Offensive genius: does the coach make the players, or the players make the coach?

Sometimes I just have to take the bait.

… Florida intrigues, but as much magic as they enjoyed switching offenses under Urban Meyer, the trick might not work the same way with Will Muschamp who is running the same mundane pro-style offense as Ron Zook. That didn’t work out so well.

Really.  Here’s a chart of Florida’s scoring over the last eight seasons, along with its conference rank in that department:

Year PPG Rank
2010 29.3 8th
2009 34.7 2nd
2008 45.2 1st
2007 43.1 1st
2006 28.8 4th
2005 28.4 4th
2004 33.8 1st
2003 31.1 4th

Brian’s narrative might make sense if Meyer’s first year at Florida was 2007, but of course that wasn’t the case.  The reality is that the Gator offense took a modest step back in the first two years of the post-Zook era, and that outside of 2007 and 2008, overall scoring production is fairly consistent throughout both coaching regimes.

And what was the deelio about those two seasons?  Oh, yeah.

… That’s a pretty clear trend line there. What happened between 2007-09? Those would be the years when Tim Tebow was the starting quarterback at Florida. There’s a slight uptick in the rushing numbers from 2005 to 2006 — when Tebow would sometimes spell Chris Leak on running plays — before the number shoots up in 2007. The passing numbers slip a bit in 2008, in part because of an increased emphasis on the run, but overall, things are going pretty well.

Then, Tebow leaves for the NFL, and things head downhill fast. The rushing offense returns almost to its 2005 form. The passing offense craters along with it. That leads to a dramatic decline in total offense and a predictable result in the scoring offense category. Though, in fairness, the scoring offense had declined by about eight points a game from 2008 to 2009.

cocknfire cites Dan Mullen’s departure as being a reason for that scoring drop.  The only thing I’d add is that the departure of Percy Harvin after the ’08 season most likely contributed to that as well.  All of which makes it hard to argue with his conclusion.

… When Tim Tebow was there, Meyer was an offensive genius who managed to craft an offensive machine. When Tebow wasn’t on the Florida sideline, Meyer seemed to struggle to put together a game plan that played to his team’s strengths. Maybe it’s time to acknowledge that the two are probably connected.

And that may actually be good news for the Gators.  Florida’s never going to be subpar from a talent standpoint.  What those numbers suggest is that as long as the offensive coordinator isn’t subpar, the scoring will rank in the upper tier of the conference.  So Weis doesn’t have to be a genius to get improvement.  He just has to be better than Addazio.  That doesn’t strike me as being a particularly high bar to get over.

74 Comments

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74 responses to “Offensive genius: does the coach make the players, or the players make the coach?

  1. TennesseeDawg

    Treebow made all the difference for Crocodiles of the University of the Peninsular State.
    http://video.adultswim.com/promos/squidbillies-tom-treebow.html

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  2. Keese

    I can’t wait to witness this trainwreck

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  3. Biggus Rickus

    I would argue that Addazio wasn’t that much worse than Mullen. He took over a team that lost its best two receivers (with no one capable of replacing them), one of whom was just a generally badass playmaker, and got decent offensive production his first year. Last year, with a horrible offensive line, a hydra at QB and still no receivers they were bad. I don’t care how good Weis is, I don’t see their offense improving much, if at all this year.

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  4. JaxDawg

    Here is your Florida Gator answer:

    Tebow + Harvin + Charlie Strong D = 2 championships.

    Florida isn’t going to regress back to ’79 levels, but they won’t ever see a combination like this ever again.

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    • Reptillicide

      ^ this x1000.

      You’ll hear Florida fans dubbing certain players “the next Percy Harvin” but the truth is there probably won’t be another Percy Harvin anytime soon. Tebow got all the love, but Harvin was a dynamic factor on that team, as was their defense. The 07 squad was just ridiculous. Gonna be hard for them to have all the stars align for them like they did that year.

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    • Murph Dawg

      I don’t think Charlie Strong ever got the credit that he deserved for Florida’s success.

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  5. AlphaDawg

    I’d love to see those numbers just for SEC league play

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    • I had the last six seasons for those, but couldn’t find the numbers for ’03 and ’04 quickly. Here’s what I’ve got in SEC play only:

      2010 – 28.0 ppg, 4th
      2009 – 26.0 ppg, 4th
      2008 – 43.3 ppg, 1st
      2007 – 38.1 ppg, 1st
      2006 – 24.0 ppg, 4th
      2005 – 25.6 ppg, 5th

      Doesn’t really move the Tebow/Harvin narrative much.

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      • JaxDawg

        And what are our #’s over that same timespan? My guess is that we’re close/competitive. It’s the D that makes the difference (no sh*t).

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        • Florida finished ahead of Georgia every year except 2005 and 2010. The closest margin in any given season was more than four ppg. In two years it was in double digits.

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          • JaxDawg

            so we were ahead in ppg for 2 of the 6 years, w/in 4 points for 2 other, and seriously lagging in the other 2. I would guess those 2 would be 2006 and 2009? Thx Sen.

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            • Will (The Other One)

              I’m betting 07 and 08. I don’t think we’ve averaged more than 34/game overall, much less in SEC play at any point, so 38 and 43 would be far more than 4 more ppg.

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      • AlphaDawg

        I wasn’t thinking it would change the trend per the Harvin/Tebow narrative I just wanted to see the delta between that data set and just league play…thanks for the info

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  6. Irishdawg

    2008 featured an aggressive Gator D and special teams that seemed to get at least 2 turnovers in enemy territory every game. Add that to Harvin’s speed and Tebow’s running, plus 2 or 3 games against teams like Charleston Southern, and yeah, they’re going to score a lot of points.

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  7. Go Dawgs!

    A blogger just wrote what he assumed to be true without actually doing the research? Say it ain’t so…

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  8. Mike

    I had some similar comments as the good Senator when I read this article yesterday too. Zook’s first year, the offense was a train wreck in SEC play.

    Except for the UGA game (bubble screen anyone?)

    Zook’s final year saw a pretty damn good offense. Once Zook got rid of Zaunbrecker and promoted Larry Fedora, te offense improved by leaps and bounds.

    Meyer’s first two years, the offense was anything but stellar. The numbers show them to be just above average for the SEC. That said, anyone that claims that Meyer’s offense cannot run without Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin did not paying attention to Meyer’s career. For the Meyer offense to work well, he had to have a running QB. Not even a great one. Just one that would not fall down/slide at the first hint of contact. For example, someone like an Alex Smith.

    Florida has recruited well the last few years. That said, in order for Florida’s offense to look good this year, Brantley will have to play a little more courageous and a little less from the fetal position. The OL will need to step up too. I think the RBs and WRs will surprise many folks.

    I also think Florida’s defense has the opportunity to be pretty damn good, on the premise that an average secondary is greatly bolstered by a great interior line.

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    • Scorpio Jones, III

      Mike, Florida has the opportunity to be pretty damn good every year. Every….Year. The only thing keeping that from happening is coaches with chest pains or some such mental problems or motivational issues that seem to disappear in Jacksonville. The huge leadership vacuum Tebow left may take some more time to fill itself. Us Dawg fans have experience with that….see the Post Herschel years. All you can do is ride it out…and hope.

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      • Mike’s hitting the nail on the head here. To say “Ron Zook’s pro-style offense failed at Florida, ergo all pro-style offenses at Florida will fail” is beyond asinine. Zook’s hires of Petrino/Fedora (or hell, Mike Locksley) show the problem wasn’t Zook in the first place, or at least not his influence on the offense; it was the lousy coordinators he hired. Weis’s system might not work so well in Year 1, but the reason will be spread personnel/transitional issues/Brantley failures, not some sort of Swamp juju that curses any offense that takes snaps under center.

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    • ConnGator

      Agree on the running game. I was a bit shocked that Athlon ranked the Florida running backs 10th in the SEC. I am pretty sure our YPC and YPG will end up in the top six.

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  9. Harvin & Tebow
    Talent makes offenses — always has, always will. Hell, Gary Crowton’s 2007 offense was still a hodge-podge of random playcalling, but with Matt Flynn, Early Doucet, Jacob Hester and an experienced offensive line, it worked.

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  10. Hogbody Spradlin

    Corch did okay at Utah, and with Chris Leak. The asshole deserves some of the credit. But it’s still true that once in 10 year players will make a program. Dorsett, Walker, Jackson, Tebow, Newton. Really top coaches can make bricks without straw.

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    • Mike

      From memory, in the last ten years I cannot name one NC winner that did not have at least one top ten recruiting classes on their roster. However, I can name a LOT of programs with multiple top ten recruiting classes that HAVE NOT won a NC.

      The point? Great talent is necessary for great results. But great talent does not guarantee great results. The difference is coaching.

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      • Puffdawg

        I think the difference in winning a national championship and not is more luck than coaching. Urban’s 2006 MNC season is no more impressive than CMR’s 2002 SEC Championship season. Other than, you know, the Gators were selected to play in the big game.

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        • Mike

          You mean, it is not more impressive other than the fact that one has a trophy and one does not?

          Do UGA fans rally buy into this whole “luck” meme?

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          • James Stephenson

            Of course, both times UF won the Championship in the 2000’s they had 1 or 2 losses. UGA won the SEC twice, both times with only 1 loss. So yes, Luck plays into it. In fact, in 2007 if UGA gets into the SEC Championship game, the way they were playing and it is UGA that probably wins the NC that year. So yes, luck plays a part, look at Auburn in 2004, did they get lucky, no.

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            • Mike

              The 2006 BCS National Title winner recorded a 13-1 record
              The 2008 BCS National Title winner recorded a 13-1 record

              Once might be luck. Twice is a trend.

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          • Puffdawg

            Dude, don’t be a jackass. What did Florida’s unbelievably impressive football team from 2006 have to do with USC choking against UCLA in the final week of that season? No luck there for Florida, right?

            http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/year/2006/week/14

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      • Hogbody Spradlin

        Mike: Logic 101. Talent and coaching are both necessary conditions, but neither is by itself sufficient.

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  11. Except Myer also had great offenses at Utah and Bowling Green. Oops.

    Do you actually think Tim Tebow throw and runs for 55 touchdowns if he had been in an I-formation pro-style offense?

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    • Biggus Rickus

      Of course not. It doesn’t focus so heavily on the QB’s ability to run the football. A running back is also not going to gain 1,500 yards and score 20 TDs in a spread, at least not the way Florida ran it.

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    • Meyer didn’t exactly see the same kind of defenses week in and week out in the MWC and MAC that he saw in the SEC, did he?

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      • Oh geez. Meyer beat up on MWC and MAC defenses with MWC and MAC offensive talent, not with SEC talent.

        Florida suddenly dominated the SEC when it went to the spread. It always had talent, but it wasn’t using the talent correctly until Meyer got there. Even Stevie Wonder can see that.

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        • You’re missing my point. Actually, you’re missing two points.

          First, my mid-majors comment. That’s where I expect the spread to do the most damage, because spread offenses can isolate and exploit individual talent gaps. That’s a much tougher proposition in a conference like the SEC, where the quantity of good defensive talent is much higher.

          Second, “suddenly dominated”? Seriously? That’s not what the scoring numbers indicate. UF’s scoring declined in the first two years under Meyer. The best two years came with Harvin and Tebow in the starting lineup (and remember, Florida didn’t win the East the year Tebow won the Heisman). Scoring declined in ’09 and ’10. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Florida still ran Meyer’s offense those two seasons, right?

          To recap:

          Florida in 2005 didn’t win the East. Scoring down from last year of Zook.
          Florida in 2006 won SEC. Scoring down from last year of Zook.
          Florida in 2007 didn’t win the East. Scoring up dramatically behind Tebow as starter.
          Florida in 2008 won SEC. Scoring maintained at high level of 2007.
          Florida in 2009 won East. Scoring declined by more than a TD per game, although still well above average by conference standards.
          Florida in 2010 didn’t win the East. Scoring declined back to pre-Tebow level, 8th best in conference.

          I count two SEC titles and one division title in six years. That’s obviously very good, but dominant? ‘Bama was just as dominant running the pro-style offense you call mundane. Besides that, it’s hard to see how you can attribute the ’06 title to the spread. The Gator defense kicked major ass that season.

          Meyer is clearly a great head coach. I’m not so sure he’s the offensive genius you paint him to be. You raised a hypothetical about Tebow, let me give you one in reverse: how many points do you think Florida would have scored in ’07 and ’08 with Brantley as the QB?

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          • James Stephenson

            I think if Brantley would have been their starter, they would have custom fit the Offense for him, much like they did for Leak. Leak ran a more pro-style and less spread option, mainly because Leak was a passer period. Of course, it would have taken Mullen to do it, CUM’s true offensive genius.

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          • I find it amazing that you continue to miss my central point in this discussion, which is that scheme is a key element of college football.

            Your first point about the spread and the SEC vs. other conferences is patently false. The spread has had no problem exploiting defenses in the SEC. In 2006, just when the spread was starting to hit the league, only one team (LSU) averaged more than 30 points per game. By 2010, 7 teams averaged more than 30 points per game and 10 averaged 29 or more. But, if you want to continue to pretend that the advent of the spread has had no effect on the SEC (as I predicted it would), go on ahead.

            As to your second point, I would consider winning two national titles and a Heisman while piling on 13 wins or more three times in six years is pretty damn good. In fact, no team in SEC history has ever won 13 games three times. But it happened all of a sudden starting in 2006.

            You focus quite a bit on raw numbers without trying to explain them. In 2005 and 2006, Meyer still had personnel left over from Zook’s tenure that weren’t suited for his offense. He won a title anyway and scored 38 and 41 in the two most important games of the year to close out the season. Meyer went out, got the players that suited his system (just like he did at Utah and BG) and dominated with them. It’s pure sophistry–and revisionist history–to claim that Tim Tebow could’ve gone to any system and been as effective.

            Bama has not been just as dominant running a pro style offense. In fact, Bama runs out of the pistol something like 40% of the time and runs the Wildcat and other spread variations quite a bit, or perhaps you missed Mark Ingram’s big game against South Carolina in 2009?

            As to your final point, I’m sure Brantley would not have been as good in the spread as Tebow. He is not suited for the spread and it was a mistake for Meyer to recruit him. Just because he (with the vital help of Mullen) was innovative offensively does not mean he doesn’t make mistakes. But, there is far more data to reveal that Meyer could’ve won big even with a guy like Brantley since he did win a title with Leak.

            Now, if you can kindly tell me how many touchdowns running and passing Tim Tebow would produce playing for Mark Richt, then we’ll be getting somewhere. Anything less than 55 I think should be an implicit indictment of that system, don’t you think?

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            • Biggus Rickus

              2006 is a bad starting point. The stupid clock rule changes suppressed plays and points per game.

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            • Biggus Rickus

              Tebow accounted for roughly 78% of his team’s TDs. No, that would never happen in a pro-style offense. Also, while I don’t have the stats, I am pretty sure you’re making that shit up about Alabama running the pistol 40% of the time, probably because they’ve been successful against your claims. The pistol is also not the spread. LSU runs the pistol quite a bit and their offense has sucked. Stop overstating your case.

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              • adam

                nevermind that many of those TD’s came from 3 or fewer yards out while running up the score. every time they got inside the 5 they ran tebow for 6. he’s a powerful runner but he’s nothing more special than that when it comes to rushing. just worked to his advantage that, as a running QB, they could have more blockers. that and his asshole coach would score 60+ on scrubs and tebow would have like 6 TD’s in those games.

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            • hodgie

              Cfbdude, Are you being serious? The spread system is great, I doubt any system is truly terrible. But you’re making yourself look like a goober by saying banks is in the pistol 40 percent of the time. Your credibility is sinking fast. No matter what scheme you have to have players andd coaches to run it

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            • I find it amazing that you continue to miss my central point in this discussion, which is that scheme is a key element of college football.

              Trust me, that’s never been the problem in our back and forth.

              You’ve managed to get this discussion off the beaten track. Go back to the original quote to which I responded:

              … Florida intrigues, but as much magic as they enjoyed switching offenses under Urban Meyer, the trick might not work the same way with Will Muschamp who is running the same mundane pro-style offense as Ron Zook. That didn’t work out so well.

              Can you explain to me how Florida’s scoring stats over the past eight seasons bear that out? Or how Florida’s stats over the last two seasons, compiled with Meyer’s players, bear that out?

              By the way, it’s funny how you now blame personnel for Florida’s poor showing in scoring back in 2006. Back in the day, you claimed that Florida’s inability to score big (that Gator team was the first ever to win the SEC without scoring 30 or more points in a regular season conference game) was a matter of choice by Meyer.

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      • Mike

        Meyer didn’t exactly have SEC caliber offensive players, either, did he?

        Meyer won over 100 game in 10 years. With three different programs. Two of which were struggling before he got there.

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  12. Dog in Fla

    “That doesn’t strike me as being a particularly high bar to get over.”

    Rumors are that the Yahoo!Sports.com SEAL team, on a little R&R from the demolition of Chip Kelly, located some circa 1910-1930 black and whites. This shot shows that one of these three 40-yard low hurdlers may have been Charlie’s grandfather or great-grandfather on the minnow-sized side of the family, not the Big Tuna side. Although they have not seen any of Charlie’s recent workouts, they have concluded that based upon theoretical genetics and an unsworn interview with Willie Lyles, Charlie should be enough of an athlete to jump over a bar that is not particularly as high a low hurdle

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  13. Hobnail_Boot

    Tebow was their Herschel.

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    • Dawg Pound

      A lot of Gators I know still regard Wuerfful as the biggest legend in UF’s history. In any event, why is this even a debate? Isn’t it self evident that a guy can be a great coach, but needs talent that fits what he is trying to do? The old example of Tommy Frazier being a much better QB than Marino, Aikman and Montana combined for what Nebraska was running in their peak years comes to mind. We can all agree that UF’s offense would have looked markedly different if the qb Meyer recruited to suceed Tebow hadn’t transferred to Auburn, right?

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  14. Will Trane

    Dan Mullen can damn sure coach an offense. Period. Let’s see how those MSU dogs do this season. Some think they will contend for the West. I’m in that group. For me alot of UF’s success was Mullen. Granted Mullen has had no Tebow at MSU so far, but he can still run an offense. If Newton had not gone to Auburn but to MSU where do you think Auburn would have finished. Both Auburn and MSU have very good offensive coaches. Whether you like them or not, that is a fact to live with.

    I think the coach makes the offense. But the skill of players can move their success up a notch.

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    • Biggus Rickus

      I think Mullen’s a good coach, but MSU won with smoke and mirrors last year. I think they fall back to 6 or 7 wins this year.

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      • Dog in Fla

        I still can’t believe Jeremy didn’t hire him when they got shet of Irvin. Maybe Mullens irritated him when he left for Mississippi State or when he thumped Florida 10-7, or both.

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  15. Yurdle

    If I had the data, I bet the departure of Harvin cratered Florida’s ypc numbers. It seems like half of Tebow’s completions went to Harvin running a crossing route. Tebow would throw the ball to the umpire, catch Harvin running across the middle, and Harvin would dodge/burn every defender twice. With Harvin gone, Tebow had to become more of a pocket passer (though James, Demps, and Rainey can all run the same routes) or rely more on Hernandez from the TE spot.

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  16. W Cobb Dawg

    Two questions. Is Tebow still a virgin? And are there really stem cells in the energy drink he hypes?

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    • Mike

      I don’t think he is a virgin. After all, he was UGA’s Daddy three of the four years when he played at Florida

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  17. Mike

    So, we seem to have a conses us. Of sorts.

    Florida’s success is apparently ONLY due to

    1.) Tebow
    or
    2.) Harvin
    or
    3.) Strong
    or
    4.) Mullen

    Now that they are all gone,Florida will be terrible. I guess.

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    • James Stephenson

      No, we are saying they are the reason that CUM was successful. No one here is going to say Florida is gonna suck. I like to think Strong was a big part of those two championships. That man could coach.

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    • Hogbody Spradlin

      Everybody knows that Mike.

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    • D.N. Nation

      Florida was an OT INT better than Georgia last year. Which, while not terrible….

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  18. Otto

    Charlie Strong had some good defense but he was DC beginning in ’03 under Zook. ’04 the Crocs Pass Defense ranked #8 in the conf and rushing defense was #7.

    Did Strong later learn how to coach, better players, or did improvement in special teams and offense put the defense in better field position and ability to rest? I would wager it was mostly improving in the other two aspects of the game. Yes I do think Strong is a very good DC.

    Further I would argue that Mullen would have more of an impact than offensive stats alone can show. Croc blogs were posting break downs of Adazios play calling and blasting how predictable the play calling was. If a UGA blog did that for Bobo, they would be accuesed of not being real UGA fans. Mullen has gone on to make the Bizarro Bulldogs a real threat….that takes some coaching talent on its own. If UGA does go after a new coach Mullen is at the top of my short list, assuming he is clear of any Cam Newton NCAA drama.

    Bring the spread to UGA. UGA has the agile QB, and shifty back in Thomas to be used like Harvin was. Charles can be lined up in the slot or TE. UGA’s RB are good but none have the power of an Ingram, Richardson, or Charles Scott to run a slow power Pro style attack.

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