I usually save my SEC win predictions for the end of summer camp, when I’ve got a decent picture of likely starters, so if you’re looking for an earlier discussion on the matter, Jerry Hinnen’s post will have to suffice.
It’s filtered through Vegas over/under win totals, so if you think scheduling is outsized in his analysis, that’s a good reason why.
Then again, it’s hard to argue with this:
… has anyone actually looked at the Tide’s Charmin-soft schedule? Unless Virginia Tech is a revelation or Gus Malzahn is a wizard, it’s a three-game season: at Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss, vs. LSU. The Tide have byes before the Aggies and Tigers, and bracket the Rebels with Georgia State and Kentucky. So a 3-0 sweep seems more likely than not, and the heavy extra payout on the over makes this an even easier call.
Although note that Steele finds Alabama’s schedule tougher than most do.
I do find Jerry’s leanings on Florida’s and Georgia’s win totals interesting, given that of the key games for each he points to for each, Florida’s looks tougher, yet he turns ever so slightly in the Gators’ favor on getting that tenth win. As for the third leg of the SEC East’s triumvirate, both Steele and I think Carolina’s schedule is tougher than Jerry does.
Anyway, I thought this would be a fun topic for discussion… so discuss. How do you see those win totals playing out?