Georgia’s gotten off to a good start this season. The defense has only allowed six points in the four first quarters it’s played. Guess what, though? Arkansas has been even better.
If you combine what UGA and Arkansas have done this season in the first quarter, you get a score of 104-6. Georgia has given up all six of those points while scoring 70. Arkansas has hung 34 first-quarter points on its opponents this season while giving up zero.
Not only that, but, as Brian Fremeau points out, the Arkansas defense has been damned good in the second half.
The Razorbacks defense has been particularly suffocating in the second half this season. On 20 non-garbage opponent second-half possessions, Arkansas has surrendered only three touchdowns. Only one of the other 17 drives in that non-garbage second-half set managed to cross midfield, a turnover on downs forced against Rice in Week 1. After tying the game up on the next possession against the Owls, Arkansas has not trailed in the first or second half of a game since. Last weekend, the Razorbacks allowed one 67-yard Isaiah Spiller touchdown run in the third quarter, but surrendered less than 50 yards combined on all other second-half possessions against the Aggies.
He goes on to say this about the game, though:
… For their part, the Bulldogs have the most impressive team efficiency metrics by far this season, and they would be a clear FEI No. 1 team this week if they were not also held back somewhat by more modest preseason projection numbers. FEI projects Georgia to win by 18.8 points over Arkansas, consistent with the performance expectations of an elite team against a merely good team.
Maybe that’s the case on the spread, but it sure seems like everything points to taking the under Saturday, which is something like 48.5.