So, if D-1 college football is morphing into two super conferences, the Big Ten and the Southeastern Conference, that will likely expand significantly beyond their current numbers, where does the latter go from here?
If you’re Greg Sankey, that’s not an easy question to answer. There aren’t any obvious major media markets to gobble up, as the Big Ten just did. At least not as long as the ACC exists. On paper, that’s for a while.
Now, I don’t doubt there are some clever minds out there sharpening their pencils in an effort to find the means to scuttle that, but I’m not certain that would help the SEC much, either. Sure, Clemson and FSU would likely clamor to join, but neither brings much to the table in terms of media rights. Sankey’s problem there would be that even if they don’t, he might not have much choice but to invite them to join, strictly as a defensive measure, because even if they don’t move the needle much for him, they would make for an enormous beachhead for the Big Ten to establish in this part of the country if they went there.
So, assume for now, the ACC fends off disaster, probably with some help from Mickey. In that scenario, where does Sankey go to meet future expansion needs? I don’t think that’s a question arising from the silly dick measuring contests we’ve seen between the two conferences over the better part of the last two decades, but instead one recognizing where the balance of power in the sport is headed. No obvious choices jump out at me now, although I recognize the situation is fluid.
What do y’all see?
Get The Picture 
There are four teams left that carry weight FSU, UM, Clemson, and ND. I’d say both ND and UM are impressive tv markets.
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I just don’t see ND and the SEC as a mutual fit.
Miami? Eh, maybe.
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Miami and their lack of fans does nothing for me.
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Not to mention a lack of an on-campus stadium.
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UNC and Va Tech would round out the geographic stamp and bring pretty sizable tv markets with them.
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I think more likely UNC and UVA join big 10. When Duke joins whatever cross-country Basketball super conference that gets created out of the cratering holes that were once the ACC, Pac 12 and Big 10 – the Nationalization of college sports will be nearly complete. Nothing like seeing natural rivals Duke, Kansas, Baylor and Arizona play each other twice a year while UNC/Duke gets relegated to a meaningless non-conference game.
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Joe, I would tend agree with you, but Duke/UNC is a package deal just as UVA/VT is a combo deal. I am not sure how things shake out in the ACC, but I am willing to bet that basketball plays a massive role in where Duke, UNC, and UVA end up. The ACC still has a very strong hoops presence. I would not be overly shocked to see Vandy jump ship and join the ACC…that is a prefect fit for both.
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I don’t see Vandy agreeing to less money.
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It wouldn’t surprise me for Vandy to jump ship to the B1G though if they came knocking. Better money (for now) and a much higher academic profiled conference of nearly all AAU schools.
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Are UVA and VaTech linked ? I seem to recall UVA snobbery keeping them out of the ACC for a long time. UVA does not view them as a peer institution academically.
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He goes and gets Notre Dame. Beyond that, I am no sure what he does. Clemson was irrelevant for 25 years prior to 2015. They could easily fall back. The other move is to offer Ohio St, who probably wouldn’t accept because their path in the Big 10 is all but guaranteed in an all at large 8 team play off. As a side note Senator, I know you hate playoff expansion. I don’t. I want to know we are in every year. Yesterday means automatic bids are dead, which is great for top echelon SEC teams.
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I don’t see the SEC doing anything unless ND calls. I don’t think the SEC has to be 20 teams to be a super conference. Even if the big 10 added fSU and Clemson, which I’m not sure they would, I don’t think it would change much. At this point the Theo big conferences don’t need to expand. Get their new media rights and then build a playoff that locks in most spots for those two conferences, and therefore most of the money, and move on. Just like the schools have liked having the NCAA as a front, the SEC and Big 10 would like us all to think nothing has changed, we’re just regular old conferences, treat us like everyone else. Unless you’re a tv provider or a playoff system, then they flex.
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The Big Ten will not add a non-AAU school. That means Virginia and North Carolina are on the table, FSU and Clemson wouldn’t even be considered.
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Yeah. Unless the B1G goes back on its statement to not add schools that aren’t AAU schools, there is a better chance of the B1G raiding the ACC for Georgia Tech to have an Atlanta school and raiding the SEC for Vanderbilt to have a presence in Tennessee than asking FSU or Clemson to join the B1G.
Without going further west and if the AAU requirement isn’t abandoned, the B1G’s only options for adding schools from the SEC are Vanderbilt, Florida, A&M and Missouri. And in the ACC the only options for AAU schools are Tech, UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Pitt.
What will be interesting is if the B1G further raids its Alliance partner the Pac-12 and takes Oregon and Washington (and/or Stanford and/or Colorado) since they are AAU schools also and would fit right in if USC and UCLA do make the jump to the B1G to give more west coast friendly scheduling.
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Can we give the ACC South Carolina back while this is all happening?
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Leaving all the legalease aside……
Does Sankey go all in on the “it just means more” and keep the SEC regional by adding NC and VA schools, leaving ND to the stupid B1G that has CA schools in its ranks? Or, does he fight for ND chasing the added value to the conference, footprint be damned.
I agree that the net value add of MIA/FSU/UNC/VT isn’t all that much to get excited about. Clemson wouldn’t move the needle at all and they would be chewed up and spit out as a title contender if they came to the SEC. ND would be the only real value add.
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Don’t the other ACC teams have the same problem as Notre Dame? They too are subject to the same grant of rights deal. Sure, anything could be bought out but it would be a pretty steep price.
I really am not wild about the prospect of the Soon Everyone Conference and the Big 24.
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All of this movement is a result of the conferences trying to sell their media rights on their own. As I mentioned a year (?) ago on one of the threads about Texas and Oklahoma, this madness will not end until the conferences sell their media rights jointly and collectively (and at that point, the conferences become about as relevant as the NFC, AFC, NL or AL).
We now have two 16-team conferences, a 15* team conference, and 2 conferences that have atrophied. So we are pretty close to four 16-team “super” conferences that will suck pretty much all the air out of the room and, if they sell their media rights collectively, will all make a lot more than they are making individually now….
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Will media markets even matter if/when the streaming services jump into the pool? I feel like that’s an overated aspect of these decisions. Yes, TV is the driver, but it seems to me that the TV/streaming folks should be more concerned with how strong those media markets are in regard to college football and not generally. Actually, I expect that the TV guys think that way, but commisioners think that Rutgers and Maryland “capture the New York and D.C./Baltimore media markets”.
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Streaming is going to control it all within 5 years. Sorta like HBO took over boxing. HBO made a ton of money, the fighters make a ton, and 99% of the viewing public can’t pick the heavyweight champ out of a lineup. I guess that’s progress for Disney and the rights sellers. For the rest of us, not do much.
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Exactly. Even though Clemson and FSU are already securely within SEC geography, they still bring a lot to the table as brands with interested viewers who will pony up for streaming. Rutgers and Maryland do not.
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Maybe the SEC and ACC could strike up some kind of scheduling alliance. Better overall content would have value, right?
Man, those long term rights deals that sounded good are a millstone around the acc’s neck now. It’s Mets/Bobby Bonilla bad. Bobby has 13 more years of getting a July 1 check for 1.1 million. Stellar job, Mets!
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That’s not a bad idea. An ACC-SEC match-up, guaranteed, and sell the rights together. You’ve already got four rivalry games on the schedule (so we still have OOC scheduling freedom). That throws some extra money to the ACC to keep them together. And the Irish get a sixth guaranteed game vs a big name opponent.
The only question is what to do with Texhoma?
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Let the Big 10 have them. We can play them in bowls or the CFP, if they can get there.
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The sec isn’t making any deals with the ACC. There’s no reason to.
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Not in this environment – I was thinking more in a world where we want to have CFB retain some of its appeal. You know? Make believe world.
I’m quite aware that the SEC isn’t going to do anything to help anything but itself.
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I agree with the Senator that ND is a better fit with the Big10 and, assuming the ACC schools are off limits until 2036, our options are limited in the short term. I think standing pat makes a lot of sense. However, if we were to look to expand I’d look at the remnants of the Big12 and Pac12. Arizona/Arizona State bring the Phoenix-Tucson TV market, but may not fit our football style. Oregon is much more like an SEC school style, but relatively small (Portland) TV market. Perhaps Washington and Oklahoma State.
I think in the future being able to field competitive teams that will consistently be in the CFP mix becomes more important than TV markets as a greater share of the dollars will come from an expanded 12 or 16 team (sorry Senator) CFP and the conference championship game. National schools with a hardcore fan base like UGA have alumni/viewers across the country who will watch them play regardless of the TV market.
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It is basically about espn & fox.
Espn withe the sec & fox with the big10.
I believe it is espn for the acc media rights.
Espn could promote a sec & acc merger with some teams left out, ie Vanderbilt, Syracuse.
It is about the money 💰
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Without understanding the ins and outs of the media rights contracts, I would call in this order – North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, Clemson, and Florida State. First 3 to call back ready to join get the bids. Because Swarbrick and Sankey appear to be pretty tight, I might ask ND if they are interested for the 4th slot to get to 20. If not, the 4th to call back gets the bid. My next calls are probably to West Virginia and the Arizona schools (or I decide to stand pat at 16).
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Any conference that adds Notre Dame is going to have another Texas on its hands—to wit, a nationally recognized brand that’s always rubbing its conference-mates the wrong way by looking for separate deals and special treatment. Not that that’s going to stop the ACC, particularly if they start feeling desperate.
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In a universe where streaming services have taken over college football, i.e. the moment these TV rights deals expire, would Notre Dame even need to be in a conference? It seems to me as though they’d be in a very similar position to where they were when they made their NBC deal.
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I agree that streaming changes the TV landscape, but I think the super conferences will control the scheduling and more importantly govern the rules regarding access to the new CFP,.
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North Carolina is the best play from the ACC. Great brand, just does not play football like Clemson and still regional.
I would go with North Carolina, Clemson, Miami, and ???
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FSU or Virginia Tech
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If you expand to 20 take Virginia tech, Clemson, Florida state, and Georgia Tech
If you go to 24 then add in Duke, UNC, Miami, and West Virginia
Either way you think SEC will have to offer Georgia tech cause if you don’t, you end up allowing big ten to come in and pull Atlanta recruits. Same with Miami and Florida State.
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Respectfully. Do not concur with your logic regarding Tech. They have done nothing in over a decade to deserve to be in. Atlanta is going to be recruited by everybody anyway. Tech is a non-factor in this equation.
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Completely agree. It’s not like the big 10 can’t just schedule some games in Atlanta if they really want to. Tech brings zero to the table.
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This Georgia visibility for recruiting thing has never held water. Everyone recruits the state, and they don’t need to admit Fech to do it.
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Fech is probably heading to the Sun Belt or the Southern Conference if the ACC blows up. They add nothing to the SEC or Big 10.
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Or the American.
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I think the SEC and Big10 stay at 16 for a few years and see what happens with the playoffs.
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I don’t think those two will just passively sit back and see how the playoff turns out. I think they’ll own that discussion and dictate the terms of the playoffs, because between them they have all the leverage.
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Vote Vandy off the island at next tribal session
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No way the original league members kick out a fellow charter member. That isn’t the way higher education works plus they are pretty good at some non-football sports.
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The “higher education” train has left the station I’m afraid. This is all about viewership and money. And 90% football
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I can understand that, but there hasn’t been a school kicked out of a conference. The optics of taking the best academic school out of the league would be really bad.
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Would be the same if the Big 10 did something similar with Northwestern
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I’ve got Temple on line three. Also UConn is holding.
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Didn’t their conference disintegrate for football?
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And they are committing $300MM in new/upgraded facilities.
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I don’t think Greg has to go knocking on any doors right now. I imagine he’s getting plenty of calls from places that desperately want a piece of our coming TV deal.
And hate to say it, but the gnats would balance Vandy and with SEC money and leadership at the very top could be relevant in some key sports. Miami is the better business choice but Clemson is more logical. ND does not fit in any scenario short of intervention by the Pope himself.
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I don’t think the charter schools give Fech the time of day. Bad blood runs deep.
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Lol. Voice over phone speaker: “Greg, I’ve got some thick accented guy on line two who says his name is Francis and he wants to talk to you about conference realignment.”
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It honestly depends on the Big-12.
I expect the ACC to push ND harder than they’ve ever been pushed before. If they can somehow convince the Irish, then their next move is to take WVU from the Big-12, as it just makes too much sense. That takes them to 16.
I then expect an 11-team Big-12 to take Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah from the Pac-12 and become their own 16 team league, with the rest of the Pac-12 either dissolving or fading away.
And then I expect this madness to stop, because at 16 teams you are still a conference. Four 16-team conferences can work, especially with scheduling with a 9-game schedule.
The minute any of them take on one extra team more than 16, they’re not longer a conference; they’re a league. God help us if that happens.
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ND only joins a conference for football as a true last resort. They still have their home game network, their guaranteed 5 ACC games, and every game is on a network.
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I think we’ll settle (at least for a while) with four 16-team super conferences, with the SEC and B1G being the alphas and the ACC and Big 12/Pac 12 conglomerate being the betas.
If they somehow finagle around the ACC GoR, then I could see the B1G and SEC agreeing to form a new division of football (or leave the NCAA altogether) with each expanding to 24 teams, only playing each other, and selling an NFL-Lite product to a national audience while the remnants of the ACC become the Big East, and the remnants of the Big 12/Pac 12 play FCS level ball.
I’m not sure “markets” will matter as much as streaming eats into cable subscriptions. Trying to find new TV markets to sell cable transmission fees to will be replaced with trying to produce a compelling product. That changes the answer to the “Who does the SEC add?” question, but I don’t think we are there yet, which is why I think everything will settle to a status quo for a bit.
(I think the Big 12 is really, really done for (for real this time) as survival mode kicks in for the ACC and Pac 12. It won’t be about what adds value as much as what adds legitimacy to continue existence. Cincy and West Virginia are obvious ACC adds, maybe Kansas? to really lean into basketball plus begging Notre Dame. The Pac 12 would become a mountain conference and pick up BYU, Ok State and a few randos like Texas Tech, Iowa State and the like.)
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Mickey is only looking out for himself. This is what happens when a bunch of Harvard MBA’s get into the hen house. UGA is poised as well as anyone to remain on top, otherwise, all these mega conferences make me sick.
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You gents are staring into the abyss and looking at all the wrong tea leaves. Me and Uncle Got have already kicked this up to the tribal council. We’re stumping to add Hawaii and then chartering the annual Got Frozen Carnival Cruise Line…we’re working on the marketing tagline…but spitballing “World’s Longest Continuous Tailgate”. If absurdity is the new norm…aw hell, then take it away Don Ho…
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Acc should grab ND, Kansas, Stanford or Oregon right now before it’s too late.
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ND will either remain independent (if they can) or join the Big 10 – it is hands down, the most logical fit for them. But if they do, they’ll try and dictate terms and that is where it could get dicey. Lot’s of egos out there.
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It’s true that neither FSU nor Clemson would bring new TV markets into the fold, but both would still bring along lots of media rights money. They’re powerful brands. They don’t change the map in terms of households that might watch, but they certainly move the needle in terms of households on that map that actually do watch. The latter might matter more for ad revenue.
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I think before we expand the SEC, we need to do some housecleaning to improve the overall quality of our brand. We should rid ourselves of the schools that hold us back from attaining our proper status as being the number 1 football conference. I propose removing Florida and Auburn from the conference to enhance the academic and athletic standing of the SEC.
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Florida is a highly rated academic university, like it or not.
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Georgia and Florida are pretty much the same from an academic standpoint now.
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Not really. As much as I hate it, UF is now ranked as a top 5 public university tied with UNC and Cal-Santa Barbara and behind only Virginia, Michigan, Cal-Berkley, and UCLA. Georgia is 16th one spot ahead of Ohio State. Georgia Tech is 10th. And FSU is only a few spots behind Georgia in the top 20. Believe me, my son who is at UF with in-state tuition because he was flat denied at Georgia never misses an opportunity to point it out.
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ND tried to join the Big10 decades ago. I think many on both sides hold a grudge. ND dislikes the Big10 for the exclusion and the Big10 hates ND for the media contracts they managed to acquire.
If ND is pressured into joining a conference, they likely work something out with the ACC. The ACC is vulnerable to the Big10 and SEC. ND would shore up the ACC’s media revenue. ND may need to take a revenue cut in order to schedule at a P5 level.
The debate in the SEC is scheduling and the move to 9 is blocked by ESPN not paying more money. I don’t see the SEC searching for more when it will be more programs and the same pot.
It will be interesting to see if the PAC does move to raid the Big12. The Big12 and PAC have both lost the jewels in their crown.
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