Start fast and stay hot

Georgia’s gotten off to a good start this season.  The defense has only allowed six points in the four first quarters it’s played.  Guess what, though?  Arkansas has been even better.

If you combine what UGA and Arkansas have done this season in the first quarter, you get a score of 104-6. Georgia has given up all six of those points while scoring 70. Arkansas has hung 34 first-quarter points on its opponents this season while giving up zero.

Not only that, but, as Brian Fremeau points out, the Arkansas defense has been damned good in the second half.

The Razorbacks defense has been particularly suffocating in the second half this season. On 20 non-garbage opponent second-half possessions, Arkansas has surrendered only three touchdowns. Only one of the other 17 drives in that non-garbage second-half set managed to cross midfield, a turnover on downs forced against Rice in Week 1. After tying the game up on the next possession against the Owls, Arkansas has not trailed in the first or second half of a game since. Last weekend, the Razorbacks allowed one 67-yard Isaiah Spiller touchdown run in the third quarter, but surrendered less than 50 yards combined on all other second-half possessions against the Aggies.

He goes on to say this about the game, though:

… For their part, the Bulldogs have the most impressive team efficiency metrics by far this season, and they would be a clear FEI No. 1 team this week if they were not also held back somewhat by more modest preseason projection numbers. FEI projects Georgia to win by 18.8 points over Arkansas, consistent with the performance expectations of an elite team against a merely good team.

Maybe that’s the case on the spread, but it sure seems like everything points to taking the under Saturday, which is something like 48.5.


Filed under Arkansas Is Kind Of A Big Deal, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

15 responses to “Start fast and stay hot

  1. Down Island Way

    Both teams will not start hot, “Madman Monken” will exploit Arky scheme, their dc will adjust and it wouldn’t surprise if “manball” should up for a while at Sanford stadium, only for a while though…


  2. practicaldawg

    I’m glad to see that even going into week 5, those preseason expectations are important enough not to fully discard. Talking season still matters.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. spur21

    This game will be a battle from start to finish and it gives me an uneasy feeling.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. akascuba

    Make Arkansas play from behind score early and often.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. I think if we get through Arkansas’s first 3 series okay, it should be a pretty easy “pull away in the 2nd half” type game. They just don’t have the depth to hang and are a bit too one-dimensional from what I’ve seen. I also expect to see a ton of Bowers, McConkey, and Kearis in the first half in the short/intermediate game. I could actually see early offensive mistakes on their end that may open it up early for us as I think they will be pressing hard trying to “prove the hype” this week.

    Liked by 3 people

    • iusedtopostasmikecooley

      Yeah I agree. I think Arkansas is going to try too hard to prove they’re for real and it’s going to hurt them. If they get in a hole early they are done.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. RangerRuss

    Arkansas ain’t played The Dawgs yet BLUTOOOOO!!!

    Liked by 6 people

  7. I hope we rattle the shit out of KJ very early and often and the wheels fall off their offense…my hope is this is a Kirby imposing his will statement game

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Dawg in Austin

    I liked the under too, but if Big 0 and Arian Smith are back I find it hard to believe Arky can stop the Dawgs enough to keep us under 40 points. Might stay away from the game entirely, both lines feel like close calls.


  9. californiadawg

    Briles will throw the kitchen sink at us. Wouldn’t be surprised to see flea flickers and trick plays early to take the crowd out of it, playing with house money and all. I think we’re in for an anxious first half but our depth and defense will persevere in the end.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. Brian Taylor

    I’m not listening to any of this over-hyped nonsense. You’d think Arkansas all of a sudden has been reincarnated as the ’75 Pittsburgh Steelers!
    When the game is over this Saturday, Bama will still be #1 and undefeated, and we will still be # 2 and undefeated.
    Arkansas will probably drop down to a more realistic 15 or 16, and Ole Miss will probably be at 20 or 21.
    I think UGA is currently favored by -18.5 over the Hogs with an O/U of 48 or so.
    Look, folks…Arkansas has no “Iron Curtain” packed inside their equipment trailer, and they will have to establish a better resume than wins over a hapless Texas team and a 10-point victory over TAMU, a team that was probably a good bit overrated at #6, and is in real need of better talent at QB.
    Sorry, but an offensive juggernaut they ain’t.
    I really don’t believe the game will be all that close… UGA 45-17

    Liked by 4 people