Lies, damned lies and ESPN’s statistics

This ESPN preview of the Rose Bowl is a total hoot.  According to ESPN’s own analytics:

  • FPI projects Georgia has a 53% chance to win the game and better odds to win the national title than Oklahoma.
  • Georgia is the more efficient team overall, and while Oklahoma’s offense is the most efficient unit in the CFP, there is better than a 30-point spread between its defensive efficiency and Georgia’s offensive efficiency.
  • Baker Mayfield is a bad mother — shut yo’ mouth! — but in four games against ranked teams, Georgia’s defense held opposing quarterbacks to a 14.1 QBR (I know), best in the SEC and fifth-best nationally.
  • Georgia has the most five-star recruits on its roster of any team in the CFP, and over the last four seasons has an average recruiting ranking of 6.75, compared to Oklahoma’s 14.75.

You know the punch line that’s coming, right?

So, what are they paying all those number crunchers for, anyway?

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55 Comments

Filed under ESPN Is The Devil, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

55 responses to “Lies, damned lies and ESPN’s statistics

  1. JG Shellnutt

    Just win, baby.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. They’ve had that score prediction up for awhile in a separate “article”- probably came up with it before all the stat work.
    Even though we are the Vegas favorite for now I am glad most are stroking Baker and co.

    Like

    • Russ

      I agree. I want ESPN to tell the world how great OU and Mayfield are. They should consider the Rose Bowl OU’s first round bye.

      Like

  3. Hogbody Spradlin

    They need a one armed prognosticator. (h/t President Truman).

    Like

  4. Biggen

    I read that last night and rolled my eyes as well. What’s the point of the statistics if you don’t honor the end result of them?

    It sure will be nice to see Baker walk out of the rose bowl with a loss.

    Like

  5. Spike

    Sounds of Spike pinning this up on the B-M bulletin board…

    Like

  6. Athens Dog

    Herbie has final say

    Like

  7. The WWL has a woodie for the frat boy douche QB. I love that we seem to be flying under the radar with the national media. It sort of already feels like the ND game all over again. I have confidence that Kirby and Mel will have a plan to slow down the Sooner offense.

    #KeepChopping

    Like

  8. BWD

    Georgia has more five stars on its roster than Bama?

    Like

  9. Dawgs 31 Oklahoma 30 a final score.

    Like

  10. I really wish that I could get gey entered into the Fabris pick the team
    sweepstakes.

    Like

    • Have you tried clinking on the invitation link and following the instructions?

      Like

      • Hogbody Spradlin

        When all else fails . . .

        Like

      • Russ

        Well, I’m another one. Got to the site, but can’t find the pool. What’s the pool name? Tried Fabris, and Fabris Bowl Pool but it can’t find them.

        The “instructions” are great for those that are repeat members I guess.

        Like

        • Russ

          Okay, found that my browser opened a new window with the info filled out, while also going to the next page where I can pick a blank pool. Confusing, but I guess I’m one of the cool kids now.

          Like

        • Full name of the pick ’em is The 2017 Fabris Invitational CFB Bowl Pool.

          Like

          • Macallanlover

            Bowls are always the most difficult picks of them all (time off in between, coaching changes, motivation issues, key players sitting out, etc.), but this particular season is the strongest group of match-ups I have ever seen. Think I should go “contrarian” and pick every game opposite of what my analysis indicates. The spread pools actually look easier than the “confidence” method; primarily because I feel so little confidence in almost every single game! But should be fun watching.

            Like

            • Russ

              I used to not like the “confidence number” picks until I understood the strategy behind it. I used it for my financial gain a few years ago. Actually picked OU over Bama just because everyone in the list picked Bama. I picked OU and put a lot of confidence points on it. When they upset an unmotivated Bama, I jumped to the top and won the pool on the strength of that. Straight up picks are harder to separate from the pack.

              Like

              • Macallanlover

                I am not trying to diss that type pool, it makes for so,me interesting strategies, and allows you to adjust your picks relative to your standing as things progress, even reversing your pick for what you feel will happen just to gain ground. My point is, how can you be in a confidence pool when you have no confidence in more than 15% of the games? I have just never seen such difficult picks in a bowl season. And that is further aggravated by not knowing which coaches are really working the players, and do they even care as much as in the past?

                Weird to think I will do better picking in the spread pools than just picking the games straight up. These aren’t big money pools, only $20 to $100 dollar entry fees, but I like to be competitive and this year I am already looking for a white flag before they even start.

                Like

  11. Looks like ESPN doesn’t believe in their own fake news..

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Stoopnagle

    Here’s hoping we are able to run it at them all day, keep their QB on the sidelines, break them once or twice when he’s out there, and wear their defense out.

    Like

    • gastr1

      If we can limit their biggest gain to 20-25 yards all day, I like our chances. Can’t have a repeat of the first half versus Missouri.

      Like

  13. BCDawg97

    Is it a battle of the “it” factor? Fromm’s moxie vs Mayfield’s moxie?

    Like

  14. Brandon

    I’ve never born any particular I’ll will to OU, but some of their fans are really talking a lot of smack too. The thing that pissed me off the most was one fool on their SB nation site said their GIRLS were better looking than ours. To hell you say. I’m hoping for a 1984 Super Bowl, Dolphins-49ers redux. For you young’uns, that year everybody was all Dan Marino, Dan Marino, Dolphins, Greatest Offense Ever, the 49ers rolled in their with a great defense, a running game, and “game manager” Joe Montana and whipped that Dolphin ass. I forget who it was but one of those 49ers guys in the NFL films video looks right in the camera on the sideline and (talking to the media) goes “y’all came to see an offense and the wrong one showed up!”. Marino was very whiny the whole game as Ronnie Lott and company had him running for his life. So shall it be in Pasadena.

    Liked by 2 people

  15. illini84

    Anybody get their tickets from the AA yet?

    Like

  16. Matt

    They do the same thing on the Clemson / Bama analysis. All the statistics point toward Alabama, but they predict a Clemson win

    Like

  17. Gene Simmons

    Here’s to giving the golden boy one more reason to cry….and offer up a fake apology later on. I see us getting at him with pressure early and this causing him to get chippy. We have the hosses to win; I just hope we keep our heads in the game and don’t let him get on a roll….
    GO DAWGS!

    Like

  18. PTC DAWG

    You read it here first, UGA by at least 3 touchdowns….

    Like

  19. WF Dawg

    I’d be kind of surprised if we only put up 29 on them.

    Like

  20. DawgPhan

    I am surprised that UGA has more 5 star players than Bama.

    Like

  21. saildawg

    I love how it is an article based on stats, stats, and more stats. Then the final prediction goes against those stats with no explanation. But that horse cartoon was top notch! Well done ESPN. I will say that the Oklahoma RPO play described will be a nightmare to stop.

    Like

  22. Rampdawg

    Never mind that the mule is blind, just load the wagon.

    Like

  23. Hobnail_Boot

    They don’t want yet another title game between 2 southern teams. They were going to predict an OU victory, regardless of opponent.

    Like

  24. AusDawg85

    We are headed for Revenge in the Benz II…UGA v. Bama were we get vindication for 2012.

    Like

  25. Dawg19

    “Statistics are for losers.”

    Dan Devine, head coach of Notre Dame, when told by an NBC reporter that the Irish had actually outgained the Bulldogs in the 1981 Sugar Bowl.

    Like