Let’s refresh. Here’s the current top 13 in the BCS rankings:
- Ohio State
- Virginia Tech
- West Virginia
- Arizona State
We’ve got #1 playing #2 (duh), #3 playing #8, #4 paying #9, #5 playing #10 and #7 playing #13. All at neutral sites (yeah, we’re stretching that term in New Orleans, but what the heck).
Which means that the favorites in the BCS games should be Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia and USC, right? Well, with one exception, Vegas – in the business of getting the public to spread its money on both sides of a bet – agrees with that. The only higher ranked team that’s an underdog in a BCS game is Ohio State.
Now, if you net out the BCS averages between the participants of the games, you find that the BCS ranks the bowl games in terms of decreasing order of closeness as follows: Title Game (.0194), Orange Bowl (.1114), Fiesta Bowl (.1944), Sugar Bowl (.1924) and Rose Bowl (.3040). Do the point spreads match the BCS spreads?
Well, here’s what Vegas says – Orange Bowl (3 – 4 point spread), Title Game (4.5 – 5.5 point spread), Fiesta Bowl (6.5 – 7 point spread), Sugar Bowl (10 point spread) and Rose Bowl (13 – 14 point spread).
Bottom line: the betting public is of the opinion that Ohio State is overrated.