Taking stock of Georgia’s 2013 chances

Just a couple of quick hitters for your perusal on a mid-Friday afternoon…

First, Marc Weiszer notes that Vegas loves the Dawgs.

Georgia is favored in every football game on its schedule.

Just like it was last year at this time.

The Golden Nugget released 250 college football point spreads today via the blog Kegs ‘N Eggs.

Here’s the breakdown of the Georgia games:
at Clemson -3.5
vs. South Carolina -4
vs. North Texas (no line provided but think like -35)
vs. LSU -6
at Tennessee -11
vs. Missouri -18
at Vanderbilt -10
vs. Florida in Jacksonville -4
vs. Appalachian State (no line provided but again think big)
at Auburn -15
vs. Kentucky -29
at Georgia Tech -9

The line on the Clemson game has swung in Georgia’s favor by almost a touchdown from where it was a couple of months ago, and that’s even with the JHC suspension in the works.  That’s a pretty big move against a top 10 team on the road.  My overall impression is that Vegas likes the Georgia offense very, very much.

Meanwhile, Bill Connelly’s wrapped up his SEC previews with this look at Alabama (summary:  they’re AWWW-SUM!)  But it’s the bit at the end of his piece that interests me more:

As has been done for each conference, let’s wrap things up with a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power at this point in the offseason:

Tier 1
1. Alabama

Tier 2
2. LSU
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. South Carolina
6. Florida

Tier 3
7. Ole Miss
8. Vanderbilt
9. Missouri
10. Mississippi State
11. Arkansas
12. Tennessee
13. Auburn

Tier 4
14. Kentucky

Now Bill doesn’t indicate how much of a gap there is between teams in the same tier, so I don’t want to read too much into his hierarchy.  (By the way, I do think he’s right about LSU, which strikes me as the preseason anti-Florida – a team that deserves more credit than it’s getting.  Yeah, the Tigers lost a boat load on defense, but so did almost every other team in his second tier.  The big question for me with LSU is whether Miles has finally hired a competent offensive coordinator.)  If the gaps are small, then I don’t have too much of a problem with his order there… and I’m glad South Carolina and LSU are heading to Athens this season.

What do y’all think?

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29 Comments

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29 responses to “Taking stock of Georgia’s 2013 chances

  1. I love me some Marc Weiszer! Hey Marc, Were you related to Lewis Grizzard by any chance?

    • Joe

      Don’t sleep on App State…………..See Michigan v App State 2007. Those boys know how to get it done. SHOULD be a beating, but if we let wm hang around it could be trouble.

  2. Ben

    Even if you think LSU has as much potential on offense as the Dawgs, this won’t be the first season under our o-coordinator. This is our Qbs 5th season in this system. Also I don’t know how much LSU lost on offense, but it can’t be less than us. Edge, Dawgs (even with red and black colored glasses on)

    • I don’t think the Tigers have that kind of offensive potential, but it won’t surprise me in the least if they’re better on defense than Georgia. And I expect they’ll be better on special teams, too.

      • Macallanlover

        +1 I never underestimate LSU because of their talent but I think the difference in the game will be the QB edge that Georgia enjoys. Evil Mark’s plan to bait Miles into taking Mettenberg should pay dividends this fall. The only game he has looked capable of beating us was what he did to Bama last season, fortunately that was the only flash of brilliance he has shown thus far (except in Spring Games, of course.)

      • Bryant Denny

        Do you really think “defense>offense” works with LSU vs. Georgia? I don’t. Alabama had the top D in the country last year and had a tough time stopping Murray and Co. I don’t see LSU’s defense being *that* good, but on the other hand y’all will out-score a bunch of folks if need be.

        • Over the past five years, Alabama and LSU have done the best recruiting jobs in the conference. I have a hard time believing there’s going to be a big drop off on defense for the Tigers. LSU’s problem last year was that it didn’t do as good a job of grinding out wins as it did the year before. (Plus losing the wild-card effect of the Honey Badger…)

          I like Georgia at home, don’t get me wrong, but barring some turnover craziness, this one’s gonna be close.

      • Ben

        At this point we don’t know anything about their D’s, but sadly, I have to agree with you on ST. I think we’ll always be a step behind on ST while we have CMR.

  3. stoopnagle

    I would take Vandy +10 right now.

    And probably Tennessee +11, too. It’s on the road and UGA tends to play down to other teams OTR. Especially before WLOCP.

    And I’m close to thinking I’d take South Carolina +4.

    The rest I’d leave alone or lay the points.

    • Macallanlover

      Not as worried about TN -11 but agree on Vandy. I do like the UGA -3 1/2 against Clemson and not surprised they corrected that one. Only fear I have at Clemson is the atmosphere of a huge game at night in the opener. It will be electric, similar, if not bigger than what we ran into in Columbia last year. Difference is, I don’t see them stopping our offense much at all.

  4. Debby Balcer

    Texas A&M lost some big O-linemen and I believe that plus film on Manziel will hurt them this season.

  5. Dog in Fla

    “whether Miles has finally hired a competent offensive coordinator.”

    I’ve got a bad feeling about Malcolm

    http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2013/5/29/4365488/i-believe-they-can-fly-air-coryell-cam-cameron-the-lsu-offense-part-1

  6. Hogbody Spradlin

    So the bulk of money is bet on us for the Clemson game? That’s the reason for the shift in the spread?

    I still don’t understand squat about sports betting.

    • Macallanlover

      Very little money bet at this point, especially by big money guys who are smarter than that. My guess is the early trend was overwhelmingly bet on UGA so they quickly adjusted the line feeling this was indicative of what would occur as the season approached. Not surprising as UGA, and the SEC, has a bigger football reputation. It would only take several dozen UGA bettors placing medium sized bets on the Dawgs while Clem’s Son fans were doing the spring plowing, or waiting on their lottery winnings to come in before hitting Vegas.

      Some handicappers float those lines to see how the public reacts, others offer a line to a few “whales” and see which way sentiment is leaning. It is truly a business/money driven business, not a prediction of outcome.

  7. FisheriesDawg

    Steve Spurred says Georgia’s schedule is too easy.

  8. Alabama’s defense is going to have to gel quickly and the offensive line as well. I think that Georgia, A&M and LSU are on the same talent level as Alabama and that, coupled with the fact that to win the National Championship you have to get lucky a couple of games each season, means that this should be a fun season in the SEC.

    • BigSam

      Uh…..no. Alabama has a full year’s extra roster of scholarship players. Courtesy of oversigning and then cutting those that don’t pan out. Depth is a luxury and UA has it.

      • Macallanlover

        That “extra signing class+” advantage Bama has is definitely a huge deal. I don’t accuse them of anything illegal but cannot understand why this hasn’t been addressed with new regulations. Maybe not enough people understand it because it should be among the top issues that require immediate action. It certainly is a bigger game changer than steroids would be and makes the playing field unlevel. Saban isn’t the only one doing it, but he is the poster child for it. I heard one estimate last year that he had gotten a look at 125 players from which to choose the 85 best.

        • You are one of my favorites, Mac, but I have to take you to task with one of your sentences. :)

          “I don’t accuse them of anything illegal but cannot understand why this hasn’t been addressed with new regulations.”

          I think most folks know that Saban expects his players to get with the program or get gone. What’s wrong with that?

          If he lies or mistreats players, I think the market forces of college football will give correction. Recruiting is too focused and competitive now for him to get a pass.

          Some would read your post to say “he’s outworking us, so let’s reign him in.” I’m sure that’s not what you meant.

          I hope this isn’t too pointed.

          Have a good one,

          BD

          • Macallanlover

            Fair issue for discussion, BD. It isn’t a new one because the philosophical differences are well known. UGA and Florida have spoken against oversigning and have refused to follow the lead of Alabama and others. Some conferences have forbidden it, and I agree with them. While I don’t understand why the SEC and NCAA haven’t taken a stronger stance against it I still feel it is unethical and stretches the intent of scholarship limitations which were instituted to maintain a level playing field. I do not feel it has anything to do with “outworking” anyone at all, if anything it is a shortcut to being held accountable for decisions you made that didn’t pan out the way you wanted….a “do over” or mulligan of sorts.

            There is also the allegations (and I don’t know the details or truthfullness of them) about team doctors diagnosing “trumped up” medical reasons for dismissing scholarship players who didn’t perform up to expectations and to make room for players who had a better chance of contributing. There was also some discussion of this going on at USC as Junior worked to get this most talent from his limited schollies. I realize I am on thin ice here because I have no evidence to support any of the medical “fraud” discussions but this makes sense to me given the over commitment stance.

            I can see why fans of a program could take the position that their coach was “clever” for staying legal while playing on the edges (like a lawyer finding a technicality to get a guilty client off the hook) but you have to see that those who only sign to the number of openings feel severely disadvantaged to programs who have accepted 125 LOIs, or 40 extra. I support the groups who feel you can take in only enough to fill your openings, although I wouold support an increase of 2-3 scholarships to allow for expected attrition.

            • Nice response and I can appreciate the points you make.

              I’m not sure if this is correct or not, but I have a BOL membership and tried to find the last four year’s worth of signees at Alabama: 26, 26, 29, 26. That totals to 107 (2010-2013). The total for 2009-2012: 109. (Again, I’m not sure if I pulled the right numbers or not. First time I’ve ever tried.)

              Those numbers would be versus 25 signees for a four year period, or 100. So 100 could be signed and 85 kept, allowing for “pure” attrition of 15. (I know redshirts also factor in to make the math more complicated, but I’m not smart enough to go through that.)

              I’m old and tired and not sure I would get worked up over the differences of 7 and 9 – i.e. attrition of 22 or 24 vs. 15. (Is that where the allegation of an “extra signing class” comes from?)

              My internet persona tries to act like a simpleton. :) (And I’m from Alabama, so it’s not too far of a stretch.) I like to pretend that Saban is upfront with the recruits and players. I like to think they know what’s expected of them and if they don’t perform, they are out. I like to think that he doesn’t out and out lie to people. Again, I figure that will come out in the recruiting cycle.

              Have a good Saturday,

              BD

              • Bryant Denny, you are obviously not jealous of Alabama enough. You HAVE to come up with some reason why they are winning. It can’t be that they outwork everyone else. It HAS to be that they are either cheating or at least unethical. Get with the program please. Oh yeah have you seen the latest APR?

              • Macallanlover

                I don’t think Saban outright lies either, I just feel he is a stone-cold killer and makes decisions to win, period. The extra cush of the oversigning is the point of difference here, and I feel it should not vary between NCAA members and conferences. I find myself (and UGA) in the odd position of being with Delany’s group and Florida on this issue and against the SEC’s majority. Simply put, the solution is simple, you sign the exact number of the difference between 85 and the number of returning scholarship athletes. As stated, I would support a number 2-3 above that but until that scholly level is increased for all schools I feel each NCAA member should play by the same rules.

                I don’t know the best way to do the math/research either, but in a perfect, evel flow world you would average 21 signees every year. At the numbers given by you, that means Alabama signed a full extra class above that level average over the four years. I understand you lost players for legit reasons, like leaving early for the NFL, but we so did UGA, Florida, Michigan, etc. Doesn’t matter, it isn’t outside the rules so it comes down to how you wish to play it. I just prefer the rules be more specific to have all 120 schools playing this the same way.

                To accskp, if you cannot act civilly, or have some basis in fact for your comments, stay away from me. Your post is shallow and sounds like something I would expect to hear on the FBomb show. I am not an Alabama hater, I respect them in so many ways, but that doesn’t mean I am not allowed to say they may one day lose a game (gasp), or that they may be acting in a way I don’t care for. We don’t all cower in a corner from successful programs, or worship everything they do by putting them on a pedestal. If you need/require that, you are a sad, little person.