Matt Melton has his SDPI analysis of the SEC up now and, as usual, it’s pretty interesting. Just to refresh your memory, here’s how he runs the calculations:
… In the 2009 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2757.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 362.41 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 421.56 yards. Georgia gained 2867 yards and allowed 3035 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.30 = [(2867-2757.583)/362.41]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.66 = [(2757.583-3035)/421.56]. Their total SDPI was -0.36. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.
The big thing that he’s looking at is yardage, not points. So even though he’s focusing on regular season conference games, in which the Dawgs tied for the conference lead in points per game with Arkansas, that’s why Georgia has a pedestrian ranking on offense.
Here’s the conference snapshot:
Quite a few things to take from that…
- The Hat may have done a better coaching job last season than people gave him credit for.
- On the other hand, the Nuttster sure pissed away a lot of production.
- Based on those numbers, it really is hard to come up with a more embarrassing loss last season than Georgia’s to Kentucky.
- For all the Nick Saban, genius talk, I’m sure not going to miss Charlie Strong.
- Nice defense you got there, Arkansas.
- Same to you with that offense, Vanderbilt. There’s a bigger gap between 12th and 11th than there is between 1st and 9th. Epic bad.
- When you factor turnover margin into the equation, those Ole Miss SDPI numbers are truly amazing. You also have to wonder how our old friend regression to the mean impacts Arkansas this year.
And if you think there’s little relevance between an SEC program’s success and the number of players it produces for the NFL draft, you may want to take a look at this post at MrSEC.com. There’s a pretty fair correlation between the two over the past decade, as Pennington summarizes:
… Those teams (except Tennessee) that produced 50+ picks all won right around 75% of their games… and they each won multiple SEC titles.
Alabama and Auburn produced 30+ picks and both won an SEC crown. Auburn won at a near 70% clip which gives a lot of credence to the idea that Tommy Tuberville knew how to “coach players up.”
Those schools churning out 20+ prospects all won in the 50% range. And those that produced fewer than 20 all won between about 30-40%.
He concludes by noting that we may want to count heads on 2011 draft projections to see which schools are likely to find success in 2010.