest flaw is that you haven’t had to score.

While quarterback Stetson Bennett IV has been fantastic filling in for and/or usurping starter JT Daniels — 69% completion rate, 95.2 Total QBR (first among passers with at least 50 dropbacks) and quite a few gorgeous play-action bombs — he hasn’t had to throw more than 21 passes in a game yet, and, incredibly, he’s thrown only 18 passes with Georgia ahead by less than 14 points[Emphasis added.]

That’s what covering double-digit spreads in the first quarter will do for a guy.

That Georgia has gotten this far without really needing a passing game is incredible, but we still don’t know what will happen when the Dawgs actually have to complete a pass in a close game.

Looking at the schedule, what’s your pick for when that happens?  (Or, dare I say it, if that happens?)

84 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

SEC Net YPP, Week 6

For the majority of the conference, the downward trend in net YPP continues, which is another way of saying the SEC is in the midst of beating itself up.  (As always, stats via cfbstats.com.)

  1. Georgia 2.89 (6.49 o; 3.60 d) [NC: -.33]
  2. Florida 2.37 (7.17 o; 4.80 d) [NC: +.68]
  3. Kentucky 2.00 (6.61 o; 4.61 d) [NC: -.01]
  4. Alabama 1.72 (6.72 o; 5.00 d) [NC:  -.38]
  5. Ole Miss 1.72 (7.35 o; 5.63 d) [NC:  -.25]
  6. Arkansas 1.63 (6.73 o; 5.10 d) [NC: -.62]
  7. Auburn:  1.56 (6.40 o; 4.84 d) [NC:  -.71]
  8. Tennessee 1.44 (6.31 o; 4.87 d) [NC: +.10]
  9. Texas A&M .92 (5.93 o; 5.01 d) [NC: -.29]
  10. Mississippi State .32 (5.68 o; 5.36 d) [DNP]
  11. LSU .15 (5.62 o; 5.47 d) [NC: -.38]
  12. South Carolina -.02 (5.19 o; 5.21 d) [NC: -.38]
  13. Missouri -.29 (6.55 o; 6.84 d) [NC: 0]
  14. Vanderbilt -2.44 (4.27 o; 6.71 d) [NC: -.34]

Turnover margin, after week six:

  • +5:  Ole Miss
  • +4:  Alabama, Missouri
  • +3:  Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
  • +2:  Arkansas
  • +1:  Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State
  • -3:  Florida
  • -4: Texas A&M
  • -6:  Vanderbilt
  • -8:  Kentucky

Observations:

  • Florida is the recipient of this week’s Vanderbilt bounce.
  • Three teams have net YPP numbers that could be CFP worthy; two of those are the last undefeated teams in the conference.
  • Georgia’s defensive YPP is a full yard better than second place Kentucky’s is.  Vanderbilt’s offensive YPP is almost a full yard worse than South Carolina’s.

12 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Thoughts on The Loss

Really, I can’t decide what’s harder to wrap my brain around this morning, Zach Calzada’s game log, or the fact that Alabama gave up more points in a single SEC game than Georgia’s allowed all season.

But, as a Dawg fan, here’s something I can wrap my brain around:  if Georgia can pull off an SECCG win — and, yes, I appreciate the “if” there — there’s a strong likelihood that they won’t have to play Alabama again in the CFP.  How strong?  Well, according to ESPN’s FPI, Georgia now has a 46.3% change of winning the national championship.  Alabama is second, at 18.3.

47 Comments

Filed under Alabama, BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!