Will second time be the charm?

Football Outsiders:

Bennett is probably not quite as good as his numbers (10.1 yards per attempt, 27 TD, 7 INT) indicate, and we saw why when Georgia met Alabama—their first top-15 opponent of the season by the most recent rankings. Like any quarterback, Bennett isn’t as good under pressure (7.9 yards per attempt, 4 TD, 3 INT), and the Tide produced a little more of that than usual (28.3% of dropbacks to Georgia’s season average of 25.0%).

But what proved to be the Bulldogs’ undoing on offense wasn’t the Alabama front seven; it was the secondary. On non-screen pass attempts, Bennett was downright impressive this season, averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with 22 TD and 7 INT. PFF graded him better on those plays than on screen passes, and his non-screen numbers are surprisingly close to Heisman Trophy finalists CJ Stroud (10.1 yards per attempt, 41 TD, 6 INT) and Kenny Pickett (9.1 yards per attempt, 36 TD, 6 INT). But Alabama tore Bennett apart on these more difficult attempts: he went 20 for 41 for 263 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, one touchdown, and two interceptions. It was surprising stuff from a pass defense that had, to that point, not really looked all that great: Alabama’s secondary ranks 13th in EPA per pass, 47th in success rate, and 46th in havoc rate. All of those figures have soared recently as a result of overpowering both Bennett and Desmond Ridder (17 for 32, 144 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) in their last two games.

How much of that do we chalk up to general improvement on the part of Alabama and how much to making the Georgia offense one-dimensional after the offensive onslaught that put the Dawgs in a two-touchdown hole from which they never recovered?


Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

17 responses to “Will second time be the charm?

  1. mp

    I know Alabama has some injuries at corners but I’m having a hard time finding if those players now out played in SECCG.


  2. gastr1

    It’s seriously concerning because Alabama isn’t any great shakes in the secondary. Arkansas threw the ball all over them. It unfortunately proved the doubters re: Bennett & the problems throwing the ball when the defense–any defense, apparently–knows a throw is coming.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. MudCat's Mechanic

    I want to be optimistic that Stetson can overcome whatever mind funk he seems to have against bammer. I really do. The Munson in me is a pessimist through and through. I guess we will see tomorrow night.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Gaskilldawg

      Another option is to let the Dooley in you come out.

      Let me explain. After Dooley retired in 1989 there were, predictably, many books and videos about Dooley and his success at Georgia. Almost all included intervwith former players. The consistent, actually unanimous, comment by former players was that Dooley made them confident in themselves and made them always believe that they were going to win.
      Dooley poormouthed to manage fan expectations. With the team he convinced them that they would win.
      I can’t keep my “inner Dooley” suppressed. Dawgs win.

      Liked by 5 people

  4. The decision was made officially 2 months ago. I’m bought in to the coaches’ opinion that SBIV gives us the best chance to win right now (regardless of whether he’s the most talented QB on the roster). If he plays well and we win tomorrow night, he will be forever a Bulldog legend. If we don’t and he doesn’t, he’ll be forever regarded as a DGD who brought us to the brink and wasn’t expected to do that.

    I’m still Munson-y about tomorrow night because I’m not sure we can control the game on both sides of the ball for 60 minutes to play on our terms. I’m really hoping (damn her) that my gut is wrong.

    Liked by 2 people

    • gastr1

      I’ve bought in too but I still wish we could bring in Daniels for 3rd & long plays or when we’re down by two scores. Not realistic of me, I know, as it’s never going to happen…just a wish.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. biggusrickus

    The secondary didn’t have much to do with the Cincinnati game. Alabama lived in their backfield. Whether or not Georgia can exploit it tomorrow night remains to be seen, but the defense performing up to their usual standard is probably more important.

    Liked by 4 people

  6. It’s going to be the Dawgs night. Not as dominant as the Orange Bowl but think we will largely be in control and finally get it done. Dawgs on top, 36-26.

    However, I am concerned about getting hosed continually be the refs like we did in ‘18.

    Liked by 3 people

  7. Dawgs kick the shit out of Bama. Saban’s boys got big heads now and there is no cure for that except a loss. I don’t think it’s gonna be close TBH.

    Liked by 6 people

  8. Only an idiot would want to play QB at UGA. We sit 2 5* and 1 4* for this crap?