To paraphrase Charlie Weis somewhat, Georgia doesn’t come into tonight’s game with a decided schematic advantage over TCU; it comes in with a decided talent advantage. Josh Pate does a good job summing up what that means.
Georgia doesn’t have to play a perfect game tonight to win. (Before you go there, that’s not the same thing as saying the Dawgs don’t have to play a good game.) TCU pretty much does have to bring their A game to win. I’m not saying that’s an impossibility — any given Saturday… er, Monday and all that — but that’s a tough reach in the most pressure packed game the Horned Frogs have played this season against the nation’s best team.
It’s hard to see a lot of common ground between Ohio State and TCU this season, but there’s one thing that gives me some pause for thought. Both teams came into their games against Georgia with questions, Ohio State’s fragility after a second loss to Michigan and TCU’s Cinderella status. If you’re the better team, you don’t want to give the other guys confidence by letting them hang with you early. That’s exactly what happened in the Peach Bowl, and it came very close to costing Georgia the game. TCU isn’t as talented as the Buckeyes, for sure, but here’s what giving them belief has meant this year:
TCU has played 7 games against ranked teams. All 7 were 4th-quarter games.
Five of the 7 were last-possession games.
The Frogs won’t be intimidated by the stage or the enormity of the moment. They’ve won on last-second touchdowns and field goals, and defending last-second throws into the end zone.
Well, they won’t if Georgia doesn’t let them have a lot of first half success, anyway. Job One means not letting them race out to an early lead.
Job Two means not making painful mistakes, like throwing two pick sixes. Remember, like Georgia against OSU, Michigan was in scramble mode for much of the game, and the Wolverines still wound up outgaining TCU in the course of scoring 45 points. The problem was their offense giving the Horned Frogs 14 points in a game they only won by six. (Georgia’s turnover only cost the Dawgs seven points in a game they won by one point.)
Job Three, I admit is pretty duh: let Todd Monken be Todd Monken.
The upshot for opposing defenses is that there is no focal point and no sound strategy to account for the multitude of options Monken throws at them. How do you defend a scheme that can shift seamlessly from grinding between the tackles to running the Air Raid with the same core personnel? If there’s an answer other than “have better players,” no one has found it against this lineup yet. The Bulldogs have averaged north of 6.0 yards per play in every game this season except their 16-6 slugfest at Kentucky in which they came in at a mere 5.6 ypp while attempting a season-low 19 passes.
Kentucky dared the Dawgs to pound out a living on the ground and they did, rushing for 247 yards in a game whose outcome was never in doubt. Ohio State took the opposite approach, holding Georgia to a pedestrian 147 rushing yards (excluding sacks) on a season-low 24 carries, and finally succeeded in the process in putting the outcome of a high-scoring game on the much-doubted right arm of Stetson Bennett IV; Bennett responded with one of the crowning nights of his career, bombing the Buckeyes for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns passing on 11.7 per attempt.
Since I think we’re all in agreement that TCU doesn’t have better players, that leaves me wondering which poison they pick to defend Georgia’s offense. As I mentioned last week, one of the key developments that came out of the Peach Bowl was the demise of the “Georgia can’t win a shootout with Stetson Bennett” narrative. That doesn’t mean it’s a lock tonight, but much like establishing at least a semblance of a running game helps to keep a defense honest, the Horned Frogs can’t simply march in assuming Bennett can’t make them pay for putting the offense on his shoulders. Especially now that we’ve seen what a healthy Mitchell and Smith can bring to the table.
Job Four is to defend Max Duggan differently than J.T. C.J. Stroud. Stroud didn’t pose much of a running threat during the season, so Georgia’s approach against him was to get pressure forcing him out of the pocket. That didn’t work so well much of the time because Stroud turned in a career game. In any event, one thing you can’t say about Duggan is that he isn’t a running threat. Duggan didn’t have a great passing game against Michigan, but made up for much of that on the ground.
Duggan’s mobility and all-purpose grit-itude carried over from the regular season in full. As a runner, he accounted for 63 yards, 2 touchdowns, 7 first downs and a 79% success rate, nearly offsetting his negative EPA through the air…
Georgia can’t have that, nor can it have Duggan burning them in scramble mode throwing the ball. That ought to mean an opposite approach than the one taken in the Peach Bowl; the Dawgs’ front has to keep Duggan bottled up in the pocket. Containment is a key and it’s something I’m a little nervous about, considering how far down into the roster barrel they had to scrape with defensive linemen and outside linebackers as the Peach Bowl wore on.
Job Five is pretty duh (mainly because it’s a standing priority under Kirby Smart), too, although there’s perhaps a wrinkle. Georgia needs to be successful, as they have been all season, defending the ground game. And, yes, TCU has one.
TCU isn’t a dominant rushing team, by any means, but at a shade over 200 yards per game it makes a perfectly decent living. The Frogs have been productive enough, consistently enough to remain viable on the ground every time out, and to keep Duggan out of desperate passing situations as a result. The more the playbook remains open, the more aggressive the offense can afford to be as the night wears on. Pulling off that dynamic against Michigan was a major achievement, especially after the resident workhorse, Miller, left the game with a knee injury in the first half. (Miller is questionable to play on Monday night, per his head coach — a potentially huge absence that seems only slightly less huge after Demercado went off for 150 yards on 8.8 per carry off the bench.) Sustaining it against Georgia, owner of the nation’s No. 1 run defense and No. 1 individual run stopper, herculean DT Jalen Carter, will be a final-boss-level test.
Double that if Miller can’t play or can’t play at the level he was at before last week. The potential wrinkle I hint at is, does TCU take a page out of last week’s game plan from Ryan Day and just say, screw it, we’re throwing the ball until Georgia shows us they can stop us? I don’t have the answer to that, but I don’t think it’s too unlikely a decision.
Job Six? Tackle in the secondary to limit explosive plays. Matt Hinton points out that Georgia’s defense actually did one thing pretty well in pass coverage against OSU.
The silver lining for the Dawgs was that, as scorched as they were at the end of the night, they didn’t give away anything for free: Ohio State never managed to get over the top of the coverage or slip a tackle en route to a breakaway gain in the open field. The Buckeyes’ longest play, a 37-yard touchdown strike from Stroud to reserve WR Xavier Johnson, exploited a mismatch in coverage (Johnson was matched against a linebacker, Jamon Dumas-Johnson, with predictable results) but still required a next-level throw from Stroud.
As a team, they averaged just 4.3 yards after catch, their lowest YAC effort of the season outside of a windy, waterlogged win at Northwestern.
Guess what TCU’s receivers do well?
TCU, as you might have guessed, thrives on YAC: Davis (9.4), Johnston (8.9) and Barber (7.7) all rank in the top 15 nationally in average yards after catch among Power 5 wideouts with at least 40 targets, per PFF. Give them a step and a sliver of daylight, and they might be gone.
Georgia can’t eliminate those windows of opportunity entirely, but it can make them tighter than any opposing defense the Frogs have faced to date, and slam them shut ASAP with sound open-field tackling. (And, ideally, by not asking an inside linebacker to run vertically with a slot receiver.) If putting points on the board comes down to Duggan’s ability to string together sustained scoring drives, that’s a bet the Bulldogs can live with.
Agreed. I have a hard time imagining Duggan can throw the ball at as high a level as Stroud did last week, so if Georgia’s defense can make TCU work its way down the field instead of burning them with a bunch of explosive plays (and by now I’m sure you’ve heard that TCU has 3 receivers averaging at least 13.5 yards per catch, and the Horned Frogs lead the nation in plays of 50 yards or more and are 2nd in plays of 40 yards or more), that’s an unequivocally positive thing.
Whew.
Listen, TCU is a good team. You don’t play in a national championship game without having a certain quality. And while they’re not the more talented team tonight, the question is whether they’re the better one. If Georgia does good work, they won’t be. I think the Dawgs do good work and cover.
A few more random thoughts:
- It sure would be nice if Darnell Washington played.
- Maybe we should keep an eye on TCU’s Darius Davis: “Davis is one of the nation’s most dangerous return men, with 5 career touchdowns on punt returns… The flip side of Davis’ explosiveness in the return game is his marginal ball security: PFF has him down for 5 career muffs.”
- Comfort factor #1: Michigan chased TCU and came up short; Georgia chased OSU and won.
- Comfort factor #2: Based on #1, this team has heard no end of taking TCU lightly from its head coach.
- Is it harder to repeat as national champs, or to come out of nowhere to win a national title for the first time?
Have at it in the comments.
Nice summary. The only thing I would say is having Darnell play would be nice if he’s healthy. To me, we have too many other options to have a gimpy player – even a great gimpy player – take the place of a healthy option. But that’s just me; whatever Kirby and Company choose is fine with me.
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If Darnell can’t go or is limited and you are going to replace him with Oscar Delp like in the Peach Bowl, I don’t think that he can just be a blocker like against OSU. There has to be some possibility that he is a danger to the defense so that they account for him.
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Better players, better coaches, etc… You know the drill.
The only thing that gives me pause is the weather. It will be raining all day there and even for game time. Does that mean we man ball it because of the conditions?
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Not unless it rains sideways. Place has a roof I’m almost certain.
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Ha! Looking it up now and you are right! I was thinking it was open air.
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Evidently it is covered AND open air…
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It’s the World’s Most Expensive Carport.
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Well it turns out it can rain in that stadium and the TCU fans were the recipient of it.
What a horribly designed facility.
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Composure
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I don’t think that Matt Hinton knows the meaning of “upshot.”
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C.J. Stroud, not J.T. Stroud, Senator
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Damn brain fart. Thanks for the catch.
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Yeah, I get him mixed up with JT Wall all the time.
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It’s official, paralysis by analysis of this game has set in, but one last weird stat comparison between our teams:
Dawgs are #1 in the nation in Offensive 4th Down Conversion %.
TCU is 122nd in 4th Down stops.
So, if any insurance is needed, plan D – we can still manball the damn chains.
7 hours until toe meets leather….lets go!!!
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We used up a season’s worth of lucky breaks vs OSU, so I expect a few to go against us tonight en route to a victory. That’s all I got.
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Oops. Didn’t mean this as a reply.
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OSU got the biggest break when PAC12 refs were named to do the game.
Change that and the Dawgs win easily.
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“Toe meets leather “? Old tech fan?
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Thanks Senator wish you were here!
It is raining already but think the roof will take care of that!
Gotta admit that horned frog is one badass mascot! But he is going down!
Go Dawgs GATA!
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Back in 2001 I went turkey hunting in west Texas with some buddies to add the Rio Grande to get my third subspecies. Ran across several Texas horned lizards while there. Very cool looking reptile for sure.
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Just do your gotdam job and you win, Dawgs.
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Run the Damn Ball and play Defense!
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For the Dawgs in LA, what are you getting into today? This rainy weather has a put a damper on going to the beach and the pre game options around the stadium are all uninspiring. Any Dawg gathering spots? Or just heading into Sofi early and drinking there?
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If I’m TCU I borrow from 4 games the Dawgs played. Be fast and physical early like Mizzou to throw us off, eat clock on offense like Kentucky, take your deep shots on mismatches like LSU and keep Duggan moving like Stroud. If capable this then becomes a game with both teams scoring less than 30. The Georgia offense would have to help with a lot of mistakes.
Out physical us? Eat clock by making 3rd downs? Keep us from scoring 30+? Just can’t see it. Dawgs fail to cover because of last minute TCU score, but Stet gets his Victory formation celebration one last time.
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I am most concerned about Duggan’s ability to run. Both on designed quarterback runs and scrambling. If we end up chasing him around like we did Stroud it will be a long night. We need pressure, but we need disciplined pressure with linemen staying in their lanes to keep Dugan contained as much as possible. On the positive side, their defense is most susceptible on the edges and in the seams. Two places Monken loves to exploit. If we play a clean first half, taking advantage of what TCU gives us, it could turn into one of those games where our defense slowly squeezes the life out its prey in the second half.
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My gut says we win easily. Just like my gut said we’d win easily against Alabama in the seccg, Kent state, mizzou and most recently Ohio State.
In short, my gut lies, to my face, all the time
I I guess I’m expecting Stetson to throw three pick sixes just to have one more than Michigan then going all big game 4th quarter Stetson on us as Georgia tries to mount a furious comeback, again. Which if we won would be pretty fitting for this team and QB because that’s kinda been how it’s gone all year: very sloppy and very dominant all at the same time.
Get your popcorn (and alcohol, lots and lots of alcohol) ready. Chapter 15 of the 2022 dawgs is of course gonna be one wild final ride. Go dawgs!!!!
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Methinks red-zone defense will be key for us.
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In short, my gut lies, to my face, all the time
Laughed at that…
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Meant to be a reply to Charlotte, obviously.
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Kind of cool that there is no game day post for the “other games” today! Everybody else is at home!
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I had a guy say “go gators” to me yesterday at the airport. I laughed and said “gators? They aren’t even playing tomorrow”.
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fwiw, a family member talked to Darnell at the BB game earlier in the week, and he said he was fine. He definitely wasn’t limiting or wearing any kind of brace.
I think UGA wins by 14+. The OSU game focused the fellas and we have too much talent. I think Duggan gets hit again and again and again.
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I come up with a 24 count swing against Michigan. There were the 2 pick sixes that added 13 points to TCU’s total. There was Michigan’s fumble on first and one at the half yard line that cost them 7 points. then they cost themselves 3 points by going for it on 4th and goal with that horse shit double reverse.
Georgia has a better team than Michigan.
Git er done DAWGS!
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14 points
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I can hear Munson right now “That clock just won’t move!”.
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Those who give us crap about our inner Munson obviously didn’t grow up listening to the best radio broadcaster college football has ever known. Nor can they appreciate what’s happened in Athens more recently in the same manner as we do. We watched Kirby play, we suffered through his tenure in Tuscaloosa and we welcomed him home. While we haven’t quite reached dynasty status, it truly rarefied air we’ve been breathing the last few years. UGA had two or three really incredible years with Herschel but that was a completely different experience. Herschel was essentially our entire offense and Erk was our entire defense. His players achieved what they did because Erk willed it into existence.
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‘RONG. I’m forty five years old. Listened to lots of Munson. That’s an excuse the Debbie Dow era and worry warts use to try and elevate it in some way. Nothing any of us does or says will affect this game. It’s time to go repeat and show everybody that like Clubber Lang we ain’t ever going away. Fuck that Munson shit. Put your big boy pants on folks. Go Dawgs.
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I’m not stupid enough to think anything I or any other fan says, thinks or feels will influence the outcome of a game. But you will never hear me say “fuck that Munson shit.” Could be because I have twenty years on you. Could be because I have nothing but respect and love for Larry Munson. In my option he’s as much a DGD as any player that ever wore the G.
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He is. But whining and worrying all the time is horse shot and putting his name on it is disrespectful to him. Back to back national champions. I enjoyed every single minute of it and did t waste a second being scared.
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I don’t give a damn about whether we cover. All I care about is having more points on the scoreboard when the clock strikes 0:00. If red & black confetti is falling from the roof tonight, I’m going to be happy.
If we give TCU our best shot, they have no chance. Dawgs 38-17.
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I’ve been thinking, if UGA were playing TCU in the regular season as a 13 point favorite would we be concerned? Don’t think I would.
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Nervous but confident. Nothing against the TCU players, but Kirby and I want to break them. Dawgs roll early and late.
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Loran just said on the pregame radio show just said that even if we win tonight, Stetson can not be inducted to the CFHOF because he never made 1st team All-American.
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For those of us watching at home… What stream are ya’ll watching tonight? Any recommendations?
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Still going to sync UGA radio with ESPN main telecast. Skycast too confusing for the Mrs. and the SECN Hometown broadcast shrinks the damn view of the field down too much.
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Not buying it. Gonna be a tight game until I see otherwise. Saban said earlier that he thought the Bullard hit was targeting. What a butt sore loser. Enjoy the view from the press box!
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If we score on our first drive in the Peach Bowl, I think it goes differently. Win the toss, take the ball, and run it up! That simple! 🤣🤣
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Fuck these motherfuckers.
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I see Tebow wearing a purple blazer on the ESPN pregame show. Saban is sporting a purple tie. Wonder who they’re hoping will win?
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Turns out Saban says Georgia wins by dominating the line of scrimmage and Corso picks TCU. Of course Lee picked Michigan and Ohio State last week. Let’s hope his streak of bad picks continues.
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Saban getting a 2 hour Alabama commercial on ESPN
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IMO, for TCU to have even a puncher’s chance, everything has to go their way. If they don’t score 7 on their first drive, the game is over. They will have all their advantages on the first drive and we will have not made any adjustments. We stop them on their first drive, the route is on.
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Damn if you didn’t nail it, gurkha.. (I typed this at the half).
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Thanks man.
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Granddaddy Big 0 looking light on his Size 16 feet. That makes me feel good.
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Oh, and in the wild horny toads squirt blood from their eyes when threatened. Let’s try to replicate that on this L.A. gridiron.
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WON THE COIN TOSS AGAIN !
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That’s my QB1!
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Gawd, I love this Offense.
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The DBs on the other hand……
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You had a nice run TCU, but this game’s over.
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GATA !!
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Busted coverage.
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Have a feeling the DBs are gonna get coached up a bit…
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Bullard looks like a trainwreck. (But had that heads-up fumble recovery)
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Need t simplify. They’re looking lost on that entire series.
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I WANT TO WASH TODD MONKEN’S CAR.
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Topless.
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Pretty good 1Q for those average ass dudes.
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Post of the Quarter!
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Dawgs looking damn good.
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That non-PI was brought to you by the Blind Refs Association of America and the Competence-Optional Officiating Union.
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CTM is the best OC since George Washington.
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I don’t mean to take anything away from Todd monken but we look so much faster and stronger than TCU so far, I feel like I could call plays and they’d work
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I WANT TO WASH SB IV’S CAR…. !
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Bottomless.
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Hold on there Champ. Why don’t you stop talkin’ there for a bit…
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Hell no! We’re going to third base with whomever Lone Stranger mentions next.
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I slid head first into third base
She was not pleased
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Mine enjoyed it! Lol
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Yeeeeeah, I’m going to move to the other side of the room. It’s getting weird over here.
😉
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Can we please stop with the short returnable kickoffs?
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Holding? What is this you speak of?
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(I retract my Bullard criticism) 😉
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KMac looks like he got another gear.
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FUCKN BOWERS !!!
WOOOOOOOOO!!!
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We’re approaching “Stetson Bennett hates Australians” territory again.
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🤣😂
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Joe who award?
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#19 is good.
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13 84 and 6 ain’t too bad.
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Hey Kirby, you gonna trash Stet at the half? Bennett is the best QB in America?
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Didn’t mean for the second sentence to be a question. It is a statement of fact.
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Gotdam right!
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Great. We get to hear nick saban again at halftime. Lovely
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WOOOOOO!
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(I retract my Bullard criticism) 😉 x2
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“Legs up in the air like your mama at the after party.”
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Dawgs 38 – Bullard 7 – TCU 0
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Aloha TCU!
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100% sure the team will still get an ass chewing at the half.
Always.
Be.
Coaching.
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Delivered to you by Mitch & Murray.
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So do we come out in the second half and simply smother TCU with defense or do we keep our foot on the gas like we did with Oregon? I’m hoping for the latter
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Dawgs need to turn it up to eleven. Send the League bound boys out with a bang.
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Shit, start next season early in the 4th quarter.
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Aggression.
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HBTMFD!?!?!
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HBTMFD!!!
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Kick Tebow out and put Stetson into the 2023 CHOF Class with CMR.
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Can I be the one who tells Erik Ainge the halftime score?
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He won’t see… he’s driving Uber right now….
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Post of the day!
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BREAKING….Metchie and Williams are out for TCU.
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Really like.
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Hahahahahahahahaha!
Bunch of losers.
https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/this-is-what-a-paid-for-multi-million-dollar-college-team-looks-like.113745/
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BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!
Fuck those piss-their-pants drooling pussies.
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#FTMF
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David Pollard broke it off in Saban at the half.
DP delivered a zinger when he told Saban that UGA was now the biggest thing (my paraphrase) or the Gold Standard (something like that) in CFB. Saban just looked down at the table because…wtf was he going to say back?
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Go ahead and have YOU a game Stet!! 👀
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Likin a lot of y’all’s posts, but my like button don’t work.
I’m thinking if we score on the first possession of the second half, we might just win this fucker! About to have a tall bourbon. Enjoy this guys!
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Log out and back in to WP.
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TCU fans are probably wishing they’d booked their flights out to LA on southwest right about now
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The Southern Co. just announced a huge load decrease on their power grid as Bama, GT, UT and FU fans all turned off their TVs and went to bed at halftime.
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We’re makin the South more green.
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My Inner Munson’s is nice and quiet for now. To borrow a phrase, finish the drill, Dawgs.
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Nice reference.
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I swear I just heard Got Sr. and Munson click glasses…
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Damn skippy
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“Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the manball portion of tonights entertainment.”
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Stetson Bennett is the greatest college QB since Moses.
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Moses has ZERO SEC championships.
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Facts emerge.
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Flight from Texas $500. LA hotel $600. SoFi tickets $1500. Leaving in the 3rd Q…priceless.
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That redeye the wife was going to take home?
Probably sitting on the tarmac all night weather delay.
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At what point in a national championship game is it considered running up the score? Asking for TCU
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30 minutes ago!
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12 minute 4th quarter?
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We gotta do something about this Bennett guy, he’s killin us. Please put in one of our 5 stars!
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Stetson. Fucking. Bennett.
Legend.
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The MVP trophy engraver debating whether to add “IV” since “Fucking” is taking up so much space. 🤣
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I swear the ref just said “Nice throw” to Stet and he said “Thank you”. LMFAO
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Dugan ain’t outrunning the Dawgs D around the end like he did those slow boys in the BIG whatevers.
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Tomorrow’s headline from all the Erik’s: Bennett benched to finish his career.
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Can we claim the B1G championship too?
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Stetson fucking Bennett
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Kirby’s second greatest timeout! SBIV DGD!
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Best. Curtain. Call. Ever.
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Jerked a tear.
What a journey…what a DAWG!
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Hey, Bluto! Now, it’s time to talk dynasty.
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I said I wasn’t going to be magnanimous when the Dawgs won that first National Championship and I wasn’t. But here’s what I have to say on the brink of the second National Championship to the gators, the vols, Clemson and especially the Gumps:
Suck my Ranger dick and kiss my Georgia Bulldog ass.
Fuck all you motherfuckers. I’m breaking out the good stuff.
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RangerRuss is BRINGING IT TONIGHT!! He’s on fire!
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Erk approves.
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Do it Ranger! I already did!
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Yeah, I’m not responsible for what happens from here on out. Like button doesnt work, so consider a like on all your posts from me……
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5 consecutive post-season MVP trophies. A record that won’t be broken.
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The pundits spent too much time breaking this game down. Anybody have a list of predictions and who made them?
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Iron me a shirt Auerbach had TCU.
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The receipts, they have been kept.
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Kirby pulls the seniors on D. Sorry Saban…new GOAT in town!
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Pollack rubbing Saban’s face in it is HOF ownage.
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How bout them Dawgs!!
Stetson Bennett, the GOAT.
We’re not worthy!
What a run and what a time to be a Dawg.
Thank you, Kirby Smart!
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Well said!
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The battle of Little Bighorn wasn’t this lopsided.
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My God, a freshman!
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Pod’s getting tired. Can’t blame him.
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Three-peat in 23!
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Kirby’s using the 4th quarter to make the case for next year.
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This is obscene now.
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At this point, I almost hope Coach30 lays off of them…
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RR called it earlier today.
Munson can finally RIP.
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Big ol ass whoopn!
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The game hasn’t been as close as the score.
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How Bout them Motherfucking Dawgs?
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In honor of SBIV, even the walk ons are going to get to play.
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We said it all on the field tonight and all season. My team. My school. Best in the land. Life is good.
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Amen, Rev…amen!
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I don’t know what is more unbelievable. Last year, Last Week, or tonight? HBTFD!!!
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DAWGS WIN!
DAWGS WIN!
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I said it’s great to be a Georgia Bulldog
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Back to back Fuckers! How Bout Them Dawgs!!!
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Get em, Uncle Got, get em…this is an awesome night…best I’ve ever seen
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Walked out on the deck…heard a “Goooo Dawgs!!!” from across the lake. I Hollered “Sic ’em”
“WOOOF WOOF WOOF”
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Fucking A Froze: It’s great to be a Georgia Bulldog!!!
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Hell, I’m just glad we covered the spread…muhahahahah
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Hell we covered the Over on our on!
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Stetson Fleming Bennett IV: the Greatest QB in UGA history.
What does the Mailman do? The Mailman does deliver.
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No doubt!
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He always RINGS TWICE !
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So happy for Stetson, almost forgot….
BACK 2 BACK NATIONAL CHAMPIONS BITCHEZ!!!
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Unbelievable. Congrats Dawgs – you’re men among boys.
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IMG_7291.jpeg
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Tonight is what happens when the irresistible force and the immovable object wear the same jerseys and helmets.
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Well I guess I’m going to have to go and buy some new repeat swag this week. Oh well…
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I love you all. GO DAWGS
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I love you too, Double H!
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WOOOOOOO!
OG Junkyard Dog tune!
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Scorched. Earth.
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