Third time’s the charm

While I may not agree with them, there are two schools of thought on why Georgia won’t three-peat this season that I can at least respect.  One is what Bruce Feldman espoused the other day — in an era where the quarterback has never been more important, he’s giving contenders with returning starters a leg up over those without.  (Caveat:  I give him credit for the logical consistency he showed, as opposed to the GameDay crew.)

The other is what I’d call the “it’s too damned hard to win three national championships” school.  A good example of that comes from Matt Hinton, in his 2023 SEC preview.

Let’s get bold: Georgia will not 3-peat as national champion.

Yeah, I know. Only a fool these days lets himself get caught disrespectin’ the Dawgs, even by accident. Coming right out and volunteering for the job is an act of pure hubris. The defending champs earned 60 out of 63 first-place votes in the preseason AP poll and 61 out of 66 in the Coaches Poll, both of which they probably took in the locker room as grave insults for not being unanimous. They’re heavy favorites among the oddsmakers. This space has chronicled their relentless dominance over the past 2 seasons in minute detail, and been occasionally dead wrong in the process. The Dawgs slobber and rage over the idea that even a single living soul has even the slightest hint of doubt about their place at the top of the sport. If they do go all the way again, and Kirby Smart doesn’t have this column converted into a mock newspaper headline ready to wave in front of the cameras as the confetti falls in NRG Stadium next January, I might be a little insulted.

Yet here we are, undeterred. Let’s observe some facts. One: A 3-peat is unprecedented. No team in the modern history of the “national championship” has won 3 consecutive titles under any widely recognized system. (By “modern” I mean since the advent of the AP poll in 1936; I don’t want to hear anything about retroactive crowns claimed years after the fact.) Winning 2 in a row is rare enough that only a small handful of teams have even had the chance. Among that exclusive club, the Leinart/Bush-era dynasty at USC from 2003-05 is the only one that has seriously threatened to pull it off, coming up just short in the classic January, 2006 Rose Bowl with one of the most stacked rosters of all-time. In a sport with constant turnover, 2 years is the natural lifespan of a championship core.

To extend that point: Georgia lost, among others, its best player, herculean DL Jalen Carter; its face-of-the-program quarterback, Stetson Bennett IV; and its offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, indispensable cogs of both championship runs who will be very difficult to replace in assembly-line fashion. No defending champion has gone back-to-back with a different starting quarterback in Year 2 since Alabama in 1979 (a far less QB-centric era, to put it mildly). Altogether, only 3 starters remain from the 2021 lineup, none of them on defense. The ’23 version shares plenty of its predecessors’ DNA, but it is not the same team.

And as convincing as its closing statement against TCU was in last season’s CFP Championship Game, recall also that Georgia was pushed within half an inch of its life by Ohio State in a come-from-behind, 42-41 win in the Peach Bowl just to get there. Combined with a decisive loss to Bama in the ’21 SEC Championship Game, the notion that the Dawgs have been some kind of invincible monolith in the biggest games, or that their eventual triumph was inevitable, does not quite hold up. Nor are they inevitable in 2023.

Now, does any of that mean they don’t deserve their status as the default No. 1 team in the nation to open the season? Definitely not. Georgia has earned the benefit of the doubt in that position until further notice. Which, given the schedule, is almost certainly not going to arrive for a while. The early nonconference slate consists entirely of chew toys (UT-Martin, Ball State, UAB), and the SEC gauntlet is unusually backloaded, saving the only opponents who cracked the preseason AP poll — No. 22 Ole Miss and No. 12 Tennessee — for the home stretch in November. Auburn and Florida are in various stages of rebuilding; Georgia Tech is Georgia Tech; Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M are conspicuously absent. The Dawgs will only play 4 true road games, with only a Nov. 18 trip to Knoxville looming as a legitimate test. That gives them nearly the entire regular season to resolve any question marks and iron out any wrinkles.

Who’s going to beat them? Your guess is as good as mine. The other heavy hitters awaiting in the postseason all have their fair share of question marks and wrinkles, too. A random midseason ambush is always a possibility (as Georgia fans know well), but by definition one that no one sees coming in advance. It’s up to the South Carolinas and Missouris of the world to convince themselves they can be that team, not anybody on the outside to believe it. In the meantime, UGA will continue to be the clear betting favorite every time out.

I mean, if it were easier to do, somebody would have already done it in the interim since Minnesota pulled it of in 1926 1936, right?  (And, really, when you dig down into what he’s written, it’s not like he’d be exactly surprised if the Dawgs managed to pull it off, despite the history.)

It makes the world go ’round.

The CFP honchos have a scheduled meeting today.  Dennis Dodd is reporting that they’re “unlikely to make key decisions despite loaded docket”.  Is it because they’re waiting to see how the Pac-4 shakes out?  Unlikely, judging from this comment:

“The handwriting is on the wall,” one commissioner told CBS Sports.” There’s not going to be a Pac-12 left.”

The haves are going to shove the have-nots up against the wall when it comes to redistribution.  We know that.  So what’s the hold up?

C’mon, man.  What’s always the issue when you’re talking about college football?

• Commissioners aren’t in a position to discuss revenue distribution. Negotiations for that new CFP contract (beginning in 2026) probably won’t begin for another 6-8 months, sources tell CBS Sports.
• Only after that can revenue distribution be discussed. In the current model, the Power Five conferences each get $80 million annually as a flat participation fee. You shouldn’t have to be told there is no longer a Power Five with the dissolution of the Pac-12. Nor should you have to be told the Big Ten and SEC will likely seek a larger piece of the pie for themselves.

What happens if they get the same message that the SEC has gotten from Mickey about shelling out more bucks in a time of budget cutting?

“Halftime adjustments is an overused word.”

What’s the difference between halftime evaluation and halftime adjustments?  Allow Kirby Smart ($$) to explain, grasshopper.

“I think it’s more important now than it’s ever been, with the advent of the offense,” Smart said. “There’s so much volume of offense out there that by half you feel like you have an understanding of where they’re trying to attack you and what they’re trying to do. So you obviously get more time to go adjust at halftime. Back in the days of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, it wasn’t like that. … You could tweak some things. But now there’s alternatives. There’s a lot more offense out there. Every offensive play has three plays on it, so defenses have to find ways to be creative, to create an advantage. I think there’s more strategy now.”

But Smart echoed the other coaches: The importance of halftime adjustments, per se, makes the term overused. Halftime is not a matter of devising a new plan. Then the coach of the two-time defending champion Bulldogs went into a mini-riff on second-half strategy.

“Some offenses hold things for second halves, Some defenses hold things for second halves. I’ve always been a believer in it if it’s good enough to use it you better use it in the first half and not save it for the second half,” he said. “We try to do a good job of doing that. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t.

“But it has a lot more to do with the players, not the adjustments.”

Sounds a little esoteric to me, but given the way Georgia played after halftime in the Rose Bowl against Oklahoma, Smart can call it whatever he wants.

Speaking of which, make sure you catch Seth’s little story about the end of the first half in that game.  Maybe that explains how Coley got the OC job in 2019.

All by themselves

David Hale ($$) puts this season’s Georgia team on a pedestal.

Tier 1: Yes, them again (one team)

Georgia

You know those old clown car skits, where a VW Beetle that barely seats four shows up and like 60 clowns hop out? That is essentially what talent production at Georgia looks like these days. Over the past three years, Georgia has had 34 players selected in the NFL draft (approximately 32 of which were drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles), including 13 in the first or second round, and yet the stars keep piling out of the car, one after another, to the point that the rest of college football has to be asking, “How are there still more of these guys?”

So, here we are, fresh off back-to-back national titles for the Bulldogs, and the depth chart still includes Kendall Milton and Mykel Williams and Nazir Stackhouse and Javon Bullard and Malaki Starks and Tate Ratledge and Brock Bowers (No. 2 in ESPN’s top 100 players list). Seriously, how is Bowers only a junior? It’s really not fair.

The biggest looming question as Georgia looks for a third straight national championship is whether a 6-foot-4 former four-star prospect (Carson Beck) can possibly replace a 5-foot-11 onetime walk-on at quarterback (Stetson Bennett).

Like happy hour at Pauley’s in Athens, there’s no sign the fun will end any time soon.

You sure won’t hear me complaining about it.

Mr. Conventional Wisdom, a voice of comfort in uncomfortable times

I gotta tell you — Tony Barnhart has outdone himself with his latest effort.  The header is perfection.

But the chef’s kiss is the subheader that follows.

If that isn’t quintessential Mr. Conventional Wisdom, I don’t know what is.

On that note, the man needs to call it a day.  He’s never going to top that.

This is how you coachspeak.

Kirk Ferentz on Utah State: "Their punter is a good punter."

— Chad Leistikow🆑 (@ChadLeistikow) August 29, 2023

Somewhere, Vince Dooley is smiling and nodding his head.

And before someone goes there, you can’t have a good punter without a good long snappah. 😉

“I just want to help the kid.”

The sad descent of Arik Gilbert’s life continues.

Nebraska tight end Arik Gilbert was arrested on a burglary charge Tuesday morning, On3 and HuskerOnline’s Sean Callahan has learned. He transferred to NU from Georgia this offseason and has been trying get immediate eligibility.

Gilbert was taken into custody Tuesday morning in Lancaster County, according to police records.

What a waste almost seems like an understatement at this point.  I hope this is rock bottom, but fear it may not be.  The bad thing is that he’s had more support up until now than most folks in his situation ever get.  What happens when Nebraska cuts him loose?

***************************************************************************

UPDATE:

Nebraska tight end Arik Gilbert was arrested without incident shortly before 2 a.m. this morning at SJ's Liquor and Vape Shop in Lincoln. He was apprehended by officers while carrying a bag that contained $1,672 in vape products, Delta 8, cigars and lighters.

— Mitch Sherman (@mitchsherman) August 29, 2023

First thoughts on the opener

As I suspect is the case for most of you, what I know about UT-Martin could be written on the back of a matchbook, with room to spare.  So, as is my usual wont in situations like this, I’ll farm out the first take to macondawg, at Dawg Sports.

The Skyhawk File

Conference: Ohio Valley Conference (FCS)

2022 record: 7-4 (5-0 OVC)

Home Field: Graham Stadium (capacity 7500)

Head Coach: Jason Simpson (17th season, 107-84 overall)

Key Fact #1: A big fish in a small pond.

Yes, UT-Martin is an FCS school and they play in a stadium that accommodates only about 500 more people than Colquitt County’s Mack Tharpe Stadium. No, they do not have a roster stuffed with former five star recruits. But graded on a curve, the Skyhawks are a dynasty in the making.

Over the past two seasons they’ve compiled a 17-7 record, including a scorching 10-1 record in the Ohio Valley en route to two straight conference titles. During that stretch they’ve taken on the likes of Western Kentucky, Boise State, and Tennessee. In fact the Skyhawks were tied 7-7 with the Vols last year during the first quarter in Neyland before the Big Orange pulled away to win 65-24. Skyhawk quarterback Dresser Winn threw for 301 yards and 2 touchdowns on the Tennessee defense. Winn now plays QB for the L.A. Rams, like a couple of other guys we know.

Point being, these guys have been to an SEC stadium, they have won a lot of football games. While they may be outmanned, they will not likely be star-struck.

Their head coach has been in the job for more than fifteen years.  They have three players in tight end DJ Nelson, offensive guard Gavin Olson and defensive end Daylan Dotson who are all considered pretty stout.  That said, they’re breaking in a new quarterback.  Last season’s best wide receiver is gone, too.  On defense, they run a three-man front, which I suspect is going to be mowed down routinely by Georgia’s offensive line.  And let’s not forget we’re talking about an FCS team that simply lacks the kind of depth Georgia will throw at them.

The Fabris Pool line is UGA -32.5, which seems kind of light from where I’m sitting.

Looking ahead, SEC East edition

I’m putting together my annual SEC predictions post for this week and I must say I’m following the same thinking Pat Forde displays here:

• Overrated: Tennessee. Replacing a guy who finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting (Hendon Hooker) probably won’t be that easy. Same with breakout receiving star Jalin Hyatt. Circle Sept. 16 in The Swamp as an early barometer on whether the Volunteers can replicate last year’s 11–2 season.
• Dash team guarantee: Florida will again beat Utah to open the year, and it again will be a false positive indicator for the season to come.

Although in UT’s case, it’s more about wondering if SEC defensive coordinators are going to start catching up to Heupel’s offensive scheme, at least enough to force the Vols’ defense to win a game or two.

But, yes, I can easily see the false hope a Gator win in the opener would bring.  And I’m here for that!

“What we’re doing at Georgia, I’m not sure anyone else is.”

Chip Towers:

It’s game week on the UGA Campus, but there’s a decidedly different feel than there has been the last couple of years.

It’s not about expectations. Those are through the roof again, as per usual. It’s more about anticipation.

Back-to-back defending national champion and preseason No. 1-ranked Georgia opens the season against Tennessee-Martin on Saturday (6 p.m., SEC Network Plus). This time two years ago, the Bulldogs were preparing to play a Top 5-ranked Clemson team in the Duke’s Mayo Kickoff. Last year, they were getting ready to face Pac-12 powerhouse Oregon, coached by former UGA defensive coordinator Dan Lanning and an old quarterback nemesis named Bo Nix.

This year, Georgia is readying an FCS team whose claim to fame is back-to-back Ohio Valley titles. Yeah, not quite the same buzz, but the Bulldogs are doing their best to convince themselves otherwise.

“It’s kind of like the same feel as last year,” two-time All-America tight end Brock Bowers said Monday. “We’re all excited to go hit somebody else, to play somebody else other than our defense. I’m sure the defense feels that way about our offense. We’re just excited to get our season going.”

From our selfish standpoint, it’s not hard to see the drastic drop in the quality of the opening opponent from last year’s to this year’s, which makes it a little easier to be skeptical about taking Bowers’ comment at face value.  How could facing UT-Martin have the same feel as taking on Oregon?  (Okay, Bo Nix aside…)

Well, we aren’t Kirby Smart, who’s taken an almost obsessive concern about complacency to new heights.

On a 355-acre tract of land outside of Greenville, South Carolina, the Georgia Bulldogs found themselves. Well, not all of them.

The idea of an annual two-day leadership retreat at Mill Pine included a core group of about 30 players. The concept was developed 2 ½ years ago, springing from the minds of Georgia sports psychologist Drew Brannon and coach Kirby Smart.

Mill Pine isn’t a resort, hotel or getaway. It advertises itself as a place where people participate in “personal and professional development sessions” so they can “reengage with their purpose.”

Basically, the opposite of your basic wall-to-wall football Saturday at Sanford Stadium.

… All Blacks, New Zealand’s national rugby team, is considered one of the most successful teams in history having won three World Cups while dominating international competition. Their 77% lifetime winning mark claims to be the highest of any professional sports team in the world.

Their approach in the tiny South Pacific country of 5 million is based on humility: better people make better All Blacks.

Smart became hooked on their inspirational phrases. “Sweeping the sheds” means leaving something better than you found it. Every Dawg at the SEC Media Days mentioned the mantra, “Better never rests.”

And what has become the Georgia staple for keeping that humility? “Eat off the floor.”

That graphic enough for you?

All of it has integrated from the Southern Hemisphere to Mill Pine to the Georgia locker room. Brannon and Smart had the idea to mesh the philosophy of an international rugby power into the minds of some damn, fine Dawgs. It started in January 2021, a few weeks after the Peach Bowl win over Cincinnati following the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. That came a few months before the program embarked on a journey to back-to-back national titles.

“I think they drilled that into our minds into the offseason,” All-America tight end Brock Bowers said.

More than drilled. The All Blacks’ selfless dedication was reflected in a series of offseason “skull sessions” that had a weekly theme at Georgia. Is there a direct connection from Mill Pine to the All Blacks to football Saturdays? Let’s just say the approach hasn’t hurt.

No, it doesn’t start with offseason sessions in South Carolina.  It begins a whole lot earlier.

In an era when the transfer portal is the great equalizer, Georgia has become the ultimate development program. Six of the 11 defensive players on the preseason All-SEC first team were Dawgs…

“The threat for us is complacency,” Smart said at last month’s SEC Media Days. “The first thing you have to do is acknowledge that it’s a threat. It’s the first step toward stomping it out.

“So, we look for two things when we look for people to join our organization. I’m not talking about players. I’m talking about anybody in our organization. Do they love football, and do they embrace being part of something bigger than themselves? Are they selfless?”

This team really is built differently.