Per Bill Connelly, advanced stats suggest the typical coach sees a big bump up in S&P+ ratings in his second year. (Yay!)
Unfortunately, things flatline from there.
No matter how good you’ve been, you’re likely to improve in your coach’s second year. But outside of that second-year window, your fortunes depend as much on recent fortune as tenure. To some degree, everybody regresses or progresses toward the mean.
Now, this is an overly gloomy assessment in any individual coach’s case, of course. (Not to mention Bill hedges on whether the data is statistically significant.) But it’s probably worth keeping in mind that a positive move in Georgia’s fortunes next season wouldn’t be a shock.