A little more on the McIllece Sports data

I don’t know if you spent any time looking at the data from McIllece Sports I linked to yesterday, but if not, there’s something I wanted to follow up with.  The site calculates a power ranking for each program, based on the following:

Power, Offense, and Defense Ratings

These are the three primary ratings that measure the quality (or predicted quality) of a team, in terms of points scored and points allowed. They are all schedule-adjusted, meaning that the quality of opposition faced is factored into the calculations.

  • Offense = The points scored value of a team’s offense (high is good)
  • Defense = The points allowed value of a team’s defense (low is good)
  • Power = Offense – Defense. Conceptually, this is the expected margin of victory (or defeat, if negative) versus an average FBS opponent on a neutral field. An average FBS team has a power rating of zero.

Therefore, for a simple estimate of how many points Team1 would score against Team2, add the Offense rating of Team1 to the Defense rating of Team2. This would be equal to the expected Points Scored (PS) for Team1. Analogously, to estimate how many points Team2 would score in that same game against Team1, add Team2’s Offense to Team1’s Defense.

Based on that, here’s what the numbers for Georgia over the last ten seasons look like.

YEAR POWER OFFENSE DEFENSE
2006 12.8 17 4.2
2007 19.9 22.2 2.3
2008 14.5 24.3 9.8
2009 11.6 20.8 9.3
2010 14 20.7 6.7
2011 15.9 22.1 6.2
2012 24.8 27.8 3.1
2013 18.1 29.2 11.1
2014 29.7 32.5 2.7
2015 12.3 16.1 3.8

(If you want a little context for those numbers, consider that since 2010, besides Georgia, there have been a total of five seasons when SEC East teams had power ratings in the twenties:  Florida in 2012, Missouri in 2013, South Carolina in 2012-3 and Tennessee in 2015.)

Look at what Georgia’s numbers track.  You can see the fall of Willie Martinez from 2007-9 and the immediate improvement Grantham brought.  Then you can see what a disaster Grantham was in 2013 and how good Pruitt was as his replacement.

There’s also the Bobo to Schottenheimer transition, the less said about which, the better.  Also, Bobo detractors need to check out that 2013 offensive power number that came despite all the key injuries.

As for Richt, he deserves credit for taking a mediocre 2011 squad to the SECCG and deserves an equal amount of blame for failing to do the same with his best team over the decade in 2014.

All in all, it paints a pretty good numbers picture of what I subjectively feel about the last ten years of Richt’s work.  Given that, it’s probably worth noting that not much improvement is projected for Smart’s first season, with a 16.8 offensive value and a 4.1 defensive value netting a 12.7 power rating.  Kirby would seem to have his work cut out for him.  At least he’s got a friendly schedule.

117 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

117 responses to “A little more on the McIllece Sports data

  1. ugadawgguy

    There are so many reasons not to expect any improvement in wins and losses this year…this looks like yet another way of stating what is obvious to anyone with a shred of objectivity.

    Those who expect our rookie head coach to come in and find immediate success beyond what Richt accomplished are in for a severe disappointment.

    • Greg

      We make a change from a coach that was winning 10 a year to a different one and we should not expect improvement (W/L)???……Well, I sure as hell do – and McGarity needs to be held accountable.

      • Herschel Krustofsky

        In the last 10 seasons, Richt won 10 regular season games 3 times.

        • Herschel Krustofsky

          And in his entire 15 year tenure, he did it 5 times.

          • stoopnagle

            FUN WITH STATISTICS.

              • Herschel Krustofsky

                Do you understand what the regular season is? Evidently you don’t.

                • Greg

                  All games don’t count in a season??? “Evidently” they do…the records I linked says so…that is why they keep count. I counted 9 in his 15 seasons (10 or more)…and would have been 10 if he coached his last. How many coaches not named Saban has done that in ther last 15 seasons?? …..and just for the record, Saban’s last 15 seasons…he did it 10 times. Not many coaches around like that, I certainly hope that McGarity made the right decision…time will tell.

                  http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/coaching/alltime_coach_year_by_year.php?coachid=2055

                  • Herschel Krustofsky

                    5 in 15, 3 in the last 10

                    I’m pointing it out so that when Kirby goes 9-3, the inevitable crying and screaming from the Richt lovers will be framed correctly as the ridiculous crap that it is.

                    Also, zero championships (conference or national) in the last 10 years. And only 2 appearances in the conf championship game.

                    • Greg

                      Richt won 2 SECC in his first 5 years, I will be ecstatic if his Smart can do the same…..and if you want to go his full career, Richt won the SECC more often than the school did before he got there (every 7.5 years vs 11.5)…..& as I posted below, he had the highest win percent of any coach at UGA with 4 or more seasons. If Smart can do better than that…I’m happy, I really don’t GAS who the coach is…just improve on that.

          • Greg

            145 wins in 15 years =’s 9.7 wins per year. Also, before Richt – Georgia won the SEC 6 times (joined in ’32). That is an average of 1 time every 11.5 years. Richt won it 2X in his first 5 years….during his tenure it was an average of every 7.5 years. The math is done for you – Richt every 7.5 years and all those before him, they won the SEC every 11.5. He also has a higher win percent than any coach before him with at least 4 or more years on the job. Again…..do I expect better?? Hell yes I do – and McGarity needs to be held accountable.

            I think Richt was a victim of his own success – also being in the same conference as Alabama. History says we never have been Bama….and probably never will be. Maybe Georgia football is not as good as everyone thinks it should be, historically we are not….just saying McGarity stuck his neck out on this & he should be held accountable….

            • Otto

              Was UGA a top 4 talent producing stating during the tenure of the prior coaches?

                • Greg

                  And also playing in the same conference as Alabama, check their classes out the past 5 – 7 years. Georgia has always been a top producing state & probably always will be (can’t get them all)….along with our neighboring state of Florida. It was this way before long before Richt. Count the schools within 2-3 hours of our borders – 7? There are all kind of factors, support from the administration may be one of the biggest……again, we have never been a Bama…..& I believe that is more of a function of the support they get versus Georgia….they are all in over there. Richt was not holding us back, history says a lot…compare & contrast (coaches before him). Good news is, it looks as though the support for football is changing….I just hope McGarity knew what he was doing. Again, I expect better and McGarity needs to be held responsible.

                  • GATA

                    dude, get a grip. spending way to much time on fodder. hey, you don’t work down the hall from me….

                    • Greg

                      LOL!…”to (too) much time on fodder”?? What does that say about you if you are reading &
                      responding? …. : > ) Are you asking me if I work down the hall from you?…maybe, where do you work?

            • PharmDawg

              Well using your logic, Florida should have just accepted being terrible because they never won the SEC (legitimately) until 1991with Spurrier though they joined the SEC in 1933 (a 58 year drought). Why did they ever expect more and hire an alumni, Spurrier? They should have just kept Galen Hall and accepted winning on probation (yes I know Darnell was there right after Galen was canned for just a bit). Everyone should just accept their historical average and never try to become more successful.

              Florida obviously got tired of being losers and reeled off three national championships (1996, 2006 and 2008) and eight Southeastern Conference championships (1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2008). Guess Florida wasn’t worried about “not being Alabama”.

              I’ll have some of what Florida did, which is being better in the future to improve the historical record. Who knows if Kirby can do that yet, but Richt didn’t win us that many championships. He was a good man and a good football coach, but I’d like to at least be competing every year for a chance and not worry about which expected win will be a loss an knock us out of that chance. I also want opposing teams know they’ve played somebody when they come to Athens even if they scrape by with a win. I want fear to be the feeling of opposing teams playing Georgia instead of teams wanting to measure their level success against Georgia. Play hard, play mentally and physically tough, have good men in the trenches (which helps the team overcome when skill players get hurt). Kirby is the coach, now. And just like every coach, there will accountability in time. I’m not drinking Kool Aid, but I am glad to be on a new track with hope.
              Go Dawgs!

              • PharmDawg

                One more thing, I want to be able to enjoy celebrating a win rather than just to feel relieved by the win while celebrating.

              • Greg

                All good points….but there ain’t too many Spurrier’s around (or Meyer). Even Spurrier won at Duke, tough to do. He is one of the best to ever coach the game imo. I wish Smart nothing but success, I just want to win and not go backwards from where Richt has taken us…I do not GAS who the coach is. I guess we will find out soon enough.

                • Herschel Krustofsky

                  You keep saying you don’t GAS who the coach is but you also keep highlighting the good parts of Richt’s resume (mainly the first 5 years) while crying and stomping your feet. I don’t believe that you don’t GAS for a second.

                  The Richt lovers are just chomping at the bit if things don’t go according to the way they think they should go. NEWSFLASH…most fans are glad we got rid of Richt REGARDLESS of how things may or may not go over the next 3-4 years. The Richt regime was stuck in the mud, spinning it’s wheels. It was time to move on. Most people have. You should try it.

                  • Greg

                    Your hatred of Richt is clouding your judgment, you sound paranoid. What I am pointing out (record wise/accomplishments), are all facts. I was a Dawg fan long before I even knew who Mark Richt was. Don’t take it so personal and take heed to some of your own advice…”move on”. I don’t love or hate him Richt, but I do appreciate what he did for Georgia. I hope Smart can do more for our football program. I wish Richt luck at his new school – unless they play the Dawgs, then they can GFT like the rest.

            • Herschel Krustofsky

              I think Richt was a victim of his own laziness.

            • doiknowu

              Your heart might be in the right place, but your facts aren’t. UGA won 6 SEC championships under Dooley alone. UGA had 10 SEC championships prior to Richt’s arrival: 1942, ’46, ’48, ’59, ’66, ’68, ’76, ’80, ’81, & ’82. Dooley’s 6 in 25 years comes to 1 every 4.17 years.

      • PTC DAWG

        You fail at logic…especially in year one.

    • PTC DAWG

      Programs fire coaches because the program is in a decline. We were in one for sure. I count one win over a team in the last 2 years or so with any type of a pulse. CKS will start making a big difference in 17 and 18.,..or not…he will not have 10 years to win a championship like we have endured the last 10.

  2. Timphd

    Can we agree to never mention Shotty again? Wow, the power numbers for his offense were half of Bobo’s last year. Let’s just gloss over that year and pretend it never happened. With Pruitt’s defensive numbers, a year was wasted due to lack of offensive power in 2015. I’d just as soon forget that whole year.

  3. DaddyRichATL

    [Facepalm]

  4. Just think what that defensive rating in 2014 had been without the performances against USCe, UF, and tech (and what the offensive rating would have been without the disaster that was UF and the combination of poor play calling and execution against tech). That will be the season of truly unmet expectations …

    If Aaron Murray had the Pruitt defenses in 2012-3 (especially ’13) …

  5. The other Doug

    Good stuff.

    I think we will see solid improvement in the offensive number this year. QB play will be better and the RBs will be healthy.

    • hailtogeorgia

      I agree, it’s hard to look at the new offensive staff and think that there won’t be any improvement from last year to this year, which is essentially what their projection says (that it will remain static)…but, who knows.

  6. Uglydawg

    Georgia eeked out ten with coach Albatross as the OC last year…It would seem to me that Smart would be able to match or nearly match that production this year, given the schedule. While Georgia won a couple that almost went the other way, they lost a couple that were winnable. With a healthy Chubb, Sony, with even the slightest improvement in the passing game (absolutely doable if the O line can block enough to sneak out a back or tight end on a route) I really think offensive production will be very good.
    However…Sometimes your offense is most useful by just holding the ball for long, long drives. This is something Georgia has missed with all the injuries and poor O line production. That isn’t measured in “Power Ratings”..except it shows up in the defensive numbers.
    The question is going to be the defense. They will need the offense to not turn the ball over and to sustain long, resting drives.

  7. CB

    On Bobo’s 2013 season – Most of the injuries occurred during a narrow road victory against an eventual 5 win Tennessee program. What game are you hanging your hat on after that? The losses to Mizzou and Vandy? 23 points against a 4 win Florida team that lost to Georgia Southern? Perhaps the 45 points against App State tickles your fancy, or the 59 points against a 2 win Kentucky program.Then there was the double OT win against an average Georgia Tech, and the bowl loss to Nebraska. Take your pick sir.

    I’m not sure I could trust any list that claims 2014 was the “best team” in the past ten seasons. I know you said strength of schedule was factored in, but who did we beat that year? Other than Clemson who had yet to figure out the best player on their team, DeShaun Watson (whom Bobo whiffed on in favor of Jacob Park), should probably be on the field. I’ll take both the 2012 and the 2007 teams head to head against 2014. I don’t mean to sound like an old school baseball scout, but the eye test has to have some relevance.

    • Perhaps you should go back and take a closer look at who Murray had to work with against Missouri and Vanderbilt in 2013. Against Florida, he got back a couple of gimpy weapons… maybe you didn’t notice what kind of shape Gurley was in for that game, but I did.

      Speaking of Gurley, he was injured in the opener and in the LSU game. Mitchell went out for the season in the opener.

      As for the GT and bowl games, Murray was out.

      • CB

        Murray might have missed GT and the bowl, but your main man Hutson Mason stepped in. You know, the guy who lead Georgia’s best offense ever.

        Gurley wasn’t injured in the opener, he was hurt there’s a difference. He did get injured in the LSU game, but in both instances he still gave huge contributions, and we had Marshall to fall back on.

        • Gurley wasn’t injured in the opener, he was hurt there’s a difference.

          What difference? Either way, he missed time.

          As far as falling back on Marshall goes, that didn’t last much past the LSU game, did it?

          • CB

            Dude, Gurley had 154 and 2 TD’s against Clemson. There’s a big difference. Injured means you can’t play, he played hurt and dominated the game (I didn’t clarify the difference earlier, my apologies).

            As for your point on Marshall you’re exactly right, he got hurt the next game against Tennessee which brings me back to my original question. Which game after that do you fondly recall Bobo’s greatness? It’s a big fish story.

            • Georgia averaged over 7 YPP against Auburn and Kentucky and almost managed that against UF.

              Look, guy, I get it. You’re not impressed. More power to you.

              • CB

                I can see where you’re coming from with Auburn, but we had Gurley and Murray for the entirety of that game.

                Kentucky was absolutely putrid that year. Their only wins were against Miami OH and Alabama State (but not without our old friend Crowell hit them with 84 yards and a TD).

                I feel like Bobo made his career by putting 50 or 60+ on Kentucky and padding his stats.

                • I can see where you’re coming from with Auburn, but we had Gurley and Murray for the entirety of that game.

                  But not Marshall, Scott-Wesley or Mitchell. And Gurley still wasn’t close to 100%.

                  Again, you’ve made your point. I don’t find it convincing, but you’ve made your point.

                  • CB

                    Sure, they were definitely missing some talent, and Gurley may not have been 100% but he had a combined 290 all purpose yards and 3 TD’s in those games because he’s better than everyone even when he’s hurt. It’s a distinct advantage.

                  • Will (The Other One)

                    I notice he’s skipping that when the offense was fully healthy, it dropped 40+ on a Scar team that won 11 games…

                    • CB

                      That’s because I responding to the Bobo praise for the job he did after the injuries. The healthy offense against Scar wouldn’t fall under that category.

                    • Except Georgia’s best WR was out for that game.

                    • CB

                      As an OC in the SEC I would imagine that it would hurt more to lose Nick Chubb than Malcolm Mitchell.

                      Ill take 10 wins and a bowl victory over 8 wins and a bowl loss every year. Especially if one of those losses is to Vandy.

    • Bobo didn’t choose Park over Watson. Clemson offered Watson as a high school freshman, and Richt and Bobo didn’t offer until much later because that was the time when we didn’t hand out offers like candy. Watson was already committed. Also, people in Gainesville say Watson always wanted to play in Chad Morris’s offense even though he grew up as a Georgia fan.

      • CB

        Where do you suppose this tweet came from. I think it’s from his junior year.

      • CB

        The fact that he’s a Heisman caliber qb that grew up a Georgia fan should piss off every single Georgia fan. I doubt he even knew who Chad Morris was before he was recruited by him, so how could he have always wanted to play in his offense? In Watson’s sophomore year he threw for 300 yds and 5 td’s in the first half of the region championship game. What do you suppose Bobo was waiting for?

        • I don’t know, and it frustrated the hell out of me as well. All I know is what I’ve heard from people in Gainesville who followed his recruitment. They say he never really considered Georgia once Dabo and Morris offered him.

    • Sanford222view

      Your eye test loses credibility when you defend Schotty vs. Bobo as OC. Yes Schotty had a difficult QB situation to deal with but your eye test should tell you he wasn’t very capable of coaching around it and an unimaginative OC in general. Bobo basically was reduced to Murray, albeit a pretty good option at QB to put the offense on, after all the injuries at the skill positions in 2013.

      I still don’t understand all the hate Bobo gets from the Georgia fan base. He coached some of the best offenses in school history. Basing hate and giving him little credit based off of his first few years as OC, missing out on one particular QB prospect, or isolated play calls(which I realize you didn’t mention but others often do when bashing Bobo) seems pretty weak in my book.

      • CB

        First of all, every school’s offense is scoring at record pace because the rules have changed to favor offenses. Second of all my, eye test has nothing to do with play calling. I don’t know a thing about play calling on an SEC level and unless you’ve coached or played qb in a P5 conference then you probably don’t either. My eye test has to do with how dominant a team looks, and I really believe that by the end of the season the 07 team could have scored on anyone in the country whereas the 2014 team struggled to put up points against Georgia Tech and Florida. Tech was good that year, and Florida was average.

        • First of all, every school’s offense is scoring at record pace because the rules have changed to favor offenses.

          If so, isn’t that another condemnation of Georgia’s 2015 offense?

          • CB

            I really wish I could visit an alternate universe and see how Bobo would have done with Brice Ramsey as qb and no Nick Chubb. Say what you want about 2013 Georgia has never had a year with less to work with on offense than 2015. Horrific qb talent (heck, I though Mason was bad), marginal depth at RB, no depth at receiver, and an under performing o line.

            • You think Mason was bad, and yet Georgia was seventh nationally in YPP and eighth in scoring in 2014.

              • CB

                I don’t think he’s bad compared to the 2015 qb’s, but yeah he was pretty bad. Couldn’t throw 40 yards downfield. 2014 was a statistical outlier. A combination of great running backs and weak competition led to big numbers. If you’re good at your job 1 out of 8 years it’s not a good sign. I for one am thankful for that season bc it was enough to trick Colorado State. I looked at Schott the same way I looked at Mason after Murray left. I didn’t know if he was better, but I was ready to try something else bc I was 100% sure we weren’t going to win anything with the predecessor.

                I don’t think Bobo was terrible btw, I’ve just always felt we could do better, and I’ve never understood why we didn’t. He only seemed to be successful when he was going up against inferior talent, and sometimes he still didn’t come through. Go back and look at games where Georgia faced a good defense. The offense rarely did anything.

                • hailtogeorgia

                  That’s crazy to think that teams with good defenses would do a better job of limiting an offense’s production than teams without good defenses would…

                  • CB

                    Doing a good job of limiting an offenses production isn’t the same as shutting them down regularly. The latter is what happened to Bobo.

      • CB

        It’s not that we missed on Watson, it’s that Bobo gave him the impression that we didn’t think he was good, and by the time we realized how wrong we were it was too late

      • Uglydawg

        Sanford222view…The Georgia fan base doesn’ hate Bobo. Most of us love the guy. CB is one squeeky wheel on a wagon that pulled out of the farm a couple of years ago. Maybe he went to Texas when Bobo took them down in the Cotton Bowl or something.

        • CB

          Yeah, I’m the only person who thought Bobo was sub par. Well, me and the entire college football market. Go check his salary when he was at Georgia, he was one of the lowest paid coordinators in the conference bc other schools weren’t trying to poach him. If there is nothing else to say about Bobo I’ll at least a admit we got him for a bargain. Like the big bags of cereal at kroger they’re cheap, unsatisfying and they last forever.

  8. CB

    I understand the Schott criticism. Last year the offense was really bad, but why am I the only one who acknowledges the qb situation that he inherited as well as Chubb’s injury in his first and only year with the program?

    • In one breath, you’re pretending Bobo didn’t really have serious injury problems to work around for much of 2013 and in the next, injuries are an excuse for Schottenheimer’s performance. Impressive.

      • CB

        Incorrect, I’m just pointing out how you are constantly doing the exact inverse. I don’t understand how you totally discount the discrepancy in the time samples here. You cut Schott no slack after just one season and sing Bobo’s praises after 8 years of mostly mediocre offense. There’s a pretty strong argument that the most impressive thing Georgia has done on offense in the past ten seasons was last year’s SCar game, but in your mind it’s like it didn’t happen. According to your numbers 2015 isn’t even the worst offensive season Georgia has had recently. How do you defend that?

        You trumpet the 2014 offense and try to rationalize losses to Vandy and Mizzou in 2013, like they were somehow a triumph for Bobo and simultaneously an indictment on Richt. Yes we had injuries, and yes Vandy and Mizzou had pretty good teams that year respectively, but we should never lose to teams like that. How can you constantly ignore how often the offense under performed from 07-11? If I blame Richt for one thing in his career it’s giving over the play calling duties to Bobo, that and the refusal to get rid of sub par defensive coordinators twice. I’m just looking for some consistency. Question did you want Bobo fired after 2010? I didn’t read the blog back then so I’m not privy, if not then I’m afraid you’re being inconsistent.

        • Go back and read my post about Schottenheimer after the SC game. Unfortunately, one game does not a season make. And even with that, it was hardly the most impressive offensive moment in a decade.

          Nor am I saying Bobo had a perfect career from the beginning. Anyone who’s spent time reading my posts here would know that. But if you look at the data, you see a clear progression in his work. Obviously if you see eight years of mediocrity, we aren’t going to see eye to eye.

          Finally, I don’t call for anyone to get fired. Again, if you read my blog regularly, you’d know that.

          I sense a common theme here, and it’s not my inconsistency.

          • CB

            Bobo’s first 4 years – 22.2, 24.3, 20.8, 20.7 – By definition that is a progression, it’s just not an upward one.

            I’m not saying that 2015 SC was the most impressive offensive moment in a decade, but there is a strong argument in there if your qb sets in NCAA completion percentage record. It’s at least in the running. What would be higher off the top of your head?

            I never publicly call for anyone to be fired either (anymore), but sometimes I still want them fired. You don’t have to be a psychologist to analyze your posts and see that you were clearly happy with the Richt and Schott firings. So I still pose the question – Did you want Bobo gone after 2010? Obviously it’s your blog and you don’t have to answer anything, but I don’t see the harm at this point.

            • My feelings on Bobo were that he had it in him to be a top notch OC, but his play calling was wildly inconsistent, mainly because he didn’t trust himself enough. And I love how you stop after Bobo’s first four years to make your point.

              Not sure from where you got my feelings about Richt’s firing. All I ever said was that I lost my emotional attachment to him after the bowl game loss to MSU. I never felt that strongly about Bobo either way, so, no, I wasn’t burning with the fire of 1000 suns to see him canned after 2010.

              I guess I don’t understand what you mean by “There’s a pretty strong argument that the most impressive thing Georgia has done on offense in the past ten seasons was last year’s SCar game…”. And you are still glossing over the bigger point that Georgia’s offense collapsed in 2015. Nick Chubb’s injury doesn’t cover all of that, surely.

              • CB

                I used Bobo’s first four, you gave Schott one so I’m +3 on you there. I guess I just don’t understand what made you think Bobo would be good after mustering 0 TD’s against SC and UCF among other abysmal performances.

                I guess I get your feelings on Richt from the shade that you’ve thrown at him pretty much every day since he left. Any stat you can find to discredit him you post it.

                I’m not sure how to restate my comment about the SC game. Perhaps that I thought it was a bang up job as far as single game performances go.

                I feel like losing arguably the best running back if not best player in college football (certainly better than heisman winner Derrick Henry) is pretty significant. I don’t think the offensive collapse is hard to explain. After Chubb went down everyone loaded the box and made us throw it with Virginia’s back up qb. Simple as that.

                • I used Bobo’s first four, you gave Schott one so I’m +3 on you there.

                  I didn’t give Schottenheimer anything. That’s all I have to judge him on.

                  • CB

                    Do you not see the significance of that?

                    • An experienced offensive coordinator comes on board and in his first year on the job, drives the offense to its lowest level of performance in a decade. Yeah, I see the significance of that.

                    • CB

                      Again you’re totally ignoring the QB situation and Chubb injury. They are incredibly incredibly significant factors IMO. Ymmv I guess, I just don’t see how that could even be remotely possible. It’s like if a boxer fights blind folded and loses and you just chalk it up to poor technique and a lack of preparation, but whatever.

                    • I’m not ignoring anything. I don’t blame the entire collapse on Schottenheimer. But he certainly bears major responsibility for it.

                    • CB

                      Sure, I’m not saying he has no fault, it’s not like I’m sad that he’s gone, but I like to think of myself as a fair person who takes everything into consideration.

                      Maybe you’re not ignoring it the Chubb/qb situation, but I’ve never seen you mention it which is pretty much the same thing.

                      If you think about it the 2015 qb situation goes back to your man Bobo because he’s the one who left the cupboard bare. Ramsey was bad when Bobo was there (first pass in the bowl game after Mason got hurt = int), and he’s still bad now (first pass in the Bama game = int for 6) so there’s the consistency we’ve been trying to find in this discussion. At least he’s a good punter.

                      Final point. If you look at Chaney’s resume and compare it to Schott’s coming in where’s the advantage other than a couple of high school kids calling Chaney a genius? Heck, I can make a HS kid think I’m a genius in any number of subjects. HS kids are largely stupid, I know I was.

                    • Chubb got hurt in 2015 > almost every skill position player missing time in 2013 is what you appear to be arguing. I don’t agree.

                      Part of the OC’s job is to coach QBs. What does it say that none of UGA’s QBs improved over the course of the 2015 season?

                      And while we’re at it, if the 2015 SC game was the apogee of Georgia’s offense under Richt, why was the rest of the season so putrid offensively? Yes, Chubb was gone, but it’s not like Sony Michel was chopped liver.

                      As for your point about Chaney, don’t you think that’s implicit in the 2016 projections? Kinda the point I was trying to make.

                    • CB

                      No, Chubb got hurt + no qb talent+no receiver depth+really bad o line coach > a great deal of skill players missing time, but not all at the same time.

                      I think the lack of o line plus the Chubb injury really hurt qb progression, and I’m also open to the idea that none our qb’s have any real ability. It’s still a fair criticism of Schott, but I do think there is room to cut him a little slack, but again I’m not holding a vigil in wake of his departure.

                      If you want to blame the offense on Richt then that’s fine, but he’s responsible for the whole team, and the team won all, but 3 games. Yes it was ugly, yes I understand the criticism and why he was let go, but any stat in a vacuum can say whatever you want.

                    • hailtogeorgia

                      Schottenheimer also brought in a new guy to the program instead of using any of the guys already there. To the Senator’s point, isn’t it the QB coach’s job to be able to teach QBs? We saw no development last season.

                      Genuine question – do you think Bobo would have been able to get more out of the offense in 2015 than Schotty did? I think he would have and he would’ve done it with Brice Ramsey.

                    • CB

                      Brice Ramsey? The kid who threw immediate interceptions in both the 2014 Belk Bowl and the 2015 Bama game? That has to be a joke. What would make you say that?

                • hailtogeorgia

                  Alright, so you give Schotty a pass for the offense being less than half as productive than it was the year before because of the QB situation he found himself in and an injury to ‘arguably the best running back if not the best player in college football’. You tout what was done in the South Carolina game as one of the most impressive things Georgia has done offensively in ten seasons.

                  Then, in the same breath, you ding Bobo for the fact that his offensive rating went down in his third and fourth seasons, yet fail to acknowledge that in 2009 he had to replace two first round picks at QB/RB and in 2010 he started a redshirt freshman QB and was without arguably the best WR in the country for four games. You say the 2014 offense underachieved and only padded stats against the crappier teams like Kentucky (and that Bobo made a career out of that sort of thing), but don’t mention that Gurley (‘arguably the best running back if not the best player in college football’) was out for six games. You don’t mention at all that South Carolina was 3-9 last year and won one game in the SEC. If that’s not Kentucky level sucking, I don’t know what is.

                  You want to see what Bobo would have done with last year’s team? Look at what he did offensively with 2009, where the QB was equally terrible, the RB depth was worse, the WR depth was worse, and the offensive line was just as bad. Let’s turn that around and ask how Schotty would have done in 2009? or 2013? Come on – if you want to defend Schotty and lampoon Bobo, fine, but at least be consistent with your arguments.

                  • CB

                    Any replacements in 2009 were kids that Bobo brought in so that argument is out the window.

                    Who’s fault is it that we didn’t have a viable upperclassmen to start in 2010? Wasn’t Bobo an awesome recruiter?

                    Gurley was out in 2014, but we had Chubb which isn’t much of a drop off is it?

                    I didn’t mention SC’s record bc everyone already knows it, if it makes you feel any better I’ll credit Bobo with the 5 rushing TD’s Washaun Ealey scored against Kentucky in 2010. Side note – Ealey set a school record, Lambert set a national record.

                    In 2009 Cox threw for 600 more yards and twice the number of TD’s as Lambert did last season. The receivers were WAY better in 09 with AJ Green, Orson Charles, Kris Durham, Marlon Brown and Tavarres King, and Rantavious Wooten (5 of those guys made it to the NFL and AJ is a Pro Bowler). RB depth wasn’t terrible in 09 with King, Thomas and Ealey. None of those guys were anything special, but again any roster short comings are on Bobo if he didn’t recruit well enough.

                    How’s that for consistency? I’m not really defending Schott, I just don’t think the sample size is large enough to get an accurate depiction, as for Bobo I don’t think he sucks, but if you name any year outside of 2014 I can give 3-5 games where the offense didn’t show. Try me.

                    • hailtogeorgia

                      The argument is out the window? This is a joke. You ding the guy for his offense regressing slightly in 09, I point out that he lost a #1 overall QB and #12 overall RB (not to mention MoMass being a 2nd rounder), and that argument doesn’t matter because he should’ve have been able to just plug guys in to replace that production with ease since he was an established coach. Seriously, this is a joke, right?

                      You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth here. By your logic, if he gets the blame for not having an upperclassman QB ready to go in 2010, shouldn’t he also get credit for having Chubb ready to go in 2014? You can’t genuinely sit here and act like losing a guy like Todd Gurley is no big deal simply because ‘we had Chubb’. That’s just revisionist history.

                      Re: 2009: The receivers were not ‘WAY better’; it was basically AJ and a bunch of unknowns. Of the guys you named, AJ notwithstanding, Orson Charles was a true freshman, Kris Durham didn’t even play in 2009 due to a bum shoulder, Marlon Brown was a true freshman who had exactly two receptions (both in the UT game), Tavarres King was a RS freshman, and Rantavious Wooten was a true freshman. Sure, the young guys had decent stats (although certainly not Marlon), but they were all happy surprises. If you compare the two years, they were actually pretty similar as far as receiving stats (aside from the fact that Bobo got a lot more production out of Joe Cox and his TEs than Schottenheimer could out of Lambert and his TEs). Basically one exceptionally talented guy getting the majority of the targets (AJ/Malcolm), one veteran contributor (Michael Moore/Reggie Davis), and a couple younger guys trying to fill in the gaps (King&Wooten/Godwin&McKenzie). The TEs were pretty equal with Orson Charles/Aron White compared with Jeb Blazevich/Jay Rome. Why Schottenheimer didn’t use the TEs more to his advantage is beyond me.

                      In all honesty, you’re basically just taking history and making it fit the narrative you’ve built, when it’s not at all accurate to what actually occurred at the time (or the impact of events at the time). Again, acting like the Gurley loss was no big deal is absurd. Knocking Bobo for his lack of recruiting at QB and then not crediting him for the same recruiting at RB. Saying that his WR corps in 2009 was way better or that the RB depth in 2009 was better than 2015. These are laughably bad premises to build an argument on, and yet you’re still trying…and that’s not even getting into the subject of the offensive performance in 2009 being vastly superior to the dumpster fire of last year.

                    • CB

                      Using words like laughable and phrases like “is this a joke?” only work if you know what you’re talking about. Otherwise they just make you seem dumb because you’re doubling down on being wrong, and when you keep repeating them it becomes a little pathetic. Grab a thesaurus.

                      I had actually forgotten about Michael Moore so I’ll give you credit there. That adds to the 09 receiver corps being decidedly better. If nothing else Malcolm Mitchell doesn’t even come close to AJ Green’s talent level. There is no comparison. That gap alone puts 09 in a separate class compared with 2015. So we’re done with that argument. Deal with it and move on.

                      There is not a ton of drop off from Gurley to Chubb, look at the production. Chubb actually averages a full yard per carry more than Gurley. B Mac brought both of those guys in so that argument is also dead, Bobo didn’t recruit them.

                      I’m sure you think you could have called the offense better than Schott, maybe they should have hired you to “draw up more TE plays ensuring us the SEC East title” says every moron Georgia fan. Give me a break, what qualifies you to evaluate play calling. Have you coached at an SEC level or even a high caliber HS level?

                      Now that all of that is settled listen closely. I’m not trying to argue that Schott is better than Bobo, or that he was even good. All I’m saying is he was pretty much set up to fail with the qb situation he inherited from Bobo. He didn’t recruit Ramsey, and Lambert was the best he could do on such short notice. Bobo recruited Cox so any shortcomings from that perspective fall squarely on his shoulders because it was his call. I don’t feel like that is hard to comprehend.

                      My next point is that Bobo, while not terrible, was highly overrated. Like I said, give me any season outside of 2014, and I’ll give at least 2 if not 3-5 games where the offense failed.

              • Otto

                I don’t know if Bobo didn’t trust himself enough or was over confident that his call would work. He won many a boxscore but didn’t produce at critical times. UT ’07 and UF ’14 he seemed determined to get the ground game win it wasn’t there and then turning to the passing game once the hole was dug. Going conservative with a lead, giving up 3 and outs while the defense was wearing down, and the the D alone gets blamed when it becomes a game again. Yet he would have an amazing game like the Clowney South Carolina game where you think he has it all figured out. I thought UGA could do better at OC but who knows it may have been the overall coaching philosophy of the staff (Grantham seemed to do the same).

                Mason did a far better job than he gets credit for, Bama has won titles with comparable to possibly lesser QB talent. I wish Bobo would have put more on him earlier in the WLOCP but Bobo after Stafford was slow to put the load on a 1st year starter.

          • CB

            P.S. It’s also clear you want McG fired. You can say something without saying it you know? I can’t say I disagree on that one.

            • If the same people are pulling the strings, what good would it do to fire McGarity?

              All I do is point to his shortcomings.

              • CB

                Those are the same people who brought Smart in, but as I recall we are in agreement that regardless of whether or not Smart works out the entire process was a joke.

        • hailtogeorgia

          According to your numbers 2015 isn’t even the worst offensive season Georgia has had recently.

          Umm, yes it is. 16.1 is lower than any other number in the offense column…

      • Russ

        Don’t stop him. This is high quality dawg-grading.

        • Uglydawg

          Last year Georgia played the weakest SEC E in memory…plus the usual cadre of cupcakes…and look at Schotty’s numbers. He sucked as an OC. CB, you’re going to have a very long and difficult job here if you think you are going to convince many of us that Schotty was a superior OC to Bobo. And keep in mind that what the defense does effects the offensive numbers and what the offense does effects the defensive numbers. Bobo’s offenses would often score so quickly the defenese couldn’t catch it’s breath…Schotty hurt the defense too, because his offense kept the defense on the field too much too, but by a different means. A good stat would be to research what percent of the drives ended in a punt or failed 4th down conversion…that would tell us a lot. I’m betting Schotty’s offenses punted or ran out of downs more often than did Bobo’s.

  9. YeahBaby

    He won 10 or more in 9 of 15 seasons. He would have likely won last year’s bowl game making it 10 of 15.

  10. It’s all about depth, baby!!! (That’s what she said).

  11. W Cobb Dawg

    This reflects the vital importance of the OC and DC. The Bobo & Pruitt combo and in their prime = coordinators on steroids. If only we could’ve kept them together for 5+ years.

    Then again, CMR never followed through on his promises to learn clock management and fix STs, He couldn’t or wouldn’t handle basic roster management. Even if CMB and CJP could’ve somehow be kept in the fold, experience tells me CMR would’ve found new and creative ways to f#*k things up.

  12. PTC DAWG

    Really tired of talking about what CMR did or did not do for that point. He is gone..for better or worse. Either get on the Kirby train or get the F OFF….Not sure what beating a rotting horse does for UGA.

    • Because if they’re accurate about Richt’s tenure, it makes their 2016 projection more credible.

      • PTC DAWG

        I would assume the same numbers had UF winning the East last year? New Coaches, new attitudes….we shall see where it leads.

      • Otto

        It does but I am also tired of expectations being put on this team. I fully expect us as fans to watch a game thinking what is this? but at some point in the season to also see a team that could win it all. But… it is the conversation at the moment. I don’t think this team will know the toughness Smart is asking for until they face actual game competition.

      • Will (The Other One)

        I think there’s still a ton of guessing or something I don’t fully understand about their prediction methodology though (I’m very curious why they project Auburn to get a good bit better defensively, for one. Also curious how they project Tech going 7-5 with regression on defense and only minor offensive improvements.)

        • On Auburn:
          The historical offense and defense ratings are based on actual points scored and allowed, both of which were inflated by the 4OT Arkansas game last year. For future seasons, 4OT games are not expected, so the projections strip them out. A “truer” picture of the 2015 ratings for Auburn might be approximately 16.0/4.0 (there are some mathematical reasons they aren’t calculated this way, although an adjustment to handling OT points is being considered for next year). Viewed that way, the Auburn D isn’t expected to change too much. Astute of you to pick up on that.

          On Georgia Tech:
          This is all about the perspective given by point-based power ratings versus past won-lost records. A team with close to a 9 point power rating isn’t supposed to go 3-9, especially in the Coastal. That’s unusual and unlikely to be repeated. GT was competitive in just about every game they played and were much better than their record indicated. For 2016, a slight dip is projected in power, but if that power rating is accurate, there is little chance they would slip to such a poor record again. They should at win enough to make a bowl game.

  13. paul

    Here’s the thing, Greg is not an anomaly. LOTS of our fans believe we fired a guy (Richt) who routinely won 10 games a season and as such we have every reason to expect the new guy should do better. Now. Those who pay a bit more attention realize Kirby deserves some time to mature as a head coach and fill the roster with his own recruits. I’m not so sure the average fan is willing to be that patient. I think it’s possible the honeymoon ends rather quickly for Smart. Especially if we lose more than three games this year.

    • Dylan Dreyer's Booty

      “I’m not so sure the average fan is willing to be that patient.”

      This is more complicated than you make it sound ,imo. The first thing to realize is that if we have zero wins, I am still going to be a Dawg fan, and I don’t even come from a family tradition of Dawgdom (father was a Gator, I have brother whose a humble bumble) and for me it’s about the school. I don’t think I am alone.

      But I am also not saying that if Kirby has zero wins I am going to be happy. My personal opinion is that although they won 10 last year, they also under performed with the talent they had on the roster. I think most of you agree with that. There were entire games that we did not seem to know what we were doing. Jax was horrible on so many levels; the Mizzou and Ga Southern and Tech, too were games we managed to win but only God knows how. Never mind Alabama – they were just better (although we still didn’t seem to know what we were doing).

      So, I don’t care about a specific number of wins. I care that we play the best people, that we hustle constantly and play competitively for all 60 minutes, and that we are organized enough not to get in our own way. Even a first year coach should be able to do that, and so far, Kirby looks like he has a clue. If he can do that, I think he will get 10 wins in the regular season with the talent we have. But that isn’t an absolute prediction which if he doesn’t achieve it the honeymoon will be over. I think of it as more of a reasonable aspiration.

      1) Play the best players
      2) Hustle and be competitive for 60 minutes
      3) Be organized enough to eliminate goofy mistakes
      If he can three areas off the wins will come.

      • paul

        I will be happy if we hustle play competitively for 60 minutes week in and week out, thus eliminating the annual face plant game. As long as we play confidently and look like we know what we’re doing I’ll be happy. I liked Pruitt and I’m sorry he’s gone. His greatest achievement in my mind was eliminating all the flailing arms, guys desperately looking to the sidelines and jumping around as the ball was snapped. It just made me wonder what the heck we were doing all week in practice.

      • Uglydawg

        Nicely said, Booty.

    • Otto

      While I agree we should expect more, judging Smart of 1 year with vastly another coaches players in unreasonable. I didn’t come to the point where I wanted Richt gone after 1 season, Smart wasn’t my 1st choice but he will get the same chance.

  14. D.N. Nation

    Man. A pro-Schotty troll? Takes many to make a world, I guess.

  15. stoopnagle

    All I know is I’m going to be pissed if Kirby runs it up the gut from the 2 with 14 seconds to play and no time outs with the game on the line vs Auburn. Because to hell with Auburn.

  16. 69Dawg

    I know it’s the off season but we are making glue out of the dead horse now. We can enjoy arguing about the old coaches and Dawggrading every team that CMR coached after his first 5 years. It really does not matter. What matters is what Kirby has to work with when we kick off in the Dome. Do we run Alabama’s defense without Alabama’s depth or does he actually know how to coach what the 2016 Dawgs bring to the table. Does Chaney design a scheme that works or does he have to coach the offense to run the pure vanilla O of Bama. I don’t know and you don’t know. All we know is that the Kirby can recruit. Georgia fans have always been accused of living in the past but at least it used to be a positive experience now it’s just attack or defend a coach that is enjoying himself in South Beach while we argue. Life’s too short.

    • I’ve already explained what the point of the post is.

      It’s July, man. If you don’t want to read it, don’t.

      • 69Dawg

        I know what the point was and in no way was I criticizing you sorry you took it that way. I was merely pointing out that we end up in this debate every time anything you write about involves anything about any stats these days. Not your fault it just seems no one wants to let the past be in the past.