Here’s the backdrop.
Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff is expected to present a potential media rights deal to member institutions within the next 48 hours, according to multiple reports. News of the expected presentation comes four days after Colorado abruptly defected from the conference to head back to its former home in the Big 12 amid the uncertainty surrounding the league and its media rights future.
The Pac-12 authorized Kliavkoff to begin negotiations for a new television contract in June 2022 after USC and UCLA announced plans to join the Big Ten in July 2024. Despite more than a year passing, the league has yet to present firm numbers for a television contract to its remaining member schools.
Kliavkoff’s been farting around more than a year and it’s only now, with Colorado on the move and the Pac-12 standing on increasingly shaky ground, that he’s got a deal to present? Smells like nerves to me.
And here’s the benchmark he has to meet to stave off disaster:
With Colorado’s planned departure, the Pac-12 is down to nine still-committed members. If Kliavkoff can’t deliver a deal that gets close to the $31 million per year the Big 12’s contract is expected to pay its members there could be more defections.
“Each of us will make our own independent analysis,” Arizona President Robert C. Robbins said in June. “I’m hopeful that the deal is going to be good enough to keep us together.”
Not exactly a vote of confidence in the conference’s leadership.
Speaking of Arizona…
There is an Arizona board of regents meeting scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, but a potential Pac-12 exit for the Wildcats may not be as simple as an up or down vote. Arizona and Arizona State are both governed by the board, which may want to ensure that the Sun Devils don’t get left behind in a weakened conference. It is unclear whether this all will be discussed in Tuesday’s meeting, as the only item listed on the docket, as of Monday night, was an “executive session,” which is behind closed doors.
Obviously, if Kliavkoff can’t deliver the goods, it’s easy to see why Arizona would bolt for the Big 12. What’s less easy to see is why the Big 12 is so hot and heavy for Arizona.
Adding the Wildcats would not significantly enhance the Big 12’s football product. Arizona is certainly not a program where it is impossible to have modest success, but they’ve infamously never been to a Rose Bowl despite being in the league since 1978, and have only finished in the top 25 once since the dream 1998 season where they went 12–1 and would have played for a national title had they not lost to UCLA. Their No. 4 ranking at that season’s end was one of two top-10 finishes ever.
Arizona also does not enhance the Big 12’s football television audience, as it ranks near or at the very bottom of average viewership among Pac-12 schools according to data reviewed by SI. But adding a school that is not a football behemoth is its own strategic play by the Big 12.
That “strategic play” amounts to (1) adding a school 70 miles from the Mexican border, which feeds into Yormark’s obsession with building an international market for the Big 12’s product and (2) Arizona’s basketball prowess, which would indeed enhance the Big 12’s standing in that sport. I don’t seen how either of those significantly enhances the conference’s bottom line, which will remain far below that of the SEC’s and Big Ten’s, but, then again, I’m no genius conference commissioner.
To some extent, it’s likely they’re counting on this holding true: “And in a 12-team Playoff world, access to the postseason will not be an issue.” What happens if that doesn’t hold?