Performance and the perception gap

As I suspected, the final preseason F/+ numbers – the marriage of Bill Connelly’s and Brian Fremeau’s advanced stats metrics – came out extremely favorably for Georgia, in this case, fourth.  That’s quite a bit higher than the Dawgs find themselves in the AP’s preseason rankings.  Bill wonders why.

Georgia (F/+ No. 4, AP No. 9)

Why the numbers like the Dawgs: Georgia is consistently good; the Dawgs have finished 14th or better in F/+ for four consecutive years and were fourth last season. They return maybe the best running back in college football (Nick Chubb), a well-seasoned offensive line, and an active, super-athletic back eight on defense. Mark Richt recruits well and wins 10 games each year when the injury bug isn’t particularly cruel. From the perspective of recent performance and returning talent, they are easily the surest bet in the SEC East.

Why the media doesn’t (as much): They dropped the ball last year, laying one of the season’s biggest eggs in a blowout loss to Florida and blowing the SEC East title (to Missouri, which the Dawgs beat by 34 points on the road) in the process. They struggled defending powerful run games last year and must now replace three linemen. And yes, they have a new quarterback.

One more thing: when Richt lost offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to the head coaching job at Colorado State, he replaced him with Brian Schottenheimer. When fans (in this case, those of the St. Louis Rams) lose their offensive coordinator and celebrate wildly, that’s a scary sign.

Of course, all Schottenheimer has to tell his new quarterback is, “Put the ball in Chubb’s (or his awesome backup’s) belly.”

For five of the six teams here, part of the difference between perception and projection might come because of the quarterback position. It’s interesting, and it makes sense, as simply using returning starters doesn’t give extra weight to the quarterback position.

But if everyone expects Georgia to take a heavy reliance on Chubb & Company to lighten the load on Lambert, you’d think that last point wouldn’t factor so much into perception, wouldn’t you?



Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

13 responses to “Performance and the perception gap

  1. Chuck

    Discrepancy between F/+ and the AP? Eh, I don’t care that much, LET’S JUST PLAY!!!!
    Let the Big Dawg Eat!


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  3. HVL Dawg

    Thanks Senator for getting us through the off season.


  4. Argondawg

    Mark Richt has lost control of Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau.


  5. CannonDawg

    We can’t run away from our history of turning into the Iraqi Republican Guard on occasion and losing like there’s a prize in it for us. It just happens, and the whole world sees it. And we get left watching on TV when Mizzou goes to ATL. But we can damn well change it, and this year would be the perfect time. We don’t brain fart, we don’t come up eight yards shy, we don’t do something stupid to give the officials a chance to determine an outcome. No, we either win or lose with an effort that was full and complete, a game plan that was smartly developed and just as smartly executed, and a coaching staff that is adjusting in real time and giving the players every opportunity to win. We do that, and I’ll be happy to let the chips fall where they may.

    And screw Herbstreit and Irving Myers.


  6. 15 Hours and counting. Thanks Senator for carrying us through the off season. Fate loves the fearless, let our Dawgs be forever fearless. Go Dawgs!


  7. Mayor

    Apparently UNC now has Bobo as its OC. What? Bobo is in Colorado? Who was it then that called the plays for UNC at the end of the North Carolina-South Carolina football game last night? Sure looked like Bobo to me. Or are some of you saying that the final UNC offensive series was just fine (passes from the 3 are just grand) and UNC really lost the game in the first quarter, not on that final series when they didn’t score from the 5, like you said last year about Georgia in the Georgia-South Carolina game.


    • JCDAWG83

      Don’t you know it’s only bad coaching or stupidity when someone else does it? When our coaching brain trust does it and anyone questions it, those people don’t understand because they’ve never been “in the arena”.


  8. BoroDawg

    “When fans (in this case, those of the St. Louis Rams) lose their offensive coordinator and celebrate wildly, that’s a scary sign.”

    What percentage of fans don’t rejoice when the OC leaves?


    • JCDAWG83

      I’m hoping for the best from Schotty; but I have to admit, the NFL hire worries me.


    • James Stephenson

      Exactly, Bobo ran one of the best offenses in the SEC the last few years and we still get idiots calling him BooBoo. The man was a Bulldog QB and a good OC, yet people I know were happy he was gone. Makes me want to pull my hair out.


  9. IndyDawg

    Analytics will only carry you so far. And if college football can ever be reduced to competing mathmatical formulas, I’ll start following my local high school Math League team–it would be just as thrilling. Perception to me is a mix of past & present observation with a dash of intuition & opinion. When that can accurately predict the future I’ll become a Weather Channel groupie or chase Fareed Zakaria for his signature on a GPS t-shirt. Cheering on the Dawgs or any team comes with uncertainty and that’s the spice in sports entertainment.

    Somebody gimme a “GO DAWGS!” in here! Let’s kick this thing off and have some fun.