Bill Connelly notes that Malzahn’s rabbit’s foot hasn’t made it back to his pocket yet.
Opponents have fumbled seven times so far, but Auburn has recovered only one. Combined with Johnson’s seemingly bad luck, the god of bounces hasn’t been kind to the Tigers. (Those who remember 2013 might call this fair.)
Based on fumbles and the ratio of INTs to passes broken up, Auburn’s expected turnover margin so far has been plus-2.3. Auburn’s actual turnover margin has been minus-3, a difference of 5.3. Turnovers are worth about five points on average, so you could say turnovers luck has cost Auburn about 13 points in each game so far.
As Bill notes, some of what’s ailed Auburn early is fixable. But you can’t fix luck.
Get The Picture 
Aww. Too bad.
LikeLike
It’s funny how the wheel has turned in the way turnovers are looked at. I remember being accosted in the comments a number of years ago for suggesting that while quarterback decision making has a big impact on turnovers that luck is still the biggest factor.
LikeLike
It’s a little more subtle than that. Bill ran some numbers a while back that showed a tendency for a defense to have a greater likelihood of recovering a fumble the closer it occurred to the quarterback. Which makes sense when you think about it.
LikeLike
I think the way luck is measured on interceptions is flawed. All defended passes are not created equal. If you throw a pass that hits a defender in the hands it is a lot more likely to picked off than a pas thrown into single coverage where the cornerback rakes the ball out. In the former scenario, I would expect half, maybe 60%, of the passes to be intercepted.
LikeLike
If throwing the football directly to a wide open linebacker is bad luck, then yes, JJ has had bad luck.
LikeLike
Johnson for Heisman. I like drivin in my truck. Karma is a Bitch.
LikeLike
I would argue that, given how they’ve managed to win their first two games, Auburn’s devil magic/luck is still in full force.
LikeLike
No question the fumble recovery/loss rate is impacted by a good deal of luck and the way a ball bounces. What I don’t understand is “Johnson’s seemingly bad luck”, I think he has another 3-4 INTs that were avoided by defenses dropping passes. When he plays better defensive fronts he may see an increase in his poor choices. I hope to see LSU throw some more dirt on this program on Saturday.
LikeLike
^^This. Louisville should have won and JAX State had them dead to rights but yet the Barners are 2-0. They should be 0-2.
LikeLike
The rabbit’s foot was in full view when the Jacksonville State punter shanked that 17 yard punt near the end of the 4th. Just an average punt would have burnt down the Barn.
LikeLike
Man some Auburn fans are already calling for Gus’ head. Fickle bunch that group.
LikeLike
Watch out Aubums though, the 2013 games of their SEC champ team if you look back is full of that so called luck (squeakers) too, highlighted by their games against the Dawgs and Bama. Whether this will last, we have to see.
LikeLike
Somewhere in East Alabama, a three-legged rabbit is laughing his ass off.
LikeLike
That’s good stuff right there +1 🙂
LikeLike
Gus is a 8-5/9-4 coach. Other than the Cam year and two of the luckiest plays in the history of college football what has he really done? In 2013 they should have lost to Miss St/LSU/UGA/Bama instead of being in the MNC game
LikeLike
Let’s also not forget that we had to play the barn two years in a row at their cow pasture…
LikeLike