May 9, 2023 · 8:45 AM

Rollin’ in the red zone

Can Mike Bobo sustain this level of success?

Ironically, red zone success has typically not been an area of strength for Georgia’s offense under both Bobo and Monken.  Here are the national rankings for red zone conversion percentage I found in cfbstats.com:

  • 2009: 5th
  • 2010:  12th
  • 2011:  60th
  • 2012:  33rd
  • 2013:  38th
  • 2014:  50th
  • 2020:  97th
  • 2021:  50th
  • 2022:  1st

In terms of mating a prolific offense with elite red zone success, last season was an outlier.  Can Bobo maintain the trend line, or not?

23 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

23 responses to “Rollin’ in the red zone”

  1. Anon
    May 9, 2023 at 8:50 AM

    In bobo we trust

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Derek
    May 9, 2023 at 9:03 AM

    The 2009 and 10 numbers are pretty good. Pretty mediocre after that.

    Like

    • Senator Blutarsky
      May 9, 2023 at 9:04 AM

      They are, but I don’t think anyone would describe those offenses as prolific.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Derek
        May 9, 2023 at 10:25 AM

        Ikr? Makes one wonder the importance of the statistic.

        We weren’t very good with Cox, or in Murray’s first year, but rz conversions? Through the roof!!

        I’m going to take a wild guess that rushing defense has a somewhat greater correlation to wins and losses than this one.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Jared
          May 9, 2023 at 10:27 AM

          I saw for the NFL the stats the correlate highest with wins are offensive ppg and turnover margin. Rocket science

          Liked by 1 person

          • Derek
            May 9, 2023 at 11:27 AM

            Everything begins with stopping the run. The league has essentially opted out of rtdb so its baked in that cake a lot of times.

            But making a team one dimensional, then inefficient in the pass game and then making them covert difficult 3rd downs IS football.

            Of course the opposite is true on offense. If you can rtdb, in theory you’ll be a more efficient passing team AND you’ll have fewer or easier 3rd down attempts.

            Like

  3. BA Baracus
    May 9, 2023 at 9:13 AM

    I haven’t looked at any stats to confirm this, but it feels like last season we featured QB run in the red zone far more than in past years (or even more than other situations last year). I wonder how much of last year’s success can be attributed to having the offense be fully built with SBIV in mind?

    Liked by 3 people

    • ant1123
      May 9, 2023 at 9:19 AM

      I agree in addition unlike the previous few years Bennett could make something out of nothing fairly regularly.

      Like

      • BA Baracus
        May 9, 2023 at 9:34 AM

        Exactly. That first TD vs the hillbillies last year comes immediately to mind. The Oregon scramble drill. The TD runs against the chickens and bizarro dawgs where some jock straps were lost. Bennett made a lot of plays in the red zone last year.

        Liked by 3 people

  4. cowetadawg
    May 9, 2023 at 9:18 AM

    Hard to stay at #1 for 2 seasons in a row in that category and that would be true even if Monken were still OC. I’d call it a huge success if Bobo keeps us in the top few. He’s got some gold-plated crayons this year so I like the odds of that happening.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Jared
    May 9, 2023 at 9:20 AM

    QB maturity and continuity likely played a big role in this stat. Stetson knew how to cut his losses and get 3 points and not turn the ball over.
    I didn’t realize we were #1 in the land in Red Zone conversion. Kudos to the backs for ball security as well.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. californiadawg
    May 9, 2023 at 9:25 AM

    I’m not a stats guy but surely our 2014 ranking would be much higher if Bobo handed the goddamn ball to Gurley on the goal line against the cocks.

    Can Bobo sustain last year’s red zone production with a new QB and no Darnell? Doubtful, but I think Monken himself would likely take a dip this year. One metric I hope Bobo can improve upon is turnovers, which we had a maddening amount of last season. Also hope Bobo has our run game humming early. Might be tough considering I think we’re really going to miss Kenny, but it took us quite a bit of time in 2022 to establish a consistent run game.

    Like

  7. Dawg in Austin
    May 9, 2023 at 9:48 AM

    Definitely the most surprising stat of last year, based on past results. And that’s without an all-world RB. Who knew?

    Like

  8. whb209
    May 9, 2023 at 10:00 AM

    It is hard to believe that GA was #50 in 2021. I would have never guessed we would have been that bad.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Dylan Dreyer's Booty
    May 9, 2023 at 10:53 AM

    Any time you score on a play that starts from outside the 20 yard line still counts as 6 points even if it isn’t a ‘red zone’ score. More and more, the only important stat is the score. It’s a pleasant (for some) academic exercise to explain some things, but that’s about it.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. dshillz
    May 9, 2023 at 11:05 AM

    Has anyone seen a good analysis of which statistics correlate most closely with winning percentage? If we can win a national championship while ranking 50th in red zone conversions (where “red zone” is an arbitrary and essentially meaningless concept), I’m pretty happy being mediocre in the red zone…

    Like

  11. practicaldawg
    May 9, 2023 at 11:14 AM

    Insert obligatory fade route in red zone joke

    Like

  12. 69Dawg
    May 9, 2023 at 1:27 PM

    Mr. Obvious here; With the two generational TE’s we had last year not being number one would have been hard. We will lose a lot in the absence of Washington, and SBIVs ability to score with his legs. We will have to be patient with Bobo, Monken is a hard act to follow. Hopefully Carson can run enough to score some, if not put a goal line package in with BVG or Gunner.

    Like