Look at Jake Fromm’s situational passing stats. He’s attempted more throws on first down than any other, so it’s not really a matter of “why don’t they throw on first down?”.
Look more carefully, though, and you should get a strong hint about what we should be asking. Here are his passer ratings, by down:
First: 188.58Second: 148.99Third: 141.31Fourth: 166.26
He’s completing over 71% of his passing attempts on first down. The question, then, isn’t why aren’t they throwing on first down. It’s why aren’t they throwing more on first down than they are.
Argh. Totally screwed the pooch on this post. Let’s start over. Passer ratings, by down:
- First: 175.82
- Second: 115.59
- Third: 187.07
- Fourth: 221.80 (Note: only two throws)
Most pass attempts came on third down, with 68, but Fromm has thrown 57 times on first down. He also hasn’t turned the ball over on any of his first down attempts. His problems, such as they are, come more on second down.
The earlier stats I posted were by quarter, not by down. What they show is that he’s been incredibly effective throwing the ball early in games and that his passing performance tails off as the game progresses. Why that’s the case may be the question worth asking.
Sorry for being an idiot on this one.
Get The Picture 
We have to throw on first more against good teams. We get away with not doing that playing the trash we play in the SEC East, but against legit teams we can’t do that. Let’s hope we learned our lesson.
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Throwing on first down works because the other team expects you to run on first down. If you throw on first down every time and the other team knows that it negates the advantage.
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“You don’t even know what a write-off is……..but they do. And they’re the ones writing it off.”
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It’s all so clear to them now:
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Derek,
We may not agree on much, but I love me some Ren and Stempy bro
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You covet my ice cream bar! I’ve had it since I was a little child!
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SAVE MY WALRUS!!!!
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Don’t wizz on the electric fence!
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After the first drive in which we ran on all but 1 first down, we threw on first down as many times as we ran on first down Saturday and got better results with the running plays. The running plays got 3 yards a clip and the passing plays got 2.
If you don’t believe me, check it out yourself:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400933913
Stats from the first 9 games have nothing to do with Saturday.
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The issue was our second down execution, which was a trainwreck all game long. In fact we often found ourselves in a nice 2nd and 6 or less situation only to derp around and leave us 3rd and 5+ or thereabouts. Hell, against a great DL like AUB 3rd and 2 is a bitch. Running it is tough and relying on a true freshman QB is, too.
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And again on second down we were worse throwing it than running it.
It’s hard to do much when your OL is getting their asses whipped and when you do get an opportunity to make a big play, you screw it up.
This was about getting beaten physically, making mental mistakes and not executing the responsibilities given. It was not a play calling was bad or predictable scenario.
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Especially with Chubb in the backfield. Every first down run with Chubb is straight up the gut….little RPO/playaction would be nice.
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Why doesn’t anybody want to actually look at the facts?
We tried to throw on first down 12 times after the first drive. (On the first drive we ran on every first down but one and scored but I guess that doesn’t matter to the couch/bleacher coordinators.)
We were 2 of 8 with 2 sacks and a fumble. Woo hoo! What kinda passer rating is that? We got more yards on the 1st down run plays than the 1st down pass plays.
This isn’t a matter of opinion. There are actual facts involved.
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You’ve posted this like 5 times this week. I think what you’re missing is that once you’re down 20, you are more likely to have to throw every down, first down included.
What everyone is getting at is that we needed to throw more on first down before the game got sideways.
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Also if you take out the final junk drive that was meaningless we ran it 12 times on first down and threw it 6 times. 2:1 against a DL like AUB isn’t going to cut it.
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Are you including the 2 sacks? Those are called pass plays. One resulted in a fumble. There were 8 first down pass attempts between the first drive and the last drive. They did not go well.
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This was ripped from the Vent, so if it’s something worthy of not being copied here feel free to delete.
Broken down further
(Listing first downs drive by drive)
First quarter
First Drive
First down – Chubb 1 run
First down – Fromm 26 pass to Godwin
First down – Michel 7 run
First and goal – Michel no gain
Second Drive
First down – Chubb 6 run
First down – Michel 1 run
Third Drive
First down – Chubb 5 run
Second quarter
Fourth drive
First down – Fromm incomplete pass (Ridley)
Fifth drive
First down – Hardman 7 run
Sixth Drive
First down – Michel 2 run
First down – Fromm sack
Seventh Drive
First down – Michel 1 run
Third quarter
Eighth Drive
First down – Michel 6 run
First down – Fromm sack
Ninth Drive
First down – Chubb no gain
First down – Fromm incomplete
Tenth Drive
First down – Chubb 3 run
Fourth quarter
11th Drive
First down – Fromm incomplete
12th Drive
First down – incomplete
First down – incomplete
First down – Fromm 4 run
First down – incomplete
First down – incomplete
First down – 14 TD pass to Ridley
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If you look at the 2nd through 11th drive on NO occasion did we throw on first down and get anything but a TO or a punt. Never once did we move the chains after a first down pass attempt.
I know there are some that want to believe that the gap between success and failure could be found within their own encyclopedic knowledge of football and you’re entitled to flatter yourselves as long as you’d like, but the fact is that you’re FOS.
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I’m FOS? Thanks?
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It wasn’t directed to anyone specifically. It was directed at anyone who thinks a liberal application of their own football knowledge would have mattered to the outcome Saturday. Its doubly ironic that there are those who think first down passing would have been a panacea when in fact it was tried and it failed miserably.
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While I’m not as smart as Derek, that drive chart would seem to support my original post.
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Only if you’re an illiterate.
The drive chart shows that every first down pass from drive two to ten ended in a TO or a punt. That’s 10 drives, 5 first down passes and not one first down followed a 1st down pass. Not one.
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Yeah like on the first drive? Yeah we fucked that up only throwing once on first down. Idiots! We only got 7 points out of that drive.
If you look at the play by play, there were plenty of first down passes while the game was not out of hand. Sacks and incompletions mainly. We only completed 3 passes on first down all day and we tried to pass on first down 13 times.
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I honestly don’t know what your point is.
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That probably encapsulates my point better than I can make it myself.
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No, I don’t think it does. Your argument that UGA had trouble passing the ball doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t have tried or that they shouldn’t have tried it more. It means they got their ass kicked at what they were attempting to do.
That doesn’t mean that they were wrong for trying, especially given Auburn’s strategy/ability to shut down the run at all costs.
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They FUCKING did try to pass on first down!! Its been shown repeatedly that they tried that and its been shown that they consistently failed to do anything with it.
Other than the first and last drive there is NOT ONE FUCKING TIME that a first down pass did not result in anything except a TO or a punt. NOT ONE FIRST DOWN was generated between the first and last drives by passing on first down. NOT ONE!
That’s drive 4, 6, 8, 9 and 11. Or put another way 5 of 10 drives came to a screeching halt after a first down pass. We at least got a couple of first downs after running on first down in those 10 drives.
And there are people saying, “if we’d only thrown on first down.” The reason we can’t have nice things in this country is that people are completely resistant to facts and they’d rather rely on their own biases, feelings, emotions, conventional wisdom, group think or just about anything except going back and seeing whether the facts support their position. The stupid is incredibly frustrating.
(BTW: I’m not saying they shouldn’t have tried to pass on first down. I’m saying they did and it didn’t work.)
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Jesus Christ. You understand how a linear concept of time works, right? Drives 6, 8, 9, and 11 were AFTER Auburn had it rolling and the game was sideways.
Go back and read my original post with that in mind—of course they threw on first down on those drives, they were already losing.
The argument is that had they thrown on first down on earlier drives (say 1, 2, or 3 for instance), then maybe they would have had more success in getting Auburn’s D a little off balance.
Probably not, but maybe. But your currently screaming into the wind without understanding my original point.
I’m done.
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They did throw on first down on drive 1. One time. The other first downs were run plays. They scored a TD. What a bunch of morons.
And you left off drive 4. Why?
You have drives 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, and 12 that all featured a first down throw.
When drive 4 started the game was 7 – 9. When drive 6 started the score was 7 – 9.
So half of the first 6 drives featured a first down throw.
I’m missing your point because you don’t have one.
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I was working on a response to Derek but you said all there is to say. I would add one thing thanks to the Senator linking the cfb stats. Look at Fromm’s quarterback rating drop from 170 to 100 when we are behind.
One could deduce that we are much better at throwing when the defense is not expecting it. Normally that would be on a first down.
And as I mentioned on the vent… we are really only talking about a half a dozen or so plays Saturday where if we had completed some first down passes rather than sending Chubb into the pile… things might have looked different… penalties and turnovers notwithstanding.
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I see that you are completely impervious to facts.
We had 5 drives that ended shortly after a 1st down pass. Why do you think more drives with a first down pass would have magically transformed into successful drives?
If the times we passed on first down failed miserably 5 of 7 times, why do you think doing more of that would have changed anything?
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An incomplete pass on first down has a greater effect on a defense than a one or two yard gain running into a stacked box. The problem is that Georgia struggles too much on first down runs against stiff fronts. Try something else.
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We did, nothing worked….
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Of course, but what did we do after getting stuffed on 1st down? Often it was try it again, get stuffed and now facing 3rd and long. Why give your self one passing opportunity to make a 1st down when you are behind the chains this badly? Seems like you double your chances by throwing on both 2nd and 3rd when you are second and 8-12 yards to go. (I realize you cannot do this every time, but I would do it more than not. Very frustrating to see us play into this time after time lessening our chances to succeed.)
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The stats throwing the ball on second down are even worse than fusrt. We threw it 8 times and ran it 12 on second down. We did better when we ran it.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400933913
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The point is, if you are 2nd and long, and getting the results of 1.7 yards per run attempt, taking two shots to make the first down via the pass is two times better than waiting until 3rd down. If you do choose to run it, don’t attempt to go with a dive play between the tackles (misdirection, toss sweep, jet sweep.) We looked brain dead thinking something would change. Bring in Swift and attempt to throw a swing pass.
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Go to the play by play and see how many times that scenario played out and how many times we threw and ended up in 3rd and long vs. the times we ran and ended up in 3rd and long.
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I don’t know for sure, but it seems like our play flexibility with Chubb in the backfield is limited. I feel like sony and the others benefit from the defense having to guess more because there’s more potential for passing when another back is in the game. To some extend I feel for Chubb because of this. Any accuracy to that?
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I agree against Auburn/Alabama/anyone we see going forward.
We have to find a way to get more than one of Chubb/Sony/Swift on the field at the same time and attack side to side with jet sweeps, swing passes, tosses, etc., then the inside runs.
I don’t know how much of LSU’s offense we can install in a few weeks, but that will probably be our best chance going forward. We’re going to have to make the DLs we face run a lot early, then maybe we can play Chubb-ball late.
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The other questions is….WHY DIDN’T RIDLEY CATCH THE BALL!!! WHY!!! WHY!!!
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Partly because Fromm threw a poor pass too far out to the left. Ridley still could have caught it but Fromm didn’t do him any favors with where he placed the ball.
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No, it certainly wasn’t a beauty that hit him in stride. But he could easily have adjusted to make that catch, any decent receiver could 90% of the time. I feel he tried to make the catch and score rather than just making the catch and going down. We wouldn’t have made the TD on that play, but it looked like a better decision. He knew he had the TD and opted to try the lower percentage technique to me. Just a bad decision, imo.
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I think Fromm and Ridley were both to blame. I think we are agreeing.
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To the extent that a pass which didn’t require him to stretch/layout yes. To say the location of the pass meant it wasn’t going to lead to a TD, but should have been caught for a long gain is my point. I would have settled for the completion but felt Ridley was going for the home run and that is why it failed completely. In other words, Fromm is the reason is wasn’t a TD, Ridley is the reason it wasn’t at least caught for a nice gain.
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It was a case of Touch in that instance. Five more degrees of loft and I think Ridley scores the 6. But like most everything that materialized, the minor missteps proved very costly.
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Everybody is armchair quarterbacking, but I think our time is better spent wondering why we did not match up physically Sat night. Talent? Coaching? Conditioning? How-When does this improve? I am more worried about this than whether we should run or pass on first down. We have to dominate in the trenches to win the SEC.
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The offensive line hopefully will become much more physical and talented in 2018 and especially in 2019. Pittman is doing a great job recruiting but it takes time. As they say it’s all on paper, but there is a lot of young talent on the O line in Athens and more is coming. We started a true freshman and rs freshman on the O line Saturday against Auburn which is not an ideal situation but it’s the best we have now.
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Agreed. And I think it sort of all starts with the O-Line (assuming your D-Line is confirmed to be good, which ours is through a 9 game sample size). I’m a big believer in the zero-sum, vicious cycle aspect of the flow of a football game. The O-Line is the lynch pin in that cycle because if they can have enough success to give your D-Line the rest it needs, no game will get away from you. Our D-Line didn’t play it’s greatest, but it at least bowed up and held them to 3 FGs instead of TDs early. Once the offense and special teams started screwing up and/or getting mauled, the dam broke and the Defense wore out.
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2019
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It would not have mattered who the QB was last Saturday….the problem is adjustments. Got to give the players a chance…
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I might be wrong, but I think that the stats you are showing indicate his rating during each quarter.
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Crap, you’re right. I’ll fix.
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So the REAL question is, “why aren’t we throwing more in the first quarter?” 😉
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yeah and why would we ever throw the ball on 2nd down.
The whole team takes a dip in the second quarter. Passing the ball on 2nd down in the second quarter is a waste of a play.
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Throw on 2nd down? That’s crazy! Everybody knows we run on second down……….
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maths are hard, it’s been a tough week for all of us. Don’t sweat it, man, everything gonna be irie! 😉
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He did turn it over on a first down attempt. It was a fumble and not a pick, but it was a TO.
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Not interested in stats.
Stats come from skill and execution.
Fromm came out of Houston County behind Watson re passing stats. So he is alleged to be a solid QB and passer. Eason can spin the ball. Richt thought so too. 93,000 in Kirby’s first spring game thought so. Where did all this go. Remember Watson ended up at Clemson. Who got their ass kicked one year in a bowl. But since then they have laid the wood to a lot of team and now have a lock each year on the playoffs. What offense do they run.
What offense does Auburn run.
I am not yet sold Fromm can pass in SEC. But most think he can, so I concede. Eason can. Eason sees more, and gets the ball out quicker. He does not hold the ball.
But if you want to put the QB in a pocket then he has to be up on his footwork to move enough to find the lanes. Fromm does not.
They are both shotgun QBs. They are built for the spread.
So can Kirby explain how his run oriented offense gets locked down by Auburn with 4 down linemen. Factor in how they walked 4 more into box prior to snap. How is your playbook going to handle that. It does not. Thus the thinking if a repeat of teams in SECCG Auburn beats the hell out of us again. And Bama / Georgia would be dull to watch since neither has an offense…well, Bama does to a point.
Chaney built his offense around Chubb and Michel with a so-so Oline. For awhile they got by because UT and UF had coaching issues. It caught them on the Plains. Kirby has said as much. Read his words closely.
He would be wise to build his team around the spread offense. Why? First he can not defend it. Look back when he was at Bama against Clemson and Auburn. Second nearly all high school teams in Georgia run that offense or some variation. Another thing, TEs are important in the spread. Georgia nullifies theirs. Where were they Saturday re passing, pass blocking, or run blocking. Think not, then some of you dudes need to go to some of the playoff games or watch on Friday night. The spread is not a fun & gun. It is a power running offense. If Georgia had trouble with Auburn, more than likely they will Saturday against UK. So be prepared Dawg fans for a tough game on Saturday.
I would like to believe old Mel and Kirby can completely shut down UK’s offense. History says no.
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You’re absolutely right… we aren’t asking the right question.
The real question we need to ask is how do we improve the blocking of our Offensive Line? How do we prevent the center of that line (Center/LG/RG) from getting blown up?
Is it time to insert Ben Cleveland into the LG position to increase our size and strength? IMO, he’s ready. He’s played in every game and manhandled his opponents.
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Interesting post. Fromm’s passer ratings aside, Georgia needs to have more trust in Fromm and allow him to throw more on running downs (1st, 2nd, 3rd and short) to keep defenses honest. Chaney at times gets a little predictable. However, who knows how the Auburn game would’ve turned out if Ridley caught the deep ball and scored and if Fromm had enough time to make the throw on the flea flicker. Have to be able to execute when the right play IS called.
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