January 20, 2010 · 8:07 AM

Are we beginning to see evidence of a peak in offense?

I don’t want to read too much into this set of stats that I found in a Mike Hugenin post this morning, but still, there’s a trend worth mentioning:

There were no 2,000-yard rushers this season; there was one in 2008, three in ’07 and none in ’06 and ’05.

There were 53 1,000-yard rushers this season. There were 54 in 2008, 56 in ’07, 36 in ’06 and 46 in ’05.

There was one 5,000-yard passer this season, Houston’s Case Keenum. He is just the 10th passer in NCAA history to reach that plateau; there had been two each in ’08 and ’07 and one in ’06 after none reached the mark in ’05.

There were three 4,000-yard passers this season. There were six in ’08 and ’07, three in ’06 and two in ’05.

There were 25 3,000-yard passers this season; that equals the number from 2008. There were 36 in 2007 — which is an all-time, single-season high — 17 in 2006 and 18 in 2005.

There were three 1,500-yard receivers this season; that’s more than in any of the past four seasons (one in 2008, two in ’07, zero in ’06 and one in ’05).

There were 29 1,000-yard receivers this season; there were 33 in ’08, 38 in ’07, 21 in ’06 and 28 in ’05.

Every one of those stats, with one exception, shows a decline this season.  And that one, 1,500-yard receivers, is hardly dramatic.  So, is there anything we can take from this?  Are defenses really starting to catch up to the spread?  Are the clock rules having an effect?  Is it simply the result of college offenses spreading the ball around to more players?  Or is it merely coincidence?

5 Comments

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5 responses to “Are we beginning to see evidence of a peak in offense?”

  1. anonymous
    January 20, 2010 at 10:37 AM

    You need more information and different metrics,

    for instance compare the offensive numbers for spread offense teams vs. non-spread offense teams and by year, even this might not be enough data, you will need to make adjustments somehow due to any change in the rules of the game that will have an impact on offensive production, for instance,

    moving the kickoff back increased the starting field position, defining a relationship between starting field position and yards on that drive may have a relationship worth accounting for.

    The change in the clock rules most likely changes the number of plays per game, does that influence the number of pass plays or run plays per game. And if so, is that why we see an increase in passing yards per game?

    Questions like this will help produce a better analysis, the biggest question is, will there be enough data?

    I would say that without further study as to the causes of the statistics you are mentioning, it’s unclear what is truly going on.

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  2. Mayor of Dawgtown
    January 20, 2010 at 7:41 PM

    My guess (and that is all that it is) would be that the defenses are catching up to the spread. We saw the same sort of thing when the Wishbone dominated for awhile until the D caught up. The decline in passing numbers probably is as a result of teams switching to the spread and in some cases running plays out of the Wildcat. I predict the spread will go the way of the T formation, the Wishbone, the Veer,the I formation and the dodo within a few years as the D catches up and then passes that offense.

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  3. Thomas Brown
    January 21, 2010 at 6:51 AM

    On our Offense under Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo :

    We have beat zero Final AP Poll Top 10 teams.

    We beat 3 when Coach Richt called the plays.

    5-6 vs Final AP Poll Top 25 teams Mike Bobo OC

    We have lost 4 times to teams UNRANKED in the Final AP Poll Top 25 since Mike Bobo took over as O.C.

    If we are going to talk about offenses, can we line up call a play without a penalty and not turn the football over ?

    Have we other than DJ Shockley given any QB here seasoning to take over ?

    Do we have 1 of the 3 QBs for this up-coming season, with 1 meaninful snap, yet again ?

    It’s our offense that isn’t good.

    We will have a Great Defense and Great Special Teams this up-coming season.

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  4. ecdawg
    January 21, 2010 at 6:33 PM

    Hopefully Coach Grantham will have the Dawg’s D do it’s part to accelerate the decline O production.

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