Over at Statistically Speaking, Matt’s got his 2008 predictions up for the SEC. If you’re a Georgia fan, you won’t like it. (If you’re a Tennessee fan, you really won’t like it.)
Needless to say, I’m not in agreement with all of that. Nevertheless, what I like about Matt’s posts is that he always finds a few statistical points of interest. He doesn’t disappoint in that department here. Take for example these bits:
- In terms of yards allowed, Tennessee’s best defensive showing in the conference came against Georgia. The Vols held the Dawgs to just 243 yards of offense. What’s especially appalling about that stat is that the UT defense gave up over 500 yards in four conference games last season.
- Brandon Cox’s passer rating in the 29 games Auburn won when he started was 142.90. In the nine losses he started, his passer rating was 93.82.
- Mississippi returns its top 14 tacklers from last season.
- Georgia was the only SEC East team to allow fewer yards on defense last season than Vanderbilt.
Take a minute to give the whole thing a read.
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UPDATE: On a related front, even the SEC coaches are buying into the “improving Florida defense” meme. They just named three-quarters of the Florida defensive backfield preseason third team all-conference.
Resistance is futile.
Get The Picture 
Our offense was below average he says, but he has no problem with the Gator defense from last year. Suddenly it’s gonna turn into something special.
And despite the Gator’s not leaving the state, anyone is a fool who would look at their schedule and think they are gonna go undefeated in the SEC.
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Our offense was below average he says, but he has no problem with the Gator defense from last year. Suddenly it’s gonna turn into something special.
I agree. I thought his reasoning on the Gator D getting appreciably better, but Stafford not so, was inconsistent.
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What we know about Stafford is he did improve a great deal from season one to season two. Yes, his completion pct. is still down and not where it needs to be, but his TD/INT ratio would be joyfully accepted by anyone in the conference except for UF.
We also know Stafford improved his first year as the season went along.
The Gator defense didn’t improve at all, and in fact if you look at their last game you could argue they got worse. There big problem spot was safety which they have multiple injuries that will seem to have a major impact on their season. Yet, it doesn’t matter.
I said earlier that great offense almost always fools the media and pundits into thinking big things. But you win championships with defense. There is always gonna be a game where your offense, no matter how good it is, is not what it ought to be. And if your defense can’t step up in that game you are in trouble.
Last years UK game for us was such a case. Also look at 1992 vs. Auburn. Remember how great that offense was. Auburn was not very good that year and we ended up having to make a goal line stand with some help from the refs to win it.
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I’m not too outraged at these picks…I’m the yokel who thinks that Auburn can win the West. And although the “Florida’s defense will improve because, um, thingy!” line these people all take is some serious wishful thinking, the Gator schedule doesn’t include many wrecking balls.
I think they’ll lose to LSU and Georgia, though, as both LSU and Georgia are better teams than Florida. Especially Georgia, who doesn’t exactly have a cripplingly gaping hole on its team that it’s attempting to wish away.
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