So, Barrett Sallee has a post up about potential snagging points in Georgia’s path to Atlanta. As far as it goes, it’s not a crazy list. But there are a couple of items on there that he, along with others, have raised that I question, at least a little bit.
First, there’s this.
Of all of the teams in the SEC East, Georgia got perhaps the worst draw of any team.
The Bulldogs draw Alabama out of the SEC West in addition to the traditional cross-division rivalry with Auburn. Those two teams were picked to finish first and second in the SEC West by the members of the media at media days, respectively, with the Tigers pegged as the overall conference champion.
‘Bama is ‘Bama. I get that. But when does Richt get credit for handling Auburn the way he has over the past few seasons? Auburn’s got two wins in the modern “Mark Richt sux” era, neither of which was exactly dominating. Meanwhile, Georgia can claim more than one rout in its set of victories over that period. None of which is to dismiss Auburn’s chances, obviously. But I think Georgia’s entitled to go into that game not wetting its pants.
But speaking of ‘Bama and pants wetting, read this and despair.
On top of that, the Bulldogs have to travel to Knoxville to play Tennessee—which was picked second in the SEC East—the week after facing the Crimson Tide in Athens. SEC teams are 10-13 the week after playing Nick Saban’s squad over the last four years, with three of those wins coming against out-of-conference competition.
Ooh, automatic trap game!
Not to say that the close way the Vols have played Georgia the last two season doesn’t make me nervous, but the Alabama hangover is a little overrated there. Some of those 23 games were played by some pretty bad teams – it may be hard to believe now that every coach in the West is making bank, but just a few short years ago, Ole Miss and Arkansas stunk – and a bunch of those next week games came against ranked opponents. I can’t say the Dawgs will be dominant this season, but I’m pretty confident they’ll win more games than they’ll lose. And if Tennessee is a ranked opponent, it’s going to mean wins against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas before Georgia rolls into Knoxville. We’ll see about that.
Besides, let’s not forget the Alabama hangover cuts both ways. Tennessee has to play at Kentucky the week after its Alabama meeting, and I have it on good authority that the Wildcats won’t suck this season.
Get The Picture 
Wins and losses in league play are a zero sum game. 10-13 is a statistical break even. I’m a little surprised someone saw this and then thought it was meaningful to publish it.
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Florida played Alabama and then went into Knoxville the following week and beat U10….last season.
And SEC teams were 5-2 last year after playing Alabama.
But Stats!!!
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I looked at 2013 too…shocking, but the good teams Bama played (Texas AM and LSU) won their game after Bama…the bad teams (like Arky, Tennessee, Ole Miss) lost their games after Bama.
It’s almost as if winning and losing has to do more with being a good or bad team than playing Bama the week before. 🙂
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A truly shocking revelation ain’t it?
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I seem to remember TAMU doing OK after their big upset in 2012 as well…and Ole Miss last season (well, until they all started getting injured).
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This stat from Sallee was posted on another blog yesterday. I did some digging and found a couple of things.
1) The 10-13 thing makes no sense given each SEC team plays 8 SEC games. Over 4 years that would equal 32 games (not 23). Being that the last game of the season has no game the following week (except when Bama and Auburn play and then Auburn plays in the SECCG) there should be 30 games in this set. I may have missed some bye weeks but the point remains…..Its basically 50-50.
2) The only reason he includes 4 years is because that’s how long it takes to get to a losing record! Teams were 5-2 last year after playing Bama, 4-4 in 2013 and 3-4 in 2012. It takes the 2-5 record from 2011 to make the point Sallee had already reached before starting his research! Those numbers add up to 14-15 (again, I’m sure I missed some bye weeks that are leading to a different total number of games but the point remains that its still basically 50-50 and that’s only because he went back far enough to get to that!
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Good work. It takes that awful gnawing feeling and puts it right for the upcoming season. I’ll watch for your input in the future. A lot of this pome d’ Rue these guys concoct is ready for some sharp minds and pencils. Sometimes they are like the Republicans of the sports world trying to frighten fans to their way of false thinking.
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Because Dems are all stalwart crusaders for the public good who would never use tactics like fear-mongering for so base a purpose as getting votes.
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Guess alcohol isn’t the only substance that kills brain cells, nothing like standing up for the guys flying this country into the ground. I am no Republican, but I vote for anyone running against a D just to buy some time. Evil, pure evil.
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Those Alabama writers sure have inflated opinions of their local teams.
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I agree, Missouri’s West draw is Miss State and at Arkansas. Tennessee gets Arkansas and at Bama. South Carolina gets LSU and goes to A&M. Our Bama/Auburn draw is maybe a little tougher than Missouri and Tennessee’s. The Cocks is just as tough as ours IMO. Regardless, none of the East contenders are getting a pass.
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I suspect that teams that play Arkansas will have a tough time the next week.
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Best to worst draw:
Mizzou – I’m not sold on the Bizarro Dogs and the Hogs. State has Dak Prescott but not sure they have much else. Arky hasn’t proven they can throw the ball with any consistency under Bert.
USCe – LSU will be tough if the Mad Hatter finds a QB. A&M is finding out how difficult it can to run the Air Raid in the SEC.
UTK – The Bama game is a loss, period. The Vowels have had trouble defending the run, and Arky can run the ball.
UGA – Bama in Athens is possibly the regular season game of the year in the SEC. If you believe the pundits, we’ll have our hands full on the Plains.
Don’t forget UF. They are talented and can beat anyone on any given Saturday.
If we play well enough to sweep the East, I think we’ll split the Bama/AU games at worst, and be in Atlanta.
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Can one of you millennials do a parody about Trap Games to the tune of Trap Queen? It would be YouTube smash.
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Or one of the old farts could do one to Foreigner’s “Head Games”.
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Thought that was a porn tune.
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If we sweep the east, we can lose both Bama/AU games and we will still be in Atlanta. No one in the east will sweep their western opponents this year IMO.
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Sorry Brandon, but I have to disagree. Mizzou can certainly beat Missy State which lost a hell of a lot off last season’s team and an Arky team with no passing attack. If Georgia loses to Mizzou it will be really tough for the Dawgs to make it to the Georgia Dome.
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If Georgia loses to Mizzou then we didn’t sweep the East!
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I think the Mayor’s point is that Mizzou can get to the Dome if they only lose to us in conference if we sweep the East but lose the games to Bama and the Barn. Think USCe in 2011.
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Much better put than my feeble attempt, ee.
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DAWG grading at its best.
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Traps game talk. Yaaawwwwwnnnnnnn……………………………..
And if Tennessee is a ranked opponent, it’s going to mean wins against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas before Georgia rolls into Knoxville. We’ll see about that.
As to Vols being ranked come UGA week, they can lose any one of those games and will almost certainly still be ranked.
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I don’t see Tennessee able to compete with Oklahoma unless the Sooners turn the ball over and give UT a chance to stay in the game. Tennessee hasn’t beaten Florida anywhere in a decade and has only beaten the Gators twice in Gainesville since college football began (1990). Florida is 25-9 against Tennessee since 1954. Arkansas’s running game will be a tough out for the UT defense especially if they lose in what will be a hot, physical game in the Swamp.
If Sgt. Carter is 2-3 on October 10 with games against Georgia and Alabama ahead of him, he may be a dead man walking to the Tennessee faithful.
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Don’t see Mizzou capable of only one SEC loss. Arkansas is at least as good as Mizzou, and see them at 4-2 in the East. Who knows? I still haven’t figured out how they got A&M and TN to take a dive last year.
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Mac, I agree but they have won games when they have had to. We have no one but ourselves and that damn cow pasture in Knoxville (in ’13) to blame.
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The Vols won’t be ranked if they lose all three, which is what I am predicting.
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They could lose all three,but more likely two losses before we go to Knox. They will have their back against the wall. Most likely a 7-5 team but one game either way wouldn’t be a surprise.
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Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, and Kentucky – any of them could give us a lot to handle next year. Don’t count out South Carolina, either – their coach is plenty pissed that people are calling him a washed up geezer – there’s going to be some tired, sweaty chickens at practices in Columbia this year.
This next season is difficult to call – lots of talent but 8-4 would not shock me atall.
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Barrett Sallee is a bitch w an inferiority complex. First Wheeler , the Auburn. Poor bastard.
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