May 21, 2020 · 8:14 AM

Lucky

As Branch Rickey once said, luck is the residue of design.  So what should we take from this?

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1263215523204075520

15 Comments

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15 responses to “Lucky”

  1. stoopnagle
    May 21, 2020 at 8:50 AM

    Don’t forget to scroll down a bit if you go to the link so you can see the B1G teams.

    More importantly, however, tech is ABOVE the line o’ luck. Sad!

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  2. pjmcdonough
    May 21, 2020 at 9:23 AM

    This just seems like an iteration of actual achievement versus predicted achievement. Tech is above because they miraculously beat Miami (was it really miraculous, though? Miami was abysmal) and I’m guessing we overachieved somewhere (versus Auburn? Florida? Baylor?).

    I’m not sure this is luck…if you take away the one dropped pass by Florida in the 4th, I can’t see where much luck was involved in our season. Where was luck versus Cackalacky? Versus LSU when we entered without Swift, lost Blaylock early, and had to play without our #1 WR to start?

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    • Uglydawg
      May 21, 2020 at 10:08 AM

      It’s stupid because it depends on the graph creator’s definition of luck. For instance, it was “Bad luck” that it was raining during the Cackalacky game…or it was bad luck for Swift to be injured..or Blaylock..or Cager. It was “Good Luck” that kept Burrow healthy for LSU. It is “Good Luck” for UGA that Gus was still coaching at AU..You can refer to anything as luck…good or bad.

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  3. practicaldawg
    May 21, 2020 at 10:12 AM

    Someone once said the more wood you chop the luckier you get

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  4. mg4life0331
    May 21, 2020 at 10:30 AM

    If Arkansas can figure out how to stop wasting time painting I’m sure they can climb above the black line.

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  5. Granthams replacement
    May 21, 2020 at 10:31 AM

    “Luck is when preparation meets opportunity “ Erk Russell

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Down Island Way
    May 21, 2020 at 10:32 AM

    “Ol’ lady luck just saved us” is needed all year long, no matter the team or sport, no matter if that team is rated/ranked 1st or 101st, weather conditions, bad clock management, wrong play call (wrist bands)…wrong call by the friggin’ zebras…of the many angles to view that graph, BIG gap between them and where UGA is headed and where UGA has been…and these graphs suck, cause no matter where you look… that sc loss was a really bad look for UGA, more so than the lsu whipping (but then we all fucking ready know that)….

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  7. spur21
    May 21, 2020 at 10:42 AM

    Yet another pointless graph.

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    • pjmcdonough
      May 21, 2020 at 11:37 AM

      Exactly…someone spent a lot of time to prove absolutely nothing. It would probably be a better data point if it accounted for the number of fumbles/fumbles lost and clean interceptions versus tipped/deflections resulting interceptions…dropped kicks and punts…things that actually seem to involve “the way the ball bounces” and that would define “luck”. One of the luckiest sumbitchin games was Cackalacky…tons of luck involved there past poor offensive design, but at least two interceptions to my memory were tipped or just bungled, then a clutch PK missing an overtime field goal. Don’t know if that would swing as great luck for USC or horribly bad luck for UGA.

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  8. Hardcoredawg
    May 21, 2020 at 12:45 PM

    An example of luck to me is being a good team in the shitty ACC. Skate right into the playoff with no real conference threat.

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  9. Sanford222view
    May 21, 2020 at 1:01 PM

    Looks like Auburn still has Gus’ horseshoe.

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  10. Yurdle
    May 21, 2020 at 2:39 PM

    I think this is pretty insightful and helpful.

    Good teams should finish slightly above the line: post-game win expectancy is normally not 100%, so teams pick up a little luck (as the chart counts it) for every close-ish win. Big jumps above the line, though, mean that a lot of close breaks went a team’s way (or vice versa for teams well below the line). Those breaks are rarely sustainable, if everything is held equal. That means that UK should win more games and Baylor fewer next year.

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