Bill Connelly updates his look at how coaches did in actual wins versus expected wins…
Last offseason, I tinkered with a measure called second-order wins. It is basically my version of the Pythagorean Wins concept, where you look at a certain component (usually points or runs scored and allowed) and determine what a team’s record probably should be as opposed to what it actually is. If you’re losing a ton of close games but winning a bunch of blowouts, that’s probably a sign that, on average, you would be faring better than you are.
My second-order wins concept looks at the single-game win expectancy figures you see in the 2015 Schedule & Results chart below. The idea behind win expectancy is simple: It takes the key stats from a given game (success rates, explosiveness, field position factors, and other factors that end up going into the S&P+ ratings), mashes them together, and says, “With these stats, you probably could have expected to win this game X percent of the time.” Add those figures up over the course of a season, and you get a glimpse of what a given team probably could have expected its record to be.
… and finds that Mark Richt finished right about in the middle, along with the likes of Steve Spurrier. Surprised, or not?
Get The Picture 
I think if you compared Richt versus Spurrier when he was at UF there would be a big separation.
Also, the tag on Richt for most is that he “never could win the big one”. If you look at Richts entire GA career, we obviously never played for a National Championship.
Hell, we only played in one game (2012 SECC) where winning meant we would have played in a National Championship game. If you look at it that way, we were never in many “big ones” – at least nationally .
PS- even the Sugar Bowls we played in we always had the crappiest opponent that went to a BCS game that season
LikeLike
I’m assuming being near the top is a good thing on this list. Since Gus and Mack Brown are ranked near the top, I’d say this offseason statistical exercise proves the old saying “a tortured number will say anything”.
LikeLike
I wonder if the Gus Bus lost those two games against UGA and Bama in 13 what his level would be…
LikeLike
If Gus had lost those 2 games in 2013, his seat would be blazing hot right now.
LikeLike
It might be, but it wouldn’t be a seat anywhere near Auburn. He would have been fired.
LikeLike
He might have been fired after 2015, but no way he gets fired before then.
LikeLike
All other things being equal, I’d say after ’14. You could really see the fall off the last half of the ’14 season.
LikeLike
Amen to that. The Senator will throw shade at Richt with any sort of ammunition he can find. Even a list that ranks Rick Neuheisel and Jim More ahead of Nick Saban.
LikeLike
In my mind, CMR won big games in 2002 and 2005…we had some great wins in other years, but nothing that lead to a championship of any meaningful kind.
Maybe the SEC is just harder to win now. With the “all in” of our Western partners. UGA is not the only East team with struggles in that game lately…i.e. basically since Saban arrived and brought up the Tide..it raises all boats you know.
LikeLike
New Lexicon entry:
Big game – any game lost by Georgia
LikeLike
Any game lost by Richt. FIFY
LikeLike
I didn’t read the linked article…but in my mind a BIG game is a championship game. I suppose all the games won that lead up to a championship game are big games in their own way, one reason I referenced some great wins in other years.
LikeLike
Rivalry games are big games. Consequential conference games are big games. High-profile OOC games are big games. Championship games are big games. I considered Clemson ’13 as a “big” game. We lost. I considered both USCe ’13 and LSU ’13 as “big” games. We won.
Using your criteria, we only played in 5 big games in the last 15 years – 5 SEC championship games. Before that, we didn’t play in a big game since 1983 (13-7 loss to Auburn at home in a virtual SEC championship game).
LikeLike
It is OK to disagree in my book.
LikeLike
RIcht’s record in big conference games – versus teams with a conference record above .500 – was abysmal over his last several years. I believe that record was 5 wins and 17 losses in the last 22 such games at some point last season. That’s not a small sample size and there is no defending it.
LikeLike
Did I defend it or is someone trying to troll in a comments section? My comment had zero to do with CMR and only was a question to PTC about what defined a “big game.”
LikeLike
I saw it last night and tried reading through it and I couldnt really figure out what the point was.
Coaches that win the games where their team has produced the stats that would indicate they should win?
Coaches at the top are lucky to win games they should not have won.
Coaches at the bottom or losing games they should have won based on their stats?
LikeLike
Your synopsis is probably as good as any.
LikeLike
Over the course of time, all coaches will move toward the center.
LikeLike
Regression to the mean
LikeLike
The law of large numbers and the bell curve effect, indeed.
LikeLike
Charlie Weiss “likes” this comment.
LikeLike
IF anything, Saban seems to be moving farther away…dude has won a bunch of big games lately. IE games that involve winning a Championship. Bout time for his ass to retire.
LikeLike