It’s time to trot out the preseason FPI rankings, everybody!
The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI.
Combining all of the factors above produces a predicted value on offense, defense and special teams, which represents the number of points that each unit would be expected to contribute to the team’s scoring margin if it were to face an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Georgia pops up at number 13, good enough for tops in the SEC East… for what that’s worth.
Meanwhile KC Joyner, who’s brought you such previous hits as Marcus Lattimore, overrated player, and John Brantley’s preseason game greatness, now wants you to know that Georgia is a legitimate college football playoff contender. In 2017, I mean.
It’s only February, and the offseason feels too damned long already.
Get The Picture 
Rankings in February? They know we’re addicts.
LikeLike
Spin cycle? Rinse, repeat?
There’s a whole lot of “Chubb up the middle into a loaded box” to endure before we see a top 15 ranking…..
LikeLike
Same spin. One source Joyner citing as “proof’ UGA will be great in 2017, was their ranking in the Mark Schlaback way too early poll. Seems like this same way too early had UGA at No 13 preseason last year too, and we ended up unranked and 8-5.
People are overvaluing the recruiting (UGA averages top 10 there for over 15 seasons and 2 championships) and the lack of production of returning starters (no all SEC players return). Kirby’s inexperience is also being overlooked.
LikeLike
Next stats to reveal the rankings of teams by how well they moved the ball on second and eight in odd numbered quarters.
LikeLike
Logical approach but imagine how excited we would be in the last two Bobo years were given the most weight and the Shotty/Chaney results were faded. Might provide serious support Mr.Joyner’s over inflated view of UGA’s upcoming season. Let us be happy with keeping FU home in early December.
LikeLike
Good point Mac, I agree this view of UGA is overinflated, I mean it’s based off of Richt’s stats 3 of 4 seasons, and the other factor is returning starters and returning Qb, UGA didn’t get top production anywhere on offense with any returning starter, so who cares if they return if they didn’t produce? Must be largely discounting production of returning starters.
LikeLike
This stuff makes recruiting rankings look scientific.
LikeLike
The team finished 42 in FPI last year, due to a lackluster special teams (113 ranked) and offense (69 ranked). Defense finished decent (19).
This is a 4 year average, 2013, 2014, 2015 Kirby’s staff wasn’t a part of the statistics.
So I don’t put a lot of stock in this tool for a brand new staff, how is how Richt’s staff performed relevant?
LikeLike
my 9 year old made the same prediction. what does that tell ya?
LikeLike
It’s only February, and the offseason feels too damned long already.
When I woke up Sunday morning after the Vandy game …the season seemed too damned long. (sigh)
LikeLike
I don’t know about other teams, but all we can really go off of as far as predicting UGA’s team next year is last years performance by returning players, a little of the incoming class (which is a shaky basis for any kind of prediction).
After that its a hope and a prayer that (1) Chubb is going to be back to his freshman/sophomore self with another offseason under his belt after the injury; (2) the line improves; (3) the returning receivers hands improve or a freshman is a stud; and (4) that Eason takes the step forward he should from his freshman to sophomore seasons, which will depend heavily on how 2 and 3 turn out.
There will be some hype for this team going into next year, but I feel good about Smart’s ability to manage the team’s mentality in the face of that. If nothing else, he’s a skilled poor mouther.
LikeLike