You can’t stop conference expansion. You can only hope to contain it.

Berry Tramel asks a series of reasonable questions about why the fevered pitch over Oklahoma President David Boren’s suggestion that the Big 12 needs to be considering expanding to twelve schools.

Why? Why does the Big 12 have to flounder with only 10 schools? That’s not a rhetorical question. That’s not me being sarcastic, trying to make a case against expansion. It’s a legitimate question.

Why can’t the Big 12 thrive with 10 schools? What would two schools add, especially two imperfect-fit schools, which are the only kind available at the moment? Again, dead-serious question. What would 12 provide that 10 doesn’t?

He explores various answers to the questions and finds most of them come up lacking.  (Not that that’s hard to do when this is what the current expansion pool looks like:  “As many as nine schools have been mentioned as Big 12 expansion targets. Western independent Brigham Young. Boise State and Colorado State from the Mountain West Conference. Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, South Florida, Central Florida and Houston from the American Conference.”)

But the reality is not that.  It’s about eat or be eaten. It’s what Todd Berry, the incoming president of American Football Coaches Association, describes here, in response to a question about whether more conference expansion is coming:

“I think that there will be. I don’t think there’s any question that right now with power 5 autonomy it is going to drive some very, very interesting things over the next several years for all of college football. When you start looking at the amount of money that’s being generated by the playoff, and more than likely we’ll see the playoff expand, I would assume, just because there’s more money out there to be had. That’s kind of what’s driving this thing. The conference commissioners, I think in particular, are really, really in control of college football. There was a time frame when the presidents decided they wanted to take it over, then they kind of punted and the ADs took over. Now the conference commissioners are really driving the bus. So yeah, I think there’s going to be another wave (of realignment.) I think that those people that are in preparation for that that are being a bit more proactive are in a lot better position. Now obviously the power 5 is going to be what it is, but I think there’s going to be members of the group of 5 that are going to try and make that jump and make that transition that are going to be appealing to power 5 schools. If this thing does eventually end up being a new classification, which I think it probably will be, there’s some teams in the group of 5 that are probably in the mix and deserving and have the financial resources to be able to make a push along those lines. So yeah, I think we’re probably in that mode right now where everybody’s in that posturing mode like they were five years ago when all of a sudden this thing started shaking up a little bit.”  [Emphasis added.]

The presidents have abdicated their role in the process because it’s all about the money now and the conference commissioners are less burdened by non-monetary considerations than they are.  Just remember that the next time one of them starts bleating about making sure that a school is an academic match for an expanding conference.  (Let’s not forget that West Virginia was the last school admitted to Boren’s conference.)  Because that’s nothing more than an irrelevant sideshow.  The SEC Network ain’t broadcasting history classes, peeps.

19 Comments

Filed under College Football, It's Just Bidness

19 responses to “You can’t stop conference expansion. You can only hope to contain it.

  1. Kind of like reading about personal hygiene – necessary but slightly nauseating.

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  2. 16-team conferences are unworkable even with a 9-game schedule because of permanent crossover games. The day we lose the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry and the 3rd Saturday in October in exchange for UGA-Mizzou and Bama-TAMU is the day my love affair with college football ends. The only way that works for the playoff is to have 4 conferences of 16. A Power 5 doesn’t work unless the playoff expands to 8, and that number brings wildcards into the playoff mix. The day that happens is the day the regular season begins its slide into irrelevance. Also, who’s going to force Notre Dame into a conference for football given their contract with NBC?

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    • Macallanlover

      Disagree. Go to four 16 team conferences and limit the major bowls and CFB playoff to teams coming from those conferences and ND will have to join to be relevant. Recruits will fall off and viewership will be the Northeastern Irish fan who really doesn’t like CFB anyway. I don’t care what their NBC deal is, the falloff will doom them. Now that may be the only thing that makes them join a conference but under this scenario they either fold their cards and join, or go the ay of the doo-doo bird.

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      • Mac, are you ready to give up the Auburn game for a 16-team conference? I’m not. Also, which conference is going to collapse to get to 4? I just can’t see either the Big 12 or the ACC going under in today’s world. The Irish can continue to exist and thrive as an independent as long as there is a Power 5.

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    • Mayor

      You’ve put your finger (the middle one I hope) on the future, ee. They are going to expand the playoff. I thought at one time we were going to 4 conferences with 16 teams each but now, with the move to no longer require a minimum of 12 teams and 2 divisions to hold a conference championship game, I don’t think so. It will be 8 teams, next 16 teams, then 32. Before the end of it all major conference members will be in a playoff game of some sort (play-in, etc.).

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      • Mayor

        Let me expand on what I mean. When I was in HS you had to win your region championship to get into the Georgia state championship playoff in football. That produced some results that some people considered unfair, like a team being 9-1 and not making it when another team was 7-3 and did make it. So they expanded the number. Now you have the situation almost every year where some team gets into the Georgia HS Football playoffs with a 4-6 record by finishing second in their region. A couple of years ago that 4-6 entry got hot, had a good bracket for them and made it to the finals, as I recall. WTF did the regular season even mean? We are going to see this same sort of thing in college football soon. If the playoff expands to 32 teams and I fear that is where it is ultimately headed (at minimum–maybe more) the entire season will be about eliminating half (or less) of the major teams from the “playoff.” See the NBA.

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        • PTC DAWG

          That 4-6 team you speak of played 4 teams from higher classifications too…sometimes the lower classification teams have no other choices, some of them are in very small regions.

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          • I still like the old days of Georgia high school playoffs where you had to win your region to make it to the state playoffs. The South Georgia and North Georgia champions played for it all. I saw some region 1-AAA championship grudge matches back in the day with Worth Co (my HS alma mater), Cairo, Thomasville and Thomas County Central that were as hotly contested as the state championship.

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      • Mayor, I hate conference expansion especially the way the SEC expanded. There are 8 team playoff scenarios that make sense, but that requires conference realignment that no one could stomach into 8 10-team leagues with 5-team divisions to create competitive balance. At that point, a de facto 16-team playoff with the conference championship games.

        Any solution that includes wildcards is flawed and would cheapen the best regular season in sports, but I’m afraid that’s exactly where this is headed.

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  3. The other Doug

    If someone approached Oklahoma about switching conferences. You know, just feeling them out. How would Oklahoma react if they wanted to stay in the BIG12? I’d guess be proactive in strengthening the conference.

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    • W Cobb Dawg

      The Big 12 would be aptly named ‘Texas and the 9 dwarves’. What makes Texas Tech, Baylor or Iowa State more deserving of a major conference berth than schools like Colorado State, Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, UCF, etc., etc.

      Of course vile Boren is absolutely right. If the big 12 is going to remain in the big picture of cfb, they better add 2 more teams p.d.q. Otherwise, get used to being the 5th wheel when the playoff selection committee starts weeding out teams.

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      • Mayor

        Not if the NCAA let’s them have a conference championship game without 12 or more teams, Westy. All the Big 12 has to do is let the 2 highest ranked teams play a postseason game at Jerry World and that solves their problem. The winner moves up in the polls and likely gets a playoff spot. Plus the Big 12 doesn’t have to split the money from all the TV, bowl, conference championship game and playoff games revenue so many ways. This idea simply works better on so many levels financially. That’s why they want to do it.

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  4. I really don’t get the Oklahoma love from the SEC members. What would the conference gain by adding them? Oklahoma City is just the 44th largest TV market (1 spot behind Birmingham) and Tulsa is just 60th.

    Maybe adding the Sooners helps solidify the Dallas market but I really think Oklahoma is pushing expansion for the Big12 to gauge UT’s commitment. They would be much better served inviting CSU and UCF or possibly Nevada/BYU.

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