Your Daily Gator indulges its inner StingTalk.

During the Richt era, I enjoyed reading the message board threads concocted at StingTalk and other Tech blogs that would torture cherry-picked statistics into doing whatever stupid pet tricks would work to show that the Jackets were bound to beat Georgia that year.

Of course, we don’t call it Mark Richt Field for nothing.  But I digress.

Anyways, check out this item at Alligator Alley for something with a similar flavor.

… I thought it would interesting to take a look at the Gator’s 2019 schedule and see which games are projected to be close and which ones the gators should have the edge and/or not have the edge based on the 247 Composite ratings for each team’s projected starters. This analysis looks at the raw rating and an adjusted rating using the 247 Composite Ratings

The Adjusted Rating is simply the Raw Score factored for what class the player is in (Freshman = 85%, Sophomore = 90%, Junior = 95%, and Senior = 100% of the raw ratings). Granted, there are probably hundreds of ways you could do this and multiple ways of accounting for experience, I understand that…but teams are applied with the same factors so whatever disagreements you might have with the factor, at least it impacts each team equally.

Disclaimer – This is NOT an analysis that predicts the outcome, it is a talent evaluation that forms the starting point to determine where some of the potential match ups advantages and disadvantages might be during the game, and thus impact the game planning for both teams. It is simply a data point for consideration…

Yeah, right, bubba.

*Week 9 – Florida vs Georgia (2-2 DRAW – Coaching Edge to Florida)*

Based on the numbers, this should be an offensive shoot out. Both teams have the edge over the opposing defenses. The question here will be which quarterback can better exploit that…usually I would give that edge to Fromm, but I also think Henderson, Wilson and Dean are far better than anything he will face all year…so it is likely going to come down to how much the Safeties for Florida can do their job!

I’m giving the coaching edge to Florida, I am just not sold in Kirby’s game day management and I think Florida will be motivated to get this in the win column!

I keep thinking I’m gonna run out of material for these Daily Gator posts any day now, but it seems I’m underestimating the Florida fan base.  Thanks, fellas.

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36 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators...

36 responses to “Your Daily Gator indulges its inner StingTalk.

  1. dawgfan1995

    Any “analysis” that puts Florida’s offensive line as being equivalent to Georgia’s offensive line is crazy.

    Not to mention the nonsensical across the board use of high school recruiting numbers being multiplied blindly by percentages. As baseball guru Bill James once wrote, if you’re going to multiply A times B, you better have a damn good reason for doing it. This stuff violates that rule 8 times over.

    Liked by 1 person

    • gastr1

      “This is NOT an analysis that predicts the outcome”

      “I am just not sold in Kirby’s game day management and I think Florida will be motivated to get this in the win column”

      LOL.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Comin' Down The Track

        Yeah, this whole new kIrBy’S gAMe DaY mAnAgEmEnT meme is taking on a life of its own in certain, desperate sectors.

        Liked by 2 people

        • gastr1

          Not predicting the outcome, though. But yes, Florida will win. But only based on a talent evaluation.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Will Adams

          Right? I can understand a Bama fan saying that. But even then, it doesn’t hold a lot of water. But a gator fan? Com on… Beating the crap out of FU in the second half of last year’s game and absolutely spanking them for 4 quarters the year before are examples that directly contradict that claim. Gaytard fans living vicariously through Bama is ok with me though because it means we put another whipping on them yet again.

          Like

    • Cojones

      The “experience” they weigh to the FU side includes the experience of two consecutive defeats at our hands. Their defeated experience is wonderful to behold and would predict the Dawgs thumping their ass once again this year.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Spike

    Wow! The Gators will be motivated to win this game and put it in the win column! We should just, therefore, forfeit the game …

    Like

  3. Biggus Rickus

    I was hoping one sane Florida fan would point out how terrible his methodology is, if only to see the argument that ensued. Oh well.

    Like

  4. ChiliDawg

    Here’s a list of data I’ve compiled to show objectively reasons why…. no, forget that, let me pull this subjective diatribe out of my ass and tell you why I feel we’re gonna win.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. GruvenDawg

    LOL!!!

    #ftmf

    Like

  6. dawgfan1995

    The guy who posted it updated it to say that his ratings are based on projected starters. He claims that we have to replace 6 of 11 starters on offense and 7 of 11 on defense. One of the new starters is D’Andre Swift. Another is Richard LeCounte.

    Another flaw in his data is easily gathered from looking at Eric Stokes. Anyone who thinks Stokes is literally the worst starter on either team after watching last year’s games is simply an idiot.

    Like

  7. David H.

    I have a feeling that Georgia will be motivated to win the game as well. May the best team win…

    Like

  8. stoopnagle

    #cannonshot

    #ftmf

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Dawg in Austin

    Even though I suspect the dawgs will win by 2 TDs (and I’m thrilled to be going back to Ajax again to see it in person), I’m frankly surprised to see this many blue chippers on the starting roster. I really thought they’d be gutted by this year. A lot of their lower rated guys on D are upper classmen and the blue chippers are young. Not a bad place to be. Gonna be fun to pound that D line though.

    Like

  10. Texas Dawg

    I love to see the Turds posting all this. This is the motivation UGA needs for this game. When it gets down to the last few minutes of the game and the Dawgs are worn out and about to fail, this will be just the motivation they need. They will suck it up, dig deep, and punch the ball over the goal line to go up by 35 instead of the measly 28 that they were about to settle for……before they remembered this bulletin board material.

    Like

    • Got Cowdog

      The second string will have only been in since the middle of the third quarter. They shouldn’t be tired at all.

      Like

  11. Charlottedawg

    The chatter from Florida is starting to sound a lot like what we heard from the gamecocks this time last year. Hopefully with similar results.

    Liked by 2 people

  12. Doug

    So the Gators are gonna win because dangit, they just want it more. Say what you will, but this guy could get a regular spot on “College Gameday” with that kind of deep, trenchant analysis.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. practicaldawg

    This reminds me a lot of UGA vs. Sandstorm and heat this time last year

    Liked by 1 person

  14. He feels that FSU is better than them but that they are even with UGA, seems that crack is a horrible drug!

    Like

    • Will Adams

      Or a great drug. Depending on if you like to live in reality, of course. This guy loves him some fantasy fo sho.

      Like

  15. Mayor

    I’m not sold on Kirby’s game day management either. Hopefully he’ll learn from his mistakes.

    Like

  16. Pedro

    I already have my $500 bet in at 4.5. That spread could only be based on Medicare frauding, opioid addicting, jolt wearing irrationality.

    Like

  17. As with most lizards, they run around trying to feed off of anything that’s moving or not, then their tail falls off…and they continue to run around looking for their tail while feeding off the scraps on the ground, then they think that being in the tree would be better for safety and dietary reasons, but one little issue was over looked..cause that tree they want to be in belongs to the Big Dawg of the EAST who pisses on the tree daily…long story short, lizards will drown believing shit that does not exist….

    Like

  18. Will Adams

    I noticed that the statistician whom put this “analysis” together also thinks UGA has only 6 returning starters total. He has a post on that thread which lists the returning starters for each team and he absolutely whiffs on who we have returning. I’m not going to run the numbers to check his work because the “analysis” is absolutely pointless but, it wouldn’t surprise me if he got a few of the calcs wrong in order to make a FU win look more likely.

    As the great author, Mark Twain, said; There are 3 types of lies…
    Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
    This is an example of all 3 types.

    Like

  19. J.Maxwell

    WTF!!!!!!!

    Like

  20. J.Maxwell

    WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Like