Danielson on the Cocktail Party

Gary Danielson certainly has his share of flaws, but I appreciate his game analysis.  Here are a few early observations he has about Georgia-Florida.

He sure loves Eason’s arm.

He’s right that neither of these offenses qualifies as dynamic.  Barring a weird turn of events — my usual caveat about turnovers applies, as always — this won’t be a high scoring game.  Can the Gators shut Georgia out, though?  I guess that’s up to Jim Chaney.

Florida has those terrific corners, so I expect to see plenty of single coverage.  That’s a recipe for disaster if the Dawgs decide to come out in power formations and run the ball, because it’ll be an invitation to throw those safeties into run support and clog the line of scrimmage, something that’s been a winning approach throughout the season for opposing defenses.

Of course, with the way this season has gone, Chaney will probably find a way to do just enough on offense to have the game come down to special teams play.  Winning!

77 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football

77 responses to “Danielson on the Cocktail Party

  1. 3rdandGrantham

    As mentioned earlier, I strongly feel we are going to win this game. Call it a hunch or whatever, but when my gut is this strong about us winning, we typically do.

    Oh great…I just jinxed us for sure…

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    • Mad Mike

      Nah dude, what’ll jinx us is if Corso picks us to win. Everybody knows that! 😉

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    • David K

      I can’t see anyone who has watched this game for the past 25 years having a hunch or gut feeling Georgia wins. When we won 3 in a row a few years back I started to feel better about the series, but then the 2014 and 2015 games happened and I feel like we’re snakebit in this game. Even if we have the better team (which we absolutely don’t this year) I go in expecting a loss.

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      • 3rdandGrantham

        This is one of the very rare occasions where I had a positive hunch going into any UGA-UF game. After attending my first UGA-UF game as a student back in ’96 (something like a 47-7 loss, which felt more like 77-7), I’ve been scarred and pretty much negatively warped ever since.

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        • David K

          The 2014 game killed me. It will be a while before I feel good about us getting a win. I went down there expecting an ass kicking victory lap. We had the East wrapped up and the Gators had already quit on Muschamp. That game absolutely started the gears turning towards Richt deservedly getting fired.

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          • LC

            100% agree. That game was a massive air out of the balloon moment and infinitely worse than last year’s debacle in terms of impact.

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          • Will (The Other One)

            Yep. It’s also why, as good as he was in most other games, I don’t miss Pruitt. Not sure how you don’t put 9-10 in the box, and/or just sit DEs/OLBs who refuse to set the edge properly when it was obvious UF wasn’t even trying to pass.

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    • I want some of what you’re smoking. I’ll honestly be surprised if we keep it within two touchdowns. Everything Florida is superb at is where we suck (great secondary and great DL). They are just going to crowd the box and harass Eason all day with no windows to throw to on the outside. If we break double digits in points, that will be an accomplishment.

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      • Napoleon BonerFart

        They will crowd the box, unless we use formations to make that impossible. If we spread out 4 receivers, UF can’t put 8 guys in the box to stop the run. And Chubb has a fighting chance against 6 in the box, even with a crappy OL and a good DL.

        While UF is the favorite, and deservedly so, if our coaches scheme properly, we will have a chance to put up some points.

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        • dubyadee

          Yeah, but that is not the kind of offense the coaches want to run. And the coaches have already proven that they are more than willing to lose games if we can’t win them running the offense they want to run.

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      • Florida’s best win of the season, according the vaunted S&P+? Missouri.

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        • Yeah, but…🙂

          Their best performance was actually against Kentucky when they played at the 93rd percentile. Yes…Missouri is the highest rated S&P+ team they have beaten (while playing at the 65th percentile), but they have played three games at the 87th percentile or better (which are pretty awesome performances). Georgia actually played better against Tennessee than Florida (and much worse against Vandy) in that respect.

          I think you’re conflating (purposely) what S&P+ tries to measure. It doesn’t measure quality purely based on wins and losses or even strength of schedule…it tries to normalize your performances for the quality of opponent (i.e. a good team should take a bad team like Vandy to the woodshed). Florida has been consistently good this season and that is evident in their ratings. Georgia had one game (83rd percentile against UNC), two okay-ish games against Missouri and Tennesee (53rd and 68th percentiles, respectively, and a bunch of God-awful games against everybody else (1st percentile against Nichols with a high of 38th percentile against South Carolina).

          Georgia’s worst loss is against the 100th rated team in S&P+. Florida’s worst loss is against the 26th rated team. Mock Bill C’s Skynet labs at your own peril, my friend.

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          • I’m not mocking it. I think it had some valid points. I’m simply saying Florida hasn’t played a very good schedule. They’ve lost to the one team they played with a winning record.

            I think we lose this weekend, but let’s see how it goes, no? I do not believe Florida is all that great.

            We’ll see.

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  2. The other Doug

    “Florida has those terrific corners, so I expect to see plenty of single coverage. That’s a recipe for disaster if the Dawgs decide to come out in power formations and run the ball”

    If we all see it, then Smart and Co has to see it, right? I’m Munson worried.

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    • Napoleon BonerFart

      But we’ve seen it all year. And the coaches will still line up with two tight ends and run it.

      The only thing that gives me hope is that we’ve been dumb offensively mostly in games where we expected an easy win. In games that we expected a tough defense, the coaches are more likely to open up the playbook and be creative. And there’s no way they don’t expect Florida to be tough defensively.

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      • Will (The Other One)

        Well, they had a good plan from the start vs. UT. Mizzou they didn’t really start 1st down passing until behind by a bit. And I’ve blocked the Ole Miss game from my mind.

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      • The other Doug

        If they open it up again, and I hope they do, then it will be obvious that Smart has been playing the power stuff against weak opponents for the future and fighting for the W against UT and UF. He just took the ass whipping against Ole Miss.

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  3. If there was ever a game where Nauta needed to go Gronk, this is it. The opportunities should be there.

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  4. Scorpio Jones, III

    I just hope we quit all that zone blocking. 😀 And, please, Kirby, no damn visor.

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  5. Just Chuck (The Other One)

    If it comes down to special teams play, we’re dead.

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  6. JCDAWG83

    I’d love to be optimistic about this game but I can’t find any way to convince myself Florida is worse than Vandy and we will somehow score more on Florida than we did on Vandy.

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    • Russ

      How about this? We scored more on UNC, Tennessee, Sackerlina, and Missouri than we did on Vandy. Vandy was (hopefully) an outlier.

      Not that we’re anywhere close to the 2007 team, but that team needed a miracle to win at Vandy that year (last play of the game, I believe). Two weeks later, we unleashed a can on the Gators. Of course, Timmy was hurt….😉

      I mean, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

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  7. Get Sony the ball out in open space. IMHO, he is the key to the game.

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  8. PTC DAWG

    Close to 6-1, close to 1-6.,,TEE it up.

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  9. paul

    My concern is that if the Gators choose to clog the line, and who wouldn’t at this point, we’ll continue to run the same stuff, over and over and over, a la Nichols and Vandy and we’ll end up not only losing but looking bad doing it. At least in the past Georgia tended to start the season slow and get better as we went along. This year we seem to have started well and regressed as the season wears on. Lose this game and I think the players may throw in the towel. I don’t know if anyone is giving them the “was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?” speech, but from what I can see the team doesn’t appear to be buying in. Somehow, this week feels like Kirby’s last chance to salvage this season. I sure hope I’m overreacting.

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  10. Gene Simmons

    If there were ever a point in the season to “coach up” the team, this is it.
    Time to see if Kirby is worth the big bucks.

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    • Rocket Dawg

      I am not going to go as far as saying this game is a referendum on Kirby and the coaching staff but as a fan I need to see something this weekend that tells me we are turning the corner and getting better. We have had two weeks to prepare for this game and break down the film on what the Gators do offensively and defensively, there is no reason to come out and run the same old 3 TE/FB power sets that we have run over the first part of the season (unless that is what the defense “gives” us which they won’t). I need to see some wrinkles that scheme around our weakness on the offensive line and maximize our strength at RB and TE. I need our defense to shut the Gators running attack down and force Del Rio to beat us with his arm.

      If we come out and play well (a la UT) and lose a close game but look competitive for the whole 60 minutes then I’ll be ok. If we shit the bed again (a la ’14, ’15, and against Vandy/Ole Miss this year) then I doubt I will watch another game this year.

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      • This game will go a long way towards telling me something about Kirby. If S&P + is to be believed, we’ve been trending backwards all season long. It doesn’t speak highly of the coaching that your first game is your best and you have regressed the rest of the year. I’m hoping the bye week was a chance for a reset and this is where we start to see improvement.

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  11. Snoop Dawgy Dawg

    Having no grand analytical understanding of football, I’ll present some thoughts on our struggles this year on offense. To my eye, Chubb runs better in a one cut and go play call than in a shotgun spread, delay draw type style. The one just fits him better than the other. Sony is somewhat the opposite. Michel is shiftier, while Chubb can cut, historically, at full speed.

    To my mind, that’s an issue with our offense, in that Chaney just can’t seem to figure out how to get Chubb any space to work with running out of downhill plays, but he’s less effective out of the spread plays.

    If we go with the Mizzou and Vandy offense, we lose. Period. Which is try to establish an inside run game against an immovable object, with obvious run formations

    If we go with the UT gameplan, which was push the ball downfield, attack the edges, and mix in some smashmouth we have bigger (insert word for male genitalia) than you, then we can have some success. A win is still a tall task with their corners, but as I was talking about last week. If a team has good corners and likes to leave them out there on an island, you have to have a QB who can throw the WRs open to beat them. Eason can be that guy and will be that guy. My hope is he grew up the last two weeks and has become that guy.

    I don’t envy Eason his Mission Impossible this week, but we only win if he can successfully separate his receivers from the UF corners, hit the small windows, and force that defense to back away from the line of scrimmage.

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  12. Jared S.

    Georgia in 1OT 23-17.

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  13. WarD Eagle

    It’s only a matter of time all that tLent turns the corner. This brand new staff and lots of young players have half a season behind them and have had a mid season break.

    I think this is a breakout game for UGA and they lay a pretty good thumping on UF.

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    • Billy Mumphrey

      From your lips to Gawds ears

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      • Scorpio Jones, III

        Ward, I mean this will all due respect, but an Auburn fan can really understand how bad we need to turn the corner, here.

        I notice Gus has dumped his visor…so did Arkansas.

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        • WarD Eagle

          Yeah. Strange for AU. Plenty of talent, no identity. I suspect Gus would like a do-over on Clempson and might feel he could improve on the aTM game. All that sId, I’m not sold on the idea that AU is all wine and roses. I think they’ve played less talented teams lately.

          UGA is similar in that th have all the talent, but a lack of identity. That’s why I keep wondering what the team would be like with the older QB playing.

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  14. AusDawg85

    A freshman QB, a mess of an OL, no “go to” big receiver, DB’s that are toasted, a kicker who has never been under pressure, a general SNAFU drill on special teams, an OC without an identity and an HC who wants one we don’t have….

    …if there is a God, we deserve this victory as the underdog. My heart says the D scores a TD and we win a close, low scoring affair. My head says we get a beatdown in the range of 35 – 10 that includes turnovers and a missed FG or two.

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    • Scorpio Jones, III

      Aw man…Aus. I am very afraid we are just good enough to break my heart, again, and again, and again.

      I approach Saturday with trepidation and no clear hat choice.

      I have visions of Kharmic Bitchez dancing in the end zone.

      In August would you have believed how bad we need this one?

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      • AusDawg85

        Get on board with the Process and wear the visor. Stop fighting it and maybe the Kharmic fortunes will reverse.

        In August we always know we have to beat the gators. Always.

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        • Scorpio Jones, III

          You know, I actually do have a Georgia visor…are you saying….???

          What the hell, its worth a shot…even if it is not a proper hat.

          Man have you ever seen a bald-on-top guy with a visor?

          Oh, and Aus, in spite of any impression I may have created, no one, not any one, anywhere is more ready to be processed than I am. Nooooo Body!!!

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          • Nate Dawg

            Kharmatic Bitches? Damn- bammer ’12, barn ’13, nerds ’14, hillbillies ’16 – how many payments we gotta make to those A-holes?!?

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          • AusDawg85

            Here’s your Kharma….2019 CFB Championship game is in Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. A sea of red visors on the UGA side of the stadium will be very fashion forward as we cheer on Kirby’s Dawgs in such a Smart place (see what I did there?). Get the Ian Poulter visor w/ spiked hair model and you’ll look 20 years younger. Break it in now…resistance is futile in the face of #theProcess.

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  15. jt (the other one)

    TE’s and FB throws all day!

    TE down the seams and FB on wheel routes. We do that and its a whole new ball game.

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  16. I’m still very bearish on the outcome of this game especially because we still look awful on offense. 420 yards with only 16 points to show for it will do that to you. I’m just very worried that a definite mismatch in special teams is going to turn the tide. I’m sure everyone remembers the last 2 years momentum changed due to bonehead special teams plays.

    Goodness, I hope I’m wrong …

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  17. DawgPhan

    Other than UGA has recruited better than UF has for the last 5 years, there doesnt seem to be anything that tilts in our favor.

    Our QB should be better than theirs, but we managed to waste a 350 no int performance from him against Vandy.

    Our great RBs have mostly been stopped by our own coaches and play calling.

    It will probably be ugly and come down to TOs or special teams, neither of which favor UGA.

    UF could turn the ball over 100 times on saturday and I am not sure we could flip the field on them much less score points on those TOs.

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    • adam

      ‘It will probably be ugly and come down to TOs or special teams, neither of which favor UGA.”

      TOs – Do you mean timeouts, or turnovers? Nevermind, it doesn’t matter.

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  18. Cosmic Dawg

    Still cannot feel much hope for this game. Believe our freshman QB will just not have the experience and time to find the few open players to make them pay for stacking the box.

    If I am Florida, I go man coverage all day and make Eason win it with my big uglies overpowering this O line and in his face all day.

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  19. 69Dawg

    Barring an offensive miracle we are toast. Freshman QB with porous line protection, WR’s who absolutely can’t get separation, RB’s that get tackled in the back field because everybody including the cheer leaders know by the formations when we are going to run. Oh yea and add in punt return and kick return units that are good for a minimum 1 to 2 brain farts that will cost us what little field position we might have and it’s hard to smell victory.

    On defense we have a unit that plays the Georgia Way. Hold a team like Vandy or UT for the whole game then let them score at the end for the win. Frankly I would prefer a blow out than another tear your heart out last minute loss.

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  20. Coweta Dawg

    Here’s hoping that the enema that was the Vandy game thoroughly cleansed DawgNations’ collective colons and souls, which, with a bye week, puts us on track for a resounding victory on Sat. Let the Big Dawg Eat!

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  21. Hardcoredawg 93

    Three big ifs for us have a chance: 1) if we don’t do dumb shit on special teams. 2) if we don’t just try to run up the middle all game because we can’t block decent defensive fronts, and 3) if receivers don’t drop balls.

    3 big ifs .

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  22. House Money

    just roll the dice. its no lose either way

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  23. sUGArdaddy

    I just realized something today. Do you realized they’ve scored a Non-Offensive T.D (or safety) in 7 of the last 10 games vs. us and 8 of the last 14, including the last 3 and 4 of the last 5? That’s staggering.

    I am pretty sure it has at least been since the ’80s that we’ve scored one against them in this game. If you want to mark the difference in this game and all the others on the schedule and why this has been such a maddening game, that’s it.

    Think of all the punt returns, pick-sixes or scoop and scores we’ve had vs. Tech, Auburn and Tennessee in the last 20 years.

    Exactly ZERO vs. the Gators.

    Score a NOT on Saturday and we could get this thing rolling.

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