Vegas looks at the SEC East and scratches its head.

You can bet eight wins for Georgia and Florida, 7.5 for Tennessee.

My first reaction is “oh, bullshit”… but on reflection, I kind of get where they’re coming from.  Fandom aside, which school of those three do you want to go out on a limb with today?

Speaking of which, it will be interesting to see how these totals change as the season approaches.

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26 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

26 responses to “Vegas looks at the SEC East and scratches its head.

  1. Uglydawg

    Fandom aside..Georgia. But not with a whole lot of confidence. I see UGA as the more talented team, UF as the better (based on last year) coached team, and TN with less talent and iffy coaching. Florida can’t change it’s talent level, but CKS can improve. If he does, it’ll be UGA in ATL. I’m also concerned that SC and the rest of the East, will be better than we think.

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    • Uglydawg

      And that isn’t to be negatively critical of Kirby Smart, but just recognizing the experience levels aren’t the same. Yet Booch has a lot of HC experience but I hesitatingly discount it.. Probably wrongfully so, hopefully not.

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      • The thing that gives me the most hope is the several seniors who decided to stay for their Sr. year, not to mention the coaches have stayed in place for a second year, IMO that is pretty significant given the high turnover in recent years.

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        • juniors staying for Sr. year……smh

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        • DawgPhan

          I know everyone loves a great story, but considering that Dalvin Cook went in the 2nd round, I think that our 2 backs likely got some good advice to just come back and try and be healthy for a year. Neither was going in the first day of the draft.

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  2. Ace

    Bama and Ohio State may have the highest win estimates, but they also look to be significantly safer bets than the win totals for the other leading teams on that list.

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  3. I was most surprised by Auburn at 8. UGA at 8 was lower than I would have guessed, but not by more than 1/2 a game. To me it’s worth some coin as a push is likely the worst case scenario. 8.5 changes that for sure.

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  4. Red Cup

    Because of the schedule I think UGA has the better chance to exceed the win totals. Tenn gets LSU and Bama from the west. Florida has FSU, LSU and Michigan on its schedule.

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  5. sniffer

    These estimates are also betting opportunities, are they not? Remember, kids, vegas wants your money.

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  6. MGW

    Georgia at 8 is pretty dang safe.

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    • Macallanlover

      You bet it is, and they are pretty solid on it with -115 on both the over and under. Push at 8, and have to go 7-5 or worse to lose your bet. Nothing is a lock in betting but this is very comfortable, doesn’t get much better. I expected the over/under number on UGA to be nine, or 9.5, and the odds to be a little higher. Dawgs aren’t losing five regular season games with this experience and schedule.

      Poor Bama fans have to lay 1500 to win a thousand and they are at 10.5 with FSU, LSU, and Auburn on the schedule. Much riskier. I think FSU takes them down in the opener which would mean they have to go undefeated after that. Guess they feel Bama fans will bet on them regardless of the risk while UGA fans are stuck in negative territory.

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  7. Skeptic Dawg

    8 wins is where I see the Dawgs ending up again this season for reasons I have stated prior to (poor QB, OL, WR, DL and red zone play). If anything, I like the Dawgs and the understand. The bet that sticks out to me is South Carolina at 5 and a hook. Just looking at Carolina’s schedule, 7 plus wins should be within their reach. Wins over NC State, Mizzou, Vandy, La Tech and Kentucky out of the gate should have this squad believing.

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  8. Squatchdawg

    For an over under line 8 is about right….I still think we get the over but I’m biased.

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  9. The other Doug

    UGA- take the over. I see 8 or more wins, and I struggle to see 7 or less. 8 is very likely, but that’s a push.

    UF- How do you feel about their QB position? What about UofM and FSU out of conference? Take the under.

    UT- They play Bama and LSU from the West, and GT out of conference. The GT game is the swing game, and I think they lose it. Take the under.

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    • PTC DAWG

      IF GT beats UT, their fans will be totally out of hiding for a while.

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      • The other Doug

        Most DCs struggle with the triple option the first time they face it, so I like Tech’s chances.

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        • Rocket Dawg

          I would agree with you there Doug but they have all summer to prepare for it. GT has shown that if you play them in a bowl game or early where you can dedicate summer camp time to learning how to defense the Nerdbone then you will do ok. As much as we like to bash on SGT Carter and his merry band of misfits up in Knoxvegas I feel like with SEC caliber athletes and time to prepare they should be old Fish Fry pretty handily.

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          • Mayor

            I don’t get it guys. Have you looked at Georgia’s “easy” schedule? All their toughest games are on the road. I see likely losses to ND, UT, Auburn, FU and GT (Tech has beaten the Dawgs 2 out of the last 3 times they have played and I see another this year unless Kirby grows a brain in the next 6 months). That is 7-5 if the Dawgs win all their other games–and that probably isn’t happening. Vandy beat the Dawgs in Athens last year and has won the game 2 out of the last 4 times the teams have played. We barely got past UK last season and UK will be the SEC East’s most improved team. Georgia probably will get upset by at least one of those–maybe both. Missy State beat Ole Miss at the end of last season–a team that beat UGA by 40 points–and is going to be a tough out. I just hope we get bowl eligible. Midway through the season the fanbase will be howling for Kirby’s scalp. The wakeup call will be when the Dawgs barely get by Appy State. I hope I am wrong but…….

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  10. Can someone explain what the significance of the -115, +120 is?

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    • Also if you bet $1000 on UGA either way and they win 8, do you lose the $1000? If so, why would you ever pick anything that didn’t include a 1/2 thus eliminating the chance of losing you money on a push?

      As you can tell I’m no sports bettor, but I have seen some easy picks I’ve regretted not taking. Alabama vs. Notre Dame is one. UGA/Hawaii is another. The over on my dawgs looks somewhat appealing IF I get some of my money back on a push. I’d lay $100 on them if I lose on a push but I might go more if I don’t.

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      • Dave

        For pushes, I think you lose 15 on -115…..meaning you get 100 bac in case of a tie…..so I think it is: bet 115—-7 wins or less you lose it all. 8 wins you get 100 back, for a -15 loss. 9 wins or more, you get 215 back for a 100 gain. If you are really into finance, there are carrying/opportunity costs too as this bet takes some time to pay off, but interest rates are super low now anyways so that is a few cents at best….someone correct me if mistaken

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    • DawgPhan

      Believe that means you have to bet $115 to win $100

      +$120 means you bet $100 to win $120

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      • Macallanlover

        Exactly right. Bets are proportional to $100 ( you can get $11.50 on UGA and would win $10, or $115 to win $100, or $1150 to win $1000, etc.) If UGA wins 9 or more you get your $115 back, plus $100 from the book, if they only win 7, they keep your $115, and if they win 8, it is a push (tie), and you get the money you wagered back, and they keep theirs.

        The fact is -115 over, and -115 under indicates the bets are fairly well balanced on both sides so they aren’t trying to lure, or discourage, bets on either side. When you see a + number, say +120 or +130, etc., they are wanting to get more bettors attracted to that side to get their numbers more in balance. Sports books want very little risk in the bet regardless of what happens in the season (or game) that is wagered on. So if the money is out of balance, they “sweeten the pot”. In the case of UGA at -115 on both sides, they will basically win 15% of the losing side’s bet, thus profiting
        7 1/2 percent of the total money bet on UGA at 8 wins. Now the bets will never exactly balance so their actual return could be slightly higher, or lower, than 7 1/2%.

        Notice the Alabama numbers, they have a much higher cost to bet the over (-150) and offer a higher return (+120) to bet the under. so they are way out of balance on that particular prop bet and trying to get the money on the two sides closer together. Often they would change the Over/Under game number to get more bets on the other side (just like they adjust the point spreads during the season to attract more money to the underdog) but this is more difficult to do so they vary the odds both ways until they get it pretty close to balance.

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