It probably won’t surprise you to learn that in its way-too-early assessment of the SEC’s 2011 season, College Football News has Georgia finishing third in the East with a 8-4 (4-4) result.
What might surprise you is how CFN sees the Dawgs getting there.
Sep. 3 Boise State (in Atl) W
Sep. 10 South Carolina W
Sep. 17 Coastal Carolina W
Sep. 24 at Ole Miss W
Oct. 1 Miss State L
Oct. 8 at Tennessee L
Oct. 15 at Vanderbilt W
Oct. 22 OPEN DATE
Oct. 29 Florida (in Jacks.) L
Nov. 5 New Mexico St W
Nov. 12 Auburn L
Nov. 19 Kentucky W
Nov. 26 at Georgia Tech W
That’s right – wins over Boise State and South Carolina to start the season out, followed by home losses to Mississippi State and Auburn as well as a road loss to Tennessee. How? Well, other than saying this…
1) We’re going off our beliefs about how good we think the teams are going into spring, ball, and of course we can and will change these up a bit as things happen. We’ll do this all again during Preview 2011 time. 2) Remember, there have to be upsets somewhere. No one could’ve ever seen Texas being so bad last year and no one would’ve ever picked Jacksonville State to beat Ole Miss. 3) Remember, timing is everything with schedules. Getting a week off at the right time can change a season and lead to a huge upset.
… no other reason is given. Maybe they think it’s that obvious.
At least they got me to link to them. What do you guys think?
Get The Picture 
What they also say often is that they don’t pick the games in November based on how good they think the teams are in September, but how good they think they’ll be by November. And if they are using that logic, they obviously see us as a fizzle.
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I’m not questioning that they see Georgia fading after a fast start; I’d just like to know why. It’s not been a general pattern under Richt.
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If the Dawgs win the first 2 they’ll be undefeated going into Jacksonville.
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We started out 6-1 in 2001, finished 8-4.
5-0 in 2006, finished 9-4.
It’s happened before.
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Didn’t say it was unprecedented, just atypical.
And you’re using Richt’s first year and Stafford’s first year (which finished on the upswing) as comparisons.
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I think we will beat UT and MSU- the faux dogs lost some good player and their DC.. and Crowell should make a diference ….at least 9 wins
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They’ve got us losing to Florida?
What’s up with that?
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It’s that Charlie Weis magic.
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Not this year.
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I think the losses are a lot more likely against Boise State and South Carolina. I’m not sure Miss St and Tennessee are wins, but I give us a much better chance in those games.
Who knows? Steele was way off last year. Wait for the Orlando Sentinel season preview if you really want to know.
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+1. I’m only listening to that woman from Florida.
BTW, ran in to a colleague from Boise a couple of days ago. He chuckled when I said they better not take UGA too lightly. September can not get here soon enough.
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To my dismay Orlando Sentinel was really the closest in predicting UGA season last year. I will have to wait one more year to determine if they have really good crystal ball as last year. On the other hand the girl that wrote that report may transferred to bigger paying jobs??????????
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I don’t see how we lose to Auburn. Their Defense still was not good last year and they lose a truck load of starters. Including $cam and nick cheaply. I just don’t see how they come in Athens and win that ballgame.
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Auburn was the biggest head scratcher to me. They lose too much from last year for me to worry about that as a loss at this point.
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They lost 38 players from last year’s team. There’s isn’t a chance in hell they beat us.
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Neither will Tennessee… good grief!
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Umm.. they’ve got Miss St loosing their Open Date…I guess that’s supposed to be Awbarn but still…
If this plays out, does Richt keep his job?
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We’re going to be undefeated going into the SECC….guess I’m a sad case but I actually think it is very possible.
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The way we’ve played in Knoxville the last two trips I have a hard time picking us in that game as well.
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I don’t know…UT wasn’t even remotely in the game in Athens last year. And this was against a team that was 1-4.
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Last year’s team was far better at home than on the road too.
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I’ve got a big problem with the prediction of a loss to Mississippi State, given that UGA could have easily won the game in Starkville last year given a fumble recovery here and there. Plus, it’s at home this year. But, whatever, I guess it could happen.
The biggest problem for me on this set of predictions is losing at home to Auburn. Maybe they’re in love with the recruits and JUCO transfers Auburn is bringing in, but with all they’ve lost off of last year’s team, including the players who hurt Georgia most last year, I don’t see UGA losing to them at home. Of course, if their method is limited to “well, some upsets are gonna happen, might as well pick ’em”, I don’t see much point in getting worked up about it.
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4 L’s is not unrealistic given the unknowns on the offensive side of the ball (WR, RB and OL). However, I tend to disagree with where those 4 L’s come. Boise and SC are likely L’s. Another question mark heading into the season is AM at qb. Will he suffer from the sophomore slump? 4 L’s for this squad and staff will be an improvement on what we have seen the past few seasons.
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Pretty much where I am at this silly point of doing picks pre-spring practice. I can see us anywhere from 2-4 losses, and I feel both Boise and SC are more dangerous than UT, FL, and Auburn so I will be happy to start 1-1 and build from that point. Nailing down specific losses is impossible and we could find a way to lose any of those five games.
No reason we shouldn’t compete for the East and SC is the favorite for that in 2011. Optimistically, I say we will win/tie the East (unless SC turns out to be a lot stronger than anyone is predicting.) At home we have a good shot at the Cocks, and that looks to be the most critical game of the year.
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“No reason we shouldn’t compete for the East and SC is the favorite for that in 2011. Optimistically, I say we will win/tie the East (unless SC turns out to be a lot stronger than anyone is predicting.)”
Entirely agree with that.
In fact, it’s hard for me to think that we’ll even lose 3. Two maybe, maybe to South Carolina and someone else. I even think we beat Florida this year.
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We won’t lose three if we are good enough to win the first two, they look like the most difficult on the schedule at this point. I always throw one surprise loss in so I really think 2-3 is the number but I would drop that to 1-2 should we escape Boise and SC. With Murray as the only experienced QB, everything is back in play if he were to be injured and miss a few games.
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It’s weird. As far apart as we are politically, we usually think alike about our football team. I feel a kumbaya coming on.
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You will have to sing it solo, not only don’t know the words, don’t know anyone who does. And that ain’t by accident.
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It goes a little something like this…
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Doesn’t ring a bell but that is the first time since college I have nothing left to throw up. You are on your own.
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I worry a little about State based on TG’s struggles against spread offenses, and most of their offense coming back. Plus where that game falls on the schedule. I’d be worrying a lot more if they weren’t breaking in a new DC though.
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Truth be known, I worry some about all of them. We did a decent job against MSU for, especially the first half. Couldn’t seem to get the ball back in the 2nd, and that was tur all year for our defense. TG having the same problems Monte had with creative offenses, maybe DCs in college should come from the college game.
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I don’t put too much stock in a pre-pre season magazine’s predictions 6 months out – but I need to email them about possibly trading an SCe win for a FL win. I’ll throw in a magazine purchase.
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If UGA can get through the first 2 games with 2 wins, I’m willing to take my chances with Miss St and UT. And a loss to AU? Sure, Malzahn is back, but so is Ted Roof.
It’s not that I can’t envision UGA losing 3 or 4 games. Just not all 3 of those games.
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Me neither.
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Remember, CFN is the site that predicted progress for Notre Dame’s offensive line a year ago, based on the presence of an OL recruit who had died in a freak accident months before. They’re useful as a demonstration of the “infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of typewriters” theorem but not a whole lot else.
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I’m always weary of pre-season predictions (especially this early) because there are always some totally unexpected scenarios that play out every year, but I do know for sure that I will pay absolutely no attention to whatever CFN and Phil Steele have to say about UGA in any pre-season predictions both now and in the future.
I’ve been burned one too many times, boys.
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CFN and Phil Steele can burn you many times but I still like to wait for that girl’s prediction for UGA this season from Orlando Sentinel i.e. if she still works there.
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Andrea Adelson is at ESPN now.
And she was more or less right last year.
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She wouldn’t have been if AJ hadn’t been suspended.
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Thank you.
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Where did she have Florida? I’m pretty sure not at 7-5.
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Auburn had a .711 overall pythag win %. A .637 conference pythag. So they were a 9-3 (5-3) team that thanks to an immense amount of luck in close games ended up 12-0 (8-0) after the regular season.
A 9-3 team losing 36 players and returning fewer starters than any other team in the country?
They will be a complete disaster.
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I can see 4 or even 5 losses, but not to UT and MS; the AU pick is nuts. It is possible that the dogs start 0-2, but even that won’t lead to a meltdown that would include losses to all three of these SEC lightweights (in 2011).
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Did ya’ll watch Georgia play last year? Where the hell is all this optimism coming from? Not that ALL of you are overly optimistic (I saw some four and five loss comments above), but there seems to be a large percentage who have forgotten that Richt’s coaching career is going (has gone) down the toilet. It pains me immensly, but the “Boise Chuckler” had every reason to do so. Georgia lost to freaking UCF – WITH AJ GREEN ON THE TEAM. Georgia is a joke in the SEC right now. Why SHOULD Boise State be worried about UGA? UGA is all hat and no cattle. Is UGA utterly hopeless – if it somehow turns things around mentally? Of course not. Georgia isn’t devoid of talent. Of course the Dawgs have got some players. But UGA had the best receiver it has EVER HAD last year and the best freshman quarterback it has EVER HAD last year and UGA had a LOSING record last year. And if AJ hadn’t gotten suspended, maybe we’re talking 7-6 instead of 6-7. SO WHAT? He’s gone now. We couldn’t win big with him. How are we going to win big without him? You think Crowell is going to make up for the loss of AJ Green? Are you on crack? AJ Green was THE most dynamic player in the country last year aside from Newton. Crowell is an 18 year old who hasn’t proven a thing. Maybe he’ll be great – from your lips to the ears of God. But Georgia still have to play defense. And by “play defense” I don’t mean maximize the number of plays Georgia is on defense by failing to make critical stops. Georgia is NOT going to be beating Boise State, SC, Auburn, Tennessee and Florida next season. When have has UGA beaten all those teams (Boise aside) in a single season when we were GOOD? WAKE UP. GEORGIA SUCKS RIGHT NOW. UGA does battle with the likes of UK. Until the Dawgs prove otherwise on the field, color me 6 and 6 and tell Richt Delta flies to Tallahassee. Ya’ll have been reading about recruiting too much and not watching film of the last couple of years’ worth of games.
Off soapbox.
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Let me respond on behalf of the optimistic. AJ (not wanting to beat him up) hardly played the last 2 years. He missed the first 4 games last season and in the fifth game (COLO) had to come out of the game when it was on the line with cramps because he was out of shape from not playing. He also mailed it in during the bowl game, running out of bounds, etc. Talent? Yes. Performance? No. I would much rather have solid receivers that play every game. To me the receiving corps will be better off without AJ because everybody will have to contribute rather than standing around waiting for their AA to make a play and win the game (when he plays, that is). The real problem on offense last year was an offensive line that was out of shape due to a deficiency in S&C. That now has been identified and corrected. The problem on D was the same as on O–the D line was out of shape, too. That is why the Dawgs couldn’t stop the run up the middle. Again, that has been fixed. Both lines have veterans returning (this time in shape). Murray is now a seasoned veteran and should have a big season. The D got better with each game last season and I look for it to be near the top of the SEC in all stats next season. Is Crowell going to be the next Herschel? I don’t know (probably not–who ever is that good?) but he adds to the backfield a potential dependable runner and will push Ealey and King to get better. Even if they end up splitting time 3 ways, with an improved O-line the running game should be better. UGA has the best punter and kicker is the SEC and had great special teams play all last season (let’s hope that continues). The schedule is the most favorable we have had in years. I don’t care what the so-called experts say, UT ain’t gonna be good. We should beat 3 OOC teams easily (Tech is gonna suck). Of the conference games we should beat Miss State (when was the last time Miss State beat UGA 2 years in a row? The answer: NEVER!), Ole Miss, UT, KY and Vandy easily. Auburn’s team is decimated by graduation–a win for the Dawgs here, too. That leaves Boise, FLA and South Carolina. Florida has a first year head coach and is completely changing its offense. South Carolina–last time I saw them they were getting dusted by about 40 points in the SECCG and getting waxed in their bowl. They were lucky last season because it was a weird year and everybody in the East was bad at the same time. They had 1 good game last season when they upset Bama and that put them over the top to win the East. I’m betting that they fall back to earth this year. Boise will be the most difficult game on the schedule and we have all summer to get ready. Will UGA f#ck up and lose one of the games it should win? Probably as that is Richt’s pattern. But only 1, maybe 2 max. SEC East Champs and SEC Champions maybe, depending on who we have to play. The future is so bright we are all gonna have to wear shades. Any more questions?
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Yes, I watched 2010 UGA. Not very good, but significantly improved over 2009. Check the pythag records.
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One must be careful about that, however. The pythag thing works in baseball because of the large number of games and innings played as well as the large number of opportunities (at-bats). The football season has substantially fewer opportunities. Plus, the games are just flat out different. Football is more about (physically or by skill) imposing your will on the other team, particularly at the end. The stats get skewed by blow-outs particularly if a team plays doormats. That’s how sh!t teams can have good pythag numbers. Does any of this sound familiar?
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There’s been a lot of work done with pythag expectation in football as well. It’s still a far better indicator of overall performance – and is thus a much better predictor of subsequent season records – than are W-L records.
2010 UGA wasn’t a great team. Just a better team than 2009 UGA. Senator Blutarsky (like others) noted all year that we were significantly better in just about every statistical category, wondering how our W-L record could be worse than that of 2009. Well, the answer is that uncontrollable randomness still plays a huge role in the outcome of football games and thus in the W-L records of small sample size seasons as well, with the latter not offering enough trials for the randomness to regress to the long-term mean, as it does in baseball (where pythag records vary at most by mere hundredths of a point from actual records).
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Isn’t that what I just said above? Only you say it so much better and with much more panache.
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Off soapbox? BULLSHIZNIT.
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Just another negative ass UGA fan. We will beat Auburn. They lost everyone. 20 something starters. We are 4-1 against Auburn in the last 5 years. We will beat Tennessee. They are awful. They’re still 2 years away from getting back to prominence. Florida is installing a new offense and a new defense with huge question marks at QB, RB, WR, etc. We should have won that game last year. And finally Boise St… Mark my words.
We Will Dominate BSU. DOMINATE! Get behind your team man. I appreciate realists but your negativity is pissing me off.
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The pattern under Richt usually is fast start equals good year and slow one, well just check out last years schedule!!!
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If we start 2-0, I dont see us losing another one. Maybe Florida.
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I think he got at least one game right!
🙂
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JWalker84 – boy I sure hope you’re right. Don’t get me wrong or peg me as “negative.” I’ve just seen it too many times to buy the following story lines coming out of Athens: “oh, the S&C program is awesome now” and “now we have [insert recruit]” and “[insert badass that left] wasn’t that good anyway” and “the offensive line is going to dominate this year.” I LOVE GEORGIA. Love it so much I got two degrees from it. My old man played basketball there. I just don’t drink red and black koolaid with my breakfast every morning. You should be pissed at UGA for failing you, not me for pointing it out.
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I’m pissed at both. I know your type. Im not listening to story lines. I never do. I dont care about S&C or nutrition. There is no reason we cant be in the dome on Dec. 3rd. The east is still up for grabs this year. South Carolina really didnt impress me that much last year. They backed in to the sec championship game and got hammered. In 6 of our 7 losses last year, we were within a touchdown in the 4th quarter. 12 arrests really does take its toll on a team. Yes it was a terrible year, but it happens. It doesn t mean the program will never see success again. I like our players. I think they will be hungrier and more focused this year. I like Geathers and Jenkins at tackle. I think it will make a big difference. I think year 2 in a new system is the break through year. Last year doesnt mean shit now. Its a new year. We were 5-6 in 1979 and 12-0 in 1980
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