From our selfish standpoints, the one big change in Bill’s picture is that he’s now showing Auburn with a 68% chance of winning in Athens. Missouri projects to having less than a nine percent chance of going 7-1, so the odds of Georgia playing in the SECCG are still strong.
The West still looks like it’s up for grabs, and will probably stay that way until the end of the regular season. Fun times for all…
Get The Picture 
I dont know. If we win the next 2 and get to the Auburn game, then I can see the team getting a huge boost from Gurley. Also, Pruitt has schemed against Gus once before, so it will not be his first time facing this offense.
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+1. Makes sense.
Though I would caution everybody that Gurley will have been out a long time, and he’ll be somewhat cold and rusty. If he keeps in game shape, and this time I think he will, he’ll still be Gurley. But that’s still an ‘if’.
Just think it’s a little much to expect Gurley to pick right up where he left off, when he hasn’t played a football game in a full month-and-a-half.
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No confidence in the fact that he’s been practicing with the team?
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Sure, that certainly helps everything concerning Gurley. But nevertheless there’s no sufficient substitute for game time itself.
If Gurley keeps in great condition physically and mentality, he’ll be fine. That’s what Richt has asked him to do. There’s zero concern about his heart, which is the key to his greatness anyway.
So if he follows Richt’s advice, and I think he will, he’ll overcome the missed playing time itself. There’s just nothing automatic about it.
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Agreed its not automatic, and there’s no 100% substitute for live action. However, I maintain there’s a continuum in play here:
No contact with the team (NFL PED suspensions) < can use facilities but not practice/play (Josh Gordon) < practicing but can't play (Gurley) << eligible. Sorry for citing NFL rules in an NCAA matter, but hopefully it makes some sense.
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It does, Paul. I agree. The situation is as good as gets, as the only thing lacking is the PT itself. All Gurley has to do is take full advantage of it.
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So, Auburn wins a close game at home over a bad team where they give up a ton of points to USCe… They do score a ton of points in that game, but USCe’s defense is just not good at all. And now they have the best chance to get to win in Athens? I just don’t get why they are everybody’s new favorite flavor…
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I’m confused at that too. They still have no pass rushers (good ones) in their front four, and Artis-Payne is no Tre Mason (especially behind above-average line blocking, instead of last year’s great blocking).
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Oh, and Auburn sucks.
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I agree with both your posts. We will beat Auburn.
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Here, here!
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Do you like driving in your truck, too? I love driving in mine.
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Our defense just keeps getting “butter”, Auburn’s not so much. Dawgs will win this one.
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Here’s a fitting scenario for the Auburn game: Auburn runs a kickoff back to take the lead 27-26 with only a minute left. But Penn Wagers calls Auburn for blocking below the waist. TD nullified. They fumble the ensuing kickoff, our defender catches it in the air and runs 45 yards for a TD. Gus Malzoom calls a timeout, but since he’s out of TOs, he draws a delay of game, argues forcefully, and is ejected by Wagers. We win 33-21.
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I’d rather Wagers not show up at all, and we become the first team to shut out the Barn since Gus got there, 42-0. Oh, and Auburn comes down with a “Pitt’s first quarter against the Trade School”-grade case of fumbles.
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I wish he would give some further explanation of why the big change in his numbers for the Auburn at Georgia game. Not that it really matters I just am curious as to what caused the swing. I like the swing actually. Would rather be a home “dawg” in that game than a favorite.
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This morning, I think Connelly’s about right with his odds on Auburn. Let’s see their Ole Miss game to get a better read.
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I do not think we beat Auburn … finish regular season 10-2 or 9-3. Lose the SECCG…. going 10-3 or 9-4. Worthy of Top 20 status.
SEC WEST is just freaky / insane good. Think Alabama will beat MSST and AUBURN. Ole MIss will lose another game – then hammer UGA in the SECCG. AL, AU, MS ST, OM and LSU would be beat UGA …. no cut on UGA as UGA would be top 2 or 3 in every conference …except SEC.
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If Bama beats Miss State and Auburn and Ole Miss loses another game, Bama would go to the SECC Game, not Ole Miss. Just fwiw.
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It’s yet another reason why I take the F+ analysis with a huge grain of salt. Fremau’s analysis is way too heavily weighted towards the quality of opponent and produces some really odd results that defy logic. Those mistakes often compound themselves in a classic garbage in garbage out manner. A week ago, our probability of beating Auburn went from 52 to 38% without us playing and Auburn beating SC in a manner that accentuated what we already know. They have a good to great offense and a mediocre to bad defense. I am not suggesting that he does not have perspective on what it means, but the manner in which it is presented (to the tenth of a percentage point) is laughable at best and at worst deceptive in its predictive value.
What all of the analytical approaches miss is being able to provide an adjustment factor that captures the ethos of a game and the range of performances that teams have in them. UT and Vandy were certain wins for UGA, and the games reflected it. Our team was precise enough and motivated enough to win the game. At no point were either games significantly at risk and that includes being down 10-0 to UT. Conversely, that game meant a lot more to UT than the Ole Miss game. Just as their effort against Bama did as well. Teams have a range of how they can perform on a weekly basis. For teams like Carolina, that range is pretty wide. Thus, assuming our loss to them was terrible is not the same as say Ohio state to va tech!
Ultimately, it does not matter what our win probability is for Auburn today for analytical purposes. It matters in two weeks when we play them. We will continue to learn about our defense and our QB that will inform us more. If MM26 returns to form, HM14 continues to gain confidence in himself, and our defense is not a mirage, we will beat Auburn by double digits.
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Very nice post.
In the truest sense, it doesn’t even matter then. Not to say your points aren’t valid. But what’ll really matter most is what we do that week, both coaches and players, assuming of course we have no further losses in personnel.
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What also isn’t contemplated in the Auburn projection is the fact that they will have played Ole Miss and Bama in their proceeding games. They could be pretty dang beat up at that point.
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No the barn plays bammer 2 wks after us…they have aTm before us..
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68%? Last year I would have given us a 0% chance of winning at their place but AU only won because of a miracle. Now he figures they have a 68% chance in Athens? Yeah don’t get that one.
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