According to his Twitter bio, Powers once worked with Phil Steele and his specialty is devising power ratings. He describes his methodology as follows:
This early set of power ratings takes into consideration the amount of returning production, the number of returning starters and other key factors (turnovers, close wins/losses, recruiting, etc).
The interesting thing to me about his 2019 list isn’t that there are five SEC teams in his top ten. What’s interesting to me is how his ratings have moved, year-to-year.
Rome wasn’t built in a day and Georgia catching Alabama for the long haul wasn’t something I expected to occur overnight, no matter how much sleeping giant talk we’ve heard about the program Kirby Smart took over. Progress, though, seems undeniable. Georgia has managed to cut the gap between it and the defending national champs essentially in half, as shown by Powers’ numbers, and come close to doing the same with ‘Bama.
Obviously, there’s still work to be done, but it’s nice to see third-party confirmation like this. I’ll be curious to see if Steele tracks this as well when his preview mag hits the stands in the next couple of weeks.
Get The Picture 
Btw, this is what Florida fans mean when we say closing the gap. I like to think I am pretty realistic about the size of the gap between the two programs, but on that chart UF gained 4.5 points to Georgia’s .7.
There’s still a sizable gap between the two programs, especially in talent, but based on a very small sample size, the gap is closing. It may never close, but as of right now, it’s shrinking.
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The issue is where each program finds its plateau.
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For sure, but having a ceiling given the current infrastructure and people in charge doesn’t preclude gaps closing.
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Got to step up a lot more in recruiting than we’re currently seeing.
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10 point difference last year in the ratings (UF/UGA). When played last year, the scoreboard showed almost a 20 point difference after the “horn sounded”. Too bad they can’t play the game on that chart, it would be much closer, give them realistic hope.
Guess the dawgs will just have to “talk with their helmets” again this year.
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Clemson beat Alabama by a significantly greater margin than their .24 advantage would suggest, far outstripping the proportional UGA/UF gap of nearly ten full points.
These statistics may have some informational merit, but they aren’t going to predict a final scoreboard.
They do tell me what I’ve been saying since I was down in Death Valley….Kick the damn ball Kirby!!!!
But I digress….
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I realize I am going against the grain with this but I just don’t understand how Bama can be rated higher than Clemson. They played in the final game of the 2018 season less than 5 months ago at a neutral site and Clemson rolled Bama by 30 points. The core of both teams return for 2019. Also it seems illogical that 5 SEC teams can be in the top ten when for the most part they are going to be playing each other. Are we ignoring projected win loss records now?
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The reason for the disparity is because the national championship game was weird. The stats projected something like a five-point Clemson victory. If they played that game 20 times, I doubt Clemson would have managed to win by 28 a single other time, and Alabama would have won at least half of them.
And yes, this is ignoring projected won-loss record. It’s the same as S&P+, projecting the actual quality of the teams based on whatever the formula gauges.
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Shit….Bama would have lost 10 out of next 10. No answer for Clemson’s QB, no answer for their big fast WR’s….no answer for their DL. A matchup nightmare for Bama.
They just got their asses kicked…and it would happen over & over again (last years teams).
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Okay….
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My point exactly Greg. And the 2019 Versions of Bama and Clemson are going to be pretty much the same as most of both those teams return for the 2019 campaign. So who am I supposed to believe? This football hack or my own lyin’ eyes?
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Might be because it takes into account departures. What Clemson’s defense lost was significant, and computers might not like their depth of talent compared to Alabama’s….
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The problem is how did Florida go up 4.50 in the power rating compared to what they ahve lost (all their OL basically) and the lack of recruiting they are seeing. Their recruiting class last year has already lost their best player after a couple of months on campus. 2 of their highest rated recruits in this class will not qualify supposedly. They got blown by UK and Mizzou at home. They beat a Michigan team but with 8 starters on the side because of the draft.
I hope like the hype they gave USuCk last year that Florida falls on their face. Foda a se Florida.
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With apologies to our UF visitor above, I just cannot see how Florida rates the preseason rankings it’s received pretty much across the board this year. What am I missing?
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Nothing. UF will be noticeably worse this season, and Mullen’s 2020 class is going to be McElwainish. No hope, no mercy, FTMFs.
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Those rating numbers must place heavy emphasis on perceived QB improvement since that’s the major improvements touted for LSU and FU. Burrows and Franks must have been pulling sports media dicks for the last several months after their ratings were on the upswing at the last half of the scheduled season because I don’t see the uptick could have come from anywhere else. Maybe because FU’s coaching has taken an upswing in the sports media’s mind due to their 10-win season?
There is no visible reason for the improvement of FU’s and LSU’s power ratings vs UGA’s in my mind’s eye. Could someone please help this old fart see the light?
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For all of that hype coming out of gtu the actually are 10.05 down from last year’s pathetic team.
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The fact of the matter remains. UGA is still closer to LSU than Bama and Clemson. A long way to go, as I see it.
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Huge jump for LSU. LSU is good, but I’m still not all-in on the Tigers or Coach O. However, they do have a Sr. QB and some impressive offensive power.
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In this Hogbody’s modest opinion, Orgeron/Newman/Flounder’s motivational schtick has a 1-2 year freshness period, so LSU better use it while in its shelf life.
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LSU was good enough to beat the Dawgs last season. Just sayin.’
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Aubie loses their starting QB and the rating goes up? More evidence why I lost respect for football gurus long ago.
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addition by subtraction?
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You are dead right Westy.
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UF and AU, the most overrated teams in the top 10…
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At least Steele has us in the 4-team pick’em for the NC.
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If the Gawdly Dabo and the lovely and talented Trevor Lawrence can beat the Evil Empire, we should be able to. We’d better not barf another one up.
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Hell I think we’ve got to set our sights on Clemson. Bama’s beatable, but that NCG last year was insane.
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Weakness in this is it measures the “macro” viewpoint which can be misleading in game where matchup inequities can distort the expected results. This system seems better in projecting the season than individual game results between two teams, if I am reading this right. This weakness is somewhat captured by including production losses but could explain why a hot QB and WRs could blow out a somewhat weak Bama secondary at year’s end. Still good info, but computers will never dial down to game results between unit match-ups of teams on specific dates, and with player availability on that day.
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