Crimson benefit of the doubt?

To amplify my earlier take on Alabama this morning, let’s turn to Bill Connelly’s last preseason edition of SP+ ($$).  His opening paragraph is where I’ve been on this edition of the Tide.

The college football hierarchy for 2023 is taking on a pretty familiar look: known heavyweights at the top, followed by a chaotic mess. In this year’s final preseason SP+ projections, the Georgia Bulldogs, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide all start out within 1.1 points of each other … and at least five points ahead of everyone else. Three of those teams are breaking in new quarterbacks and offensive coordinators, and that might be an opportunity for a shakeup, but these four teams have gone a combined 100-12 over the past two seasons (95-7 in games that aren’t against each other) and claimed six of eight College Football Playoff bids. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.

Okay, they’re shaky because of certain transitions on the offense, but they’re hardly alone in that regard.

Then again, they’re shaky because of certain transitions on the offense and Bill has them ranked 122nd (out of 133) in returning production, about which he writes,

Although it doesn’t correlate to pure quality — the Kansas Jayhawks and Missouri Tigers aren’t national title threats just because they’re ranked first and second below (oh, to dream of a return to 2007) — teams at the top of the list tend to improve a solid amount and teams at the bottom usually regress…

The national average for returning production is 60.8% this season, the lowest of any percentages of the past decade. (I began collecting this data for the 2014 season.) Even though I incorporate incoming transfers’ FBS production into the numbers for their new teams, this suggests that when teams lose players to transfer, they aren’t necessarily replacing them with players with the same level of production.

Yeah, it doesn’t correlate to pure quality, but tell me how Saban’s dive into the transfer portal last season worked out.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how Alabama shapes up, at least early on until they prove they haven’t missed a beat.

Trick play, 2023 edition

Would I pay good money to see this?

Bowers was asked by Atlanta radio station 92.9 FM if there’s a new way he could be used on offense.

“If Coach Bobo, I’d love to throw it,” said Bowers, a triple-option quarterback his freshman year of high school. “I don’t know if I have the accuracy to do it.”

Hells yeah, I would.  Throw the damned ball, Bobo.

“Easy?!” asked one CFP insider. “No. Not for this group.”

With the tattered shreds of the Pac-12 on life support, the rest of the parties with access to the CFP are getting ready to rumble.  At stake is the format.

The format should be “reconsidered,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said on “The Paul Finebaum Show” last week. In an interview with Yahoo Sports, Sankey said all three facets of the CFP should be re-examined: the weighted decision-making process, revenue-distribution model and format.

While many commissioners expect and understand that such a conversation should happen, one of them disagrees with any change to the agreed-upon 12-team format. The format — described as a 6+6 model — includes automatic access for the six highest-ranked conference champions (6 AQs) and at-large spots to the next six highest-ranked teams (6 at-larges).

In one corner…

“We’d fight the adjustment. We’d be against it, but we do understand it would have to come up,” said Mike Aresco, commissioner of the American Athletic Conference, historically the most successful of the Group of Five leagues.

And in the other…

• a change in the 12-team format, which, it is believed, will require unanimity. “The Big Ten and SEC are not standing at 6+6,” said one CFP decision-maker. “Both are probably going to say, ‘Let’s just look to the rankings with all at-larges.’”

Picking the behemoths to win isn’t a slam dunk.  For one thing, Dellenger reports that a format change has to be unanimously consented to.  For another, politics.

Eliminating automatic qualifiers is a certain way to trigger backlash from Group of Five commissioners as well as congressional lawmakers, both from states without a Power Five school and those closely connected to G5 programs. (Keep in mind that the NCAA and Power Five commissioners have been lobbying lawmakers for congressional NIL legislation.)

It sounds like it may come down to a fight over one of two options.

According to decision-makers, two formats loom as the most likely discussion topics:

• 5+7: The number of teams remains 12, but automatic qualifiers drop from six to five and at-large spots increase from six to seven. The five highest-ranked conference champions get AQs and the seven next highest-ranked teams receive at-large spots. This still guarantees that one Group of 5 champion earns a bid into the playoff. With nine conferences, a 6+6 model would guarantee at least two Group of Five champions receive a bid.

• Best 12: In this scenario, the top 12 teams are seeded into a playoff in a similar way that the four-team playoff now operates. There are no automatic qualifiers. Last fall, the chair of the CFP Board of Managers, Mississippi State president Mark Keenum, proposed a Best 12 model, but it did not garner enough support to pass.

Who throws the biggest hissy fit?  Who gets their way in the end?  We shall see.

Steele’s order of finish for this season’s SEC

Eh, why not share?

WEST

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Texas A&M
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Auburn
7. Mississippi State

EAST

1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Missouri
7. Vanderbilt

I have to admit that, for the most part, I’m in agreement with his picks.  The two places I disagree are Auburn in the West and Kentucky in the East.  I think both will finish higher.

Freeze is, shall we say, a bit questionable, but he can coach and I think the Tigers will benefit from his presence at Arky’s expense.  I think Steele is reading a bit too much into South Carolina — yeah, they finished nicely last season, but their lines are still marginal and that’s still how you win in this conference.  Kentucky should be pretty good defensively and improved offensively, with a better quarterback and offensive coordinator than the ‘Cats had last season.

Like many, I’m torn on ‘Bama.  Still loaded, but with a ginormous question mark at quarterback.  I reserve the right to change my mind before the season starts.

Your thoughts?

Not the take I was expecting

Ho hum, just another clip praising this year’s Georgia squad by… Danny Kanell?

"There will be 4⭐️ and 5⭐️ NFL talent all across the field."

🗣️ @dannykanell breaks down how @GeorgiaFootball will replace Stetson Bennett's production at QB in 2023. pic.twitter.com/coFPVPeiWs

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) August 16, 2023

Will wonders never cease?