I was going to write something about Georgia’s sizeable drop in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ over the course of the 2016 season, but an alert reader pointed out this post at Football Study Hall that’s worth a quick gander — in particular, check out which two schools are the biggest disappointment and most pleasant surprise, respectively.
There’s a glass half empty/half full approach you can take to this. Either it’s a cause for despair that Georgia may have whiffed on the correct former Donnan player to hire, or a reason for hope that Smart can have success as he tracks the learning curve as head coach. Stay tuned for which turns out to be right.
Get The Picture 
Oy vey.
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Mike Bobo seems to be progressing nicely.
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I always assumed that Bobo would replace Richt one day. Oh well.
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I hope Smart works out but if he doesn’t maybe Bobo will be a good option. Wonder if McG will pay a search firm to make one phone call again…
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Either Smart works out, or he leaves the cupboard full for Bobo to come home and take over.
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Want to bet that during Bobo’s first season as UGA HC Dantzler and Butler will talk on and on about how Bobo inherited a team lacking in talent and his first two seasons will be throwaway seasons until he changes the culture and gets his players in the two deep?
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No, because that wouldn’t be true.
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Not true this year. I think that was the point.
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This horse is sufficiently dead. No one is changing anyone else’s mind.
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No doubt, it must be exhausting to continually attempt to rationalize that we didn’t have enough talent to dominate Nicholls or beat Vandy and Tech at home. It would be tough to convince myself of that, much less anyone else.
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Ok. You win
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I don’t think anybody wins in this scenario.
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Good to see others view Butthead and Brown Noser as I do.
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Can’t stand to listen to either of them especially Brown Noser. I can’t blame Butthead since he’s actually on the staff as a grad assistant. Brown Noser might as well be the AD’s ventriloquist dummy.
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I blame Bobo.
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Of the teams on the “exceeding expectations” list only Tulane (4-8) has a coach in his first year (Willie Fritz).
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First year at that school. Fritz was a HC before Tulane.
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As had several of the others. My point was that coaches don’t exactly have a great track record in their first year at new schools irrespective of HC experience. There are some exceptions but most first year head coaches are building towards the future. You really can’t judge a coach until you get to year 4 or so. This was one of the reasons I was a “stay the course guy”. I knew 2016 was flushed when CMR was let go. I thought and still think that an east title was in reach with the old regime in place for 2016, assuming CJP stayed too. That and a sugar bowl wouldn’t satisfy some but it beats a liberty bowl berth. Doesn’t mean I’ll be right about 2015 decisions in 2017. I hope that next year and beyond that we exceed where we were under CMR. The recruiting part is going well and that’s most of it as far as I’m concerned.
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10-4. We’ll see going forward. Recruiting on OL is light years ahead of the previous run rate. Unfortunately, that’s the one position that really takes a few years to see returns.
2016 was frustrating, but I’m still optimistic that there will be brighter days ahead.
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I am too. I just hate making long term decisions/risks while, among other things, Nick’s rehabbing a destroyed knee. At the end of the day it ain’t about me, it’s about those kids on the team putting in the work.
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I, too, am optimistic that things will get better than they were before Kirby’s arrival…
…but I don’t think that will happen until at least 2019.
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What happened to that sweet, sweet 2018 national championship I read about in December 2015 on this board?
Now you are saying that we won’t exceed 10 win seasons with Taxslayer type post season type results in 2018 or 2017? Those results would not be the results Smart was hired to get.
If Smart is the guy to take the program to a level higher than it was we will get to that higher level before 2019. I really was skeptical, and still am, about that 2018 national championship talk, but if he is capable of improving on 50-17, 29-11 conference regular season over a five year average we should know that sooner rather than later.
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Without looking at the projectoons, I guessed Vandy would be on the pleasant surprise list. I’m happy for CMB though, and hope he has continued success.
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I remember thinking that it didnt look good when what I thought was a pretty bad Colorado team blew doors on CSU to open the season, but both teams have been pretty good this season.
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I hate to throw ice cold water on the Bobo love, but check out CSU’s record this year. They went 7-5, lost to their three biggest rivals (CU, Wyoming, and Air Force), and beat nobody with a pulse.
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that’s awesome. That is some utilitarian commenting right there.
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The point isn’t that CSU was a great team in 2016. It’s that it showed major improvement over the course of the year.
BTW, Sagarin currently has CSU one spot ahead of Georgia, with a win over #57 San Diego State.
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I probably should add that part of me wants Bobo to do just bad enough to end up back in Athens as Chaney’s replacement. The other part of me wants him to take a solid CSU team to Florida in 2018 and embarrass the Gators. I’m torn y’all.
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I noticed that as well. His season looks a lot like our season. I think the jury is still out on CMB as a head coach, just like it is with CKS.
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Other than Georgia being sixth on this list and CSU being 90th, you make a helluva good point there.
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Couldn’t we ALL just get along and say that CMR’s season and ours look a lot alike? That seems a more apt comparison. Of course I’m pretty sure CMR didn’t inherit a back to back 10 win team.
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and only one of them beat the bugs.
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For the record:
Saying “he inherited a 10 win team” is the same thing as saying “Saban went 7-6 and lost to ULM his first year at Alabama”. They are true statements that serve the agenda at a glance but they don’t hold up once analyzed.
Not all 10 win teams are created equal. UGA pillowfought its way to 10 games and didn’t finish in the top 25, that is a feat typically reserved for mid majors. Those 10 wins could have very easily been 6 or 7 with a few serious embarrassments.
Just like Saban inherited an Alabama program in disarray, recently weakened by NCAA sanctions.
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They “serve an agenda?” Factual statements serve an agenda? I would say facts are stubborn things and those who call facts agendas live in a fantasy world that their agenda created.
Forgive me but I don’t live in the world of “false flags” and child prostitution rings run out of pizzerias. The people who put that bullshit out have an agenda. It’s to convince otherwise reasonable people that there are no facts, just perspectives and agendas. I say reality matters.
Now you can argue we weren’t a very good 10 win team and I’d agree. But we were every bit as good as the team that won 7 this year. After all, the past two seasons we suffered with a qb without talent. Not so in 2016.
I said we’d step backwards in 2016 when CMR was fired and CKS hired. That’s not an agenda and it doesn’t mean that CKS won’t be better, perhaps much better, that CMR. However, I was right about 2016 because I really on facts and reality.
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So you’re saying that emphasizing certain facts while ignoring the rest of the picture is never used to make a specific point? Man, mainstream politics, media, and the judicial system just got dealt a huge blow.
It’s called spin, I’m pretty sure it’s a thing.
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What was “spun”? I simply stated two indisputable facts: 1) CMR’s teams won 10 games two years in a row prior to CKS arriving and winning 7. 2) both CKS and CMR played Tech in their first year at a new job and one of them won and one of them didn’t.
That’s not spin. Assertions of fact do not mean that there is no such thing as spin anymore than my statement that the earth is round means that there aren’t a multitude of websites dedicated to debunking the “round earth myth.”
It is true that the earth is round and it is also true that there are idiots who believe that it isn’t. That is not the same thing as saying the earth may or may not be round as if the condition of the earth were a matter of opinion.
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CSU played a loaded schedule too……very impressive season Bobo. Talk to the people out there and find out what they say when comparing Bobo and McElwain.
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Keep in mind that a CSU grad is far more likely to be a Broncos fan, but they aren’t all that excited about Bobo. Part of that is CU’s season casting a shadow.
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I was being sarcastic. Bobo is a good coach, good offensive mind and does well with good talent but imo not an elite HC that would succeed at the highest levels. I think he poorly managed the OL recruiting, (is that the OCs job under Richt, it should be?) and picked 3 QBs in a row in Mason, Ramsey and Park that aren’t good enough to play for an SEC school expecting to win championships. But what do I know? I know teir fans don’t think he is good as Mc.
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I gotta disagree about Mason, Atticus. If CMR doesn’t have a brain fart at the end of the Tech game that team would have won 11 games. Also, remember the bad playcalling/bad refereeing at the end of the Georgia/South Carolina game that year that cost the Dawgs a win? That team easily could have been an SEC East winner. I thought Mason was a QB who had arm strength limitations, a la Fran Tarkenton, but who played the position well.
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Ok we can disagree. Mason was a good college QB and yes played it well for his limitations. But he wasn’t an elite QB and then they picked 2 others in Ramsey and Park that weren’t even close. Couple that with pathetic OL recruiting, tells me Bobo isnt the guy that will be great SEC HC.
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Was it Richt who threw the pick into double coverage during OT of the Tech game? His brain wasn’t the only one with gas. Fran Tarkenton is an NFL Hall of Fame qb who could run the ball. Punch yourself in the face for that comparison.
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Park is now doing well at a P5 school. Signing him was not a whiff for some reason hwe and Schottie had no connection. He has grown up and playwed well.
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^^^^ Sarcasm^^^^
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Am I the only one noticing the that the bulk of the charts show the projections were wrong in the first place? As an overall concept If they were that far off at the beginning of the year, then why do we care how they ended up?
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Seems to have discredited itself.
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So being 7-5 and losing to key rivals does not create a parallel to you? Sounds similar to me.
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Kirby farted away a lot more talent this year than Bobo did. Like I said, other than that, good point.
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Anyone wondering about his first year as a head coach in the mighty mountain west? 7–6. With a little luck, he will win the potato bowl so he would show improvement and the “should have hired Bobo” meme can grow legs this offseason. That’d be fun.
I say that in jest but, sadly, it will probably be a real thing.
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How is Ole Miss not at the top of the disappointment list?
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You mean the team that was beating UGA 45-0 in the third quarter?
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Yeah, but did they do that to any teams who were good at football?
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Let Kirby get a 5-star recruiting thing going and take the heat for all things Process and the changes required. Get McGarity fired.
Then bring in Bobo after a couple more years of head coaching experience.
Throwaway years or necessary change? Could be both.
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I truly think that some folks want Kirby to fail…strange times.
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I don’t think people want Kirby to fail (if they do, go find another team to cheer for). I think a lot of people want the person currently sitting in the AD position out regardless of how Kirby does.
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Maybe you and others should have joined in my kicking that sort of thinking around when chili was doing it. You can’t pick which of our coaches it’s ok to pull against. It’s never ok.
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Agree Derek. We need to support the team, program and its HC. That said, unfortunately some of us have already concluded that Kirby isn’t the answer and things are just playing out now. I am one. I hope I am wrong but if I am right I sincerely hope B-M won’t leave the program twisting in the wind for years like they did with Ray Goff and we end up like UT–years wasted in purgatory. These decisions do have consequences.
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UT wasn’t recruiting top 5 classes. This class and next and even last years were light years better than what Richt (or UT) was doing especially from the roster management side and OL. Big difference. He has 3 years but next year will be big.
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I’d say you’re a bit early to conclude anything about CKS as a head coach at UGA.
The revisionism on Ray has always amazed me. He was 5 points from being undefeated in 1992. Yes we should have canned him after 1994, but if Edwards and Bobo don’t go down who knows what that 1995 team could have done? One of the best offensive lines we’ve ever had.
The bottom line is the soonest you could have axed Ray was 1994. Did waiting an extra year really harm the program? Everybody acts like we waited forever to fire the guy and its just not true. One year too long at most.
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I understand your point about Goff and it is well stated. However, after the 1992 UF game I was convinced he would never beat Spurrier and then 1993 convinced me that we would always be at the mediocre level under Goff.
Ray’s reputation as an ace in home recruiter was the thing that got him hired, and his 1990 class proved that. However, in spring (iirc) 1990 the NCAA changed recruiting rules to restrict the contacts a head coach could have with recruits. That hit Goff at where his was best. Incidentally it hit Pat Dye at where Dye was best, too. Both did not recruit as well after that point.
I do not know if keeping Goff in 1995 created long term hurt to the program. I do not know what replacements we could have gotten in 1995 that were not available in 1996. I do believe that the uncertainty created by the “significant improvement ” mandate may have affected talent acquisition in December 1994 and in 1995.
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One year, you are easily convinced…
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I am not convinced of anything after one year, except that the 2016 record was worse than the 2015 record against the same teams we played in 2015 (6-2 against SC, UT, Vandy, UK, UF, Mizzou, Auburn and Tech in 2015, 4-4 in 2016.)
I am not convinced Smart will be an improvement over the previous head coach after one year and I am not convinced he will not be.
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We twisted for 10 years…
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You were ready to fire Richt in 2006?
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After 1 year, I don’t know if Kirby is Nick Saban, Mark Richt, Ray Goff, Boom, or SOD, but I’m willing to give 3 (maybe 4) years to find out. He is the head coach of my alma mater, and I’m going to support him until he proves to me that he doesn’t deserve my support any longer. It’s the same standard I’ve applied to every head coach in the post-Dooley era. Goff lost me after Homecoming 1994. Donnan lost me after Auburn 1999. CMR never lost me (although he came close in 2010 and a record like this year’s record probably would have sent me over the edge).
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+1
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Amen, Derek.
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Schadenfreude is a real thing dude ,deal with it. What were those of us who didn’t think hiring NotSo Smart was the answer suppose to do exactly? When I opined at the firing of CMR ( after beating GT) that statistically there was very little chance that this was going to result in improvement I was referred to as everything BUT a child of god. Now that I was empirically, actually and unquestionably proven correct am I required to switch to the glass half full camp? That is just not going to happen just because you want me to. I want the Dawgs to succeed but that will be accomplished by cleaning out B-M and firing the rookie head coach as soon as possible and not by giving him on the job training at my Alma mater’s expense. I don’t want NotSo to fail personally , it is just that I am as certain that he will fail as I was certain he wasn’t going to improve over the previous coach’s record. Cut our losses….fire em all. Now you can all feel free to recycle all epithets used against the Pro-Richt crowd but they won’t change the fact that I told you so.
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LMAO
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wewoof, you are indeed a child of God
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Correct me if I’m wrong. This is a real question. I’m just too lazy to look it up because I’m supposed to be working. But hasn’t Perno, Yoculan & Richt all 3 left or been fired under ADGM’s watch? I’m surprised he hasn’t fired Manny Diaz. Maybe ADGM was at UF too long and became a sleeper agent.
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Is there any way we could purchase Fran Tarkenton’s degree back from him? And transfer his football stats to another university of his choosing?
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Back to back 7-5 seasons at CSU don’t seem all that impressive to me. It will be a dark day in Georgia football if Bobo ever gets crowned HC in Athens methinks.
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CB, your responses to anything about Coach Bobo reflect your obvious disapproval of him.
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Glad somebody is catching on.
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There won’t be hype for Georgia in 2017.
Our schedule brings a good opportunity to get on the second list.
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I think it’s pretty clearly evident that Kirby is being incredibly strategic in laying this turd in year 1, to dampen expectations, depress the mood of the fanbase, so that he can win 8 games in the regular season next year, which will elate the fanbase to see a 14% improvement in win totals in only 1 year.
Listen, Kirby is playing 9 dimensional chess and you’re all just playing checkers.
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You win the comments for the day. This is perfect.
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Get those damn Hartman Fund donations in now! Sick of this shit!
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