The road to Houston runs through… Knoxville?

Heather Dinich discusses the Dawgs’ 2023 CFP gauntlet.

Agree or disagree with FPI: Agree. Kirby Smart is building an empire poised to be a CFP regular — especially in a 12-team format — but there’s a reason nobody has won three straight national titles since 1936. Somebody will likely prevent Georgia from doing it, too, but they’ll at least get a shot.

Toughest test: Nov. 18 at Tennessee. This game should decide the winner of the SEC East division, and the Vols will have home field advantage as they look to avenge last year’s 27-13 loss.

What the committee will like: More convincing wins highlighted by another stifling defense. This isn’t exactly the most daunting schedule, so Georgia can help itself by leaving no doubt it is the better team against lesser opponents. Last year, Georgia was No. 1 in the country in points margin per game (26.8) and led the nation by outscoring opponents by 402 total points. Even with eight defensive players chosen in the NFL draft — including a record-breaking five in the first round — Georgia returns four of its top five players in tackles, and the top three players in sacks.

What the committee won’t like: A loss to Tennessee. If Georgia doesn’t win the SEC East, its schedule could be problematic — especially if there are ho-hum performances like last year’s 26-22 win against unranked Missouri. Georgia was supposed to play Oklahoma this year, but the game was canceled because the Sooners are joining the SEC in 2024. Ball State was added as a replacement. The Bulldogs open the season with four straight home games for the first time since 1999. If Georgia doesn’t beat the Vols, it needs to hope the eye test and home wins against South Carolina and Ole Miss are enough to convince the committee they’re a top-four team without a division title. Georgia also needs a win against Florida to matter beyond bragging rights.

Like it or not, I think that’s a pretty accurate reflection on what the media’s take will be.  If Georgia loses to Tennessee and the Vols go on to represent the East in Atlanta, UGA’s chances to make the CFP are going to be somewhat dicey.  The schedule will certainly be thrown in their face.  And her “Somebody will likely prevent Georgia from doing it” may be an early indication of the media looking for a shiny new postseason toy to get excited about (although you can certainly argue if the opposite occurs and Georgia is part of the four-team field, that they’ll get their money’s worth beating the three-peat topic to death).

Of course, somebody’s going to have to convince me first that the Vols have a legit shot of winning the East, even if they beat Georgia at home.

“This team, the 2023 team, is still defining itself.”

Preseason practice starts tomorrow and there’s one thing Kirby Smart already likes about his team:  “I love the buy-in. I love the fact these guys being around each other and they love competing and they love football.”  Hey, that’s a start.

Marc Weiszer goes on to list five things to watch in this year’s practice:

• Georgia football starting quarterback timeline

• UGA Bulldogs defense generating a pass rush

• Getting and staying healthy at running back

• Who will be the kicker?

• The competition rolling into the season

The last of those is kind of a double-sided matter.  The September schedule is pillow soft, which raises a question about whether Georgia will pay a price later for not being challenged early.  But it also presents an extended opportunity to let the staff evaluate the pecking order at places like the offensive line that may indeed pay off down the road.

What do you think about his list?  Anything you’d add?

TFW your mouth writes TV checks your ass can’t cover

George, George, George…

Twelve days ago, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff stepped to the stage at the conference’s annual football media day oozing with confidence about his conference’s impending television deal.

The longer the Pac-12 waits, the better its potential suitors get, he said.

The patience of his presidents will, in the end, pay off, he claimed.

The deal will be good enough to keep intact the 10 school members, he bellowed.

“I saw his comments and I was like, ‘Oh my God,’” one TV executive told Yahoo Sports. “Either he’s the greatest poker player or he’s just bluffing.”

You get one guess as to that, and, no, he’s not the greatest poker player.  Not by a long shot.

After months of negotiations and uncertainty, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff on Tuesday presented the conference’s presidents and chancellors with a potential, primarily subscription-based Apple streaming deal for its television contract that expires after this school year, according to multiple sources.

While several options were presented, the Apple streaming deal emerged as the likely leader at this point, bringing some clarity to a lengthy process that frustrated many within the league and ultimately played a role in Colorado’s decision last week to join the Big 12. Monetary and exposure questions still loom, though, and outside pressure from the Big 12 remains.

… According to sources, the first year of what’s expected to be a relatively short-term contract with Apple would start in 2024-25 and begin relatively low relative to the league’s hopes. But the deal, sources said, would incrementally improve and potentially be competitive with its peers in the Big 12 and ACC down the road, provided certain subscription numbers are met.

That “provided certain subscription numbers are met” is doing a shit ton of heavy lifting.  You can almost see the flop sweat on Kliavkoff’s forehead as he tried to sell that to his membership yesterday.  There are two significant financial shortcomings with Apple’s proposal.  One, obviously, is the funding shortage compared to the Big 12’s deal.  The second is just as big a concern.

Biggest blowback on Pac-12’s possible primary Apple media rights deal w/incentive bonuses is it’s “very challenging” for schools to accurately budget annual revenue, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Another Pac-12 meeting scheduled to discuss further

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 1, 2023

No shit.

The rest of the deal really isn’t that much more appetizing.  Apple streaming ain’t like being on Fox or ESPN.  And the idea that subscription numbers for a conference that’s suffered from anemic viewership lately are going to increase substantially on that format seems like a pipe dream.

I wonder what the odds are on the Pac-12 surviving this mess.

Quarterback issues? What quarterback issues?

Evidently, there aren’t any in Gainesville.

— Florida. Mertz was a three-year starter at Wisconsin. Jack Miller passed for 180 yards and was sacked four times in a 30-3 bowl loss to Oregon State.

“This guy has an incredible motor and work ethic,” Gators coach Billy Napier said of Mertz. “He is in the building and he is fanatical about his preparation. That’s helped the competition. I think that’s caused Jack to respond. Jack has had an incredible off-season and he’s in position for a great camp.”

Look out, SEC.  You have been warned.

I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here.

Shot.

In a preseason release to local media, LSU included a bullet point that might seem innocuous but could begin a trend due to the high profile of the Tigers’ football program.

Head coach Brian Kelly will deliver injury reports with probable, questionable, doubtful or out designations on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, along with clarifications on whether the ailment is related to the upper body, lower body or illness on Mondays and Thursdays. Players on the Monday and Thursday reports will then be cited as either available or unavailable on Saturday before each game.

… In the midst of LSU’s renewed transparency, it’s impossible to ignore the growing prevalence of gambling and increased fervor for inside information to gain an edge when placing wagers. Clear and consistent injury reporting can help protect players and staffers from being leveraged for inside information that, if shared, would land them in deep trouble with the NCAA. It also helps with the integrity of the games.

Chaser.

The Story County (Iowa) Attorney’s Office has filed a criminal complaint against Iowa State University quarterback Hunter Dekkers, charging him with tampering with records related to the Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation’s probe into sports gambling.

Dekkers is accused of placing 26 wagers on Iowa State sporting events, including the 2021 football game against Oklahoma State when he was a sophomore backup quarterback, according to the complaint, filed in Iowa District Court for Story County. Dekkers did not play in that game.

The complaint alleges the DraftKings account controlled by Dekkers completed approximately 366 mobile/online sports wagers totaling “over $2,799.”

Dekkers, who started all 12 of the Cyclones’ games last season, would face permanent loss of eligibility under NCAA guidelines that prohibit athletes from wagering on their own games or other sports at their own schools.

Don’t get me wrong — the NCAA has little choice but to crack down on players betting on their sport, let alone their own team.  If left unchecked, at some point fans begin to question whether the sport as a whole is truly on the up and up and once that happens, the death spiral begins.

As for the injury reporting helping with the “integrity of the games”, I suppose that’s true, but the real purpose it serves is for those who want to gamble without having access to inside information not putting their money down at a disadvantage.  In other words, it’s an encouragement for the public to participate in betting.

So, yeah, there’s something of a mixed message in there.  Should there be a concern over the NCAA’s ability to manage that?  Nah.  All you have to do is follow the money; they’ll be right behind it with their policy.

What $68.5 million gets you these days

Here are the upgrades and changes fans can expect to see at Georgia Bulldogs home games this season, according to a press release from UGA:

• New location for Gate 1 and Gate 9. These gates will now be on the Gillis Bridge as a portion of the bridge on the West side, which will now be inside the stadium and a ticketed area on game days
• Gate 9 will now have two entry points: 1) one entering on the bridge at the new gate 9 plaza 2) one entering at the top of the 100 level
• Connection of the South 100 concourse and the West Endzone plaza
• Addition of Grab & Go concession options at Gate 6 and Gate 9 and additional concessions on the bridge for fans in the West Endzone
• Upgraded seating alignment and more seats for disabled fans on the 100 level South concourse
• The concourse from Gate 6 to Gate 9 has more than doubled in width
• New larger and more spacious restrooms on the Gate 9 plaza, 100 level concourse and Gate 6 entry plaza, nearly doubling the overall fixture counts in these areas of the stadium
• Family bathrooms added to the 100 level South concourse near Section 128
• Addition of a sensory room at Section 128 for fans that may need a quiet space if sights and sounds in the stadium become overwhelming

Perhaps the only bit of unexpected news is that a portion of the bridge will be a ticketed area on game day.  That’s gonna cramp the style of folks who want to watch the Dawg Walk or get to the bookstore, but that’s the price of success, I suppose.  The rest of what’s there falls into the general category of “more, better” and will no doubt be welcomed by fans who sit on that side of Sanford.

About that sensory space… I’m not sure I’d light a match in there on game day.  My guess is the alcohol level of people who “become overwhelmed” is bound to be pretty stiff.

Any thoughts?