Bill C. has the statistical deets.
This scenario is pretty easy to lay out.
Florida wins out in conference play, beating Missouri and South Carolina at home, Arkansas on the road, and Georgia in Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, Tennessee loses one more time, either to Alabama, Kentucky, or Missouri at home or South Carolina or Vanderbilt on the road.
- Florida’s win probability in these games, per S&P+: South Carolina 92%, Missouri 82%, vs. Georgia 77%, at Arkansas 63%.
- Tennessee’s win probability in its remaining games: Kentucky 90%, at Vanderbilt 89%, at South Carolina 83%, Missouri 77%, Alabama 26%.
There are nine relevant games here, which produces 512 different combinations of wins and losses. Of these 512, five give us exactly four Florida wins and four Tennessee wins.
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Bama: 13.9%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Missouri: 1.5%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but South Carolina: 1.0%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Vanderbilt: 0.6%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Kentucky: 0.5%
ARMAGEDDON ODDS: 17.5%, approximately the current odds of Donald Trump winning the presidential election (speaking of Armageddon …).
Yeah, well, if you compare it to the odds that Georgia would barely squeak by Nicholls, 17.5% looks pretty stout.
Should Georgia lose the Cocktail Party, I’m gonna be enormously miffed if Bert screws this whole thing up.
Get The Picture 
Watching Florida getting screwed by the SEC refs is going to be fun.
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Thankfully they play Arky after Jax.
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UF ain’t winning out in the SEC. ..just ain’t happening…UT gonna run out of luck too. That was luck that guy fumbled out of the endzone to even give them a chance vs aTm.
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I wouldn’t call it luck when a player keeps hustling and knocks the ball out. Luck is when the guy just drops the ball for no reason like Pig Howard did. Both UT and UF have it easy on the back end but UF got a walkover in their only real hard game against LSU. Barring a total melt down by Alabama, and they have had some, UT has 2 loses. UF has nobody between them and Atlanta but us and Arky. The SEC should schedule the game on Nov 19th and if LSU does not show up they forfeit. SEC can’t afford look bad in the SECC game like it has the past few years. Dooms day will be the team playing Alabama in the SECC championship game winning with 2 loses. SEC stays home.
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Your scenario is fine by me…..and we disagree on UT and luck, it happens..UT is the luckiest team going this year. IMHO
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Tennessee has a lot of injuries. If it’s a war of attrition against Bama..then I think Mizzo’s odds are way understated. If Dobbs should go down, I don’t know if Tennessee beats anybody easily. They just aren’t that great.
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This will certainly be a telling weekend if Mizzou springs an upset on UF and Bama handles Tenn.
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Right, Ug. Dobbs is 90% of UT’s O. Without Dobbs UT struggles against UK and Vandy IMHO.
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Mizzoui will upset somebody.
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The entire SEC East is really bad this year.
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IDK, UT getting royally screwed has a certain appeal.
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I really like that. But I want to beat UF more than I like it.
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Scary thing is UGA actually has a real chance of winning the East. I maybe bad in saying this but…. I want UT and UGA to both win out but I’d rather see Bama hammer UT in the Dome. I don’t see UGA beating Bama and a 2 loss season would be a nice year 1 with hopefully recruiting momentum.
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I’d prefer UGA winning out, UT dropping this weekend and then getting whipped again in Atlanta. And if UT and UF both have two losses, but UF has one less win, UT gets to Atlanta on percentage (and head-to-head tiebreaker vs us.) Though the real best-case is Mizzou gets an upset over UF and then they get so disappointed post-WLOCP they lose to SCar.
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The scenario you described above is actually OK Will. Win 10 games and a bowl for an 11-2 season by the Dawgs. Let UT take it on the chin twice from Bama by 4 TDs each game and end up with a bowl loss so they have a 4 loss year and the world also knows they lucked out beating the Dawgs on the ref-assisted hail mary. That would help Georgia in recruiting.
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^^^^ this – I’ll accept the hillbillies in the CG in exchange for a win in Jacksonville
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Agreed a 1st year win in Jacksonville would set a great tone and is likely the highest remaining on field priority at this point.
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Senator, you are having a great blogging season.
I’m thinking you’ll win a post season award.
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FLA 77% chance to beat us? Why don’t we just tag out and let LSU stand in for us.
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LMAO….very good!
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Yes, that seems way off on the odds. FU looked like crap against both Vandy and TN, we have looked that bad 3 times ourselves. Could be a crapshoot in JAX if one of us doesn’t find some magic, but right now neither looks like a 3-1 winner.
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UT had a ton of injuries, a ton of turnovers, and still almost beat A&M. No one but Bama beats them the rest of the way.
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True..but we got the shit kicked out of us by OMs and had Tennessee on the ropes….so one can hope. I do.
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I realize I am a homer but is anyone else surprised to see Georgia has only a 33% chance of beating UF? What am I missing here? I would think that game would be much closer to a toss up.
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Connelly has Florida ranked 10th on his S&P+ rankings. UGA is 47th.
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It thinks a lot of the Gators defensively, though based on what UT did to them, I think it’s overestimating them by a lot.
Meanwhile, that 1% performance vs Nicholls is really dragging down UGA’s total (to put in full perspective how bad S&P+ views that game…Rutgers scored a 23% performance in a loss to Michigan where they only got their first first down with 9 minutes left, down 71-0.)
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Defense probably has the most to do with it. But special teams is the biggest disparity. Florida is ranked 4th in special teams and UGA is 124th. Yikes.
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I think it’s simple for Sankey:
“Florida, if you can’t work this out, then you are disqualified from the SEC East Crown”.
Same for LSU, but I don’t think they have a shot at this point.
Then, see if everyone lawyers up.. talk about a mess.
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Sankey can’t make that call without the approval of the conference schools.
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It will be fun to see if any bylaws are changed/added
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Kirby and Nicky have already schemed for next year…win your first conference game, then refuse to play the rest. The two 1-0 teams meet in the SECCG in December. #theprocess
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I figured he couldn’t unilaterally make that call, but if I were him, I’d at least threaten to.
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The NCAA President imposed sanctions on State Penn without the authority to do it. Why can’t Sankey tell FU play LSU or it counts as a forfeit and you are outdisqualified from the SEC Championship Game EVEN IF YOU WIN THE EAST? Let FU try to get a court to rule they can play in the SECCG if they win out without LSU. I’m betting they can’t get a ruling in time and even if they did it would be delayed if an appeal is filed.
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Maybe he could call up the dick with ears and ask his opinion…..is anyone else as fed up with fine bam as I am!?
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So…..What has Obama got to do with this?
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Hah!
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‘Bama:
Executive order #733.
1. Send Syrian refugees to the Mayors town!
Audit his taxes!
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Belay that order! Send them to AHD’s backyard and don’t audit his taxes until early Nov. Even better, don’t audit them and just start the rumor that you are going to, that way he’s always looking over his shoulder for the Obama Vendetta.
Did you hear that Hillary will create a post of Sec of Ganja just for Obama? He wants to go legit as the head of the nefarious pot groups he has directed and been responsible for during his terms in office. 🙂
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😉
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After that video today, the description is apt.
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Well played His Honor!
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Bad Dawg!
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UGA wins out & the Vols lose to the Tide & Is upset by one of the lesser
SEC teams on their schedule. Improbable but not impossible. Go Dawgs.
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