When stats tell you what you already thought you knew…
![Screenshot_2019-12-27 DawgStats on Twitter Run Pass 1st Downs (Pass Rush SR) Vandy 21 12 (62% 58%) Mur St 21 14 (52% 77%) A[...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/screenshot_2019-12-27-dawgstats-on-twitter-run-pass-1st-downs-pass-rush-sr-vandy-21-12-62-58-mur-st-21-14-52-77-a....png?w=500)
![Screenshot_2019-12-27 DawgStats on Twitter UK 19 4 (47% 25%) UF 16 11 (31% 36%) MIZZ 20 6 (35% 33%) AU 16 10(25% 40%) TAMU [...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/screenshot_2019-12-27-dawgstats-on-twitter-uk-19-4-47-25-uf-16-11-31-36-mizz-20-6-35-33-au-16-1025-40-tamu-....png?w=500)
![Screenshot_2019-12-27 DawgStats on Twitter Through USC Game, Dawgs rushed on average 19 attempts on 1st down with a SR of 5[...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/screenshot_2019-12-27-dawgstats-on-twitter-through-usc-game-dawgs-rushed-on-average-19-attempts-on-1st-down-with-a-sr-of-5....png?w=500)
![Screenshot_2019-12-27 DawgStats on Twitter Run Pass 2nd Downs (Pass Rush SR) Vandy 13 7 (77% 43%) Mur St 14 6 (71% 50%) Ark[...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/screenshot_2019-12-27-dawgstats-on-twitter-run-pass-2nd-downs-pass-rush-sr-vandy-13-7-77-43-mur-st-14-6-71-50-ark....png?w=500)
![Screenshot_2019-12-27 DawgStats on Twitter UK 14 3 (50% 0%) UF 16 6 (31% 33%) MIZZ 14 8 (29% 25%) AU 16 5(38% 40%) TAMU 13 [...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/screenshot_2019-12-27-dawgstats-on-twitter-uk-14-3-50-0-uf-16-6-31-33-mizz-14-8-29-25-au-16-538-40-tamu-13-....png?w=500)
![Screenshot_2019-12-27 DawgStats on Twitter So Dawgs were gaining less on 1st Down rushes, leaving longer 2nd down yards to [...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/screenshot_2019-12-27-dawgstats-on-twitter-so-dawgs-were-gaining-less-on-1st-down-rushes-leaving-longer-2nd-down-yards-to-....png?w=500)
If you want the tl;dr version:
- Defensive coordinators adjusted to what Georgia’s offense was doing.
- Instead of adjusting to that, Georgia doubled down on its offensive playcalling, with even less success.
- That left the offense in longer second down situations, which it responded to by calling more running plays, again with less success.
If you want to understand why Fromm’s season declined in the second half, start with that.
Pulling this straight out of my ass and nothing more, I get the feeling that Kirby was scarred by the South Carolina loss more than we thought. The heartfelt lesson he took from that game was that he wasn’t going to let turnovers beat him again this season, so he went pure “there are three things that can happen when you throw the ball and two of them are bad” afterwards. (And, yeah, if you sense a certain 2015-like undertone to that, you’re not alone.)
That worked, until it didn’t.
It’s water under the bridge now, unless Smart thinks it’s still the best way to win the Sugar Bowl. Or the 2020 season.
Get The Picture 
Don’t forget the comment that Andrew Thomas made after the Carolina game that it wasn’t Jake’s fault that he kept checking into the inside zone cause that is what he was coached to do. I can see how opposing defensive coordinators realized that if they gave Jake a certain look that he would make that check at the line… then they knew he would run inside so that’s what they bet the farm on… and it worked. The fact that Coley let this continue for multiple quarters is not a good look. The fact that Kirby let Coley and Jake do it is just as bad.
Change is coming on offense. We just don’t know exactly how or how much. Next week is going to be interesting.
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Kirby “let” Coley and Jake do it??? Must’ve been the same way Col. Jessup “let” Keifer Sutherland and those other 2 dudes give the Code Red to Santiago, right???
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You’re goddamn right he did!!
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He can’t handle the truth.
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Sure… cause everybody knows Kirby has nothing to do with the offense. And what the hell does he know about defense. The witness is excused.
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Kirby let the South Carolina game affect the rest of the season. I didn’t need to see stats to see that. I saw it with my own two eyes. Other than the FU game, the offense looked beyond 2015 constipated at times.
If he lets that game affect the rest of his career at Georgia, maybe he’s not the detail-oriented, introspective person we all thought he was 2 years ago.
Kirby should have a burning of that South Carolina game tape on the outdoor practice field. Everything that could go wrong went wrong … and we should have won the game anyway.
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Didn’t he adjust back for the LSU game?
Maybe the heartfelt lesson was: against less talented teams I’m not going to let turnovers beat me, which is a slightly more nuanced view and possibly more accurate?
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Or maybe UGA threw the ball more against LSU because it had to after it fell behind.
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Plus with a hurt Swift, and knowing to compete with LSU and that high powered offense we would have to score more than 20 points.
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He did try to adjust back. Also opened the Tech game with three straight (easy) passes that were not successful. But by that time, the cake was baked. We should have been doing that all season long so that it wasn’t a foreign concept to the team when they needed to do it.
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Kirby has painted himself into a corner with the O. Coley is an excellent recruiter and wasn’t a bad WR coach. But it appears he’s going down in flames as an OC for the third time (FSU, Miami). My guess (er, hope) is Coley gets quietly demoted.
Replacing Chaney, who I was happy to see leave, but had decades of experience, with Hartley, who has essentially no experience, was another blunder. Unless Hartley suddenly turns into the next Don Coryell my hope is we get a QB coach/OC with some street cred.
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Coley wasn’t a good WR coach either.
Hartley looks like a pedophile.
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I’m tanned, rested, and ready!
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You know, that thought did cross my mind yesterday. Luckily it was a fleeting thought
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Hartley always looks like he just came out of the shower and is still wet (he apparently still is, behind the ears) just an old southern cliche, i think!!!
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And besides so much 1st and 2nd down running it was pretty much the same point of attack where the defenses were attacking, the A and B gaps. Also the edges were getting into the tackles because they weren’t being threatened. Kirby and the staff sold themselves on this bill of goods. They obviously thought the OLine and RBs would out talent every defensive scheme.
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Not to be rude Blut but Georgia came out throwing in the SEC Championship. They weren’t behind when their first two passes were dropped. Not sure what your question really helps except to provide snark.
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OMG!!1!11! THEY CAME OUT THROWING ON THE FIRST PLAY!!! THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING!!!
Snark better there?
Look, if you don’t want to believe the regular season played out the way it did, be my guest. And if you want to believe Georgia’s offense was ready and able to make a complete break from the previous seven games, go, dog, go. A couple of early pass attempts didn’t change what Georgia wanted to do against LSU. A banged up Swift and a game that got out of hand did.
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Turnovers do seem to send CKS into a “hunker in the bunker” strategy.
In the National Championship game against ‘Bama, the quirky interception after a ball bounced in the air off of a lineman’s helmet seemed to be the catalyst of going conservative for the loss.
Can’t say for sure, but was that the strategic turning point of that game?
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I don’t know about strategic, but it was the moment that I knew the football gods were not going to let us win.
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“Football gods”… synonym for “Officials”.
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Touché
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True (LSU)…he didn’t trust the passing game after the SC because he had no receivers most all year. Hard to have a high scoring offense without receivers, you’re limited.
Play calling wasn’t our issue, it was the receivers or lack of…. ALL season long.
If anyone wants to fault Kirby or Coley, that was it (lack of receivers).
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True here but the answer to no receivers can’t be running up the gut over and over again on 1st and 2nd down and come up 2nd and 3rd and long all day. That’s playing straight into your weakness…no receivers. At least run outside occasionally.
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I agree with you, but I really do think Kirby thought he was playing to his team’s strength by running behind the offensive line. What he was really doing was making it harder for the strength of his team to do its job. From the South Carolina game on, we faced defenses who put 10 or 11 guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It’s impossible to run against a 6-man box with both safeties that close to the point of attack.
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perimeter blocking??…who knows. Not sure how many runs were made to the outside last year, or what kind of defense the opponent was in when they did or didn’t.
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I’ll put it on lack of development of said receivers. And Robertson hasn’t equalled his Cal freshman stats yet in the total of his UGA career. It’s not like Landers, Simmons and company were a bunch of walk-ons. These guys were all highly recruited and we had to beat out Bama, Auburn and Florida for them. Either our talent evaluation, our player motivation, or out coaching development needs work. One or two guy missing, okay. An entire position group sucking? Not okay.
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probably a little of both, all these guys know how to catch coming in. Mostly between the ears (footsteps,nerves & etc.) as to why they are not making plays.
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Georgia: Easy team to defend.
Run downs: DLs swallow the blocks, LBs read the back, weakside LB or safety crashes to the back, don’t worry about the QB run or contain, LBs cheat to the inside if #3 is in the game, cheat to the outside if #4 is in the game.
Pass downs: Man up, safety or LB free to blitz, don’t worry about the middle third, don’t worry about spying the QB, don’t worry about weakside contain.
Get the punt return team ready.
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Exactly. So, is the coaching staff so incompetent that they didn’t see/know this? It’s far more likely that’s all the team could handle.
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But who is supposed to prepare the team? I have a hard time believing the #2, #1 and #3 recruiting classes aren’t bringing in the right talent.
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We stink on every down, every game, every year!
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Piss on the bowl games. I’m going fishing.
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What kind of fishing do you do Ranger?
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Gurkha Dawg, I fish mostly to eat these days. An occasional 2-3 lb bass to filet and blacken, slab crappie or shellcracker to fry or blacken for a sammich and small catfish out of my creek for frying. The wife likes to ride up to Andy’s trout farm for a day trip when we’re in the mood for grilling rainbow trout. Yeah, that’s cheating but it’s fun and productive.
I fish in the Keys mainly for mangrove snapper. Yellowtail, mutton and hog snapper are a bonus. My shoulders are fucked so I cheer the wife and gaytard friends on as they fight sailfish and other big uns. The liberal Florida crowd haven’t been too hip on discussing sports or politics the last few trips.
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I have great memories of Andy’s trout farm. When the kids were small, we would get a cabin around Dillard and go to Andy’s. The kids would have a great time catching the trout, while I drank beer and laughed. We would then go back to the cabin and the wife would fry them up or grill them. Good times.
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I wish the coaches had done enough to win all of the regular season games after USCe. Undefeated Novembers (Florida-Tech) are rare enough for us (since 1982 we’ve had 4: ‘07, ‘11, ‘12, ‘18) that i bet if we had one in 2019 that people wouldn’t bitch and say how much better they themselves are at coaching than our actual coaches are.
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Yep, rare indeed. Personal definitely affects play calling and game planning.
Good news is, a teak here and there for next year and this is a different team on offense. I believe the defense could be even better.
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Personnel
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Personnel…..
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We did go undefeated in November. We beat UF on 11/2, Mizzou on 11/9, Auburn on 11/16, T A & M on 11/23 and Tech on 11/30. So add 2019 to the list.
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I’m no expert- I have enjoyed digging deep into the stats and amateur analytics and really appreciate the Senator’s support and you guys reading my stuff.
But, it does seem that defenses could defend everything UGA wanted to do with a crowded box and basic coverages.
With below national average Success Rates on early downs put a lot of pressure on the defense.
And they certainly rose to the occasion- but we had no chance against LSU. The Defense has players to take “next man up” mentality. But, not on offense- simply no replacement for Swift and we were demonstrably diminished in WR corps without Cager
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Why did this persist for 5-6 games straight? with all the data analytics and film available inquiring minds want to know.
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I think that
#1 UGA was winning…albeit it was ugly
#2 Staff honestly thought that the offense could erupt and get on a run
#3 It was a successful season and we kicked off 2nd Half of SECCG alive for a Natty – so, Hard to complain too much about where the program is.
We’ve lost 1 SEC East game in 3+ seasons. 2-0 v Notre Dame and on brink of 3rd straight T3 class.
2020 and 2021 are the seasons that seem to defining CKS. Part of me wants to see Fromm move on. Part of me wants him to go 16-1 v Gatos Vols Plainsmen and Jackets
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Fromm wasn’t very good this year so it makes it difficult to pinpoint much of anything about the offense. The chicken or the egg dilemma keeps coming up for me.
Did we kinda hold him and the passing game back because he didn’t look good in practice or did he really struggle at times in game because we seemingly held him back? Did he struggle because of coaching or was it something within himself? I’ve never though he was a Burrow but I’ve always thought he was good enough to win championships with. He just went out and made plays early in his career. Now, it seems that his mechanics and his head are kinda off. Sure, young WRs and all of that but he had bad passes and reads from the first game to the last, too. There concerning thing for me is that he never got better. We opened up the last 2 games passing and Fromm missed wide open guys. Fromm needed/needs help.
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Stats are results, not causes. Check the team psychology. Pre-USCe we beat ND in a huge national interest game, team was full of swagger and playing that way. Kirby had a problem in the locker room with focus. Played USCe tight and could handle the loss to Boom to grab his team’s attention and keep them on edge going into SECCG. Stats suffered, but winning ugly was all he wanted. Injuries and an LSU juggernaut (Burrows did win the Heisman for a reason) was just too much for where this team was by early December. Sh*t happens. Reload, control the locker room better this offseason on take another run. This is also why I doubt he dumps Coley…the problem in Kirby’s evaluation was more with the player’s minds than coaching schemes.
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We’ve been saying control the locker room better since Chubb, Michel, Carter and Bellamy left. Eventually that’s a head coach’s problem.
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“Pulling this straight out of my ass and nothing more,” Hey, it works for Tucker Carlson….are you testing for your Fox interview?
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No, just looking to see if I could trigger your typical attempt at wit.
Mission accomplished.
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Golly gee, nice to know your whole spiel is predicated on the idea I will respond in kind. Mark Richt was right, you know?
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Pickens, Blaylock, Cager, Robertson, Landers, Simmons. Pick 4.
Are Landers and Simmons two of our best 4 receiver options?
How many teams did Georgia face with enough DBs to cover just Pickens, Blaylock and Robertson while dealing with run reads?
We keep blaming the WR group. And, in the bluntest terms possible: Bullshit
The offense did a piss poor job playing to anyone’s strengths in the passing game. Coley and Smart largely took a bunch of very talented recruits and square peg/round holed them.
And no, you don’t have to go full Air Raid. This idea that we can run Swift a bunch OR fling it all over misses the point. A coaching staff getting paid millions with elite recruits can find a way to do both at a championship level.
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This is where I’m at. There is a systemic problem in the on field coaching staff. All of these players were already the best we have ever had at Georgia. All they needed to do was grow as a unit and it never really happened. Sure, its just my opinion and I will never know if Kirby makes strong moves to correct anything outside of him hiring Dan Enos.
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If you refer to the SECCG this year, Cager (all game) and Pickens (1st half) weren’t available, and by the second half, Blaylock wasn’t available, so yeah, they were two of our 4 best receivers. Maybe Jackson or Bush?
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Here is a pretty good article on recruiting versus coaching. Probably old, but nonetheless, a good read.
I believe our issue was more on the receivers, but understand what you are saying. It would not have helped with LSU, but definitely would have with SC. One less loss and a closer game with LSU…who knows:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/hot/_/id/9395142
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…“there are three things that can happen when you throw the ball and two of them are bad”….
That predates 2015 by a lot – pretty sure that is a verbatim quote from Coach Vince Dooley, circa 1970. And there is some truth to it.
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2015 was a reference to Richt taking control of the offensive scheme after Florida.
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I knew that, but just pointing out that it is deep in our genetic makeup as a team. Hell, Wally Butts may have had the same idea.
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Wally Butts never expressed that idea. Butts was an innovator in the passing game. The NFL’s west coast offense traces back to Butts.
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I believe the quote is attributed to Darrell Royal.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/04/pass-3-things/amp/
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I’m thinking Woody Hayes. Royal probably stole it.
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Woody_Hayes
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If it were “3 things can happen when an opposing player intercepts a pass in front of you and 2 of them are bad,” I would agree with Hayes.
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Actually there is no truth to it. There are multiple bad things that can happen when a QB drops back to pass and all of them are bad except one. Aside from incomplete or or an interception, the QB can get sacked for a big loss, the QB can fumble, the D can strip the QB and run it back for a TD, you name the others..,…
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I don’t see Kirby changing.
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