Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Boom went the dynamite

Is this good?

It is, but, in a way, it’s like finishing fifth in the national recruiting rankings.

Either SEC pass offenses were crazy good in 2020, or nobody’s pass defense was crazy good.  Or maybe a little of both…

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Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Evolution

If you’re trying to put your finger on how Georgia’s offense changed from 2019 to 2020, this data dump might be right up your alley.

Okay, that’s better, but maybe you’re still not that impressed.  Well, this might change your mind.

That’s not your daddy’s manball.  What that is, is an offensive coordinator who’s not as wedded to wasted running plays as his predecessor was and finally has a quarterback he trusts to make throws.  Luckily for us, none of that should change in 2021.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Todd Monken, sneaky devil?

Wait a minute…

I thought Georgia was prohibited from using its tight ends like that.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Manball ain’t dead, y’all.

It’s just evolving.

Seriously, how many other SEC programs are going to have to grapple with parceling out carries to four or five qualified backs in 2021?  Georgia returns four players who finished in the top 30 in rushing yards per game last season and if Milton had played in one more game, he would have finished in the top 30, as well.

I’d call that an embarrassment of riches, except I’m not embarrassed and I doubt Kirby Smart is, either.

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Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Today, in penalties

Interesting statistical tidbit for your digestion…

If I had to guess why, I suppose I’d start by thinking of all the defensive penalties that result in automatic first downs.  What say you?

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Filed under Stats Geek!

Production picture

What jumps out at you here?

The juxtaposition between Clemson and Georgia looks fairly extreme.  Sure, you could say that between ‘Bama and Georgia is even more so, but since they wouldn’t face each other before the SECCG, that probably won’t matter as much.

Also, Florida.

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SEC preseason SP+ rankings

As I said before, I don’t pay for ESPN’s subscription service, so Bill Connelly is unfortunately hidden behind a paywall for me.  Fortunately, Saturday Down South has sprung for the cost and posted Bill’s 2021 preseason rankings.

  1. Alabama (30.7, No. 1 overall)
  2. Georgia (24.1, No. 6)
  3. Florida (21.2, No. 12)
  4. Texas A&M (20.9, No. 13)
  5. Ole Miss (14.9, No. 24)
  6. LSU (14.6, No. 26)
  7. Auburn (14.2, No. 28)
  8. Arkansas (8.8, No. 41)
  9. Mississippi State (8.1, No. 44)
  10. Tennessee (6.1, No. 49)
  11. Kentucky (4.8, No. 57)
  12. Mizzou (4.7, No. 58)
  13. South Carolina (-5.3, No. 90)
  14. Vanderbilt (-12.7, No. 108)

I admit to a bit more nervousness accepting SP+ ratings this year because of the outlier 2020 represents, and those results are baked into those 2021 preseason numbers.  So, it will be interesting to follow Bill’s ratings once the season is underway and the 2021 stats are given greater weight in his calculations.

That being said, there are a few eyebrow-raising items there, starting with Ole Miss ranking ahead of LSU.  Maybe it’ll work out like that, but LSU still has a talent advantage (not to mention Bo Pelini is gone) and that Ole Miss defense was gawdawful.  Arkansas moving quickly ahead of several SEC programs is both a surprise and a credit to the job Pittman did last season.

I suspect by season’s end, Bill will have Tennessee lower on the totem pole than either Kentucky or Missouri, too.

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Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

High numbers

Unfortunately, ESPN’s gone and hidden Bill Connelly behind a paywall, so I can no longer see his SP+ ratings.  His first preseason list was posted today.  I don’t know exactly where Georgia sits, but based on this, I’m guessing pretty damned high.

Screenshot_2021-02-09 Bill Connelly on Twitter

If Georgia finishes the 2021 season in the top ten in offensive SP+, Todd Monken is a golden god.

And, yeah, Bill’s last sentence is spot on.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Getting it together, part deux

Dean Legge:

It took the Bulldogs eight games against power five or major bowl teams to do what Daniels did in four. Georgia’s passing attack in 2019 wasn’t where it needed to be, and that cost Georgia in critical moments of of the season – like when Georgia was upset by South Carolina in a game where it managed only one pass further than 20 yards. That continued to be the case in 2020.

Consider that in the first six games of 2020 the Bulldogs had 15 total passing plays that resulted in 20 yards or more. Five of those plays were touchdowns. Running back James Cook‍, who is certainly explosive, and tight end Darnell Washington‍ had more explosive passing plays in the first six games of the year (2) than George Pickens (1). Once Daniels got behind center the receivers took off – specifically Pickens.

As everyone saw, UGA simply took off. JT Daniels‍ had six explosive plays, with two of them being touchdowns, in his first game at Georgia alone. He ended the 2020 season with 22 explosive passes. Jake Fromm only had 31 explosive pass plays in 2019 against power five foes – and that was in 12 total games to Daniels’ four. Fromm had 36 in both 2018 and 2017.

Tl;dr version:  Todd Monken isn’t James Coley.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

Getting it together

The discussion in yesterday’s post sparked by a question of Monken’s playcalling tendencies got me to wondering a little about how things shaped up last season after JT Daniels was inserted into the starting lineup.

So, let’s start with the basics.  (All stats, as usual, from cfbstats.com.)

  • Georgia’s offense, first six games:  424 plays, 2297 yards, 5.42 yards per play
  • Georgia’s offense, last four games:  259 plays, 1944 yards, 7.51 yards per play

I don’t think you have to go out very far on a limb to notice that the offense was significantly more productive after the change at starting quarterback.

But what about the criticism of running into stacked boxes, jamming up the offense?

  • Mississippi State:  23 runs, 38 passes, 6.7 yards per play
  • South Carolina:  46 runs, 16 passes, 7.6 yards per play
  • Missouri:  45 runs, 28 passes, 8.4 yards per play
  • Cincinnati:  24 runs, 39 passes, 7.1 yards per play

Over those four games, Georgia averaged 34.5 runs and 30.25 passes.  Monken called more running plays in games when the run was working and more passes when it wasn’t working as well.  (MSU is a perfect example, as the defensive scheme was clearly designed to force a rusty Daniels to carry the offense.)  Either way, the average yards per play in each of those four games was significantly higher than it was before Daniels was the starter.

All of that would suggest to me that Georgia’s problems on offense last season were personnel-driven, as opposed to being scheme-driven.  YMMV, of course, but I think Monken deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Seth Emerson pointed out yesterday ($$) that Georgia returns more production on offense in 2021 than it did in 2017.  Sure, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but I think I’ll take my chances on what Monken having a full offseason to get his troops fully in sync will be able to produce.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!