I urge everyone who’s ever made the comment that “based on recruiting, Georgia ought to be in the hunt for championships regularly” to read this post by Bud Elliott.
Yes, based on the number of blue chippers Richt has signed over the last four classes, Georgia is an élite recruiting program. But, as this chart illustrates…
Blue chip % Odds to make Playoff Alabama 77 +190 USC 70 +340 Ohio State 68 -350 Notre Dame 67 +600 LSU 61 +550 Florida State 60 +260 Michigan 59 NL Auburn 56 +350 Texas 55 NL Texas A&M 54 NL UCLA 53 +600 Georgia 51 +450
… there are four other programs in the SEC that have recruited at a higher level. And Florida would have been a fifth, except for its very recent fall off. You may notice that, with the exception of TAMU, those are the schools that have been crowding Georgia out of what some of you see as its natural birthright. Maybe that’s a coincidence, though.
This would seem to reinforce the background chatter I was hearing upon Pruitt’s arrival about the Georgia roster’s relative lack of strength compared to some of its conference rivals. So perhaps the lesson to be taken from this is that before we rip the coaching staff up for things like lack of preparation, dumb play calls at key times or lack of fire in the head coach on the sidelines, we ought to keep our eyes on the prize.
In other words, it’s the recruiting, stupid.
Get The Picture 
yes, but……….
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Remind me–who is in charge of recruiting?
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The point isn’t who you blame, Mayor. It’s what you blame about that matters.
I’ve long thought roster management has been Richt’s Achilles heel.
But put Georgia in almost any other conference and I’ll bet he’d have a lot more to show for his efforts than what he’s done in the SEC.
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Well just using all the scholarships now is a giant step in the right direction.
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It’s not the recruiting, it’s the dismissals. Put the Thug back in ThUGA. #warbulldawg
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We are currently more talented across the board than we’ve been in a while, and I believe that will translate to competing at a higher level. Take 2008 for example. We felt good about Knowshon and Ellerbe, but when Ellerbe went down we were very thin at LB, and when Knowshon came out of the game, the drop off to Samuel or King was noticeable. Think about our LB corps now and the stable of backs we have.
We’re just deeper, and we HAVEN’T been as talented as we’d like to believe. The SEC limit to 25 schollies has helped us, and we’ve revamped our recruiting practices. We missed out on DeShaun Watson because we offered him too late. We might still miss out on a kid now, but it won’t be because we offered late.
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FWIW, both King & Samuel were 5* coming out of high school. Gurley was a 3* until midway through his senior season when he was bumped up to a 4*.
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Very true, but Samuel was a 5* at linebacker, really. The point is now we have 3 5* guys and it’s clear they’re a step up from that crew. Recruiting is a funny business. There are busts and surprises, but I’m of the belief you can’t use too many 5* kids.
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A couple of thoughts on this. One, this blog does not focus on recruiting (both ours and our competitions) as much, so maybe we don’t always see the entire picture every time our 10 win seasons don’t match our expectations? (not that I want you to start focusing on the decision of every 17 year old from here on out Senator).
Second, the “Where is the National Championship with all our amazing recruiting” crowd (just about everyone on the radio these days) need to get their facts straight and perhaps focus the criticism on recruiting and roster management….this also means we need to acknowledge the changes that Richt has made in this department recently.
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Have no fear on that front.
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Thank you to Bud Elliott for doing the homework i was too lazy to do myself. The data shows what I’ve suspected for a long time: Our on field results have been good but not great because our recruiting has been good but not great.
You can’t win championships without elite talent and we’ve arguably never had elite talent under Richt. If you did an analysis of nfl talent production I’d imagine the list works look more or less the same especially if you weight for where in the draft players are selected.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the accurate criticism is that the coaching staff under Richt hasn’t brought in and developed enough talent to/in Athens and needs to do a better job on the recruiting trail (softening ourdidiscipline policies would help too ). But please spare me the “talent is not an issue at UGA!!!!” meme. It’s only a view spouted by the lazy and misinformed.
In addition the chart provides a sobering view of our chances at a championship this year. Doing so would most likely mean going through the likes of Alabama, OSU, FSU, and for UGA to win those games they would be upsets, no other way to define it. A team can pull off an upset in one game but 2,3, or 4 in a season? Unlikely.
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So, less than optimum recruiting got us beat by USCe and GT last year? I’m not buying that stock.
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That’s your take on this?
Thanks for being that “when you’re a hammer, everything looks like a nail” guy.
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USCe and GT haven’t exactly been crowding us out of our birthright have they? OK, Florida has a lot of talent, and they all decided to show up last year and put a whooping on UGA, but other than that game, I don’t see where this post correlates to how Richt and Co. ended up watching the playoff from home LAST YEAR. They lost to two teams with inferior talent, one of which has nothing but a bunch of 3 stars or less on the team. If we had made it, and lost in Atlanta to ‘Bama, then this argument makes better sense to me. Sorry.
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Georgia’s managed to get to the SECCG without beating SC. More than once, as a matter of fact.
And Richt is 12-2 against Tech.
Thanks for hammering.
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Did you even attempt to understand my argument? Like I said, recruiting had jack shit to do with Richt not getting to the SEC championship last year. 2012, losing in the SEC title game? Sure, you bet. But your comment was to “before we rip the coaching staff up for things like lack of preparation, dumb play calls at key times or lack of fire in the head coach on the sidelines, we ought to keep our eyes on the prize.” Since recruiting did not AT ALL lose those games against GT and USCe last year, I feel justified in moving on to those other reasons you mention. You are welcome!!!
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It’s not that I don’t understand your argument. It’s that your argument’s got nothing to do with the post.
Except for the blaming Richt part. And you nailed that. (See what I did there?)
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My dad was a carpenter. No kidding.
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Dude’s got a point, Senator. Whether a recruiting class is #1 or #7 in the eye of Rivals is pretty subjective. Either way, the games lost by the Dawgs last year were not lost because the Dawgs had talent inferior to the teams that beat them. I question the accuracy of these recruiting class rankings any way. If Georgia has gotten the ball into the end zone in the 2012 SECCG would people be saying that the Dawgs players were inferior to Bama’s no matter what Rivals’ recruiting score for the respective classes was? The truth is how good you are is shown by results on the field. You can have a team full of guys Rivals says are 5 stars and named a number one recruiting class but if they don’t perform and lose a lot of games, were they really 5 stars and were they really the best recruiting class?
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Mayor, forgive me if I’m not sure about the point you’re making here, but you’re not trying to say that Alabama and LSU haven’t outrecruited Georgia, are you? ‘Cause if you’re not, then this doesn’t seem germane to my post.
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Yes, that’s exactly what I am saying. If Georgia had beaten Bama in the 2012 SECGC (it was close and the Dawgs had them dead to rights) and since Georgia already beats LSU and Auburn often, even though those programs get higher ranked recruiting classes all the time, doesn’t that mean that Georgia is really recruiting on par with them? I might agree that Bama recruiting classes have been better simply because Bama has had better game results than everybody else–period. But the others? It’s really subjective. The premise is that coaching doesn’t matter and I don’t agree with that. As Bum Phillips once said of Don Shula: “He can take his’n and beat your’n, and he can take your’n and beat his’n.” The truth is that Bama has been better than the rest of the SEC (with rabbit’s foot exceptions) for the past several years because Saban is the best coach in the conference. That manifested itself in excellent recruiting but also in every other aspect of the program as well. In short–It ain’t just recruiting. It’s what the coaches do with what they have to work with, too.
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I believe thare are many more variables to consider. Keep recruiting quality equal and i think Richt wins a hell of a lot more than he loses. I get it–those loses sting. Lots of blame to go around. FL was a perfect storm last year. Can’t blame recruiting, bonehead play calls, or any one thing. How do you attribute boneheaded play calls against a USC team that plays 9-11 points better against UGA than anyone else on the schedule. Spurrier deserves some credit.
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Nice double down.
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It’s called large and small sample sizes discussed in statistics 101.
If Georgia is more talented than every team on its 12 game schedule and has a 75% chance to win in every game it doesn’t mean Georgia will go undefeated it means Georgia will most likely go 9-3. The point of recruiting and player development is to push that percentage up. It does not mean that in a sample size of one game the 25% (i.e. an upset can’t Happen). It means that over a large sample size like say a season results revert to their mean. Or to put it another way if we’d recruited better we could’ve overcome an off day in Columbia or a tight game in Athens but out talenting the opponent and we’re talking about a squeaker win instead of a loss.
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That’s almost a great example. The problem is; we didn’t have a 75% chance of winning every game last season. If it were possible to really place a statistical number on the SC, Florida and tech games, the probability of a win would have likely been more in the 90% range. We were pretty big favorites to win all three of those games. I would say Missouri and Arkansas were more like 75% probabilities of a win.
If we were losing to the teams in the conference that have recruited better than we have in head to head matchups, this article would be more pertinent. I don’t, and I don’t think many people do, have a problem when we lose a game to a team that is equal in talent or superior in talent. The maddening thing about Georgia football under Richt is the losses to teams we are more talented than.
We aren’t wondering why we can’t beat Bama, LSU and Auburn in the SEC championship game, we’re wondering why we can’t beat a SC team that wouldn’t be bowl eligible if they hadn’t beaten us, tech after we take the lead with 18 seconds, the worst Florida team in 30 years, etc and get the chance to face LSU or Bama.
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I hate Tech as much as the next guy but if you people think they were one of the worst teams we played all year you’re letting your hatred cloud your judgment. They played in the ACC championship and damn near beat FSU too. They lost two inexplicable games midseason and should have lost in Athens (fumbles killed us, not coaching)….but they beat VaTech (who beat Ohio State), beat Clemson (with the greatest QB ever to come out of the state of Ga playing until he got hurt….AGAIN) and absolutely crushed Miss St (the best team in the land for a few weeks). All of you who continue to beat this drum that we lose a game we should win still refuse to look around and see every other team in college football doing the same thing…and you’re ignoring the fact that when favored in all games, any loss fits this category. You people go back through the years and add in teams that were either clearly better, ranked higher, favored, or any combination of those things to try and strengthen your argument. No amount of facts or debate will get you to look at the reality of the situation……you’ve got your answer already and only the facts that support it are worth looking at. You folks must be a blast to watch games with every fall!
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“You people”…..”all of you”…..”you folks.” LOL.
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I think the dude makes good points..unlike mankind.
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This dude doesn’t abide.
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I think what you are missing and this article is trying to explain is that UGA is not significantly more talented than a lot of teams on their schedule. The frustration with Richt is the assumption that Georgia is more talented than every team it plays. This article and post is trying to correct that assumption.
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I get your frustration, I really do, but I don’t know why all these losses are laid solely at the coaches’ feet. No way the call for the squib kick vs Tech cost more than the two fumbles, no way merely calling a pass play at SC cost more than the grounding penalty by Mason or the missed FG by Morgan.
Grousing about a single offensive play call in a game (SC) where your
OC and offense has scored you 35 points is a bit nuts.
Those two play calls have grown in our imagination to the level of impossibly stupid boneheaded blunders, but they were not in that category – not even close. Our coaches didn’t let time run out before calling a TO or leave a hobbled QB in the game when he can’t throw (Ark. last year, I believe?).
They may have made some 40/60 inadvisable decisions, but to act like the coaches were a bunch of buffoons who personally cost us three games is just not true.
The TEAM didn’t play its best games against SC and Tech – in the case of the former, our defense was still getting its legs with a coach who’d only coached them for one game. Pruitt’s prevent defense in the 4th against Tech, squib kicks, whatever – these were a handful of questionable – not irrefutably stupid – decisions out of thousands of solid decisions by our coaching staff, many of which undoubtedly secured wins.
Florida was also a TEAM loss. Yes, TEAM losses include coaches, but not only coaches.
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If it were only those three games I’d agree with you. Our problem is a year after year thing. We recruit better than most any team we play and our fans love to talk about how good our recruiting is. Then, when we lose with those recruits, some fans say our players really aren’t any better. Why bother with recruiting rankings?
When we lose games due to bonehead play calls, we hear “look at how many good calls they made”. Isn’t that sort of like defending a drunk driver who kills someone by saying “he’s driven hundreds of times when he’s drunk and has never hit anything”?
Our coaches get paid many millions of dollars to make good decisions, they are not like a bunch of rec league volunteer coaches who just try and do their best. I really think this gets lost with a lot of people who defend the poor decisions and play calls.
We are paying coaches millions and millions of dollars, we have top ten recruiting classes every year, we have all the resources any program could want and we still manage to lose to teams we should beat in games that matter a lot. We are NOT generally losing to teams with better athletes, that’s the problem. If we WERE losing to the Bama, LSU, Ohio States of the football world, our lower recruiting rankings would be a legitimate reason. We are not losing to those teams.
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I get your point and think it’s valid – for whatever reason, we shouldn’t be losing to those particular Fla, Tech, and SC teams in a single season. I think the 90% winning probability for those games is too high, however, and I bet if you think about it you do, too.
But I think we’re too quick to say such and such in game decision cost us the game. I’d argue overall preparation or getting the teams ready to play is a more damning argument than a single call here or there.
But the point of the original post is our recruiting hasn’t been top 5, it’s been top 10 or so, and most years we’re finishing about even with our recruiting, IIRC.
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It’s about depth. We need to recruit more blue chips………..but I sure as hell don’t want to talk about it till they sign………….
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Since Stafford and Moreno left (which to me seems like 10 years ago), we’ve only had three players chosen in the 1st round in the NFL draft, and only 1 in the top 15 (AJ Green). The other two were chosen around #17 and at the very bottom of the first round (around #31, if I recall). For a school like ours in the talent heavy SEC, that is absolutely pathetic.
To put it in perspective, the Washington Huskies, a mediocre at best program since Don James retired and in some years a terrible one, just had three of its players taken in the 1st round a few months back. So basically they’ve had as many players chosen in the 1st round of the NFL draft as we’ve had in the previous 7 NFL drafts combined.
I could go on, but if those two bits of info alone don’t convince you that we’ve had a glaring problem in recruiting, well, its rather pointless continuing any such discussion.
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Also to add a little color, in the 2013 draft (after our 5 yards short) Alabama had 3 players selected in the first round before anyone at Georgia got picked. THAT is why our best effort still wasn’t enough to beat them.
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Well, as senator and others have astutely pointed out, let’s not spend too much time comparing us to Bama, as they’ve been an absolute machine led by one of the very best CFB coaches ever. But even compared to our contemporaries, we’ve badly come up short.
The reason I mentioned UW was because one of my best friends is a Udub grad, and brought that little nugget to my attention during the draft. Now, he wasn’t doing it to make fun of UGA, but more in astonishment that his Huskies, a mere shell of a program compared to UGA and our absurd advantages over them, were churning out as many or more top round picks as we were. He simply couldn’t believe that we’ve been as poor as we’ve been in the talent front.
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Where you go in the NFL draft depends on the team’s that pick early and what positions they need too. Some of our lower licks have done really well for themselves in the NFL- Justin Houston being a good example.
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Picks not licks.
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Gurley was 10th, not that it invalidates your point.
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It does when you use 2015 draft picks from another school as your main proof of our failure and leave out the UGA player drafted ahead of all of them!
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The question that matters is talent relative to our peers. The SEC has been drawing in tons of talent during its rise this past decade or so. Much of that talent has come from our state, and specifically ATL. UGA has not profited as much as it should have from this enormous talent pool. I agree that this is part of the “big picture” and one reason why our peers have risen to prominence more than we have. But I also think that UGA has had some incredibly talented teams that could have and should have won an SEC title over this past decade. This is not “either/or”, but “both/and” to me, with recruiting being only part of the picture. Another part of the picture, our off the field issues, has been addressed, and I hope the recruiting deficiencies will also soon be addressed as well.
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Everybody knows recruiting is huge. But that’s one parameter out of many for making the playoffs.
Name recoginition…Sports Media bias… These two factors alone give teams like ND, Ohio St. and USC a leg up. In fact, they outweigh a true indicator..strength of schedule.
Look at Dodd’s comment in the CBS Sports article the Senator posted a link to this morning. He basically said that Alabama must beat Georgia for the SEC to have a team in.
That’s some very early politicing to get Dawgs excluded even if they win the SEC. These guys have been very jealous for a very long time and now see the chance to work their bias to success against the SEC.
Georgia’s recruiting has been good enough to get into the playoffs were they in a weaker conference. If Georgia was in the ACC, I’d love the chances of being in the WSOCP every year…and win it more often than not.
How good would, say, Michigan’s chances be if moved to the SEC? And how much would Georgia’s be if moved to, say, the ACC?
Before you can say what chances a team has to make the playoffs, you need to look at who they play.
If the selection process truely looked at strength of schedule, those odds would be different.
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Unfortunately, Ug, if our SEC is still that good all ’round then we should be strongest in the Choose Four playing for a NC due to competition. Ain’t happening in the last two years and for the forseeable future due to upswing in competitiveness on natl level.
I see no reason why an SEC team can’t come back and be competitive at the natl level, but we have to bust our ass to make that happen again more so than in the past. Sos ain’t gonna get us there by itself, it’s just an indicator for deciding between two comparable teams and by the end of a season the team with the lesser sos could also end up stronger.
The luck factor rides high in my book. SEC teams that were not as good as we were player-wise have played for the NC because of luck. Same with the choosing part. If TCU or Bay had………(fill in the blank), tOSU would not have been in the NC after becoming the strongest and best team in the country after loosing to WV.
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Excellent points Ugly. I am not going to give a pass to Richt and his staff because of talent, even though I have stated several times that we don’t “underachieve” in the SEC relative to our talent. We usually finish at, or ahead, of our talent in the conference. It is the talent plus the depth issues cause by the unlevel playing field due to our disciplinary issues, and not playing the aggressive recruiting tactics. One big play maker being available may be the reason you don’t win that one game that makes you come up short in a key game. We were right at the door knocking in 2002, 2007, and 2012, it isn’t like we should be pitied, or ridiculed by anyone. That is damned good, it just didn’t happen.
Recruiting is one indicator, but not the only one. Look at how Boise has done with 3 stars, and how poorly Texas was several Top 3 national classes. So I don’t excuse our “shortfall”, for some fans, because of talent but it does undermine the “underachieving” meme which always states that we have the best players, facilities, etc.
We do seem to have reversed some things that may have held us down a little,(facilities, paying what is required to hold better coaches, earlier identification of talent and offers, more support staff to assist the coaches on the field, etc.) and I think we will see improved results this year, and the next two…at least. We have been so close, so many times, that the amount of vocal, sustained attacks on the program are just way out of proportion. So much to be proud of, yet some are miserable and whiney.
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I have always believed that we get a lot of good solid players that get drafted in rounds 3-7 but compared to the top of the SEC, we have come up short in recruiting “difference makers” and the offensive line in particular. It’s a strong counter to the perception that we always have top 5 recruiting classes which is not the case. The attrition through dismissals / transfers has only made matters worse.
Thankfully that is all changing.
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I am not sure that draft status is the best indicator of the quality and depth of a teams players. We already know that a large percentage of players drafted are busts. Being in the 1st round is basically the same level of quality. Or being first day. The NFL are really bad at drafting.
What is absolutely true is that the numbers didnt make sense and UGA was always boom and bust. 19 players in one class, 33 players the next.
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Except that draft status is highly reflective of productivity in college which is what we care about.
I loved Bacari Rambo but you can’t tell me that a) you wouldn’t have traded him for first rounders Courtney Upshaw or Mark Baron in college. Or b) it sure wouldnt have been nice to have a couple five star recruits providing him (& tray Matthews ) legitimate competition as opposed to Connor Norman? Especially when Bacari got suspended in 2012?
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Draft status doesnt really measure productivity in college either. It measures your draft status.
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I think you could make the case that recruiting issues = “lack of preparation” by the coaching staff as well. That knife cuts both ways… However, Pruitt damn near alone has ramped up UGA’s recruiting as of late.
It seems ridiculous that UCLA and Texas A&M recruit better than UGA does.
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Just to be clear, I think Richt is a good coach, and I don’t want to replace him. That being said, to me and for others, the worry hasn’t been that we haven’t won a NC lately. The worry is what game is going to be like last year’s Cocktail Party because there will probably be one, a game that we shouldn’t lose but do. Even if we do recruit better, others and myself will still be wondering which game will we simply blow and if that game will kill our team’s aspirations.
I hope the day comes when we can stop expecting an embarrassing loss, and I think there’s a good chance that day will come sometime soon. Richt seems like a new coach since he fired Martinez and an even better one since he hired Pruitt, but he’s still growing as a coach.
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As fans, we will never embrace the fact that we can lose any game we play. We still have to let the teams put on their unis and get out on the field to find out the winner. At sometime, nearly all teams stare at their pretty unis and go out on the field and galoot. It’s unpredictable and that’s why Vegas runs odds; to get you to bet without a thought that there are no guarantees.
Has anyone looked at those odds retrospectively to determine when the betting favorite tanks or can’t quite get the last pass off in a championship? How many teams don’t cover? ; that’s the question we should answer before indicting a team like our Dawgs.
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So until Pruitt arrived in Athens Richt was struggling with roster managament and recruitment? Next you will tell me that water is wet and bears crap in the woods!
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Uh…doesn’t “managament” mean having one partner you are faithful to?
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🙂
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The recruiting seems to have turned prior to CJP, but is a very important piece. Just like Bobo, Mcclendon, and now Brown. Recruiting is trending in the right direction.
I also remember that the recruiting rally cry was AVG Star when UGA wasnt finishing at the top of the recruiting rankings.That doesnt seem to be the case anymore.
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Over signing in the west and at S.Carolina is what led to a lot of what we have seen over the past several seasons. That coupled with Richt’s unwillingness to gamble on signing right at the limit have left a talent gap that is just now evening out. In years past we would put our eggs in one basket (Tunsil, Corderelle Patterson, Et al) and when we were left at the alter on signing day had no back up plan or filled the scholarship with a less talented player.
Times have changed on both ends of that with the SEC imposing the 25 limit and our staff getting more aggressive in offering early and filling classes with quality players
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Even being 4th in the conf, I still believe we would have been much better off if there hadn’t been so much attrition.
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I see Georgia’s recruiting deficit widening with the NCAA rejecting any accountability requirement for player stipends. With this loophole, the sky is already the limit this recruiting season for player compensation among the rest of the power five conferences. As a result, I don’t see the SEC keeping the transparency rule after this season and forcing its schools to live with this competitive disadvantage. I expect the sky to be the limit in the SEC next year.
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/04/sec_wants_transparency_with_co.html
Jere has already gone on record stating we are not joining that arms race.
We are close enough in recruiting to compete this year and next.
After that, all bets are off.
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Would love to know the attrition rate (admission & character issues) on those blue chippers .
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While I’m hardly a recruitnik and would have to lose several IQ points to ever pay for a service when you can get practically the same info for free, I do enjoy casually keeping up with recruiting. I don’t know what rankings the author was using but I prefer the 247 composite rankings, which use an average of the major services. The one thing I do love to do is crunch the roster numbers as soon as the kids get on campus. All my numbers are based on the composite rankings. The last four years we have signed 51 four and five star players. 11 of those are no longer on the team for a variety of reasons. That includes Gurley going pro and Toby Johnson and Jonathan Rumph exhausting their eligibility. We started camp with a full roster of 85 recruited players and are now down to 83 (D. Bing-Dukes transferred and K. Johnson-Daniels is no longer with the team by all reports) . The recruiting grades of those 83 are as follows: 8-5 stars, 37-4 stars, 35-3 stars, 2-2 stars, and one player ( Joeseph Ledbetter) who wasn’t evaluated as a football player out of high school. We know the reason for his scholarship. So that gives us 45 blue chip players on an 83 man roster. That’s 54 percent of this year’s roster.
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Good Comment TDA…
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Again, our issue is not losing to the teams that are recruiting at a higher level than we are, it’s losing to teams that are recruiting worse than we are.
How many times in the past 4 years has SC, tech, Florida, Missouri, Vandy, South Carolina, Clemson, Nebraska, Boise St, etc had a higher recruiting ranking than we have? The recruiting rankings alone might help explain the losses to Bama, Auburn and LSU the past four years, but they don’t really explain the others. We haven’t faced anyone else on the list above us, so we don’t know how we would have fared against them.
The article attempts to point out that our recruiting is not at a championship level and that may be true. It is, however, at a better level than our on field results.
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The snide little voice inside of me wants to know if that means you’re a typical Georgia fan who doesn’t care about championships. 😉
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If we had been able( didn’t try until to late) to have got Deshaun Watson to play with the talent we have-I think we would be in the running for NC.Its funny to me that all the great QB’s at Ohio State and Urban Meyers was at Gainesville constantly and we said Watson couldn’t run our offense.Oh Well!!
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