Did Georgia overachieve last season?

Well, maybe a little.

… This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage…

And here are the APR standings sorted by division with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

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Finally, SEC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

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Okay, it’s not huge, but it’s closer to an extra win than not.  What it really makes you wonder is how the year might have gone if Richt had committed from the beginning to the grind it out approach he took after the Florida game.

The other interesting part of Matt’s piece is what he devotes to his Florida analysis.  If he’s right, Jim McElwain had better be praying to the football gods that UF avoids regression to the mean on the turnover margin front in 2016.

14 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

14 responses to “Did Georgia overachieve last season?

  1. Barring incredible luck, Florida will finish no better than third in the East this year. Their recruiting has tanked and they don’t have a qb.

  2. Hogbody Spradlin

    Pythagoras is rolling over in his grave.

  3. PTC DAWG

    Richt’s team was scared of Florida…it is about that simple..UGA played terrible down there, even our pretty good teams continually failed to show up.

    • Russ

      He was 5-7 over the last 12 games. 5-5 before the last two fiascos. He had a lot of inertia to overcome (1-11 I believe before he got here).

      Still lots of room for improvement but he was better than before.

  4. UGA85

    If you break down individual games, it’s hard to come up with an instance where I feel we overachieved. SC maybe? Maybe Auburn? But underachieving is easy to see in multiple games, from Florida to Southern, Bama, even Tech. I just don’t see an impressive win against a good opponent. But it’s over now. Ready to move on.

    • Uglydawg

      My thoughts exactly 85.

    • W Cobb Dawg

      Agree. Anyone arguing we overachieved didn’t watch the games. MOST of the time we had a well coached D, a poorly coached O, and uncoached STs.

    • Jared S.

      Agreed. We might have over-achieved in the W column (statistically, according to this one measure) but there was plenty of under-achieving going on last season. The Florida and Bama games were embarrassing. We didn’t even look like we belonged in the SEC.

  5. Sh3rl0ck

    I know you like your “advanced stats”, but… just damn. Georgia lost to every team it played that had a higher APR. Its five wins were against, #10, 11, 12, 13, and 14. That is not over-achieving. It is just evidence that the SEC East was and Auburn were terrible last year.