The only team that could beat Georgia was Georgia and Georgia just did.
Daily Archives: December 2, 2023
Your 2023 SECCG game day post
Back again. Georgia and Alabama have won the last three national titles. One or the other (or both) have played in every SEC Championship Game since 2014. That’s a remarkably consistent run.
Even if you want to say that neither team is quite as fearsome as some of their recent counterparts, nobody is denying they both belong on the MBS field this afternoon. They are the conference’s two best teams.
It’s no exaggeration, then, to state that Alabama is the most formidable opponent the Dawgs have faced this season. The Tide can match Georgia’s talent, unlike almost no other team in the country can. Their coach is the GOAT. They know how to win in Atlanta.
But you can flip that right around. Georgia is the most formidable opponent Alabama has taken on. (Sorry, Texas.) They are the rare team that can match Alabama’s talent. And while Kirby isn’t the GOAT, he boasts the best coaching resume in the country over the past three seasons, as his team is on a 29-0 run.
So, a heavyweight match in every sense of the word. Especially so when you consider how resilient both teams have proven to be this season.
My analysis starts with the same mantra I’ve lived with all season. If Georgia shows up and brings its “A” game, there isn’t a team in the country that can stay with them for 60 minutes, and that includes Alabama. Another way of putting that is I believe Georgia’s ceiling is higher than Alabama’s; if both bring a similar level of effort and execution, that favors Georgia. In other words, ‘Bama is going to have to work to bring the Dawgs down to a level that makes them beatable. As Bill Connelly ($$) puts it.
On paper, Georgia’s defensive advantages are bigger than Bama’s. One way or another — via big plays against a great secondary or stops on passing downs against an awesome offense — the Tide are going to have to beat Georgia in a way no one else has been able to do in two years. They’re capable. But this is an awfully hard task.
Formidable, but not impossible. Matt Hinton makes much the same point.
When the Dawgs go for the jugular, they look like what their reputation, their record, and their ranking says they are: The best team in the country. If this particular version of Alabama is capable of proving otherwise, it will have to show the rest of the world a side we have yet to see.
What can Georgia do to foil that? I thought about that for a while and I think it comes down to whether the Dawgs can put at least 30 points on the scoreboard. This season, Alabama has only allowed one team to score more than 30 points — you guessed it, Texas. And while Georgia’s defense hasn’t been quite as stingy as it’s been in years past, it’s only given up as much as 23 points one time all season. (Hinton notes that Alabama’s offense fell short of 30 points in 6 of 9 games vs. Power 5 opponents. They’re not a Metchie-Williams juggernaut.)
Can Georgia score more than 30? Well, that depends on whether we get better effort from them than we saw in the South Carolina and Auburn games, the two times the offense has been held under that threshhold. I’d like to think, given the stakes, that won’t be a problem today.
Are there things Saban’s team is capable of that make me nervous? You betcha. Missouri showed the template to befuddle the Dawgs’ defense: outside runs, quarterback scrambles and deep shots. Mizzou didn’t have the talent to keep up and neither has any other team that used that blueprint against Georgia since. Alabama, on the other hand, does.
I said the other day that Jalen Milroe is a true homerun hitter. He’s going to have his moments in the game. But he’s a hit or miss kind of player and I’m not sure ‘Bama can afford too many misses, given Georgia’s offensive consistency. This Alabama team doesn’t strike me as the kind of team that can win a grinder against an opponent of similar quality. They simply aren’t built that way. (To that point, this is another week where Georgia enjoys an edge in third down conversions on both sides of the ball.) And this may be a small aside, but Milton’s return to health makes it even tougher for Alabama to try to win a grinder.
The other thing I’m nervous about is turnover margin. Right now, Alabama is +7. Georgia is flat zero. As I pointed out, Milroe’s done a good job of late avoiding interceptions and the Dawgs haven’t done a whole lot lately making them. Giving ‘Bama an extra possession or two could have a disastrous effect.
That said, one thing in the back of my mind countering my turnover concern is yards per play differential. In conference play, Georgia’s net ypp is nearly a yard higher than Alabama’s. Over the course of a game, that could be significant.
None of this is to say Alabama doesn’t have its own set of concerns. They haven’t faced an offense as diverse as Georgia’s. The Tide’s starting corners are superb in pass coverage, their safeties and linebackers less so. Bobo is going to stress that coverage by throwing more receiving options at the ‘Bama defense than they’re used to covering. (I am presuming that all four offensive starters who didn’t play against Georgia Tech will be out there today, Smart’s coyness notwithstanding.)
Can they hold up? If their talented edge rushers are able to pressure Beck, maybe. But that likely requires that Georgia’s offensive line doesn’t protect as well as it has almost the entire season and that Beck succumbs to the pressure. I need to see that before I’ll believe it.
In the end, I’m having a hard time seeing where Alabama is able to do enough to throw Georgia off track. The spread has tightened to four and the over/under has dropped a point to 54.5. That looks a little tight to me. Let’s say a final score of Georgia 31 Alabama 24.
As always, have at it in the comments.
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football
Your 12/2 (ND) game day post
There are, of course, other games today besides the SECCG. Here they are:
The three biggies:
- Oklahoma State vs. Texas. I read somewhere that OSU has been the luckiest team in the country this season. They’ll need every bit of luck to stand a chance against a motivated Texas bunch.
- Michigan vs. Iowa. This is going to be one boring mother of a game, methinks.
- Louisville vs. FSU. Can the ‘Noles hang on for one more win without their starting quarterback?
What are you going to be watching?
By the way, speaking of the ACCCG, this is a strange take.
First off, I’d be surprised if the committee left an undefeated P5 conference champ out of the field, starting QB or no starting QB, but even if they did, what precedent? They’re going to a 12-team format next season and FSU would be a mortal lock for that if it were in place this season. All they would be arguing about would be seeding. The rules have changed; watered down is in.
I guess that’s why Fiutak wound up taking that tweet down.
Filed under College Football
Over/Under
If you’re expecting a low scoring battle today, you may want to think about that.
The ‘over’ is on a 7-0-1 run for Alabama to improve to 9-2-1 overall. The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Crimson Tide in its games that have had totals in the 50s. Saban’s squad had combined scores of 76, 70, 70 and 54 points before last week’s 51 combined points vs. Auburn that would not have been enough points to get ‘over’ Saturday’s 53 to 54.5-point total.
Alabama is 18th in the nation in scoring with its 35.8 points-per-game average, while Georgia is ranked eighth with its 39.6 PPG average. The Bulldogs are sixth nationally in total yards and eighth in passing yards.
The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-3 clip for UGA in its last nine games despite a 3-1 run for the ‘under’ in its last four contests. But remember, Bowers didn’t play in a 30-21 home win over Missouri and a 31-23 win at Ga. Tech (both contests went ‘under’). Furthermore, McConkey didn’t play against the Yellow Jackets or the lopsided victory at Tennessee (another ‘under’).
The ‘over’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals. In the last three SEC Championship Game showdowns between these programs, we’ve had combined scores of 65, 63 and 60 points.
The over currently sits at 55.5.
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas
No backing in this time
There are folks out there (you can guess from which team’s camp) who think this year’s SECCG mirrors the ’21 meeting between the two programs? Apparently so.
A one-loss Alabama limped to Atlanta with a shockingly close win against an average Auburn team only to face an unbeaten and barely-tested Georgia.
Just a mirror image two years late
And Alabama’s subsequent 41-24 win is floating a few boats west of Athens this week. This is a Crimson Tide team on a non-linear yet entertaining return from the September dead who needed to catch every break while showing as much in-season improvement as any Nick Saban team.
After slalom skiing that minefield, they’ve arrived at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
I’m not a ‘Bama homer, of course, but that’s a really superficial take. Different teams, and, more importantly, different stakes.
But here’s the thing and it’s hard to overstate.
That 2021 game was a knockout game for Alabama and Alabama only. As the only unbeaten Power 5 team, the top-ranked Bulldogs could afford a loss in the SEC title game. Both teams played to their situation and the outcome spoke to it. Georgia didn’t exactly show the same aggressive defense it used to claim revenge a month later in the CFP championship when the throttle was fully engaged.
This time’s different.
Uga doesn’t necessarily have room to soil the plastic turf Saturday evening.
Kirby Smart doesn’t have the luxury of soft-launching a postseason plan in the semifinal with Michigan, Oregon-Washington, Florida State and Texas making their case this weekend. Michigan, FSU and the Longhorns won’t face near the test on the final so expect to see a different level of urgency this time around.
I think that’s spot on. Barring some truly wild developments between now and 4PM, it’s safe to say that Georgia’s path to the CFP is pretty much nonexistent if the Dawgs go down in the SECCG. That definitely wasn’t the case in 2021. And even if you don’t think today’s stakes should be stated so starkly, you have to admit it’s looking to be a much tighter path than two seasons ago. If you’re Kirby Smart, is that a chance you want to risk?
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football
Down for the count
Man, talk about somebody who deserved better…
He was having a pretty good season this year, too. Ah, well.
He’ll probably make a good coach, to boot.
Filed under The Body Is A Temple
Can a network have a hype video?
If so, CBS nailed it with this bad boy. I’ve already watched it several times.
You can’t say Georgia got shortchanged there, either. Well done, folks.
Lundquist, who retired from the SEC broadcast in 2016, remains a loyal viewer every fall afternoon.
“First of all, I love the SEC,” Lundquist said in a recent interview with AL.com “It’s the greatest assignment I was ever given in my life.”
He won’t be watching Saturday, Lundquist said, because he was invited to attend the final SEC on CBS broadcast in Atlanta.
“I can’t wait,” Lundquist said.
Guys, five minutes in the booth with Gary is all I ask. For old times sake, okay?
Filed under SEC Football
This week’s hype video is all about the love.
State of mind, baby.
Surely you don’t need anyone reminding you today, of all days, to get in gear, right? GATA, Dawgs!
Filed under Georgia Football
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