Best measuring stick evah

Introducing the Massey-Peabody Football rankings:

Each week, Cade Massey, from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, and Rufus Peabody, a Las Vegas sports analyst, rank all 128 college-football teams based off a mathematical model that takes only on-field performance into account. In other words, the model is purely objective and is stripped of outcome bias such as wins and losses, which are often the product of mere chance.  [Emphasis added.]

The model looks at four statistics to evaluate offenses and defenses—rushing, passing, scoring and how effectively the ball is advanced relative to down and distance. The data is adjusted for home field and game situation, and weighted by predictive ability. (For more information on their methodology, visit

Like the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings, the Massey-Peabody model factors in strength of schedule. Unlike the committee, the Massey-Peabody rankings also include preseason expectation, which has proven to have value when predicting team performance, even late in the season.

You know what happens when you strip wins and losses out of the equation?  Funny thing – Georgia comes out as the second-best team in the country.

Georgia ranks as the nation’s second-best team, according to Massey-Peabody, not Florida State. The model expects the Bulldogs (8-2) to beat the CFB average team by 25.5 points on a neutral field, and the Seminoles by slightly more than a field goal. To show just how well Georgia is playing, consider that last week they defeated the No. 9 Auburn, 34-7.

These guys could grow on me.



Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

13 responses to “Best measuring stick evah

  1. Hogbody Spradlin

    Goes to show how some things just can’t be reduced to numbers.


  2. Macallanlover

    So with Sagarin having us at 3rd, and Massey-Peabody having us 2nd, do we demand an Executive Order from Bill Hancock to reinstate the BCS computer influence of 1/3 of the say….four votes? Not that we are the complete team we will become over the next 2-3 years, but there are a few teams that don’t want to look across the field and see the G on the other sideline, and that includes the Tide. Not saying we are better, but we are the most dangerous team between them an making the playoffs so you can bet they are pulling for Mizzou to win these next to.


    • Cojones

      Dang Mac, whenever I hold back on the homer accolades, you just finish’em up. Your view of how Bama looks at us coincides. Does your mother have a fuzzy thumb-scrubbed photo of a smallish guy from Virginia you may have seen/found growing up? Was your father in Tenn in ’39? Either of those possibilities could have caused these telepathic collusive posts we sometimes have – except, of course, the political thingy and the Woodstock memory (or lack thereof) stuff.

      Not only do I think we are respected on the field by Saban, but think that he appreciates the old school competitiveness both teams exhibit when playing against. Think his mom gave up two kids for adoption in the early forties? or that his father was a traveling salesman? in the Southeast?


      • Macallanlover

        I traveled the Southeast in sales for a while, including TN and Virginia so I could be yo daddy…except for the early forties timetable. 🙂 (And I taught my children about the Constitution, economics, and corrupt politics. Double 🙂 🙂


  3. Scorpio Jones, III

    Yo…Condi…. put that in yer pipe. na na na na na na

    Bammer claims a national championship from these guys, right?


  4. Mayor

    Quick–somebody send this data to the committee. Plus, Dear Lord PLEASE let Georgia win the East and get to play Missy State in the SECCG!! Then we’ll all get to see the truth about the “committee.”


  5. Bulldawg165

    What’s their ranking of that Florida team that stomped a mud hole in us on national tv?


  6. Cojones

    Don’t mind saying that these measurements appeal to logic for an accurate quick fix. I like this very much. Nice get, Senator.

    It will be interesting to see how the predictive point differences apply to the UCLA/USC game today. And this could be quickly adapted for objective prediction of an 8-team slate. Of course, there’s the pesky subjective preseason thingy to live with and argue.

    No using this for cheating in the Mumme Poll !


  7. Russ

    Obviously a well reasoned, mature opinion. Which is why we’ll never hear of it again.


  8. W Cobb Dawg

    The 2nd best team in cfb doesn’t usually have 2 losses after 10 games (i.e. 80% winning percentage). But I’ll take it and ignore the cognitive disconnect.


  9. Tronan

    Georgia can play like the second best team in the country on any given weekend. It also can’t get out of its own way on others. Throw out the shit show in Jacksonville, and I’d buy into the Massey-Peabody ranking. The fact it includes the UF game and still ranks us second means there are some bugs to be worked out. (Did you see what I did there?)


  10. Keese

    …..”These guys could grow on me”

    Where does this fit into the value of the regular season for you?