From Bill Connelly’s Richt epitaph:
After a miserable October, his team rallied. The Dawgs didn’t finish playing top-10-caliber ball, but they won four in a row. That means they’re a bowl win away from a fourth 10-win season in five years (and a 10th in 14). In an obvious down year. Most programs would pay millions for this type of disappointment.
After falling out of the F/+ top 40, the Bulldogs are back up to 34th. Yes, that’s a bad performance for a program with Georgia’s potential, even one that loses its offensive coordinator and starting quarterback in the offseason and one of the best players in the country (Nick Chubb) to injury midway.
But this poor performances comes on the heels of four consecutive F/+ top-15 finishes (13th in 2011, seventh in 2012, 14th in 2013, fourth in 2014).
5. Here are the other programs that pulled that off in that same span: Alabama.
That’s it. Florida State didn’t do it. Oregon didn’t. Ohio State didn’t. But Richt even pulled it off in 2013, with a brutally young defense and receivers exploding like Spinal Tap drummers.
This reminds you of how randomness plays a role in this sport. Rage against randomness or pretend there’s no such thing at your own peril. And while we can say Georgia is a sleeping giant, and that the program should expect better results, here’s a dirty little secret: almost no team gets to constantly win at the level we think it should achieve.
Everybody has setbacks and down years and disappointments and random losses and frustration against rivals. But Saban does it far less frequently than anybody else, and that makes people — especially SEC rivals — lose their damn minds.
Again, I’m not saying you can’t make a case that Richt didn’t deserve to lose his job. But let’s be real about what has to come next. As Bill succinctly puts it, “Dumping Richt was an impatient, emotional move. But it doesn’t matter if McGarity nails the replacement hire.”
The story of Georgia football under Richt is a series of ifs. We’re opening up the next chapter of if.
Get The Picture 
That about sums it up.
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Bill shouldn’t cloud the issue with facts like that. By golly, all we need is the right man!
I get it that the next guy could come in and get us over the hump. It’s certainly possible. But I thought it was just as possible to do it with Richt, and we got to enjoy 9-11 win seasons while we were waiting for it.
Of course, if we win a championship then the chatter will be about the next one, and the next one…you hear it at Alabama even. We’re all a little insane when it comes to this sport.
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Agree that does about sum it up. Hope the emotion makes a great hire.
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This is uber-typical of the program in its recent best years: great on paper.
I noted that the paragraph cited did not mention inexplicable losses to teams whose F/+ was worse. Also, no mention of a movement to award SEC East titles based on F/+, doggone it.
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I would speculate that it was not mentioned b/c most fans could care less about meaningless made up statistical measures.
It sucks losing to UF when they are down and that is an emotion.
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I know. Connelly obviously doesn’t know that good program never get upset by inferior opponents. That’s why Saban is undefeated this year. He even pretends randomness is a thing!
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Everybody is committed to the G except the G.
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“Dumping Richt was an impatient, emotional move.”
Huh? Dumping a coach after 8 years of no SEC Championships or BCS bowl appearances is an “impatient” move?
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The problem with finishing so high in the F/+ rankings in 2013 and 2014 is that the team went 17-8 those two seasons. That’s the definition of underacheiving. 2013 can be forgiven to some extent. 2014 saw the best or second best team in the SEC lose twice to .500 opponents, costing them a chance at an SEC title. That said, if he’d have a hired an adequate replacement for Bobo we wouldn’t be talking about a new coach.
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18-8* Forgot to include the bowl win.
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Belk Bowl Champs, bitches!
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I’ll preface this as saying that none of this is about the decision to can Richt. That’s done. However, I’ve been saying since the new broke yesterday that if the aspiration is to be like Bama, well sorry to break it to you, but we’re not going out Bama-Bama – especially if we’re going to keep spending half of what they spend. Even if we did make a commitment to catch up spending and quality control assistants and all the other stupid shit Bama spends its money on – we’re still not going to out-Saban Saban, even with Kirby Smart. If all of the movement on Richt sped up because we’re afraid Kirby Smart wouldn’t be available in the next offseason, shame on Greg McGarity. If the Georgia program is where many of y’all think it is in prestige and sleeping giant status, we can and should do better than hiring an unproven coordinator at this point. If he accomplished nothing else in his tenure, Richt is responsible for raising the profile of the program to that level. If the goal is to beat Bama when the time arises, doing it exactly the way they do it seems like a sure way to get our asses handed to us every time. Since we’re completely blowing this up – I’d much rather go a different route like a Baylor or an Oregon than waste our time trying to beat Bama at its own game. Just my $0.02.
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For myself, I don’t think being what Bama is under Saban is either possible at UGA nor do I want it to be. The football culture at Bama is sick in the same way it was at Penn State. I just want to be able to win the SEC title sometimes when the team’s good enough to do it.
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well said.
by way of comparison, boosters at Bama pay 1 million just for the opportunity to pay 50K per year for a skybox. We all know it but they are 50 miles past crazy in that fanbase.
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I don’t disagree with this at all. However, I think some of the more vocal folks that wanted Richt gone seem to think there’s nothing keeping us from being Bama and I think they’re going to be sorely mistaken if that’s the standard they hold.
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BR,
C’mon, man. Football crazies is one thing…raping kids in the shower is another.
Have a good day,
BD
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Child rape was the symptom. The disease was putting the football program ahead of the University and letting it do whatever it wanted. I don’t think anyone’s raping kids at Alabama, but I guarantee you some lesser offenses are being hushed up.
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I get the gist and don’t totally disagree with the point you are trying to make, though I wouldn’t characterize it as you did. (See my comment below.)
Take care,
BD
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I could have picked someone who didn’t cover up something so heinous, but it was the most visceral choice.
Take care.
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Come on, man! Sure, Bama has a million support staffers and spends billions on their program. Sure, Saban has lawyers examining NCAA rules looking for any exploitable loopholes. But they will never have hedges!
As soon as we get a man on the sideline who loves UGA enough, and isn’t an aspiring missionary, we will all see that the Georgia Way wins championships!
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Senator, it seems like Georgia’s recent performance can be summed up by combining Bill’s point about randomness and your point about what Richt frequently failed at, namely, the little things. Doing the little things well seems like the way to minimize the impact of randomness. It’s what makes mediocre talent a good team and a talented team great. I think most of us would agree that Georgia under Richt was often mediocre to good, occasionally dreadful and rarely great.
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” I think most of us would agree that Georgia under Richt was often mediocre to good, occasionally dreadful and rarely great.”
I wouldn’t agree with this at all. I would not define “mediocre” as more 10 win seasons than not in 15 years and only one losing season. I would say Georgia has been good to very good consistently under Richt. The only things missing for Richt are a National Championship, probably a few more SEC titles, and better record against Florida. I agree there have been seasons Georgia did not meet expectations and underachieved in some of those but I would not in any way say Georgia football has been mediocre under Richt. That is very hard to prove to me when he has the best winning percentage of any UGA coach with a substantial tenure.
I was not in the “Richt” must go camp yet because I don’t think he had the resources to compete with the Bama, Florida, LSU group. That was beginning to change it seemed after last year so I felt he deserved 3-5 more years to win the SEC and compete in the College Football Playoff. I just hope the next coach is given what is needed or the program will likely not get any further than it has under Richt in my opinion.
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+100
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I understand what you’re saying, and frankly I don’t think you’re disagreeing with my premise, just with the words I chose for my scale: great > good > mediocre > dreadful. We’re just arguing semantics here.
For the sake of clarity, I’ll reduce my proposition further: Georgia has been occasionally dreadful and rarely great under Mark Richt.
I don’t hold that against him. It’s just a fact. (And I didn’t want him fired, either.)
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Here’s what I think we should see the football program achieve over the course of a decade: 4 to 5 SEC East championships, 2 SEC titles, 1 or 2 playoff appearances. Does anyone think this is unreasonable?
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agree. It’s not lunacy to expect 1 SEC title each decade. And I’m well aware that we sucked in the 90’s. But sucking isn’t reason to lionize average.
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4-5 SEC East Titles didn’t happen when UF and UT were down. UT is on the up, and UF will be on the up (I can’t see them doing this next year, as they’ll lose a ton on D).
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I’m hoping this is the reason that Richt is gone and that the powers that be are looking for something like this. Not Bama 6 to 7 SEC titles every ten years and 2 or 3 national championships, but a consistent top 10 program. If they’ve gotten rid of Richt with the expectation we may compete for an SEC title (not necessarily win one) two or three times a decade, then why make a change at all? We’ve had that.
You’re right that UT may be on the way up but I’ve never understood why the Vols ever amount to much more than UK. Boosters lining recruits pockets with Benjamins? Complimentary cathouse off the locker room? UT’s natural advantages are far less than those of UGA and UF.
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I can’t, for the life of me, understand the argument of “natural advantages” for a college team. Does a coal vein in the area mean that the college football team will be good?
There is exactly one “natural advantage” that exists in college football. Money. That’s it. And it doesn’t have to come from a gold mine under the campus. Oregon became a national power when it gained the “natural advantage” of Phil Knight. Ditto for Oklahoma State with T. Boone Pickens.
Alabama’s “natural advantage” isn’t Saban. It’s the fact that it’s willing to pay Saban twice as much as every other coach in the SEC combined. In this context, Georgia doesn’t have the “natural advantages” many people believe. In fact, Georgia has much less “natural advantages” than most other SEC programs.
So, while I can understand that, once upon a time, football recruits were tied to their home state teams, that quaint notion, like amateurism, is a relic of the past. The modern inventions of planes, trains, and automobiles mean that recruits can travel dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of miles to play for schools with the only “natural advantage” that matters.
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You don’t acknowledge that it’s easier to recruit if you’re the primary program in a talent-rich state? People still tend to stay closer to home even with planes, trains and automobiles. Florida State, Miami and Florida didn’t suddenly become good programs in the ’80s and ’90s because they were throwing more money around than everyone else.
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It’s a stretch. Florida has a lot of recruits, so that might explain the success of Florida schools. But states like Ohio, Michigan, and Louisiana don’t have many recruits, so that same logic would suggest that their schools should suffer.
The common denominator of success in college football seems to be money.
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Ohio and Louisiana are both talent rich, and the two main schools have little competition for the pick of the litter. Michigan is a pretty decent state, especially by midwestern standards. Here’s a look from last year at which states produce the most talent in the country:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2015/4/15/8143431/states-most-players-recruits
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Ohio and Louisiana are talent rich compared to some other states. But the article you linked shows the schools per state to calculate the number of quality recruits per school in the state.
So, Texas, with more raw recruits than any state, ranks below New Jersey in recruits per school because New Jersey has one FBS school and Texas has 12. By the density measure, Louisiana ranks below Illinois, South Carolina, and Maryland in quality recruits per FBS school. And Ohio is on down the list below Arizona and Mississippi.
So, again, the logic of recruits staying in state can’t explain why schools like Oklahoma are perennially good and why teams like Virginia are perennially bad. But money explains it perfectly.
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“Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.”
Noonan, Peggy
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In Richt’s first decade, he had 3 SEC east titles, 2 SEC titles. In his second decade, he had 2 SEC East titles. He was fired 5 years into his second decade. He was on pace for what you seek.
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In the last 10 years (2006-2015), he has 2 SEC East titles, 0 SEC titles, and 0 National titles.
In 15 years, he never even played for the national title.
So….. no.
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This wasn’t as much about Saban as it was about Florida and McElwain and even Muschamp last year. We need to first beat Florida before we can even think about Bama. CMR’s seemingly casual approach to Jax, then “let’s look ahead” approach after these last two blowout losses, cost him big time. If we can’t start beating Florida, especially when they are down, then why do we even play football?
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This is the most accurate post today by UGA85. The last 2 games in Jax were an absolute embarrassment to our football program and the Georgia people! I supported and defended CMR to the fullest but it ended last season after the south Carolina game. A man making 4 million a year must produce and losing every meaningful game is not producing. Good luck to CMR and his family! GATA JYD!!!!!
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I think the odds of our next coach taking us backwards are definitely greater than making it to the next level or maybe even staying pat. No research to back it up….just common sense. 20 years and 3 head coaches between SEC titles. Lol
Top 5 program my ass. Potential for top 5 save for some boosters and a conservative approach to running a football program in the most competitive league in the country. Not a good mix, imo.
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Next year’s schedule is mildly tougher than this year’s. So the new HC will get the requisite 8+ wins. Looking back the past 3 years, CMR had the opportunity each year to bring home the division title. The failure to do so, the fiascos against bama and fu, and most of all the intent to retain Schotty, is what did him in.
Any promising future we would’ve had under CMR depended entirely upon Pruitt & co returning AND getting a capable OC.
But the way this change is being conducted is about as poor as it can get.
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Requisite 8 wins my ass. The point of making a change is to improve upon 39 wins over 4 years and possibly 40 wins. If we revert to Donnan results I will be royally pissed.
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You don’t expect a new system to go along with our new coaching staff? We are likely to get a HC who’s never been in the sec or a guy who’s never been a HC at all. There’s gonna be some level of on-the-job-training. Look at the carnage that we went through after Bobo left as an example of what can happen.
Where will we magically get a QB and effective OL? We’ll graduate 4 DLs, along with Floyd & Jenkins. New kickers too. Other than Chubb, Michel, Godwin, Carter (maybe), Thompson and the returning DBs, this may prove a substantial rebuilding job. We’re going to need a dozen relatively unknown backups to emerge as strong starters to be in the hunt for the division title.
Not sure what anyone else is thinking, but I wouldn’t bet my hard earned money on anything over 8 wins in 2016.
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This just goes to show how true the whole “lies, damn lies, statistics” saying is. We know about the high winning percentage, and the number of wins, and the number of 10 win seasons, but those numbers are far from the entire picture. They don’t reflect how we have failed to win SEC East championships that we really should have. They don’t reflect how we have been brutally beaten by the elite teams in the conference for years.
I remember how shocking the West Virginia game was at the time. NO one was supposed to be able to get that kind of lead. It was a real anomaly for the first 5 years of Mark Richt’s coaching career. It wouldn’t be a shock at all nowadays.
We’re used to getting turned inside out in big games. 2008 Alabama. 2008 Florida. 2009 Florida. 2010 Auburn. 2011 Boise State. 2011 LSU. 2013 Missouri. 2015 Alabama. 2015 Florida.
We’re used to having a game where we get turned inside out and no one expected it. 2007 Tennessee. 2009 Tennessee. 2012 South Carolina. 2014 Florida. 2015 Florida.
We’re used to gakking up upsets where we’re competitive, but really should have beaten the other team by a couple of scores. 2007 South Carolina. 2008 Georgia Tech. 2009 Kentucky. 2010 Colorado. 2010 Florida. 2010 Central Florida. 2011 South Carolina. 2011 Michigan State. 2013 Clemson. 2013 Nebraska. 2014 South Carolina. 2014 Georgia Tech. 2015 Tennessee.
I don’t think it was an impatient move. Impatient would have been firing Richt because he didn’t win a championship with Stafford and Moreno. But we went through that, and we then didn’t win a championship when we had statistically one of the best QBs in SEC history – Murray – along with Gurley, who was as good as a freshman than any Georgia running back I’ve seen not named Herschel. And we still didn’t fire Richt. And then we gave him 2013 because of the injuries, and 2014 because of the Gurley suspension, and still no championships. And 2015 looked like a real step back.
But he’s right about the replacement. With a good hire, the move may look like genius. With the wrong one, we’re going to get lit up by the same media that’s been taunting Georgia for underachieving and saying that Richt does less with more for years.
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I think this comment sums up the issue with some fans – the lack of clarity and reality re the team. Even after losing to UT and UF this year, and sucking it the last part of the season, this comment appears to be written in August.
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“This just goes to show how true the whole “lies, damn lies, statistics” saying is. We know about the high winning percentage, and the number of wins, and the number of 10 win seasons, but those numbers are far from the entire picture. They don’t reflect how we have failed to win SEC East championships that we really should have.”
You are reinforcing Bill’s point. Maybe you are consciously doing so. Statistics don’t tell the whole story of anything but used correctly they help illuminate the story. They should not be ignored or dismissed as either a bunch of lies or some fancy book-learnin’.
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What are you going to put your faith in, math, or hedges?
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+1
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It will be an interesting experiment moving forward that will test the theory touted by some here over the last months: can UGA perform equally well with a zombie corpse coach as they did with CMR? We shall see…
(If Herman or Smart don’t jump to Athens, a zombie corpse would be easy on the budget FWIW.)
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They could dig up John Heisman and go full Weekend at Bernies.
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Mal Moore’s performance pre-Saban was probably even more abysmal than your AD’s. And though he dallied a bit with Rich Rod, he was desperate enough to camp out in Saban’s yard until Terry made up her mind. However it went, he knew this was his last hire.
Is your AD that desperate?
And here’s another thing…when Mal signed Saban, he gave him the check book and the keys and checked out. That’s the only way Saban rolls.
I think that was partly because of how Saban wanted things, but it was also necessary because of the insane dysfunction in our athletic department.
Are y’all up for turning over the keys and the checkbook?
BD
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We have never been willing to do that before, BD…it will be interesting to see what happens now.
Seems there are Georgia folks who are desperate for championships. Are they that desperate?
Bad thing is we may not know for two or three or four football seasons.
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“Bad thing is we may not know for two or three or four football coaches.”
FIFY
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No, BD..This whole thing is out of whack. College football was never intended to be what it has become..but that doesn’t change reality.
Georgia isn’t getting into a spending war with ‘Bama. As I noted a few days ago..the situation in Alabama is unique to anywhere else…We will never match that fervor and commitment in Georgia…and we surely won’t do it on a grudging budget. The guy a few posts above that expects 4 or 5 SEC championships every ten years and a couple of NC playoff berths has not seen the face of reality. Georgia is in the SEC with Bama, the Barn, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee and a couple of other programs that the fan base expects the same….just not enough years to go around…’Bama is what they are and, to me, it’s crazy..but what the hell…it’s their cup of tea. Georgia ain’t going there no matter how hard they try.
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Based on nearly 125 years of precedent (not to mention our AD’s personal track record), Georgia is absolutely NOT going to “turn over the keys and the checkbook” to anyone, and that’s why Georgia will never approach Alabama’s level of success under Saban.
I think just about any SEC program could compete with Saban’s Alabama…if that program’s athletic department, university administration, state university oversight committee (i.e., Board of Regents), and state government were inclined in that direction the way Alabama’s are.
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OK, Blutarsky…you are right about McGarity lacking the slightest semblance of public relations understanding.
I have been…ah…suspicious? of your stand on this issue.
I was wrong. You are right.
From the news conference this morning.
Question: (short version) What did you and Mark talk about in your meeting yesterday.
Answer: (short version) That’s none of your business.
Forget that the content of their discussions is every bit as much our business as anyone’s. Forget that every word uttered in the discussions will become public record at some point in the near-immediate future via social media or the blogosphere.
I understand Dooley’s support of Damon Evans over McGarity as AD to succeed him.
There, but for a pair of red panties, go us all.
I noticed, as the principals exited stage left, a reporter talking to Vince.
Bet that was interesting.
Bluto, really, is this the beginning of the football apocalypse we have all feared?
God almighty….I find myself hoping….oh the horror.
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I have yet to see ANY name mentioned that has a PROVEN record of beating Nick Saban and winning NCs. That’s because they don’t exist! Anyone we hire, with head coaching experience or not, will be somewhat of a gamble because no one has beaten Saban consistently. And if you don’t beat Saban, you don’t win championships. He’s the reason for our first loss in 2008. He’s the reason we didn’t make the NC game in 2012. He started the “fire Richt” train rolling this year. People just keep saying “We’ve just got to find the right guy and throw money at him to come.” “The right guy”, meaning a guaranteed Saban-beater, isn’t out there.
I keep hearing about Herman, from the Meyer tree. Has he developed NFL caliber QBs? If not, Eason’s gone. Are we gonna run a stinkin’ spread offense now? We don’t have a QB or linemen with the right body types for that either and the top players are either already committed elsewhere or we’re too late in the game on. So we’re gonna be mediocre for 2 more years until he gets “his guys” in here? Houston doesn’t play anybody and they face planted against UConn. Also, Georgia fans like their power running game and passing off play action with some spread concepts thrown in to utilize exceptional athletes. I don’t think a Mississippi St or Houston offense is going to play well here, but that’s just my opinion.
I could go on and on about this with other candidates, but the fact is we are now faced with the reality of finding a coach that can beat Bama and UF with a meddling administration (which Saban doesn’t have to deal with) and on the heels of a PR disaster. Oh, and the meddling AD gets to make the new hire.
I say we get a guy who knows Ga high school coaches because he has recruited here for years and those coaches trust him. Get a guy who hasn’t learned bad habits from being around aloof coaches who allowed the bad habits to form, but has been around meticulous coaches who taught him to win and do things the right way from a management standpoint. Get a guy who is young enough to give at least 10 years to the program if he pans out. Get a guy who is not going to absolutely blow up the current recruiting class. Get a guy who you do not think will ever embarrass the university. Get a guy who, since any coach will likely be an expert on one side of the ball, will turn over control of the other side of the ball to an innovative coordinator. You know, make an INFORMED choice for our next head coach, not just hire someone because he won a championship somewhere in the past. Richt did that. Do I trust McGarity to follow such a decision making process? Uh….. He may surprise me, and I hope he does, but I’m not counting on it.
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Sounds like you want Smart.
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Maybe. Probably. And I may end up wrong, but at least I’m trying to form my own opinion based on what I think we need. I’m afraid McGarity is just listening to a few guys with big checkbooks who are too emotional to make a good decision.
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Paul F-ing Johnson…he’s a Genius and fits all your criteria (well, except the embarrassing part).
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LOL. And the recruiting the state of Georgia WELL part. And the young enough to stay 10 years part. And……..
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This isn’t “The Most Georgia Thing Ever”, or “Georgia’s Gonna’ Georgia”.
It’s the most Auburn thing Georgia has ever done. Georgia’s just Auburned.
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This is what happens when the most important thing is just to get rid of the current guy, and not considering “is there anyone better right now to replace the current guy?”
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“This reminds you of how randomness plays a role in this sport. Rage against randomness or pretend there’s no such thing at your own peril. And while we can say Georgia is a sleeping giant, and that the program should expect better results, here’s a dirty little secret: almost no team gets to constantly win at the level we think it should achieve.”
This is exactly the point I made to Turd yesterday. My objection to firing Richt had nothing to do with him personally or any sort of emotional feelings. It was about probabilities and optimization. The question: “Will firing CMR and having ADGM hire his replacement increase the probability of UGA winning rings? Is that the move to achieve optimal results?” but that question wasn’t asked in my opinion. Everybody, especially ADGM, instead made an emotional move “to just DO something” without considering whether or not the proposed “something” would actually make the program better.
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This is why I don’t like Smart as the hire. That will make us Alabama, Jr. Alabama, light. TAB Alabama.
We need to find a different route to success. Someone who is innovating and doing things differently than the Saban way.
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Swing for the fences! If you’re going to fire the best coach in our history at least try to bring in the best coach possible. Every coach in the country except about 5 should want this job. We have a better local recruiting territory than Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, LSU , Tennessee or even Miami. We have more committed support than USC. We have more tradition (wins) than Florida, Florida State, Auburn, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Clemson Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, TCU, Baylor, Stanford Iowa, Michigan State, Iowa etc. It’s a nice area. I think maybe the last coach who left the program and then also left the area was Joel Hunt in 1938. We can match the pay of almost any other school if we care to. There’s every possible reason for coming here. There should be no reason why they can’t get a proven coach.
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Richt Is One Of The Top Ten HCs In the Country. No problem getting a job.
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