Suddenly, everybody is all in on Auburn.

ESPN is in the throes of a serious schoolboy crush over the Tigers.  Here’s a link to a piece observing that Schlabach has them sitting fourth in his preseason rankings, while another writer has them upsetting Ohio State and playing for the national title for the second time in three seasons.  And Ed Aschoff has Auburn topping his SEC post-spring conference power rankings.

Maybe it’s nothin’ but the Dawg in me, but I’m not buying it.

My skepticism isn’t over the offense, at least not exactly.  Malzahn knows what he’s doing and I expect Auburn to do just fine on that side of the ball.  Sure, he’s breaking in a new quarterback, but Jeremy Johnson’s a talented thrower and after watching what Gus did with Chris Todd a few years ago, I don’t doubt that he’ll have Johnson playing well in 2015.

But here are my three doubts for Auburn this season:

  1. The neighborhood.  Auburn plays in college football’s toughest division.  Even if the rest of the schedule isn’t daunting – more on that in a second – that’s still six games to negotiate without a hiccup.  Add that Georgia is a tough draw almost every year, regardless of where the game is played, and that’s a tough row to hoe just to get to Atlanta.
  2. The quarterback.  It’s not that I don’t think Johnson will turn in a fine season.  It’s that he’s not the kind of quarterback who’s taken Malzahn’s offense to the promised land.  Unlike Cam or Marshall, he’s not going to beat you with his legs.  Maybe it’ll turn out that won’t matter, but I’ll have to see it first.
  3. The defensive coordinator.  This is from where most of the unbridled optimism over Auburn’s chances stems.  Defensive coordinator with good reputation who couldn’t cut it as a head coach, and so returns to the DC ranks to kick some ass… where have we heard that before?  Oh, yeah – that was the story about Boom’s predecessor, too.  Maybe Muschamp is an enormous step up from Ellis Johnson.  But I wonder if whatever improvement we see out of the Tigers defense this season will come more from getting a healthy Lawson back.  A good pass rush has the benefit of making a coordinator look smarter.

All of which isn’t to say Auburn won’t do well this season.  But as I look at this schedule, it doesn’t shout 11-1 at me.  And I’m not convinced a two-loss SEC team will be playing for a national title this year.

110 Comments

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110 responses to “Suddenly, everybody is all in on Auburn.

  1. JT (the other one)

    Something we forget too easily. When Boom was the AU DC before (06-07) we hung 37 and 45 on his defense. He beat us once at FU. So by my count that is 5 UGA victories vs. his 1…just sayin’…

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    • His Florida teams consistently handled UGAs offense. He went 1-3 against UGA because his offense was putrid. The one time his offense was better than average they routed UGA. At AUB all he has to do is prepare a defense, something he does consistently well.

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      • His Florida teams consistently handled UGAs offense.

        Except for that amazing first half of the 2013 game…

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        • If only the second half didn’t count.

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          • If only Artie Lynch didn’t have the biggest brain fart of his career…

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          • If Lynch doesn’t have a brain cramp and covers the ball (or catches it), that game becomes a rout. Boom can coach defense, but I’ll take our guy over him right now.

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          • Gurley twists ankle against LSU. First game back in 3 weeks and gassed after 1st quarter goes to locker room. In that second half Lynch misread a lateral and Florida scooped up the ball and scored two plays later. Murray is sacked for a safety and Florida scores on their possession. That pass play reminded me of the one one we threw out of our own end zone earlier in the season against the gamecocks. I think Murray hit Hicks. 12 men on the field during a 4th and 2, Gurley stopped short on a 4th and 1. It really was Georgia shooting itself in the foot not a great Florida D in the second half. On Georgia’s final drive the Offense did keep the ball for over 8 minutes to run out the clock. Which also reminded me of the game cock game earlier that season. I think one of CMR favorite Douglas moments happened during that series when he trucked two or 3 Gators on the way to a first down. ( which also reminded … never mind. 😉
            just sayin’

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      • Merk

        Well that awesome Auburn machine turned out a mighty 7 points last year.

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      • MGW

        Seriously, Auburn’s offense did its job last year. 7 points should be enough to win any game. Freakin’ Ellis Johnson. Boom would have pulled that one out, no doubt.

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      • PTC DAWG

        1-3 is 1-3. I don’t care about margins of victory.

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        • 81Dog

          only problem gamblers and actuaries care about margins of victory. I’m good with a W, no matter how slim or wide the margin is.

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      • JT (the other one)

        Except at AU…that is what he was tasked with doing in 06-07…and he didn’t.
        At FU well see below…

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    • He got two wins against us in 2003 with lsu.

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  2. RocketDawg

    I am with you on this and for the same reasons. When Auburn has been good over the last few years it has had a dynamic athlete at QB and a good if not great athlete at RB. I don’t see where they have either this year and Johnson is going to have a hard time finding windows to throw through if there is no threat of a QB run.

    The defense just doesn’t have much talent at the LB or Secondary positions and you can only do so much with a strong D Line. IF Lawson can come back 100% it gives them a strong pass rusher but one that can be double teamed due to the fact that no one else can get after the QB.

    They were an 8-4 team two years ago that got into the SECCG on two of the flukiest plays you will ever see.

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  3. Muschamp is arguably the best DC in football and has a fantastic track record. I don’t get your skepticism here. I hated it when AUB landed him because he’s been excellent everywhere he’s been from a defensive perspective. As you said, they’re about to get a legit first round talent back in Lawson, and if you turn him loose all of a sudden Adams (big NT/DT) is even better. That makes an average (or so) secondary look even better.

    Who knows what will happen in the West. ARK and Ole Miss are going to be stiff competition for AUB and Alabama, and LSU always has talent and they have a special back in Fournette. But if I were placing bets on which team would make it out of the West I’d side with Auburn as well.

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    • Is Boom that much better than Johnson?

      And I’m not saying that Auburn can’t win the West, just that I don’t think they’re built to come to Atlanta with only one loss on the books.

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      • Yes. He is that much better than Johnson. Look, I want AUB to lose every game it plays by 30, but they now have the best offensive coach in the conference and one of the best 3 DCs (I’d put him No. 1 personally). They are loaded in that regard, and it wasn’t as if AUB wasn’t recruiting well with Ellis. They’re going to be good, but what gives me hope is they’re going to be less reliant on the QB running attack, which is always tough to defend.

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        • Again, I’m not predicting a lousy season. I’m just having a hard time seeing how they’re better than, say, 10-2.

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          • Michael

            But 10-2 could be enough to make the playoff. I agree with Parrish on Muschamp’s merits as a DC. It would be one thing if he were being brought in and asked to succeed with mediocre talent (see: the unreasonable expectations for Dan Quinn with the Falcons), but Auburn has recruited well on defense in the past few years. That talent, plus Muschamp (who is indeed an upgrade over Ellis Johnson), ought to produce a good defense.

            As for the schedule, it’s a given that the SEC champion will be in the playoff, barring some sort of weird season that produces a champion like 2001 LSU. If Auburn wins the West, then they’ll likely be favored in the SEC title game (the team from the West has won every SECCG since Tebow’s junior season [2008] and most of the games have not been close) and if they win that, then they are almost certainly in the playoff.

            The one factor you mention that’s interesting is QB. Urban struggled in his last year at Florida because he made the mistake of turning the offense over to a statue. It seems possible that Malzahn would make the same mistake. Moreover, because Johnson is Black, lots of people will just assume that he’s mobile, but when I looked up his rushing stats, I saw that you have a point. He doesn’t seem like much of a runner.

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            • 11-2 could be enough, but it’ll take a few breaks. I know you hate to hear it, but Ohio State looks like a lock to me. So does TCU. I doubt either has more than one loss when the dust settles. Throw in the rest of the usual suspects, like Oregon, USC, Baylor, etc., and I think there will be at least four P5 teams outside the SEC that don’t have two regular season losses.

              That being said, if Malzahn finds that rabbit’s foot that sustained him through the 2013 season, look out, world.

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              • I think Pinkel might have stolen that rabbit’s foot.

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              • JCDAWG83

                I agree Senator. Last season, if MO had lost a game and we went to the SECCG, all things being equal, and we had won the SEC Championship, there would have been no way the committee would have let a three loss Georgia team into the playoff. That 2 of our losses came against 6-6 teams would have sealed our fate and shut down any arguments we might have had.

                The rest of the country’s SEC fatigue will also work against an SEC champ with 2 losses. The only way I could see a 2 loss SEC champ making the playoff is if no other P5 teams were undefeated.

                Ohio State and TCU have the easiest path to the playoff at this point with USC looking good too, in my opinion.

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              • Michael

                Look at how the Committee treated Florida State last year. They were the only unbeaten and yet they were fourth going into the championship game weekend and third at the end of it. The best development of last year with respect to rankings was the fact that the Committee doesn’t seem as tied to record as the human polls were. Thus, it’s entirely possible that they would put a two-loss SEC champion ahead of a one-loss champion from another conference, especially if that SEC champion comes from the West and played a brutal schedule. The starting point for your argument is that Auburn is going to face a murderer’s row in the West, but then for your argument to work, you have to assume that the Committee will not give them credit for playing a tough schedule. Last year indicates that the Committee is doing a better job of accounting for MOV and SOS.

                Now, one unknowable in this debate is whether Bama’s loss to Ohio State (as well as the carnage that was the West’s bowl season) affects the Committee’s perception. The SEC West will not have the same credibility next year as it did this past season.

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                • JCDAWG83

                  I think you’re overestimating the SEC love. The bowl record of the SEC last season was not good. The argument that the conference schedule is so tough teams have nothing left for the bowls really doesn’t hold water, any conference can claim that. I don’t see any 2 loss team getting into the playoff, regardless of what conference they come from unless there are no P5 undefeated or 1 loss teams. I don’t see how the West teams can claim a “tough” schedule when the West teams ended up doing the worst of all in bowl games.

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                • Will (The Other One)

                  Not just the record, but the size of some of the losses (looking particularly at the two Mississippi schools.)

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              • Cosmic Dawg

                Ohio State looks like a lock to me. So does TCU.

                yep.

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        • D.N. Nation

          Auburn was a 7-loss team masquerading as a 7-win one last year, and their defense gave up 90 or so points in the Iron Bowl. They were 0-2 against teams coming off of 49-point losses.

          Of course, the Barn is essentially the Florida Marlins of college football, so going from the pits to national contender is par for the (annoying) course. And they’ll always have the refs.

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      • Merk

        BOOM did crap at Texas. For whatever reason, UF just has good D every year. It was not like UF was a horrid D team and BOOM transformed them. Nope UF keeps at least 1-2 NFL caliber DBs at any given time and in college that is a game changer.

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    • Irishdawg

      How is Muschamp a better DC than Kirby Smart? Or John Chavis? Or Dick Bumpas? They’ve all had as much statistical success as Muschamp.

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    • JCDAWG83

      Sorry, but I don’t see Muschamp as the best DC in college football. I can’t think of anywhere he’s been where the defense was some sort of shut down, iron curtain barrier to offenses. We lit him up at Auburn, Texas wasn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut and Florida was good but not world beaters. I’d say Kirby, Chavis and even Ellis Johnson are as good as he is. Johnson did a great job at SC and Kirby has put good defenses on the field every season at Bama.

      Saying Muschamp is the best DC in the nation is sort of like People magazine saying Sandra Bullock is the most beautiful woman alive. It’s nice to say and while she’s good looking, she’s nowhere near the most beautiful. Muschamp is not bad by any means, but he’s no magical genius. If I had to say, I’d say he’s more of a psycho with a reputation for being better than he really is. I like having Pruitt better than Muschamp.

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    • JT (the other one)

      First I know ‘Champ personally. That said in his losses vs. us 45 (LSU 04′), 37 and 45 (AU 06-07). All he had to do is prepare for us.
      In 03′ yes his “D” beat us twice…but want to point out we had a new OL that year. Just sayin’.

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    • Will (The Other One)

      Based on what, exactly? His defenses at Auburn the first time around were good vs. non-UGA teams, sure, but that was 7 years ago. Ask BVG how success in a previous decade translates now.
      Texas didn’t scream too loudly when FL hired him, and that was under Mack Brown.
      At FL he had the current Falcons HC as DC for part of his time, so should he really get all the credit for the defensive performances?

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  4. diving duck

    Johnson may be good but Auburn has only been unstoppable with a dynamic runner and thrower at qb. At least for this year, Auburn’s defensive talent won’t compare with the talent Muschamp had at Florida.

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  5. Silver Britches

    Nobody shits the bed under the burden of crushing expectations like Auburn. Not even us.

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  6. ASEF

    Frankly, I am wondering where the love for Muschamp as defensive genius comes from. Is he good? Sure. But his resume at this point screams, “Good D-coordinator from an Xs-Os recruiting standpoint, maybe wears on his players and environment emotionally in the long-term.”

    He reportedly clashed with offensive staff at Texas. He stifled the offensive staff at Florida. I really wonder how far out of his comfort zone he will be this year. He doesn’t strike me as a guy who adapts well. He seems more the type who tries to mold his environment to his strengths rather than adapting his strengths to the needs of the moment.

    We’ll see. But I would not at all be surprised if we didn’t see a hint of offense versus defense team chemistry by the end the year on the Plains.

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    • Irishdawg

      It’s pretty easy to picture Muschamp’s ego clashing with Malzahn’s. Or maybe Gus will give Boom a nice turtleneck/sweater vest combo and everything will be easy like Sunday morning.

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    • BMan

      I agree with you ASEF. Boom is a very good coordinator, but I think he’s given way too much credit. Looking at some of his results, he has had some crappy defensive teams at both Texas and Auburn. Also, there is part of me that wonders how good a defense will be with any Gus Malzahn team. At their peak, they still haven’t had the greatest of defenses. Maybe it doesn’t need to be Bama/LSU MNC great considering the offense, but I think it exposes them on those afternoons when Auburn’s offense doesn’t put up 35-plus.

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    • Uglydawg

      ASEF…you must be a psychologist. I suspect you may be on to something …but it may take a couple of years to come to the surface at a place like Auburn, where the HC is worshiped and the offense only requires the defense to be average for success (in theory..but it won’t work that way).
      In reality, AU’s O is going to need the D to be very, very good if they are to win the West, and get into the final four….because the offense is going to take a step backwards from what’s it’s been….And it’s likely going to need to shut down Georgia twice to make it to the F-4.
      I doubt they can.
      Georgia will have a better offense than it did last year.. A healthy crew of running backs…at least one QB who is a duel threat…and an improved offensive line. Georgia’s defense will also be better than the one that Auburn saw too much of last year. Georgia was ranked 15 and Auburn 9 and Georgia dominated them.
      So while Georgia has (IMHO) improved in practically every aspect, Auburn has regressed at offense and may be better at defense.
      I’m betting Georgia and Alabama play in Atlanta. Auburn has three or four losses.
      http://www.google.com/url?url=http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DaZeLoCS-ViY&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=MshIVZzBG8LAgwTL9YD4DA&ved=0CBUQtwIwAA&usg=AFQjCNEgeA39KJPPN5feBRfF7vF9J1L76Q

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      • Dog in Fla

        “ASEF…you must be a psychologist.”

        Yes and his DSM 5 dx is that it’s Always Somebody Else’s Fault

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      • Cosmic Dawg

        Don’t see how offense is better with a new OC replacing a record-setting OC, green quarterback, new center, no Gurley, and too few and injury prone receivers. Hope I’m wrong.

        Agree with you this defense could be a lot of fun to watch, though.

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    • Russ

      That’s the other thing. I’m not sure Boom will put up with some of those “hurry up 3 and out” that Gus’s offense goes through on occasion. I expect to see some sparks flying.

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    • Cosmic Dawg

      Y’all are gonna get after me for this, but here’s my prediction:

      With the pressure of the Florida job off his back Muschamp will be relieved and his antics will go down a notch or two. I predict we see a little older, somewhat calmer version of a man eager to stay off SportsCenter and just go back to doing something he feels comfortable with.

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  7. DC Weez

    Boom = Overrated.
    Auburn = Overrated.

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  8. Scorpio Jones, III

    If Awbun makes it to Atlanta, they deserve to be there, barring a complete collapse by Big Brother, which ain’t likely.

    I am, however, more than a little suspicious of Awbun’s depth at the skill positions and on defense. One great player on the defensive front is not enough.

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  9. UGA85

    Some of this “love” comes from being on the national stage. Auburn won the SEC two years and almost won it all. They did win it all just a few years before that. They have been in the mix quite a bit recently despite playing in the West and being Alabama’s biggest opponent every year. Winning championships raises the bar and raises expectations.

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  10. MGW

    I would not want a Petrino coached team on my schedule to open the season. Especially if I’m coaching a team thats being told all summer by the media that they’re one of the best in the country.

    Don’t care what kind of talent Louisville returns, thats a tough game to open with.

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  11. Nate Dawg

    Senator – I wonder what dynamic the roll change will play for Muschamp? I haven’t read anyone say it here today, but what about the taste of crow as he goes back to DC from being a HC? I mean he certainly doesn’t seem like Mr. Personality so I wonder if he just becomes unbearable to his charges thus making him not near the DC he used to be because of his step down. Just curious to see if this has any affect on the situation. Or maybe I’m just grasping at straws/hope…

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    • Uglydawg

      I’m not pretending to answer for the Senator, Nate, but that is a real possibility…it will just depend on how much self-esteem Booma has and if he can reel in his bruised ego. I suspect he can…but he is almost certainly overrated as a DC because nobody can live up to that kind of hype. The first time someone puts up thirty or fourty on them, the legend will lose some of it’s luster. Let’s hope that by the end of the season, the legend is exposed as myth.

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      • Cojones

        Added to that is the report above concerning his run-ins with O-coors. Wanna bet whether he can clam up against Auburn’s O-coor or not? Added addendum: Bet those O-coors have a fraternity of personality gurus who all know each other and see or hear reports about Boom as a fellow coor or as Head Coach and the 5 O-coor guys he went through like shit through a goose.

        Bet Malzahn is holding his breath until Boom says something about him.

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    • He might have to eat a little humble pie but the Florida 6.2 million buy out and close to 2 million a year from the barners can buy a lot of Dom Perignon to wash it down.

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  12. PTC DAWG

    The pundits usually fail miserably on a team or two. Here’s to one of them being Auburn.

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    • Uglydawg

      Cheers!

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      • Uglydawg

        Last year they were in the top ten and the Dawgs #15 or 16 and Georgia blew them out. Of course, Auburn was Gus-graded (^) and Georgia was Dawg-graded…(Did any of you believe there were 15 better teams in the country than Geogia? I know there were some inexplicable slip ups, but even O-H-10 St. lost to VT…I thought the Dawgs were top 6 and maybe even better with a healthy and eligable Gurley).
        As usual, Georgia will start out under rated..which is a good thing to those of us that remember not-to-distant history.

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  13. Macallanlover

    I am also confused about the high expectations for AU and agree it is mostly a reflection of: 1) the media’s love for Boom, 2) their continuing infatuation for the SECW, and 3) the acceptance that Malzahn is some offensive guru. Auburn will be good, not great in 2015, but there is no clear powerhouse in the West and someone from that division has to be mentioned, along with the automatic pick of Bama. I think the media just cannot help themselves and Auburn wins by default as LSU continues to fail at QB development.

    Auburn can certainly win the West because it looks to be a total cluster by season’s end with a 2-3 way tie needing complicated tiebreakers to determine who goes to Atlanta. Five of the seven teams seem capable of being in that tie and it all comes down to who stubs their toe against the right team to prevail. If it comes down to total gridlock and ends up being decided by highest ranking, all this preseason AU hype could be the deciding factor. I like Arkansas and Bama to tie with 2 conference losses each, but wouldn’t rule AU, LSU, or A&M out.

    Like the Senator, I am also curious to see what Malzahn’s offense looks like with a QB more skilled at passing than running. They could be a tough out at home for us because both teams will likely need a W to get to the title game. We have been dominating them the last decade so they will be motivated, but we should have the talent and coaching edge. Just hope we go into that game healthy and continue to disappoint them because no one deserves a whipping more than them.

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    • Dog in Fla

      ” 1) the media’s love for Boom,….the media just cannot help themselves”
      because everyone likes a good IED story

      “Intermittent explosive disorder involves repeated episodes of impulsive, aggressive, violent behavior or angry verbal outbursts in which you react grossly out of proportion to the situation….

      Different types of drugs may help in the treatment of intermittent explosive disorder. These medications include:
      • Antidepressants, such as fluoxetine (Prozac) and others
      • Anti-anxiety agents in the benzodiazepine family, such as lorazepam (Ativan) and clonazepam (Klonopin)
      • Mood stabilizers, such as lithium (Lithobid)”

      http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/intermittent-explosive-disorder/basics/definition/con-20024309

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      • Cojones

        While they help, you first have to get the patient to agree before they will take them. Think Boom would tell you to “Keep your fucking meds for the other assholes who are always pissing me off and if you write anything else about my medical condition, I’m going to find your ass and … .!”.

        Of course I’m just guessing and don’t know anything about medicine north of ganja.

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        • If one assumes that psychotherapy won’t work for a football coach (a pretty safe bet given their kind and gentle nature) and they refuse the recommended daily dose of happy pills, that leaves only electro convulsive therapy, which for some coaches is indistinguishable from sideline antics and behavior

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        • Dog in Fla

          Maybe they are giving him meds because he sure is happy for a lot of people

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  14. Not Barry Demott

    Why does Muschamp hate Georgia so much?

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    • JCDAWG83

      He claims he didn’t want to go to Georgia, was a turd at heart, but we were the only ones who offered a scholarship. If you watch replays of him playing, you’ll see why we were the only ones offering. My guess is; he hates Georgia because we know how crappy of a player he really was.

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      • He was a walk on at Georgia and captain of the D his senior year. 2 ints for the year.

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        • Noonan

          Of course he was captain of the D which allowed Vandy to score 43 while beating us in Sanford, and then allowed Spurrier to score 52.

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          • Let me see. He was a walk on at Georgia. Had an offer from Navy. Played and got on scholly. D captain his senior year. And you wanna put all that weight of those 2 losses on his back? Spurrier won the SEC that year. Beat Alabama by one point. We lost to the Bama by one point. Auburn beat Spurrier that year. Auburn didn’t beat Georgia. Georgia finished 6-4 Vandy finished 5-6. I hate it . But for a Georgia walk on that managed to talk Saban Saban into hiring him at LSU he hasn’t done too bad. None too shabby IMO. Hoz it hangin’ Noonan? You gettin’ your share?

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    • Dog in Fla

      Because it’s part of his act:

      “Secret agents may be all around us, working for government agencies, corporate entities, and private organizations to collect information and report back. If you want to trade in secrets, and you think you’ve got what it takes to be a good field agent, you can learn how to build the real skills necessary to get the job done right, as well as how to join” and infiltrate the enemy…

      “Practice your witty one-offs, pithy comebacks, and all-around good-natured charm.”

      http://m.wikihow.com/Be-a-Secret-Agent

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  15. D.N. Nation

    Is anyone else really, really, really looking forward to the Louisville/Auburn Ex-Georgia Player Bowl? The levels of jackass on the field and sidelines during that game will be historic.

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  16. blunderbuss

    Auburn’s A-Day

    Their defense doesn’t hustle, they don’t all run to the ball, they’re not very good at tackling either. More of the same, I think. Same players with poor fundamentals not giving it their all. Sorry, but that isn’t going to be a team going to the NC, or even the SECC.

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  17. 69Dawg

    IMHO Muschamp will have a very difficult time being the DC of an up tempo O team. He will have to have his top players in the best shape of their lives or have enough depth to substitute a lot. If the Auburn O can’t stay on the field long enough to let the D rest then it will be a bad thing for the Gus Bus. His real problem will be having DL and LBs that are big enough to stop Alabama, Arkansas and us but small enough not to throw up after being on the field for 40 minutes of a 60 minute game.

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  18. Mike Cooley

    Boom is the best DC in college football? On what planet? We’re his defenses during his first tour with Auburn that good? I don’t remember them being. When he was at Texas I know they didn’t have a great defense. People remember those LSU defenses and give Boom credit for them but we all know whose defenses those were. I don’t buy that Boom is defensive mastermind. He’s overrated.

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  19. JoshG

    Yeah, those Texas defenses were just awesome. Wait. No, they were the opposite of that.

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  20. JAX

    Fuck Will Muschamp and fuck the university of auburn.

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  21. Mike Cooley

    Mike Cooley likes this.

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