Getting to 40-17, getting from 40-17

Matt Hinton’s SECCG preview is definitely worth a read, but look at these two charts he’s compiled and answer a question for me.

My question is this:  based on those charts, do you see a 23-point differential between the two teams?

Matt doesn’t.  He’s predicting Auburn by two.  As far as the rest of his predictions go, I’ll say one thing.  If Jake Fromm has to throw the ball thirty times today, Georgia is toast.

40 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

40 responses to “Getting to 40-17, getting from 40-17

  1. Scorpio Jones, III

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
    Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

    If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
    If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
    And treat those two impostors just the same;
    If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
    Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

    If you can make one heap of all your winnings
    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
    And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;
    If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
    To serve your turn long after they are gone,
    And so hold on when there is nothing in you
    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

    If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
    If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
    If all men count with you, but none too much;
    If you can fill the unforgiving minute
    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
    Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

    And, which is more, Champlons of the SEC.

    GATA Bluto, for all us little guys huddled around our radios, you are our touchstone, our man on the scene, don’t think, don’t analyze, just holler and GATA. If you have not screamed yourself hoarse by the end, we will be very disappointed.

    Like

    • Hillbilly Dawg

      Wow. I read that and got some stuff in my eyes. It was apropos to the day; life and games.
      I do love quality. I need the title and author please.

      Like

      • Hillbilly Dawg

        Kipling! Read parts of this many years ago in 1102. Thank you for resurrecting this warm memory!

        Like

      • Graham Floyd

        Kipling

        Like

      • BCDawg97

        If by Rudyard Kipling

        Like

        • Hillbilly Dawg

          I had never read “If” in its entirety. I’ve been deprived. I had “Oedipus Rex” and “Ulysses” as well as selected Frost works as staples. Sadly, as I vaguely recall, I only got a few snippets of “If.”

          Like

          • Scorpio Jones, III

            Kipling? that’s the guy who played cornerback at Ole Miss in the 50’s, right?

            If you can fill the unforgiving minute
            With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
            Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
            And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

            Like

            • stuckinred

              This Kipling who fought to have his near blind son commissioned in the 2nd Battalion, Irish Guards only to disappear in the Battle of Loos in WW1:


              “Have you news of my boy Jack?”
              Not this tide.
              “When d’you think that he’ll come back?”
              Not with this wind blowing, and this tide.

              “Has any one else had word of him?”
              Not this tide.
              For what is sunk will hardly swim,
              Not with this wind blowing, and this tide.

              “Oh, dear, what comfort can I find?”
              None this tide,
              Nor any tide,
              Except he did not shame his kind —
              Not even with that wind blowing, and that tide.

              Then hold your head up all the more,
              This tide,
              And every tide;
              Because he was the son you bore,
              And gave to that wind blowing and that tide!

              Like

    • Got Cowdog

      Hell yeah. Perfect

      Like

  2. Scorpio Jones, III

    For them what gets it….

    Like

  3. AusDawg85

    I do see a 23 point spread…for UGA. Look, if we win, we’ll win the way we have all year. We Run The Damn Ball. Jake will have just 15 passes, just enough to move the chains and loosen up the middle. They’ll come early in the game. Our RB’s take over in the 3rd, wearing down the Auburn D. Trigga will get trucked. This has to be the pattern or we don’t win. I won’t lament Chubb diving off guard on first down if it gets 3 yards. And there’s a push. A lean. No penetration by the AU D line. Wear them down. Fromm will HAVE to be both quick and accurate in the first half. We did this on the opening drive the first time. Just do it again. Rinse and repeat. We can do this. We can. We must.

    F*ck Auburn. And I like trucks. Go Dawgs!

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Muttley

    The problem with charts like that is always the same, in my opinion: they measure teams across an evolution, and with Auburn in particular, the September Tigers never seem to resemble the November ones, for better or for worse. Throw out any numbers that came from the Clemson (11 sacks!!) or LSU losses. Look for them only in media guides; they are a team gone with the wind.

    Like

    • Muttley

      …which is not to say they’re unbeatable- far from it. Just that those numbers won’t really tell us much this afternoon.

      Like

  5. Greg

    Then you read something like this:

    Georgia: “A weird thing happened the last time these teams met: Fromm came out on fire, completing three straight passes as the Bulldogs marched down the field for the game’s first touchdown, and then they went away from him almost entirely. Fromm didn’t attempt a pass on first or second down on three of their next four drives, and by that point Auburn was in control. So don’t be surprised if that changes and Georgia looks to throw to open up the running game, not vice versa”>

    Not saying 30 times, but we certainly need to pass more imo……..roll him out, bootleg him…get him away from the pressure. Mix it up (playcalling).

    http://www.espn.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/130893/sec-championship-game-primer-georgia-vs-auburn-part-ii

    Like

    • gastr1

      I agree. I don’t think he’s very accurate on the run at this point, but a rollout or three seems like it might be useful.

      Like

  6. W Cobb Dawg

    I think the neutral field is as big a factor as several of those stats. And since we had advance time to purchase tickets on the open market, I’m hoping the crowd is heavily tilted toward the Dawgs.

    And though I’m sure our players would love revenge, I’m pretty sure Kirby wants to smack that smirk off malzahn’s face even more.

    Finally, I attribute most of awbie’s success 3 weeks ago to what was by far our worst performance of the season. I think we’re too good a team from top to bottom for that to happen again today.

    Like

  7. No one has posted it today.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Biggen

    If UGA can rush for at least 150, I like our chances. That means they should also be able to throw to close to that as well.

    I dont think Cheney commits to Chubb up the middle every 1st down like last time though. Hopefully he learned some new tricks this go around.

    Like

  9. PTC DAWG

    Too many numbers…Dawgs roll..

    Like

  10. Scorpio Jones, III

    I could be fulla shit, often am, but I think this may be the best coaching staff Georgia has had since the dark ages…if it comes down to coaching, we got a shot.

    Like

  11. ViewsfromtheSouth

    Georgia might lose again but I think the previous game was more about “if Georgia sports is going to go wrong, it’s going to be embarrassing”, then the difference being wide.

    The biggest thing that might irritate me is if a 2016 Ole Miss/this game attitude prevails of “Let’s be more protective and not worry about the results” game.

    It’d be the ultimate troll though if it turns out that the previous game was a thrown game but I doubt it. I think it was again, my first sentence.

    Like

  12. Russ

    Auburn had 2 losses and another weak win, while we’ve been consistently good throughout the season. That skews the stats a little. Over the last month, they’ve been on fire. At least, that’s my Mr. College Football hot take.

    Like

  13. Skeptic Dawg

    The problem for Georgia is twofold…1). Our OL can not matchup with Auburn’s DL and 2). Our DL can not matchup with their OL. That is all that matters in the game of football. Win the trenches and you will win the game. We lose and we lose hard today. This team has been a pure joy to follow this Fall and I am damn proud of them. Losing today will in no way take away anything this program has accomplished. We are 1 year ahead of schedule. The future is bright fellas! GATA!

    Like

  14. Macallanlover

    I think it will a low scoring, defensive battle with both offenses being limited. Unless turnovers/STs score lead to above average scoring, I doubt either team reaches 27. FGs will play a significant role, so that is an edge to AU because that guy is the best there is. But I think the revenge motivation and neutral field lets the better team prevail, Dawgs win.

    UGA 23 AU 16

    Like

    • Greg

      Thinking we also hold’em to under 20. I believe we hold the edges much better this game…to me, that is why we lost the last game. Playing GT the way we did has put us back in good habits (containing/playing at home). I feel as though we mix it up on offense (situational playcalling) much better. I like your score, but thinks we put 30 + on them….DGAS really, just win.

      Like

      • Macallanlover

        We may, but the first obstacle is my lack of confidence in Chaney to out think anyone. Second obstacle is Kirby letting him try anything but the safest way, even if he knew how to out think them. And lastly, there is that defensive front that is just nasty. I think we will need some turnovers or a return to get to upper 20s but would love to be wrong. I do think we get a super effort from Michel Chubb, which isn’t unusal but they may take it up a notch today. But in this game, I am thinking Swift, Mecole, and Fromm have to carry the heavier load to help open some running lanes.

        Like

        • Greg

          I hear ya…and you may very well be right. But boy, that 1st series of calls and execution was beautiful (1st game). Makes you wonder…we’ll see soon enough.

          Like

  15. I think KS and JC have to open it up and Fromm has to throw it 30+ times.

    Slants and screens and a jet sweep or 2 can get him to the needed 30+. Just do not think our OL can man handle the abuurn front 7 to get the running game going without the passing game opening up. Our D can handle their own but the game will be won or lost based on the passing game and our OL.

    Like

    • 92 grad

      You say that and it sounds right, problem is they only put 4 dudes on the D line and bust blocks or pressure Fromm. They don’t have to blitz to get sacks. They can play 1 linebacker and 5 or 6 DB to shut down both run and pass.

      Like

  16. Awbrun delenda est. And I really, REALLY want to see Matthews put to the turf a time or two.

    Like

  17. Greg

    WHEW!!!….guess you were right “Senator”. Glad Fromm did not throw it “30 times”.

    Like

  18. Will Trane

    Glad their Hollywood QB signed up last year to play in a game like this for Auburn.
    He got to play okay, but he got his ass beat!!!
    The boy will have dreams about a Dawg player with the number 3 on his jersey. Smith in my view was MVP.
    What a game by him!!!
    Matt Hinton is one dumb ass son of a bitch.
    Who cares what he says. It is all bird shit!!!

    Like