Moar bets

BetMGM has posted new spreads on a bunch of college football games.  Georgia has five games among those:

Sept. 7: Georgia 17.5 over Virginia (Atlanta)

Sept. 19 Alabama 7.5 over Georgia (Tuscaloosa)

Oct. 10 Georgia 7.5 over Auburn (Athens)

Oct. 31 Georgia 3.5 over Florida (Jacksonville)

Nov. 7 Georgia 12.5 over South Carolina (Columbia, S.C.)

Nov. 28 Georgia 24.5 over Georgia Tech (Athens)

The general impression there is that the spreads appear to be tightening.  Well, except for the game in Tuscaloosa.

Some other games of note, at least to my puzzled mind:

Clemson plays at Georgia Tech and is a 23.5-point favorite, which is fairly close to the spread in the Georgia game.  Similarly, Virginia travels to Clemson, which is favored by 26.5; not really sure how that explains the spread in the Georgia-Virginia game.  Even weirder, South Carolina is a 23.5-point underdog at Clemson.

The World’s Greatest Meteor Game lands in Knoxville this year.  Florida is a 6.5-point favorite.  Alabama also travels to Tennessee and the Tide is favored by 14.5.

LSU travels to Florida, where it is a 2.5-point underdog.  LSU is also a 2.5-point underdog at home when it faces Alabama.

Mississippi hosts the Egg Bowl; it is favored by 3.5 points.  The Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa.  ‘Bama is a 13.5-point favorite.

Thoughts?

(h/t)

15 Comments

Filed under What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

15 responses to “Moar bets

  1. I’d stay away from laying those high numbers until we see how our new offense is going to function.

    I do have a dime on my DAWGS to win the Natty at 10-1.

    Like

  2. If I were a betting man, that 3.5 in the Cocktail Party looks enticing. I’m betting the spread on the UVA game may be assuming no fans in the Benz and the unknown of a new QB in a new offense. Otherwise, it’s a virtual home game for us.

    I’m curious about the spreads because how are they factoring home field advantage given the unknowns about attendance. If there are no fans, the home field advantage should in theory be zero or a half point at best. If you think games are going to be played with a physically distanced crowd, you would likely shave 1-1.5 off the home field advantage (typically 3).

    Either way, it would seem that road favorites or road dogs getting 3 or less may be good plays.

    Like

    • Took a look at the detailed lines and using my thought process, here may be some candidates (I didn’t look at road favorites with a big number):
      UNC +2.5 @ UCF
      Michigan -2.5 @ Washington
      Baylor +2 @ Ole Miss
      Iowa +2.5 @ Minnesota
      BYU +3.5 @ Arizona State
      Wisconsin +3.5 @ Michigan
      Miami (FL) +2.5 @ Michigan State
      Utah -2.5 @ Cal
      USC -2.5 @ Utah
      Penn State +2.5 @ Michigan
      Notre Dame -2.5 @ Wisconsin
      LSU +2.5 @ Florida
      Utah -3 @ Washington State
      Baylor -2.5 @ Texas Tech
      TCU +1.5 @ Baylor
      Alabama -2.5 @ LSU (I would love the Tide in this case)
      NC State -2.5 @ Syracuse
      Baylor -3 @ West Virginia

      Like

    • If there are major changes to in person attendance, a study of how the Vegas did ATS this season vs. the past would be an interesting study for a sports analytics or statistics person.

      Like

  3. Down Island Way

    You can’t hide from vegas the masterful job that FU is doing in the transport portal arena, it is going to move the FU line allllll year…no matter who they play

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Russ

    Read an article yesterday asking how those neutral site games are going to work if they don’t allow fans. Basically, somebody is taking a financial bath if they don’t sell tickets.

    Like

    • I don’t imagine Gary Stokan is getting a whole lot of sleep over the potential of losing crowds at 3 games this year. Sure, some of the hit gets absorbed by Mickey and the Cathy empire, but the economic hit that the entire downtown area takes as a result is going to be large.

      Like

      • PTC DAWG

        The Travel/Sports/Entertainment business models are in shambles. I really think that many have no idea of the economic impact they have on our economy.

        Like

        • Disney’s CFO said on their second quarter earnings call that they are losing about $500,000,000 every two weeks the US resorts are closed. I assume that’s lost revenue which seems reasonable because the spring break to Labor Day peak was getting ready to hit when they closed.

          For people who say nothing non-essential should open until there’s is a vaccine or a fully tested therapy, they probably don’t even realize the mutual funds they hold in their investment portfolios have holdings in these industries.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Some of us do, but what are ya gonna do? I’m still dumping everything I can into tax deferred accounts, and my advisor says it’ll pay off soon enough. She’s never steered me wrong before….
            My wife and I used the same strategy (and Advisor) when things went south last time, and when it came back as strong as it did it paid off handsomely. I have to admit a little trepidation right now, as we’d like to hang it up in a few years.

            Like

            • Totally agree … I’m buying as well. The problem Disney and Universal have is the longer this goes on and the broader employment and economic environment struggle is that it may not matter whether a vaccine or a therapy is approved … the damage is done because families don’t have the disposable income to go on vacation.

              It’s the same problem any company or organization (cough, cough … the UGA athletic association … cough, cough) that depends on discretionary spending is faced with. It doesn’t matter if events or facilities open, people don’t have the funds on hands or the desire to use credit to buy the product.

              Like

            • If you throw the travel industry in (meaning the airlines & hotels), the new normal (I still hate that term) likely means business travel is going to be curtailed significantly long term. That’s demand that’s probably never coming back to the same levels as companies have figured out that many interactions with customers and business partners can happen virtually instead of in person.

              When you think of those value chains, there’s a lot of wealth destruction coming for those outfits. If I have a hotel in midtown Manhattan targeting business travelers, I’m scared to death about occupancy rates long term.

              Like

              • Got Cowdog

                To put it in technical terms: ‘Zactly.
                The real financial repercussions of this won’t be realized for quite some time, a couple of years at best. I my be way off, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sea change of sorts as to how business is conducted. It will be cringefully interesting in the way a slow freight train derails to watch this unfold.
                As always, some will adapt and make do, some will suffer and disappear, and some will come out smelling like a rose. Hope you and I are the latter….

                Liked by 1 person

  5. 69Dawg

    Well the predictions by many, that in some point in time sports would just be a studio game for the TV viewing public, seem to have come true.

    Like