State of the state’s recruiting

Some of you may remember a some data and observations I sourced a year ago about Georgia’s recruiting that originated with Henry, a reader of the blog.  (You can find them here, here and here.)

Well, he’s back with some more number crunching and some thoughts about what that suggests:

Top 10 Players in Georgia  (based on the 247Sports composite rankings)

Year UGA Bama Auburn Clemson USCe FSU UF UT
2018 6 2 1
2017 5 1 1 1
2016 2 3 1 1 1
2015 5 1 1
2014 3 2 2 2
2013 2 2 2 1 1
2012 3 3 2 1 1
2011 5 1 2
2010 3 1 1 2
2009 5 1 1

Here are some thoughts I had after looking at this data:

          — Alabama’s current success on the field is not tied to their success recruiting the top players in Georgia. A look at their signees show that Alabama recruits nationally.

          — The biggest growing competition for the top players in the state increasingly is coming from Clemson.

          — Until the last two years, Auburn had been the biggest competition for the top in-state players.

          — Top in-state players, for the most part, didn’t go to FSU or Florida.

          — Georgia Tech was not included in the data because they have not signed a Top 10 player from Georgia in at least 10 years, which I think is amazing.

          —  If a top player is going to leave Georgia, he is going to go farther afield than adjacent states.  A look at each year’s signees shows success from top academic schools such as Notre Dame, Stanford, Cal, etc.  So much for the argument that Tech can’t sign the top players in Georgia because their academics are so high

Signed Recruits from Georgia

Year UGA Bama Auburn Clemson USCe FSU UF UT
2018 14 0 8 5 8 7 4 4
2017 16 1 5 4 7 5 0 3
2016 16 1 6 4 7 1 2 5
2015 15 3 11 4 10 2 5 6
2014 10 2 12 5 5 1 0 4
2013 19 3 4 5 8 0 6 3
2012 11 8 6 0 12 0 3 5
2011 19 3 7 1 11 3 0 7
2010 14 4 11 7 6 3 3 7
2009 11 5 5 2 8 2 1 4

        —  Georgia is signing about the same amount of in-state kids, but the quality is higher.

         — Except for 2012, Bama does not sign a lot of Georgia players, although this was the first time in 10 years they din’t sign any kids from Georgia.

         —  Clemson is on a consistent trend to sign about 25% of their class from Georgia with the quality being very high.

         — Auburn and South Carolina, of the adjacent states, seem to rely on recruiting Georgia kids the most.

         — Tennessee consistently signs Georgia players.  They were successful in Georgia under Fulmer and Pruitt knows the state and the school, so that bears watching.

         — FSU has successfully recruited more Georgia kids in the last two years. It will be interesting to see if that continues under Taggart since there is more and more competition from in-state schools in Florida.

         — Florida is up and down in Georgia, but Mullen recruited some Georgia kids in the second signing period this year and he faces the same in-state competition as FSU.

         — South Carolina bears watching under Muschamp.  I don’t think he will beat Kirby for the top kids, but those kids right behind that level who didn’t get an offer from Georgia could make this one of our tougher games in coming years.  The same might be said of Auburn.

Some of what he finds tracks what Bud Elliott had to say the other day.  I’d add a couple of points.  The first is more of just an elucidation of what Henry noted.  The big thing about these last two classes is that Kirby’s done something Richt never could — stacked loaded top ten groups back-to-back.  Richt had his moments, but never sustained any recruiting momentum with the top-rated recruits.

Second, I don’t know what Dabo Swinney’s doing exactly, but whatever it is, he’s doing it well.

Third, South Carolina’s made as much of a living off Georgia talent as Auburn has.  I agree with Henry that Boom won’t get the top Georgia kids, but with the way he’s going, if he can pull in enough numbers to build some depth, the years when he gets lucky to harvest great in state talent, like Spurrier did with Lattimore and Clowney, that program can be good enough to challenge for division titles.

Last, Alabama getting skunked in the state of Georgia with this last class is something.  Almost makes me think Kirby had that on his to-do list.

(P.S.  “Georgia Tech was not included in the data because they have not signed a Top 10 player from Georgia in at least 10 years…”.  Time flies when you’re having a good time.)

Your thoughts?


Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting

14 responses to “State of the state’s recruiting

  1. I’ve always thought the strategy for recruiting should be:

    1) Identify the top 20-30 kids in state that fill your roster needs regardless of position. Recruit them like crazy.

    2) Recruit Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina (to a lesser extent, Tennessee) for talent you think can be game changers. Target 15-20 players.

    3) Recruit nationally for a QB unless a blue chip talent is in state.

    4) If you can get a big time talent nationally (DeAndre Swift), identify individual players.

    Never give up on an in-state player committed elsewhere on your board. Kirby is killing it here.


    • Go Dawgs!

      Tennessee allegedly has some really good high school talent in the 2019 class. It’d be hilarious for Kirby to go up there and rob some of them from Pruitt’s back yard, but as usual Georgia doesn’t need to go outside of the state to get much this year. It’d just be enjoyable for the troll value. Maybe Vanderbilt can take them instead.


      • Tony Barnfart

        getting Cade Mays was the equivalent to Tennessee signing the son of Jon or Matt Stinchcomb while said Stinchcombs live in Athens.


  2. DC Weez

    I really don’t understand Tech. I get it that it’s hard to recruit players for that goofy offense. There is no excuse, however, for not being able to recruit top level defensive players from Georgia.

    Another strange recruiting thing I noted was that neither Kentucky nor Louisville signed a from player from Kentucky. Tech, however, did sign a player from Kentucky.


  3. Two quick thoughts on your comments:

    Bud had good commentary regarding Dabo’s absurd hit rate the last few years with smaller recruiting classes and whether that’s sustainable or not.

    Clemson is no doubt on a great run with its hit rate. But part of me does feel that the Tigers are playing with fire taking so few prospects in a two-year span. When a school does this, any attrition is felt more than it would be at a school that signs more prospects, simply because it represents a greater portion of the whole. I don’t think you’ll see Clemson go this route again in 2019.

    That Georgia Tech comment would sustain me through several long winters.


  4. Raleigh St. Claire

    Not enough is made of the difference between the talent level we are signing and the next tier Carolina is signing.

    That plays out on the field.


  5. Erk's Forehead

    My thought is that, given the number of top tier stat-heads like StatDawg82 and Henry that UGA has apparently produced, Tech has lost yet another recruiting pitch from its toolbelt. Delicious, those salty tears.


  6. Tony Barnfart

    it’s going to be annoying when Fishfry leaves… having to actually account for them again. It’s like being in a state with nothing but Group of 5 programs… maybe they’ve been crappy for so long that it’s their permanent place / mentality. At least i hope so.

    Bobby Dodd leaving the SEC in 64’ish was the best thing that ever happened to us.


    • Raleigh St. Claire

      They’ve really hamstrung their entire program by keeping him on. The talent is so mediocre and tailored to his rinky dink offense that if and when they do make a change, it’ll take them years to be somewhat competitive again.


  7. CB

    “South Carolina bears watching under Muschamp.”

    Signs #1 rated recruit in the state of South Carolina *